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Monday, 3 June 2019

5:45 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (3rd June)


AWSAAF won its last race but the time was quite slow but is running again before it can be re-assessed and the same jockey rides it again, it does stay on at the finish and should confirm the form with Tiger Lyon who it caught nearing the line but 11/10 is way too short.

PROMINNA hasn't shown any form timewise lately and usually stays on strongly at the finish but not sure this race will be run to suit it and a 20/1 shot. 

CAPTAIN RYAN has a time from earlier this year that puts it into my top spot and is well drawn in stall 2 for the most likely pacesetter in the race and 16/1 is a good each-way price. 

TIGER LYON held by the topweight being only 3 lb better off and when it won over this c/d the time was also on the slow side and not won in it's last 12 runs so not for me here and 2/1 is another that's way too short for its actual chance of winning. 

BROGAN'S BAY has only had 7 runs and one 3rd place is all its got to show for them and this one may be better when tried over a longer trip and a 33/1 outsider.

WANEEN hasn't shown much timewise since 2017 and even its best then would only put it into 4th top spot, it could make the frame but I'm doubting it can win and 13/2 isn't really of value. 

DUBAI ELEGANCE is on a losing run of 12 but hasn't run here before and would need to improve on its best time from Chelmsford but does stay on well at the finish and 12/1 is a fair price for its chance but I couldn't back or lay this one. 

LE MANEGE ENCHANTE has only produced slow times at this c/d and another one that stays on at the finish of the race but maybe too late to break its losing run of 19 races and the 22/1 price backs that up. 

BALLESTEROS this 10 year old seems to be on a downward spiral with pretty dire form since 2017 and it would need to spring back to form but I'm doubting its capable these days and its the 80/1 complete outsider. 

MYSUSY the only 3-year-old in the race and has one 3rd place to show from 5 races and may need this run for fitness having not run for 231 days and 33/1 reflects its chance. 

CALEDONIAN GOLD is still a maiden after 48 races and I cannot see that changing here and sure looks to need further to show anything worthwhile and a 40/1 shot. 

SUMMARY: I am hoping the form of others in this race will mean my selection is a bigger price than it should be, Awsaaf won last time out in a relatively slow run affair and the fact its running again before the handicapper gives it a new official rating and Tiger Lyon finished 2nd in that race after keeping the leader up to its work but still getting caught in the last half a furlong, if my selection CAPTAIN RYAN 16/1 gets to the front from stall 2 I think it will be very hard for the rest to catch it and anything bigger in price than about 8/1 is value. 

P.S- there are 5 sprints today and I've tried to analyse each of them but couldn't bet in the other 4 sprints, 3 low grade class 6 affairs with limited data to work with plus an 8 runner class 4 race but there are five 3-year-olds in the race that could improve without warning so I'm leaving them well alone and as you have perhaps gathered recently I much prefer all-weather racing where I'm not at the mercy of the weather and the overwatering of courses at the first sign of the ground being anything like firm or even good to firm.

Captain Ryan 16/1 8th 

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