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Friday, 15 February 2019

2:40 Lingfield Racing Tips (16th February)


On paper this looks a nice class 2 race but its bloody hard to be confident when I'm trying to pinpoint the winner and there's 4 of the 8 runners that I think could win this race, Alsvinder is 3rd top rated on c/d times but this one's trainer has another runner in the race which could do better if the trier of the pair, Merhoob is 2nd top rated on c/d times and top-rated using a time from Chelmsford last year but the jockey is 0-14 for the stable on its older horses, Raucous is 2nd top using a Chelmsford time and hasn't run here before and this one's trainer has a good win record here but the jockey is 1-25 for the stable's runners and 0-14 on their older horses, the top rated on this c/d is GULLIVER 6/1 who looks the safest option in the race but does have to break a fairly long, 14, losing run. I do think the winner will come from the 4 I've mentioned and it could pay to dutch all of them but whatever way I go my stakes will be kept low. 

Gulliver 6/1 3rd


With 6 runners the prices won't be great but the 2 in the race that have been known to lead look as though they will be setting it up for a finishing type and the 2 I will be looking to back are SOMETHING LUCKY who is my original top rated but only 1lb above ITS ALL A JOKE 5/1 and this one's trainer has a good 21% win rate at this course who could be the strongest finisher in the race and becomes my top rated when you take into consideration the apprentices 7lb claim and an 11% win rate for an apprentice is quite good, i will be backing the latter as my main bet but will have a covering bet on the other selection just in case the apprentice doesn't get things right. 

It's All A Joke 4/1 1st + EX £20.40
Something Lucky 5/1 2nd 


Only 7 runners with a couple of known front-runners, the bottom weight Rock Of Estonia is my joint 3rd top rated but can find this distance too far if there's a fast early pace, Treacherous is the other joint 3rd top rated and likes to track the leaders, the topweight Rose Berry is 2nd top rated and its another that can find the distance too far if the early pace is really fast and I think my top rated LITTLE PALAVER 5/1 can set a pace fast enough to cause the rest of the field problems to catch it and hopefully it will lead all the way and the booked apprentice jockey who claims a valuable 7lb’s has a good 20% win ratio for this stable with a 6-30 record and an even better, 22%, record with the stables older horses at 4-18 and will be my nap bet of the day.

Little Palaver 10/1 6th

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