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Monday, 20 May 2019

Carlisle Racing Tips (20th May)

Carlisle horse racing tips

The 3 at the bottom of the handicap are capable of recording fast times but usually in lower class races so may struggle to win here but could feasibly make the frame if others falter, my joint 3rd top rated are Mr Orange a hold up type and Highly Sprung who has been known to lead before and I think stall 1 is ideal and could be hard to catch for most of the field and has to be considered as a possible winner if my top 2 dont get a clear run, but I have got Carlell Cleave rated 3 lbs higher in top spot but this one doesnt really want fast going but could run a big race my top rated is FIRMDECISIONS 12/1 who finished 2nd last time out at Leicester and recorded a time only 4lbs below its best from last year, this one started off as my 2nd top rated but the apprentices 3lb claim moves it to top pot and will be carrying my money as an each way bet, I wasnt really expecting such a big price, but my stakes won't be at full strength mainly because of its stall 11 draw and I will have a covering bet on Highly Sprung at 9/2.

Firmdecisions 18/1 1st 

REDCAR 4.05 

A strange race for a class 3 affair, there's a couple of known front runners but they are not in my top 4 ratings, Blue De Vega, Bowson Fred and Duke Of Firenze are my 4th to 2nd top rated and all 3 of them are on long losing runs and none of them wants the going to be really fast, while my top rated Nibras Again usually records its best times in lower class company so this race is maybe best left alone and watched.


A nice looking Listed class race but it might be a bit of a one-horse race if my figures are right, The Tin Man 13/8 is well known in this class of race but the price is way too short in my opinion, its last 4 runs in 2018 were all Group 1 races and it started off last year by winning this race and it's my 2nd top rated so could go well but it doesn't seem to want really fast going and its 7lb penalty for winning a Group 1 race on soft ground may mean it will struggle to give 7lbs to the improving *EMBLAZONED 7/2 who ran a good race when 2nd last time out on soft going and will be much more at home on this faster ground and I have it a good few spots clear so will definitely be my bet in the race. 



The 2 known front runners are not in my top 4 ratings so will most likely set the race up for a fast finisher unless one of them gets an easy lead and dictates at a slightly slower pace so its got enough in reserve to repel any challengers but I doubt that will happen here, Oeil De Tigre is capable of recording fast times but this 8-year-old usually does so in lower class than this class 3 affair, Tropics may be topweight but it still comes out 2nd top on my figures and is fit from a winter campaign on the all-weather tracks but I've got VEGAS BOY 7/2 rated 5 lbs higher and it has got a chance here to go one better than when finishing 2nd last time out at Ascot on good to soft ground so should relish this easier course and better going add on the 16% win ratio for the trainer at this course and the jockeys record is 20% win ratio for this stables older horses so I'm expecting connections think they have a decent chance here to get back to winning ways.

Vegas Boy 11/2 9th 

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