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Friday, 31 May 2019

7:40 Chelmsford Racing Tips (31st May)

California Chrome Wins
CHELMSFORD 7.40 

A ten runner affair with three horses that have been known to lead before, Tomily and Giogiobbo have both got decent times on this surface and distance but not at this course but would need to improve for the switch here to actually win this race but they could go well, I think it will be too far for Erissimus Maximus and Storm Over if theres a fast early pace, which I expect will happen here, Katheefa may prefer a different surface to this one from what I can see, Ultimate Avenue and Rio Ronaldo will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late in the make up of this race, Moon Trouble is well drawn in stall one for a front runner but timewise im not sure if it can get away fast enough to actually lead but could contest the lead but I expect others to be too resolute for it nearing the finish, Busby likes to track the pace setters but would need to get a clear run from stall 4 in this race but never say never, it is my 2nd top rated so with a clear run could make the frame, my selection is ZAC BROWN 10/1 who can lead and I have to admit stall 10 isnt ideal but in the make up of this race he could lead or at least contest the lead (it was withdrawn the other day after a false start and showed its intention was to get away quickly and set the pace but it actually pushed its stall open fractionally before the others, I dont think it was disqualified but didnt take part in the re-start) the apprentice jockey that day is replaced by a jockey with a 17% win rate for the stable and will be the one carrying my money in this contest in the form of an each way wager at the double figure price. 

Zac Brown 10/1 UR 

CHELMSFORD 8.40 

I do love my AW racing but have to admit this race is a bit of a muddling affair, im not sure I could name a horse that cannot win this race as ive got very few negatives against any of their names, so I will concentrate on my top 4 rated beasts, Bosham is my 4th top rated and a possible pacesetter in this race and the trainer has a good 23% win rate with his older horses at this course, the other 2 that have been known to lead are all outside my top 4 so my 4th top rated could set the pace, Something Lucky comes out 2nd top using a 2018 time but its best this year has been way below that level, La Fortuna is the same trainer/jockey combination as my selection in the 7.30 race so cannot be dismissed from my list of potential winners but it didnt show much on its only run this year when finishing 5th and it rarely wins in the summer months, top of my list is Dynamo Walt who may be allowed to follow Bosham across to nearer the rails and then gains a good position from which to attack late on, I did say it was a bit of a muddling race so I will split my stake into two each way bets in this race between *BOSHAM 16/1 and DYNAMO WALT 10/1 to cover both angles.

* NR - Bosham 
Dynamo Walt 16/1 7th