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Tuesday, 9 July 2019

2:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (9th July)


I usually love these AW races but this is a poor class 6 race then add in six 3-year-olds into the mix the waters become very muddy and my stakes are automatically curbed, none of the 3-year-olds has shown much but could be capable of improving without warning so I'm hoping that doesn't happen here, I've got joint top rated horses in Peachey Carnehan who hasn't shown anything to make me think today is the day but being a front runner it could be dangerous and I might have a covering bet on it but my main bet will be SPENNY'S LASS 8/1 just because of the jockey booking as he has a 21% win rate with all the stables runners and a 38% win rate with its older horses. 

Spenny's Lass 14/1 6th 


I'm not a fan of betting in claiming races and not exactly sure about a claiming handicap, I will as usual use my unique speed figures, The Establishment is my 3rd top rated and the only known frontrunner in the field so it could do enough from the front to at least make the frame but with 2 with faster times it might not be able to win but never say never, LUCKY LODGE 7/2 is my top rated on c/d times and usually likes to track the leaders but DUKE COSIMO 12/1 has an even faster time but it was recorded at Newcastle over this distance and hasn't run here before so I will have to back both of them but to smallish stakes. 

Duke Cosimo 12/1 2nd 
Lucky Lodge 7/2 5th


SANDRAS SECRET comes out 3rd best on my figures from a time recorded at York in 2018 but in a fast run race it can struggle to stay the trip, it may make the frame but would need others to falter to win the race. 

REFLEKTOR hasn't recorded a fast enough time for a while now and may also be better when the going isnt good to firm so may struggle again here but is versatile when it comes down to racing tactics and that includes leading if nothing else wants to. 

TOMMY TAYLOR has a time recorded this year at Doncaster that makes it my top rated and likes a fast pace to aim at which looks likely to happen in this race and has been found a chance to go one place better than its last race. 

OWER FLY is a front running type and this type, of course, should suit it well, timewise it comes out 4th best on my figures so could do enough from the front to make the frame. 

VENTURA OCEAN is another that could contest the lead but timewise it would need to improve on its 2 previous runs over this course and distance and its 2 runs this year haven't inspired any confidence in its chances. 

VON BLUCHER prefers to track the front runners in its races and comes out 2nd top on its time from Doncaster this year so should be capable of making the frame in this race. 

KEY TO POWER won last time out over 5 furlongs and may struggle to stay this distance in a true run affair and looks one I would look to lay especially at the forecast tissue single figure price. 

MUSHARRIF has only produced low times over this 6-furlong trip looking much happier at shorter distances so another I would lay if at a single figure price. 

SUMMARY: I'm hoping that either Reflektor or Ventura Ocean or even both take on Ower Fly for the lead in this race ensuring there's a genuine fast early pace which will put a few out of contention but should suit my selection TOMMY TAYLOR 3/1 who is usually found staying on strongly at the finish the only niggle is the losing run of 14 which I hope it can break here.

Tommy Taylor 3/1 4th 

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