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Thursday, 18 July 2019

2:10 Hamilton Racing Tips (18th July)


Of the 13 runners I've found 3 that like to lead and they are all in my top 6 ratings Super Florence is 2nd top on just 2019 times and 4th top overall its on a losing run of 12 but could make the frame, Jacobs Pillow comes out 3rd best on a 2018 c/d time and has been known to front-run, Camanche Grey is well weighted on its best run but with the trainers 0-8 and the jockeys 1-40 records i doubt they are expecting much in this race, my money will be riding on BRONZE BEAU 5/1 who finished 2nd last time out and has been found an opportunity to go one better here. 

Bronze Beau 10/1 5th


I am in a pickle with this race, Jaganory would be a fairly confident selection if it was over five and a half furlongs or shorter but this is six furlongs BUT there aren't any known front runners in this race so if the early pace is relatively slow it could stay the trip but I wouldn't want to rely on that happening, Castlerae Tess comes out 2nd top but I had to go back to Catterick in 2017 to find that time and its not done a repeat since then, the topweight Secondo is my 3rd top-rated and that was recorded this year at Brighton but the trainers 0-25 record at this course and the horses losing run of 23 are off-putting so maybe a race best left alone unless the betting shows some value that I can't ignore. 


I cannot really narrow this race down to one selection with any confidence but im still hopeful that I can make a profit from the race, theres five 3-year-olds that could improve and upset my analysis but as usual I will stick with the proven, SWENDAB 20/1 is my 2nd top rated using a 2018 c/d time but hasnt shown much recently but it is one of those horses that can spring back to form without warning and I expect it will be a big price and has to carry a small amount of my money just in case todays its day, SPOT LITE 8/1 showed a return to fomr might be nigh when finishing 3rd last time out and the trainers 29% win rate here with their older horses and the jockeys 22% win ratio for this stable point to connections expecting a big run here so has to be backed but the topweight SEAMSTER 11/2 would be interesting if running again here after finishing 3rd on Tuesday and its best time from Nottingham last year would see it home with a bit to spare and then take into account the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim which takes it further clear and he has a 17% win rate on this stables older horses, so I will back all 3 to hopefully show a profit. 

Spot Lite 8/1 2nd
Seamster 11/2 5th
Swendab 33/1 6th


This is a poor class 6 affair where I've only got 3 that have got recorded times, I think my main line of attack in this race will be to lay a few but which ones will depend on the betting and I will most likely post on the EricWinner FB page, Chez Vegas would be 2nd top-rated but that's using a 2016 time at Doncaster so maybe not one to rely on, Case Key has a time from Yarmouth which puts it 3rd top but that time came from last year so the one I will be backing is KATH'S LUSTRE 8/1 who did its time this year but at Bath which isn't a full 6 furlong distance but has won over the distance on the AW tracks so it shouldn't be a problem.

Kath's Lustre 8/1 6th

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