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Monday, 29 April 2019

4:15 Southwell Racing Tips (29th April)


Quite a hard race to know what will fill the places as I've got 4 horses rated very close to each other and I've only got 1 in the race I can discard completely, there's 3 that have been known to lead but 2 of them ain't in my top 5, Socialites Red, Pushkin Museum(the 3rd horse that might set the pace and that could give it an advantage in making the frame of the 4 I mentioned (earlier) Big Brave Bob and Sir Ottoman, so perm any two from 4 in making the frame but my money will be riding on the topweight KATHEEFA 7/2 who recorded the best time earlier this year so is fit and has been found a chance here to find itself in the winners enclosure and the price is just about what I expected. 

Katheefa 7/2 1st 


None of my top 4 in this race have done their best times this year which is a bit off-putting so any stakes will be kept low, I've got Skyva as my 4th top rated using a 2017 time and usually stays on strongly at the finish at this distance, Camanche Grey hasn't been in form recently but has the 3rd best time from earlier last year, STAR CRACKER 11/2 is my 2nd top rated and the only “known” frontrunner in the race so could be dangerous if allowed to set its own pace but I do have BRENDAN 15/2 rated higher, it's being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice who has a poor 1-30 win rate for this stable which is off-putting but if he's worth his claim it could swing things in their favour and I will have to back them both. 

Star Cracker 13/2 1st 
Brendan 15/2 4th 

THIRSK 7.10 

If the going is ok this race will be very very competitive and I have marked 6 down as having some sort of chance to win, Kenny The Captain, Orions Bow and Dark Defender all have some chance but I have 3 more that have a few spots in hand if they reproduce their best times, UPSTAGING 33/1 is my top-rated using a Goodwood time from 2017 and ran quite well at Doncaster this year, Zylan didn't show much in 2018 but has a time from Hamilton in 2017 that would make it my 2nd top rated, my top rated is MR WAGYU 14/1 but this one needs good to firm going to show its best so my final thoughts will depend on the weather but backing 2 the selections each way looks most likely way to making a profit.

Upstaging 33/1 Unp
Mr Wagyu 14/1 Unp 

See Eric's Secret Tips 

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