SOUTHWELL 5.10
Only 7 runners, Zapper Cass, Ebtida and Private Matter are all on double-figure losing streaks and I cannot see why any of them should change that fact in this race, the 3yo Royal Sands could still improve and needs to win here but lets hope its not in this race, Requited is my 3rd top-rated and the only known pacesetter in the field so is ideally drawn in stall 1 but may set the race up for a finishing type, Samovar is my 2nd top-rated and it usually likes to track the leader and could be the one to have first go at picking up the leader but my money will be riding on the topweight ETERNAL SUN 12/1 can track the leaders or be held up for a late surge and does have a few spots in hand if reproducing its best from this year, its a shame there's only7 runners as it would be a good each-way price if there were 3 places up for grabs.
Eternal Sun 22/1 7th
SOUTHWELL 6.40
A nice looking 10 runner handicap race, I've got a couple of dark horses in Rolladice and Ower Fly who could take to this surface but I will stick with the proven, I can find negatives against half the field, Llamba is my 3rd top-rated and usually likes to track the leaders while my 2nd top-rated Rock Of Estonia is a hold up type, the only known frontrunning sort in the race is also my top rated POETA BRASILEIRO 3/1 so I am hoping this one can lead all the way here and the trainer has a good 20% win rate with his runners at this course which is often an indicator of them expecting it to go well and looking at the price everyone thinks it has a good chance.
Poeta Brasileiro 3/1 2nd
As you may have realised I haven't been posting for the last 2 or 3 days because I've had no internet connection, thanks to Talk Talk, I am now rushing around to try and catch up on results, speed figures etc so tonights blog will be short of the usual depth but all the essentials will be covered.
NEWCASTLE 6.05
There's not a lot to write about in this race and its not a race to be betting too heavily in, the favourite is Astro Jakk who won at Southwell and being a 3 year old could still improve and it would need to win this race on a different surface,Paddy Power is capable of going well if in the right mood but hasn't shown much since the early part of this year, EPEIUS 10/1 is well weighted on its best form and it is my top rated and the trainer has a decent strike-rate at this course, my 2nd top-rated is MAGICAL SPIRIT 11/2 this 3-year-old is a front running sort and could still be able to improve from its win last time out so I will back them both to cover the angles.
Magical Spirit 6/1 2nd
Epeius 16/1 3rd
NEWCASTLE 7.35
I would leave this race well alone, those that do have a recorded speed figure are at the lower end of the scale and there's quite a few 3-year-olds and other lightly raced sorts and there's not enough data to form a confident solution
CHELMSFORD 7.55
My top 4 ratings in this race are closely rated and they all have good trainer and/or jockey stats so I will go with dutching, DREAMBOAT ANNIE 25/1 and PEARL SPECTRE 8/1 who are both front running types but not ideally drawn in stalls 9 and 10,the latter is my overall top rated but only by 1lb, the 3rd selection is BROUGHTON EXCELS who is 2nd top-rated on this years times and 4th top-rated overall and has the ideal draw in stall one to get a good early prominent position from which to attack late on, another that should be staying on is the 3 year old AQUARIUS 8/1.
Broughton Excels 6/4 2nd
Pearl Spectre 12/1 4th
Dreamboat Annie 25/1 6th
Aquarius 25/1 9th
NEWCASTLE 8.05
There isn't a lot of known early speed sorts in this race but The Grey Zebedee could take up the pacesetters role but I doubt it can hang on to lead all the way as its outside my top 3 ratings, the early favourite is Jeffrey Harris 5/2, it did win last time out but over 6 furlongs and may get found out for early speed dropped down to 5 furlongs here so I would look to lay it just because it looks poor value in my eyes, I've co-3rd top-rated horses in Mable Lee from a time in 2018, Gleaming Arch and Kibaar, so they could all be battling to make the frame, Extrasolar maybe on the decline with age but a time from 2018 would see it winning cosily here but its recent form has been quite poor, I will be having a small bet on GUARDIA SVIZZERA 9/1 who is, of course, my top rated but its still a maiden on the AW after 11 runs and its 19 races since it last won but the jockey does quite well for this trainer at this course.
Guardia Svizzer 9/1 7th
As Eric is still having problems with his WiFi I will write a quick post about this 5f sprint.
5f (4f214y) Ladbrokes Where The Nation Plays Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo)
An intriguing Class 5 two-year-old race on the fibresand.
Philip Makin's The Bell Conductor is a consistent son of Dandy Man, who has been placed on all three starts to date. This bay colt has been fancied in the betting on each occasion putting down a fine effort on debut when losing by a head over 6f. He was made favourite at York when bumping into a real talent in Tim Easterby's Art Power, who cruised home by over five lengths. The Bell Conductor didn't mind getting his feet dirty when heading to Catterick last time out in the heavy ground. He put up a sterling effort against the highly-rated Mighty Spirit when denied by a head. Philip Makin will be hoping to make this fourth time lucky.
Mark Johnston has been in flying form all season and a record-breaker in every sense of the word. Auchterarder hasn't been seen for one-hundred and seventy-seven days since an imposing victory on debut at Beverley. This daughter of Gleneagles was weak in the betting that day but flew home to an easy victory. She has to carry a win penalty. It is a worry why she has been absent for such a long time. However, it is worth noting this bay filly has been given a Listed class entry, which is a positive.
Another horse who has tasted victory is Michael Dod's Royal Context who similarly hasn't been seen for over a month. This gelding has proven he can handle the fibresand finishing fourth on debut over 5f at odds of 20/1. He won next time out when finishing strongly over 6f. He too has to shoulder a penalty.
In its own way, this may be a competitive heat as Rathagan and Quiet Word could be of interest.
Richard Hughes [Rathagan] is a bay colt and son of Kyllachy. He ran in a small field of just four horses at Nottingham in heavy going when the blindfold was removed slowly. Added to the fact, Rathagan was slowly into stride did him no help. He finished a creditable runner-up.
Quiet Word is quite an interesting filly. This daughter of Dandy Man races in the familiar silks of the Ontoawinner & partner syndicate who are no stranger to winners. She cost 46,000 euros at the yearling sales. Without a doubt, this filly has been held in some regard as borne out by the fact she was 5/6f when disappointing on debut in soft going at Nottingham. A temperamental type, she was unruly at the start when withdrawn at Redcar but looked much better frame of mind when returning last month at Kempton when racing over 6f. She led for most before tiring in the closing stages to finish fifth beaten almost ten lengths. On the face of it, she looks disappointing if not limited but there was some promise in that last effort. Dropping back to the minimum trip should be positive. There is always a fear a third start (after two disappointing efforts) may be leading to another poor run with a handy nursery mark in mind.
Conclusion: The Bell Conductor is a fair juvenile although you always have to take it on trust horses will like this surface. Considering he ran well last time out on heavy going it shouldn't be a problem. In truth, this doesn't look the easiest of races to win. In fact, for this course, it is a tough-looking contest. Auchterarder and Royal Context have proven they can win but need to defy their penalties. To their credit, Johnston's filly won well on debut and a Listed race entry gives hope this horse has some class. Royal Context is a decent juvenile and won well last time and proven to go on the surface. The drop-down in distance may see him outpaced in the early stages. Rathagan isn't without hope if starting on terms. In addition, Quiet Word may have claims at the price.
I would have to take a watching brief.
Sorry for the lack of posts these last couple of days. Eric has a problem with the internet (Talk Talk) and hopefully, they sort the problem within the next 24 hours.
Sorry for the inconvenience.
SOUTHWELL 2.00
A full house of 14 taking part in this race but only 4 of them have done a time fast enough to register on my speed figures, Dandy Highwayman is my 4th top rated but it looks to be the only natural frontrunning type in the race and from stall 7 it could get across to the rail or very close to it and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch for most of these, First Excel who is on a losing streak of 16 comes out 3rd best on my figures but is in the widest stall so may need some luck, the 3year old Jill Rose is top rated on c/d times and 2nd top overall but the trainers 0-13 record at this course doesnt inspire confidence but it could go well, my top rated on overall figures is WILD FLOWER 5/1 but its best time did come from Lingfield and if going back to 2017 it had an even faster time from Wolverhampton, it has won on turf on good to soft ground so could easily take to this surface and if doing so could complete the hattrick.
Wild Flower 14/1 Unp
SOUTHWELL 2.30
This is a strange race and with seven 3-year-olds in the race it makes it very hard to analyse to a satisfactory conclusion and there's one even bigger reason why I'm going to leave this race alone is because I'm not sure of all the entrants preferred racing style so the make-up of this race is very muddled and best to save my money for another race.
KEMPTON 6.40
Only 8 runners with just one known frontrunner in the race but Velvet Moon could be setting the race up for a finishing type, Excellent George comes out 4th best on c/d times but 2nd top if using its best Chelmsford time, Benny And The Jets is 3rd best on c/d times but that was from 2018 and may struggle to stay if there's a fast early pace, LAST PAGE 8/1 only produced a slow time when finishing 2nd over this c/d and could struggle a little if there's a really fast early pace but that may not happen here and the jockey booking looks a positive move, BIG LACHIE 7/1 has only slow times to its name over this c/d but a time from Lingfield this year would see it winning this race quite cosily but the jockeys 0-8 record for this stable is a little off-putting enough for me to have to go with 2 selections and I will split my stake between them both because they both look better value than I was expecting.
Last Page 8/1 1st
Big Lachie 10/1 4th
NEWCASTLE 7.45
TIZWOTITIZ is 0-3 on the Aw tracks and has only slow times at this distance so not for me.
HERRINGSWELL is 0-11 on the AW but hasn't raced over this distance on the AW but may need further to show its best.
GRIGGY its only run over this c/d produced a slow time and has looked a better prospect over a shorter trip.
POPPY MAY 16/1 hasn't any course form to its name but its best time at Wolverhampton would make it my 3rd top-rated and could try to lead all the way here and could be an EW bet.
INDEPENDENCE DAY 5/1 has a time at Wolverhampton in 2018 that would make it my 2nd top-rated but its best this year is 10lb below that level and is on a losing run of 16 races.
ALFRED THE GREY is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics but may need further to show its merit.
THE BULL 5/1 comes out 4th on my figures despite racing as though this distance is a bit too far for it and this race might not be run to suit it with 2 frontrunners in the race.
KING OF ROOKS this one also may find this too far for it and is 0-10 on the AW and is on a 22 race losing run.
COFFEEMEANSCOFFEE I'm not sure what to expect from this one but it has only slow time/s over this c/d and may prefer further.
TARNHELM is 0-10 on the AW and losing run of 10 as well and only a slow time over this c/d.
EXTRASOLAR hasn't shown much timewise for quite a while now and is 0-15 on the AW and looks better over shorter.
TARZAN hasn't any form over this c/d and on a losing run of 18 races, it may either need further or could be a bit of a hidden danger.
BITHLAH has only poor form to its name in its 4 runs and mya need further to shine.
ROCKLEY POINT is on a losing run of 13 but is my top rated and its the 2nd known frontrunner in the race and it could lead all the way here.
SUMMARY: Not a great race with just 4 of the runners with recorded speed figures, The Bull, Poppy May and Independence Day could possibly make the frame and be worth EW bets if of value, but my money will be riding on ROCKLEY POINT 7/1 in the hope it can lead or at least contest the lead from start to finish.
Rockley Point 15/2 2nd
CHELMSFORD 7.00
THREE LITTLE BIRDS has only slow times at this distance and looks a much better prospect over a shorter trip than this 6 furlongs.
IN THE RED hasn't any recent distance form to work with and looking back it seems as though this one might prefer a longer trip to shine.
SOMETHING LUCKY would need to improve timewise to win this race but it does usually stay on strongly at this trip but maybe too late here.
CASE KEY 15/2 hasn't shown much in 4 previous AW runs but it has a time from the turf on good to firm going that would give it a chance of making the frame but would need to improve to win this race and its not really an each-way price.
DESERT FOX (NON-RUNNER) will be staying on strongly at the finish in this race and it comes out joint top rated on my unique speed figures so has to be considered as a potential winner.
GOOD ANSWER hasn't any AW form to its name and analysing its form on grass it might need a slower surface than this one to show its best.
POETA BRASILEIRO 7/2 is one of 2 known frontrunners in the race and being my 3rd top-rated it could prove hard to catch for some of its opponents, it's now my 2nd top-rated but isn't an each-way price.
REGULATOR is 0-6 on the AW tracks and has lost its last 18 races and may really need a longer trip to show its true worth.
REAL ESTATE is just outside my top 3 using its best 2018 time and it's another that will be trying to stay on strongly at the business end of the race.
BORN TO FINISH15/2 has only slow times to its name recently and its best from 2018 would put it just out of the frame and hasn't won in its last 10 runs, it's now 3rd best on overall figures but again it's not really an each-way price.
HIC BIBI this one only has slow times to its name over this distance and I think a longer trip may pay dividends with this horse.
LALANIA is the other horse in the race that looks a natural frontrunner but timewise it's only my 5th top-rated so the race could be set up for a finishing type.
SENORITA GRANDE 10/3 is well weighted on its best time and has good trainer and jockey statistics to make me think connections expect a big run in this race.
KODILINE is on a losing run of 14 which isn't a good sign and its best time from 2018 would see it just outside the frame and maybe better over further.
SUMMARY: I think the two frontrunners, Poeta Brasiliro and Lalania will set the race up for something coming from off the pace and there's plenty who race in that style although the former could do enough to hold on for a place, SENORITA GRANDE 10/3 who is now my joint top-rated, my stakes may be tilted in favour of the latter a 3-year-old who could have some improvement to come but I will back them both, now all my money will be riding on it.
Senorita Grande 5/1 6th
NEWCASTLE 3.45
My top 4 ratings have all recorded their best times this year, I think Ascended my 4th top-rated and Bugler Bob in 3rd top spot could feasibly make the frame here but would need to improve timewise to win this race, *EPEIUS 6/1 is my 2nd top-rated and the trainer has a decent strike rate at this course and has to be on my shortlist, my top rated is LUCKY LODGE 7/1 but this ones losing run of 21 is a little off-putting and the stable also has the 3yo Daafr in the race and it would appear on jockey bookings this one might be the more fancied of the pair from the Antony Brittain yard or it could be a ruse to throw people off the scent, I will as always stick with the proven but might have a covering bet on the 3yo if its fancied in the betting.
* NR
Lucky Lodge 8/1 1st
NEWCASTLE 5.25
There's 5 horses in this dash that have been known to lead before but none of them are in my top 4 ratings but Hard Solutions stall 11 and Longroom stall 5 could do best of the front runners, Landing Night comes out 4th best on this years times and its best from last year would only move it to 3rd top spot, the 3yo Be Proud is my original 3rd top-rated so could go well here, Henley is top rated on c/d times from this year and usually stays on strongly at the finish over this distance if I look at Wolverhampton times QAARAAT 6/1 is top rated but its on a losing run of 21 and is a maiden on the AW tracks after 9 attempts, my stakes in this race will be kept low and I might even dutch my top 4 if its of value.
Qaaraat 7/1 1st + F/C £31.30 + T/C £212.50
NEWCASTLE 8.00
This dash has only 1 natural frontrunning type in the race with Star Cracker my 3rd top-rated having been known to lead if nothing else wants to but it could be enough to see it make the frame, Encoded is my 4th top-rated but hasn't been in good form lately and the jockey booking does look a positive move so it could go well, Little Miss Lola comes out joint top-rated but I have had to delve back to 2017 to find that time so I'm not if it can repeat its best from that long ago, my top rated is LORD OF THE GLEN 5/1 who is the one I expect to try and set the pace in this race, I would be more confident if it wasn't on a losing run of 27 races but there's a few others in the race with long losing runs but it does mean my stakes won't be at full strength.
Lord Of The Glen 13/2 4th
KEMPTON 4.40
This class 7 race is pretty bad even for its level, over half the field have losing runs in double figures and theres only one known front runner who isnt well drawn in stall 11 and its overall times have been slow even for this level so any stakes will have to be kept low, delving as deep as I can I think I can narrow the race down to four that have at some point or another gone fast enough to register on my speed figures, Jaganory is on a losing run of 14 and is still a maiden after 10 runs on the AW tracks and I had to go back to 2014 to find a recorded time, dont worry too much about the negatives because those not mentioned have even less going for them, Drop Kick Murphi is also an AW maiden after 10 attempts and its best time came from Lingfield in 2018, the topweight Hollander is top rated on 2019 c/d times but it is a bit below what the other 3 have achieved but being a recent time that has to be a bonus, the one that I will be backing is the 3yo *PRINCE ROCK 10/3 who is a maiden after 23 runs and 16 of them have been on AW surfaces and the apprentices 7lb claim could swing things even more in its favour.
* NR
KEMPTON 8.10
The jump up to the dizzy heights of a class 6 race but only half of the 12 runners have times fast enough to register on my figures, there are 4 runners that have been known to lead before and one of them is MONT KIARA 12/1 who is drawn in stall 1 so I'm hoping it will gain control of the rails and either lead or at least contest the lead from the off and then prove hard to catch, my 2nd top-rated is The Lacemaker who is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics but it might not be able to lead from stall 5 in the make-up of this race but it could still run a big race here if getting a clear run, *PAPA DELTA 4/1 is only 3rd top-rated on this years c/d times but if it can repeat its best time from Chelmsford it would be winning cosily but I can't see any other option than backing them both to cover the frontrunning and the fast-finishing angles.
Mont Kiara 14/1 9th
* NR
KEMPTON 4.40
SWISS PRIDE my top-rated on 2019 course and distance times and to move it even further clear is the apprentice jockeys claim.
MUJAASAM has a time from 2018 that would make it my top-rated but it needs to improve timewise on what it's done so far this year.
POUR LA VICTOIRE hasn't any c/d form to its name from this year but its old form from 2016 would put in the mix and has been in decent form on the turf recently.
STEELRIVER comes out 3rd best on my figures and I think its purple patch of form is on the decline as it gets in the grips of the handicapper.
FLOWING CLARETS is 0-16 on the AW tracks which is off-putting and I'm not sure this surface suits it and a longer trip could help.
PETTOCHSIDE hasn't shown much timewise since 2017 and it's another who I think doesn't really like this surface.
SWENDAB can lead but can struggle to stay this trip if there's a fast early pace but if allowed to dictate it can't be ignored.
SUMMARY: The only sprint of the day is a class 5 claiming affair that's a quite open race, Swendab is the only known frontrunning type but this ones a lot better at 5 furlongs so if pushed for the lead it could/should fade but could be dangerous if allowed to dictate a slow enough pace and then kick from the front, Steelriver had a very long losing run to its name and then hit a rich vein of form but looks on the decline again now, Mujaasam is top-rated using its best 2018 time but has not run here for quite a while, my pittance will be riding on the topweight SWISS PRIDE 2/1 a 3yo that could still improve and the apprentices 7lb claim could be enough to sway things in its favour but my stakes won't be at full strength.
Swiss Pride 2/1 1st
