4:45 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (29th October)

SOUTHWELL 4.45 

I can see a few to lay in this race (Good Earth + Time To Reason + Hawk In The Sky) if they are in single figure prices, Onebaba is my 3rd top-rated so could make the frame but there is a few lightly raced sorts in the race and it won't take much winning.

JAZZ LEGEND 33/1 (EW) is my top-rated using its best time from 2019 but it hasn't shown much in its 3 runs this year but it is the only known frontrunning type in the field and with an easy lead it could get back to winning ways but the jockeys 0-9 record for this stable puts me off a little else it would have been my only selection but at the price, I will have to have an each-way wager on it, I will also be backing.

GORGEOUS GENERAL 10/3 who has the top figure of the others and it was from this year and the trainer does well at this course. 

Generous General 10/3 3rd (-1pt)

Jazz Legend 33/1 Unp (-2pt)

Lay bets: Good Earth +1pt, Time To Reason +1pt, Hawk In The Sky +1pt

Total: 0pts

CHELMSFORD 5.00

There's 3 known frontrunners in this race and Edge Of The Bay is my 3rd top-rated on a 2020 time with Sir Hector in 2nd top spot using its best 2019 time so they should ensure there's a fast early pace but if INDIAN PURSUIT 5/2 can reproduce its best time which was recorded this year it would be winning a little cosily but I think it will be the favourite but I cannot find anything I would back against it. 

Indian Pursuit 5/2 1st (+2pts) (Betfair SP 2,22)

Total +2.5pts

SOUTHWELL 6.15 

Half of the 12 runners have been known to lead before so it will be a fast and furious dash and i have a feeling they might battle too hard and then fade nearing the finish, Crosse Fire can record fast times but doesn't win in this class of race but could make the frame, Dark Shot is versatile with its racing tactics and has a fast c/d time from 2019 to its name, Astro Jakk and King Of Stars are another couple of possible leaders and have times that would put them in the mix, my money will be riding on SAMOVAR 16/1 (EW) and hopefully it will be an each-way price, it is 2nd top on just 2020 c/d times, just 1lb below top spot, and 3rd top overall still only by 1lb, so if they do fade at the finish it could be the one to prosper and must have an each-way chance if repeating its best and the win isn't out of the question. 

Samovar 16/1 -2pt

Total: -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.15 

Not the worst of races even for a class 6 affair, of the 13 runners there's 3 known front-running types and Red Stripes and Archimedes are both in my top 5 ratings, Loulin has a time from 2019 that would see it in the mix but they could all be battling for a place, I've got joint top-rated horses but Under Curfew recorded its fastest time at Lingfield which is a different surface so I will be backing ARZAAK 5/1 who recorded its best time which was over this c/d and this year which is always a positive.

Arzaak 5/1 (+5pts) (Betfair SP 6.29)

Total: +5pts

Total on the day +5.5pts

6:00 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (13th March)

SOUTHWELL 6.00

As usual, I will start with the ones I don't think can win this race (Carlovian + Northern Queen) I could have added Waqaas to the list of lays but there isn't much else known early pace so with an easy lead he could become very dangerous as I think he might be better over further, Kommander Kirkup hasn't been in form recently while Jazz Legend might need this run so maybe worth laying as well but I will stick with the 2 I am confident won't win, Badger Berry is well-weighted and could go well but my money will be riding on PUCHITA 10/3 who won for me the time before last over this trip but was outpaced early in its last race over 5 furlongs and now back up to 6 furlongs it has been found a good chance to get back to winning ways. 

Puchita 10/3 1st 

Lay bets: Carlovian (+1pt) Northern Queen (+1pt)

Total 5.33pts


SOUTHWELL 7.00

An old favourite of mine Red Stripes has won for me recently but today its raised into a class 4 affair, I have a feeling it might be a step too far for it plus it will be taken on by Aleef for the lead, no doubt it will run a decent race but may fall a little short, Exalted Angel likes to track the leaders and will be trying to stay on at the finish and should go well but I will be backing SAMOVAR 7/1 but my only worry with this horse is that he doesn't seem to win as many races as it ought to do but it has won 4 times over this c/d and at the price looks a value call in the race, its another that likes to track the leaders and if the leaders fade nearing the finish it could stay on resolutely to pick them up as the line approaches.

Samovar 7/1 3rd 

**KNOW THE BEST HORSES IN TRAINING (BEFORE THEY RACE!)**

12:40 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (23rd January)

SOUTHWELL 12.40 

I think this race in betting terms is best left alone but I am going to stick my neck out as I will have a small each-way bet on *HELLOFAGAME 33/1 who isn't well drawn in stall 12 and hasn't shown much in its latest couple of races but it is capable of bouncing back to form without prior warning so at the price I cannot let it run without some money riding on it at the price, I will also lay, (>Chiavart + *Meshardal + Newgate Angel<) to make an overall profit from the race. 

*NR
Newgate Angel (+1pt) Chiavart (+1pt)

Total = +2pt 


SOUTHWELL 3.30 

Only 5 runners in a class 3 race, both Zylan and National Anthem appear to be better when racing over a longer trip while the only known frontrunner in the race Airshow needs to improve timewise to hang on for the win but if given an easy lead then who knows, I will be backing both SAMOVAR 10/1 and HAREEM QUEEN 11/4 in this race but again not too big stakes. 

Hareem Queen 11/4 1st 
Samovar 10/1 3rd

Total = +1.75pts

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

To be honest, this isn't a great race for a class 4 affair especially as there's no known pacesetters in the field of 9, I will be looking to lay, (>Foolaad + Lorton + Glorious Charmer<) Hart Stopper could be a hidden danger looking at its turf form on good to firm ground, Treacherous is 3rd top overall but that's using a Kempton time as its time when it won over this c/d was a slow run affair Fuente is 3rd top on 2019/20 c/d times only, Fendale comes out 2nd top on both 2019/20 times and overall but my top rated is ATHOLLBLAIR BOY 12/1 who has run well before after a short break and the booked jockey has a decent 18% win rate on this stables older horses on the AW tracks and will be the one carrying my money but with the lack of known early pace my stakes won't be at full strength. 

Athollblair Boy 12/1 4th 
Lay bets: Foolaad (+1pt) Lorton (+1pt) Glorious Charmer (+1pt) 

Total points +2pts

NEWCASTLE 8.00

There's a few in this race that is on my radar to lay, (> Hot Stuff + Marcella + *Iron Ryan + Montalvan <) the topweight Jan Van Hoof comes out 4th top-rated and ought to be trying to stay on at the finish, Encoded is on a losing streak of 12 races but is my 3rd top-rated and it likes to track the leaders as does Mightaswellsmile my 2nd top-rated but this ones losing run stands at 30 races, the one my money will be riding on here is QAARAAT 9/2 it has been running ok lately and if reproducing its best 2019 c/d time then it would be winning quite comfortably but in these class 6 races consistency isn't a word used at this level so I'm afraid once again my stakes won't be at full tilt.

Qaaraat 9/2 Unp
Lay bets: Hot Stuff (+1pt) Marcella (+1pt) 

Total = +1pt

Total on Day +6.75pts

1:20 Southwell Racing Tips (1st January)

SOUTHWELL 1.20 

FOOLAAD 13/2 is my 3rd top-rated both on 2019 c/d times and overall figures and usually likes to track the pacesetters and neither one to back or lay.

MOONRAKER 2/1 won last time out over this c/d and is 2nd top-rated here again on both 2019 c/d times and overall figures and could go well again here being just a couple of pounds off top spot and its one of two known front-running sorts in the race.

HART STOPPER 5/1 has only a slow time for its only c/d run and I think it might need further and also a faster surface than this one to show its best and lay at such a short price.

AIRSHOW 16/1 is the other known frontrunning type in this field but it looks as though further would suit it better, I'm not sure if it can lead here and an outsider.

SHAMSHON 12/1 has only slow times recently, even its best wouldn't see it winning this race, it may need further and a different surface.

SAMOVAR 6/1 usually likes to track the leaders and is my top rated again on both 2019 c/d times and overall figures and can turn the tables on Moonraker who beat it last time out.

SPIRITED GUEST 3/1 has 2 wins and 3 places from 5 runs on the AW tracks although none were here, I couldn't back or lay this one but the price is too short in my opinion.

SUMMARY: Moonraker won last time out when leading or contesting the lead from the off, that day I thought the only one that might catch it was SAMOVAR 6/1 but that day my selection didn't get away on terms and was always playing catchup I'm hoping it can track the leader here and prove the stronger at the finish so will be carrying my money to turn the tables. 

Samovar 6/1 2nd 

SOUTHWELL 3.40

ZAPPER CASS 11/4 is 3rd best on my speed figures and usually stays on at the business end of a race but maybe too late to win here and I would risk the lay at the price.

GRISONS 11/4 hasn't any surface form but has won on g/s going on turf so could go well, I cant back or lay this entrant but seems short for a horse that's not proven here.

MULZIM 16/1 hasn't any distance form to its name and this distance might be too short for it or on this surface, it could be a hidden danger, not a back or lay in my eyes at the price.

WARRIOR'S VALLEY 3/1 one of 2 possible pacesetters in this race and if this one does get to the front it could prove hard to catch and has a positive looking jockey booking. 

ANDRE AMAR 11/1 is on a losing run of 11 and been out of form lately and I'm not convinced this surface will suit its racing style and I would lay it if backed to a single figure price.

TAN 20/1 another that may not favour this surface and it would need to improve timewise and would need an upturn in form to interest me and its the outsider of the field.

RED STRIPES 13/2 hasn't been in very good form lately but being a possible pacesetter it cannot ever be completely ignored but not for me till it shows a form revival.

SUMMARY: I'm hoping that WARRIOR'S VALLEY 3/1 can set the pace to this race and then prove hard to catch on this straight five-furlong course and the jockey 2-8 record for the stable looks a positive in making me think connections are expecting a big run here and will be carrying my money.

Warrior's Valley 6/1 3rd

Related post: Check Out Eric's Winners For The 2019 Season

3:00 Southwell Racing Tip (29th December)

SOUTHWELL 3.00 

EMILY GOLDFINCH hasn't any form on this surface and I don't think it will suit it and it may also be better over further so one I would lay if of any value to do so but not at 25/1.

MOONRAKER 5/2 one of 3 known frontrunning types in the race and if getting to the front in this race it could prove hard to catch is my 2nd top-rated.

CROSSE FIRE 6/1 is another that might try to lead but is 4th top on 2019 c/d times but does have a time from 2018 that would see it make the frame. 

SAMOVAR 8/1 is my 3rd top-rated on just 2019 c/d times but this one also has a time from 2018 that would put into contention to make the frame. 

NICK VEDDER is on a losing run of 13 which is off-putting and races as though a longer distance would suit it better and a 20/1 outsider. 

JONBOY 14/1 hasn't any c/d form to its name but it could suit this surface and distance which would make it a danger but I will stick with the proven as it doesn't seem fancied.

YOUNG TIGER 7/2 I'm not sure if this one is up to this class of race but it is capable of recording a fast time and has been I good form lately. 

AWSAAF 2/1 hasn't any c/d form to its name but I think it won't be suited to this surface and another I would look to lay if of any value to do so but too big at the price.

SUMMARY: There's a couple I could lay in this race, a definite hidden danger in Jonboy who at the price doesn't look fancied here, Young Tiger has the fastest time but recorded in a race two classes below this class 4 affair which is enough for me to doubt it will be able to cope with this raise in class, the 3 known frontrunners are all drawn next door to each other in stalls 3, 4 and 5 which could hinder Moonrakers chances and also maybe set the race up for one of the finishers and my money will be riding on SAMOVAR 8/1 who looks the value call at the price and the jockeys 21% win rate for this stables older horses makes me think they are expecting a big run in this race.

Samovar 8/1 5th

Related post: Did You Know Eric Gives Secret Tips?

6:30 Southwell Racing Tips (21st October)

SOUTHWELL 6.30 

Again 10 runners and to be honest for a class 4 affair its not that great and theres 4 horses, Young John, Airglow, Praxidice and Gullane One that could be potential hidden dangers so any stakes won't be at full strength, my top 3 are all frontrunners so a lot of these might not get involved in the race unless they improve on what they have shown so far, Angel Palanas is 3rd top on a time recorded in 2018 so not an ideal draw in the make-up of this race, my 2nd top rated horse SAMOVAR 6/1 is ideally drawn in stall 1 so could/should gain control of the rails and then prove hard to catch but I do have LIAMBA 8/1 rated 3lbs higher, it will need a clear run from stall 8 and in my opinion may be fast enough away to at least contest the lead from the off and as long as it doesnt get took too wide on the bend it could prove the stronger but I will have to back them both but with my stakes tilted in favour of my top rated horse.

Liamba 10/1 3rd
Samovar 6/1 Unp 

See Eric's Secret Tip Here.