Wednesday's Backs and Lays (25th June)

OK a baker's dozen for the 2H method today: 

2.15 7--6 

2.25 5--2 

2.45 2--1 

3.25 4--5 

3.33 3--9 

3.45 8--6 

4.03 6--3 

4.15 6--1 

5.10 4--2 

6.40 2--9 

8.10 8--3 

8.20 2--4 

9.00 5--4 

GLYF

Tuesday's Backs and Lays (24th June)

Today's short (5 races) list: 

2.45 5--3 

3.30 4--1 

4.00 4--3 

4.15 5--3

5.57 5--3 

GLIYF

Monday's Backs and Lays (23rd June)

Here is today's info: 

2.30 3--1 

4.03 8--3 

4.20 5--4 

4.35 2--1

6.10 7--2 

6.58 4--1 

GLIYF

Sunday's Backs and Lays (22nd June)

A bad day at the office yesterday with a £25.10 loss but still in profit for the month, anyways heres todays list: 

3.00 4--1 

3.10 2--1 

3.18 3--1 

3.30 5--1 

3.50 6--3 

4.25 8--5 

4.50 6--2 

5.25 6--1 

GLIYF

Saturday's Backs and Lays (21st June)

A nice profit of £26.80 yesterday, anyways heres todays list: 

1.50 4--2 

2.03 9--4 

2.14 3--1 

2.30 8--5 

3.55 4--3 

4.05 6--2 

4.10 6--4 

5.20 10--8 

5.50 5--1 

7.23 4--3 

7.30 11-1 

8.25 10--9 

8.45 5--1 

GLIYF

Friday's Backs and Lays (20th June)

Here's today's 2H list: 

2.40 6--1 

2.50 6--1 

3.13 7--5 

3.50 4--1 

4.20 11--6 

4.25 4--3 

4.40 5--4 

5.15 5--1 

5.20 3--2 

5.25 7--3 

5.45 4--1 

5.52 2--1 

6.37 4--1 

6.50 3--2 

7.03 7--3 

GLIYF

Wednesday's Backs and Lays (18th June)

Just these from Eric. Sys he's struggling to get any lay bets.

 

2.40 3--2 

3.40 4--1 

3.50 3--1 

4.00 6--5 

5.45 5--1 

6.20 2--1 

6.30 4--3 

7.45 4--3 

8.15 4--1 

GLIYF

Tuesday's Lay Bets (17th June)

As you may have noticed, Eric isn't forwarding so many backs and lays so the website will be a mix of his work and general gambling stories. 

Here is today's list for the 2H method, where you back whichever one is made favourite at the off on Betfair's SP on the place part only and priced below 2.10 at the off, any non-runners or if something else in the race is made favourite then theres no bet:

2.05 3--1 

2.15 8--6 

3.50 4--1 

4.30 5--2 

5.50 8--1 

6.15 4--1 

6.45 9--4 

9.00 3--2 

GLIYF

The Man Who Cracked The Horse Tipping World

Image Source: Freepik 

In the dusty corner of a forgotten Cambridge college office, amid stacks of yellowing notebooks and tangled chalkboards scrawled with symbols, lived Dr. Alaric Fenn, a mathematician once hailed as a genius in combinatorics before veering into eccentricity. His lectures became more sporadic. His appearance more disheveled. But what truly marked his descent into legend wasn’t his retreat from academia—it was his claim that he had uncovered the mathematical secret to consistently tipping winning horses. 

For years, Fenn was mocked and ignored, his theories dismissed as the ramblings of a brilliant mind gone mad. But in the horse racing circles of Newmarket and beyond, whispers began to grow: the mad mathematician was winning. Again. And again. And again. 

What was his secret? 

Fenn called it The Theory of Dynamic Odds Convergence, though bookmakers and bettors came to know it by another name: "The Algorithm." According to Fenn, the outcome of horse races wasn't a product of pure chance, as many believed, nor solely dependent on the strength or form of the horses. Instead, he argued, horse racing markets—like financial ones—were susceptible to systematic human biases, and those biases left trails in the form of fluctuating odds. 

“The horses are secondary,” Fenn once said in a rare interview with a student magazine. “What matters are the bettors. The real race happens in the betting market, not on the track.” At the heart of his method was a fusion of Bayesian inference, information theory, and a peculiar obsession with late odds movements. Fenn believed that last-minute shifts in odds—especially small, seemingly insignificant ones—were often the result of insider knowledge leaking into the market just before the start. But these movements alone weren’t enough. 

He built a model that tracked the historical performance of horses against the odds they closed at, factoring in trainer behavior, jockey changes, track conditions, weather anomalies, and, curiously, patterns in how different types of bettors reacted to different horses. He referred to the key component of his model as “the entropy shift.” Simply put, this was a statistical signal indicating that the betting market was becoming less random—that information, somewhere, had crystallized into consensus. 

That’s when he bet. 

Not on the favorite. Not even always on the second favorite. But on the horse that represented the largest discrepancy between perceived randomness and converging insider behavior.

Fenn’s algorithm wasn’t foolproof. But it didn’t need to be. Across a sample of over 800 races, his selections had a winning rate of only 23%—yet the average return per unit bet was over 18%. In a world where even breaking even is rare, this was staggering. As his winnings grew, so did the myth. But just as suddenly as he appeared on the scene, Fenn vanished. His office was cleared. His notebooks gone. Some say he retired to a quiet island off the Scottish coast. Others claim he was bought out—his algorithm buried by a syndicate of high-stakes gamblers who didn’t want the secret exposed. 

Skeptics argue there never was a true algorithm. That Fenn’s “success” was cherry-picked or short-lived luck. But every now and then, when a longshot wins under mysterious betting patterns, punters still joke, “Looks like the mad mathematician’s back.” Whether Alaric Fenn truly cracked the code of horse racing—or simply understood human behavior better than anyone—remains a mystery. But one thing is certain: in a world ruled by odds, he reminded us that the most unpredictable variable is often the one staring into the betting screen. 

Photo: Freepik

Exploiting the Illusion of Control: A Hidden Edge in Beating the Bookies

Image Source: Freepik

In the intricate world of sports betting, success often hinges not just on statistical analysis but also on understanding the psychological biases that influence both bettors and bookmakers. One such lesser-known yet impactful cognitive bias is the illusion of control. Recognizing and exploiting this bias can provide a strategic advantage in identifying value bets and making more informed wagering decisions.

Understanding the Illusion of Control:

The illusion of control refers to the tendency of individuals to overestimate their ability to control events, especially those determined by chance.For example, take a look at casinocorner online to test this hypothesis. This bias is particularly prevalent in gambling contexts, where bettors may believe that their actions, choices, or rituals can influence random outcomes.

For instance, a sports bettor might feel more confident placing a wager after conducting extensive research, believing that their knowledge gives them an edge. While informed analysis is beneficial, overconfidence can lead to misjudging the actual probabilities, especially in events with high variability.

Manifestations in Sports Betting 

Several behaviors in sports betting exemplify the illusion of control:

Overemphasis on Personal Analysis: Bettors may believe that their unique insights or models can consistently outperform the market, leading to overconfidence and potentially risky bets.

Preference for In-Play Betting: 

The dynamic nature of live betting can give bettors a false sense of control, as they react to unfolding events, believing they can predict outcomes more accurately in real-time.

Ritualistic Behaviors: 

Some bettors develop superstitions or routines, thinking these actions influence outcomes, despite the randomness inherent in sports events.

Bookmakers' Exploitation of the Bias:

Bookmakers are adept at leveraging the illusion of control to their advantage. By offering a plethora of betting options, especially in-play markets, they cater to bettors' desire for control and engagement. The complexity and immediacy of these markets can entice bettors to make impulsive decisions, often based on perceived control rather than objective analysis.

Furthermore, promotional offers and personalized betting suggestions can reinforce the belief that bettors have unique insights or advantages, encouraging continued wagering.... 

Strategic Implications: Turning Bias into Benefit

Understanding the illusion of control can be a powerful tool for bettors aiming to gain an edge:

Self-Awareness: 

Recognize personal tendencies toward overconfidence. Regularly assess whether betting decisions are based on objective analysis or a false sense of control.

Value Betting: 

Focus on identifying bets where the odds offered by bookmakers underestimate the true probability of an outcome. This approach relies on statistical analysis rather than perceived control.

Limit In-Play Betting: 

While live betting can be exciting, it's essential to approach it with caution. Ensure that decisions are data-driven and not merely reactions to the unfolding game.

Avoid Superstitions: 

Recognize and eliminate ritualistic behaviors that have no bearing on outcomes. Focus on strategies grounded in research and analysis.

Conclusion:

The illusion of control is a subtle yet influential bias that can lead bettors astray. By acknowledging its presence and understanding how it manifests in betting behavior, individuals can make more rational decisions, avoid common pitfalls, and potentially identify opportunities where the market has mispriced odds due to widespread biases. In the competitive arena of sports betting, such psychological insights can be the differentiator between consistent losses and strategic gains.

Photo: Freepik