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Thursday, 21 February 2019

4:10 Southwell Racing Tips (21st February)

SOUTHWELL 4.10 

A nice 10 runner class 4 sprint to start my day with a well balanced field, 4 front running types, 5 that like to track the leaders and 1 hold up type but this one wont get home if the early pace is really fast as it looks likely here especially with my top rated being a possible pace setter, the front running Angel Palanes is 4th on my list and drawn in stall 8 which might be a problem with the other 3 likely leaders drawn inside of it, Zylan is 3rd top but this one might need this run for fitness so I doubt it will win here, Crosse Fire 6/1 is my top rated, a front runner drawn nearest the rail of the 4, in stall 3 so if leading could lead all the way and normally that would make it my only selection, it has been running well making the frame on all 4 runs this year but its been 22 runs since its last win which is a little offputting so I will be backing BLACK SALT 9/2 who usually finishes fast at this trip and this race may be run to suit its style and its trainer does have a good 22% win rate here but I might have a covering bet on my top rated. 

Black Salt 9/2 9th  

CHELMSFORD 5.50 

Only the 7 runners in this apprentice jockeys race and even then I've only narrowed it down to 2 possible winners and even then I'm not confident mainly because 5 of the 7 have been known to lead before, RED STRIPES 11/2 had become a bit of an enigma of running well, usually leading and getting caught and was on a long losing run until its win last time out, if they go off too fast then DANDILION 3/1 could be the one to take advantage if it can reproduce its Kempton time on its 1st run at this course, but reading through my notes as I write about this race it might be a good idea to leave this race alone and wait for better betting opportunities. 

Dandilion 7/2 4th 
Red Stripes 7/1 7th   

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.10 

As long as all 8 run this could be a nice class 2 affair, Doctor Sardinicus could attempt to lead from stall 1 and it comes out 4th best on my figures, Boom The Groom another that has been known to lead is 3rd best but has had 27 runs since its last win but could make the frame, I'm not sure if Foxy Forever is a real class 2 horse but is capable of running on well at the finish and could make the frame here but it shouldn't be able to catch my front running, top-rated horse in the shape of SHAMSHON 2/1 and the trainers 20% win rate here looks a good pointer to them hoping for a big run. 

Shamshon 3/1 2nd 

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