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Monday, 18 February 2019

7:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (18th February)

Today's Racing Tips

As I would expect this class 3 race is very competitive and a bit muddled with times over this c/d and times from Wolverhampton which has the same surface and timewise there looks to be 5 main contenders:- 

DANZAN is 2nd top rated using its best time from Wolverhampton and this is its debut at this course, the trainer has a 17% win rate here and the jockey is 6-19 for the stables older horses which makes me think this one will run a big race. 

EQUIANO SPRINGS is 2nd top rated on c/d times and is usually found running on strongly at the finish, the trainer has a 24% win rate and the jockey a 15 win rate for the stable so another that looks fancied by connections. 

EQUITATION is making its debut on this surface but looking at its preferences on grass this surface should be ok for it, so if it can reproduce its time from Chelmsford this year it could win cosily and another with good trainer 15% and jockey 21% stats. 

ATTHOLBLAIR BOY is capable of doing a fast time and its usual tactics are to track the leaders but its best times are recorded in lower class races so could struggle here. 

ORIENTAL LILLY a hold-up type is my joint 3rd top rated but once again its best times have been recorded in lower class races plus its not been in good form lately. 

SUMMARY I've narrowed it down to 3 selections in this race but my main concern is the fact that there is no known front running types in the race, DANZAN 10/1 comes out 2nd best on Wolverhampton times but the booked jockey points to it going well here and it could improve enough to win on this straight course and is a decent each-way price, I will have a bet on this horse but it will most likely a smaller covering bet to show a small profit if it wins, EQUIANO SPRINGS 6/1 is top rated on c/d times and can find this trip a little on the short side unless there's a fast early pace to aim at, the same comments also apply to EQUITATION 10/3 so if either of them is allowed to set the early pace they could do enough to make full use of their stamina to win the race and I will be backing both of them as my main bets with an each way covering bet on Danzan.

Equiano Springs 6/1 1st 
Equitation 4/1 6th 
Danzan 12/1  7th


This class 6 race with 10 runners I can split into 2 groups with not much to say about most of the runners but eliminate half the field from my list of likely winners, I've got 2lbs between Peachey Carnehan, Dandy Highwayman and Avenue Of Stars in 5th, 4th and 3rd position on my figures and all 3 of them like to race prominently, Thorntoun Lady another who likes to race close to the lead is well weighted on its best form but hasn't shown enough recently to make me think it can win this race which leaves me with the one I will be backing, the top weighted GOWANBUSTER 5/1 who I backed last time out in a class 5 race where it failed to get to the front but its dropped in class here and has a very good chance of leading all the way and I will definitely be having a few quid on this one.

Gowanbuster 5/1 3rd

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