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Wednesday, 16 January 2019

6:00 Kempton Racing Tips (16th January)


Madrinho is 3rd top rated and has a good jockey booking so could make the frame, Treacherous hasnt shown much in 2018 and may need further, Princely hasnt any course form and only a slow time from Chelmsford so may struggle here, Anonymous John is my 2nd top rated using a 2017 time and has only ran once over this c/d since that year and is versatile with its racing tactics, Little Palaver is my top rated and could get to the front here from stall 3 and if leading should prove hard to catch, Full Intention hasnt any distance form on the allweather tracks but a fast time on good to firm going on turf points to it probably taking to this surface and therefore a danger, Hello Girl needs to improve timewise to be competitive in this race, Mont Kiara hasnt done enough timewise in the last 2 years to win this race, Rock Of Estonia runs as though a shorter distance would suit it better than todays distance, Miracle Works hasnt a time to make my top 4 ratings and is a maiden after 8 runs and cant see why that should change here, Soar Above is usually staying on at the finish at this distance but maybe too late to get competitive in this race, Global Melody hasnt any form on this surface and distance but would be 3rd top rated if it can reproduce its Southwell time on this different surface. 

SUMMARY: My selection LITTLE PALAVER 7/1 is a front running sort and in the make-up of this race it could lead and gain control of the rails and attempt to lead all the way, the 7lb claiming apprentice has a decent 19% win rate for this stable and the claim ought to swing things into its favour. 

Little Palaver 11/1 1st (DHT)


Only 6 runners here and its maybe a race-best left alone as there's negatives and positives about all of them, Bernies Boy comes out joint top rated and the apprentices 7lb claim should move it top rated on its own but the apprentice is 0-38 for this stable which puts me off but never say never, so Doc Sportello is the other joint top rated but only has 7% and 5% win rates on the trainer/jockey stats but if pushed might be my bet at 7/1, Al Asef’s trainer has a 22% win rate here with their older horses, Peggys Angel may prefer a shorter trip and the trainer has a poor 1-51 record at this course, King Robert maybe better on a slower surface and isnt of any value as the 5/4 favourite, Gold Hunter could be dangerous if able to repeat its best time on grass.

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