SOUTHWELL 12.50
This claimer with 10 runners is very hard to fathom what's likely to happen. Ive marked down 2 potentially hidden horses in the race and one of them THE RIGHT CHOICE 5/1 is the only known front runner, so if allowed to lead could steal the honours by leading all the way, the bottomweight Fortinbrass could be thereabouts but im not sure with the apprentice booked to ride’s poor record for the stable, Epeuis’s, my joint 2nd top rated, trainer is 0-24 here in the last 5 years, they also run First Breath, so that puts me off the pair of them, KOMMANDER KIRKUP 4/1 is the other joint 2nd top rated and won last time out so its definitely in form and could follow up here, DREAM ALLY 16/1 is top rated and its a hold up horse drawn in stall 1 so could get a run around the inside of the track and stay on strongly at the finish and looks the each way value call in the race but truthfully I cannot confidently narrow it down any further than the 3 selections so I will look to dutch them all to show a profit whichever one does the business.
The Right Choice 5/1 1st
Kommander Kirkup 4/1 4th
Dream Ally 50/1 9th
SOUTHWELL 1.50
This class 6 race is quite dire and I've only got 4 runners with times fast enough to register on my graphs, Honey Gg won last time out but in slow run race and a few behind that day didn't run to their best mainly because of the slow early pace, Sir Geoffrey is my 3rd best rated and could get either the lead or a prominent position from stall 7 on this straight 5 furlong course and the rest of the early paced horses are drawn higher, Archimedes, another possible pacesetter, is my top-rated until I take off points because of the jockeys 0-31 record for this stable, so they may be waiting for another day to win with this one, I will be having a small bet each way, on DECISION MAKER 18/1 as the trainer has a 15% win rate at this course and the jockey is 1-4 for this stable so maybe the connections are expecting a big run here after a poor run last time out behind today's topweight and it looks the value call in the race.
Decision Maker 18/1 4th
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00
ORNATE hasn't any recent c/d form and its best from way back in 2015 wouldn't see it make the frame I would look to lay this one.
FOXY FOREVER has only produced slow times recently and its best from 2017 would still see it outside the places and may need this run for fitness, so another to lay.
DISCREET HERO I have gone back to 2016 for this ones best c/d form, it may need this run for fitness and its 2017 time would only see it in 4th top spot so maybe another to lay.
SHAMSHON a front-running type with the plum draw in stall 1, its got good trainer, 17% wins ratio, and jockey, 24% wins ratio, stats, and my top rated.
LANDING NIGHT its best time from 2017 wouldn't see it make the frame here but it hasn't run here before this year but it's not for me so another possible lay.
JOEGOGO my 2nd top rated but drawn widest of all and may struggle early doors here but can stay on at the finish and may make the frame.
YOU'RE COOL is one that likes to front run and could be ok from stall 7 in the make-up of this race and make the frame and 3rd best on my figures.
LORD OF THE GLEN the 3rd known front-runner in the race in stall
8 but timewise it's not in my top 4 so may struggle to even make the frame.
BELLEGARDE always runs as though a longer distance would suit it better than this minimum trip but may stay on too late here.
SUMMARY With 3 possible front-runners this race should be run at a good pace, the one that could benefit if they go off too fast is Joegogo but You're Cool is my 3rd best and a front-runner and also my top rated likes to set the pace and with stall one and the fastest time I'm more than just hoping that SHAMSHON 5/2 can lead here and get control on the rails and then lead all the way to follow up its win last time out.
Shamshon 5/2 6th
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15
HELLO GIRL hasn't any c/d form and its time on g/f was on the slow side and its maybe a better horse over a shorter distance.
PEGGYS ANGEL has run here once in a slow time and its turf form on g/f going doesn't make me think it will like this surface.
LITTLE PALAVER another with no c/d form to work with but is best time from Kempton would see it making the frame but needs to improve for the switch to this surface to win this race and poorly drawn in stall 12 for a possible pacesetter.
ANONYMOUS JOHN this one is the type that likes to lead but won't get an easy lead here and timewise it's just outside my top 3 ratings.
DANECASE has only run here once but in a slow time and looking at its best aw time it needs to improve a good few pounds to win here.
KATHEEFA has got the plum draw in stall 1 but may get squeezed out early as the 3 known front runners cut across to the rails.
FARAASAH this one hasn't run here before and its best times from Lingfield leave it with quite a bit to find.
HIGHLAND ACCLAIM has run well on the aw tracks but hasn't won in 20 previous attempts and I can't see why that should change in this race.
HARRY BEAU comes out 3rd best on c/d times and is usually running on strongly at the finish but maybe too late in this race unless the leaders fade.
MONUMENTAL MAN this is the 3rd and final front-running type and in the make-up of this race, it could be the one to gain control of the rails and my joint top rated.
DELILAH PARK is the other joint top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish but drawn inside the pacesetters it could get squeezed in the early stages.
LAUBALI this 3-year-old races as though it will need a longer distance to show its true potential and may get outpaced in the early stages here.
IT'S ALL A JOKE hasn't any c/d form to work with and its best time from Chelmsford would leave it with a bit to find and may be better over a shorter distance.
SUMMARY: I'm not sure this race is one to be getting too heavily involved in betting wise, there's 3 or 4 in the field that could be dangers if taking to this surface, then another few that could be competing to make the frame but I'm hoping in the make-up of this race my selection MONUMENTAL MAN 13/2 can from stall 6 get to the front and take control on the rail and then kick on entering the straight and lead all the way to the line.
Monumental Man 13/2 4th
KEMPTON 7.45
HELVETIAN is a 3-year-old that can be held up or track the leaders and ought to get a good early position from stall 2 from which to attack.
Merlin has only a slow time at this c/d from just 1 run but has done a fast time on good to firm going so could be a danger if liking this surface, it could attempt to lead but may need some luck from stall 10.
Watchable is still a maiden on the all-weather tracks after 8 attempts resulting in a relatively slow time last time out over this c/d it could try? to set the pace but needs to improve.
Outrage comes out 4th best on my figures despite looking much better over shorter distances so will have to be held up for a late run here.
Me Too Nagasaki hasn't any form at this distance and nothing points to the drop in distance helping its cause so not for me in this race.
Exchequer hasn't any c/d form and on other form it looks as though it will need a longer trip before it starts to show its full potential.
Drakefell is a 3-year-old who has to be held up at this distance as it always looks better over a shorter trip and its best time makes it only 6th top rated.
Al Asef the 3rd of four 3-year-olds in this race, it usually likes to track the leaders but hasn't shown much this year so one I would omit in this race.
Busby the 4th and final 3-year-old in the race, it usually tracks the pacesetters and then stays on the stronger at the finish and this race could be run to suit it.
Sesretinthepark hasn't any c/d form to its name but recorded a time elsewhere which would make it 3rd top but that's on a different surface but is a versatile sort with its racing tactics.
SUMMARY: A nice looking class 3 race with 3 front-running types so it should be a true run race, Merlin, Outrage and Busby could all be battling to make the frame here but my money will be going on the topweight HELVETIAN 10/1 who takes over top spot when taking off the apprentices 7lb allowance and he's already ridden 8 winners for this stable so it looks a positive move but my stakes won't be at full strength in an each way bet.
Helvetian 12/1 5th
CHELMSFORD 8.30
This race is quite hard to analyse to a conclusion, there's only 2 of the 10 runners that I can discount, one I'm not sure about and 3 that look potential dangers so any stakes will be on the low side, Equimou’s best time was recorded in 2017 but it hasn't ran here before this year, Excellent George has got the prime draw for a horse that can set the pace, Bowson Fred would be my top rated if I went back to its best time but it was in 2016 but would need to bounce back to form, the 3-year-old Dotted Swiss hasn't run at this c/d before but has a fast time from Lingfield, so there's positives and negatives against the 4 I've mentioned plus the pre-mentioned possible dangers it looks more a race to watch an savour than to be risking any money but if pushed the value call is maybe an each way bet on DOTTED SWISS 12/1.
Dotted Swiss 10/1 8th
CHELMSFORD 9.00
Down to class 7 for this race which doesn't inspire most people but I love the all-weather racing, that's not to say I get everything right, far from it in fact, I can discount 5 of the 14 runners but there's only 2lbs between my top 5 ratings, the 3-year-old Moremoneymoreparty is 5th best with a rating of 66, it usually tracks the leaders but is 0-8 on the aw tracks, joint 3rd top on 67 are Fly True, a hold up type, and Monarch Maid who is very versatile with its racing tactics. Joint top rated om 68 are Blistering Dancer who can struggle to stay this distance if there's a real fast early pace so has to be held up for a late run and POPPY MAY 12/1 who is the only natural front running type in the race, so if it can get the fractions right from the front it could lead all the way from stall 6 in the make-up of this race and when this jockey rides for the stable he does quite well with a 16% win rate with the older horses.
Poppy May 12/1 1st
KEMPTON 6.00
With 10 runners the data is a bit muddled, Island Of Life won last time out but not on this surface and I've a niggling doubt it will suit it but I've been wrong before, Eljaadif would be in the mix with its best time but that was last year, GULLIVER 11/1 would be top rated on its 2017 time but hasn't run over this c/d this year so maybe it will or maybe it won't but the price maybe makes it an each way value bet, top-rated using this years times is POLYBIUS 10/3 who is a hold up type but the problem is the lack of known pacesetters so I will go with the 2 selections hoping at least one of them does the business but my stakes won't be at full strength with a few possible dangers.
Gulliver 11/1 2nd
Polybius 7/2 4th
NEWCASTLE 7.45
This is a very poor race where I would discard 6 of them quite readily, Rock In Society is a 3 year old that has shown very little but could be a hidden danger here, French would be top rated using a Wolverhampton time but has only produced slow times here and hasn't been in good form lately, Dandy Highwayman is another that would merit respect on a Wolverhampton time but hasn't produced a recordable time here, the selection has to be BREATHOFFRESHAIR 7/4 who won so easily last time out, admittedly it wasn't a really fast time but the form looks solid and it looks the safest bet in the race but I
doubt the price will be very appealing but I
cannot find a confident alternative.
Breathoffreshair 5/2 2nd
NEWCASTLE 8.15
This 5 furlong dash looks quite good for its class with 2 known front runners and 2 more that have been known to lead at times so it should be a true run affair, Novabridge is one of the latter who could lead but doesnt have to, its run some decent races this year but a fair bit below its best 2017 form and age may be catching up with this 10 year old, Fuel Injection would be competitive on its best from last year but been 7lb or more below that this year but another that could run well, my selection has to be MARSEILLE 5/1 who showed a return to form was imminent when finishing 3rd last time out over an extra furlong and this drop in distance will suit it better and the claiming apprentice’s 3lb allowance should help its cause.
Marseille 6/1 7th
LINGFIELD 12.50
The topweight Kraka has a fast time from Chelmsford but hasn't run here before but the trainers record of 0-50 in the last 5 years at this course but timewise it could still make the frame (checking place chances takes too long to make it worthwhile so I only check winning stats) Wotadoll is my 2nd top rated and a possible pacesetter but might either struggle or use too much energy to lead from stall 11 but never say never but my top rated is another possible pacesetter in the shape of VERY HONEST 5/1 coming from stall 3 so could gain control of the rails and hopefully lead all the way, the trainer has a decent 19% win rate here which bodes well and I'm hoping I can ignore its form recently as it hasn't led in any of them but has a good chance to here and change its fortunes.
Very Honest 5/1 2nd
LINGFIELD 1.20
There's quite a bit of conflicting form from different surfaces and tracks or older form and to be honest there's 7 of the 10 runners that I cannot discount from the list of possible winners but I'm going to put my neck on the line and go with the 3-year-old JOEGOGO 8/1 who could get the lead here despite being in stall 6 and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch if able to reproduce a time from Southwell but has raced on this surface before without much to show for it so my stakes will be kept on the low side.
Joegogo 12/1 4th
LINGFIELD 2.20
This 5 furlong dash has 4 possible pacesetters and maybe Just That Lord will do best of them but I think it will be won from off the pace, I've only got 2lbs between my top 3 so any of them could win if reproducing their best but I have gone back to last year for the best times of Verne Castle and Alsvinder as neither have ran over this c/d this year but TOMILY 13/2 did record his time this year which swings things in its favour plus the trainers 18% win ratio at this course but I would look to have covering bets on the other 2 as insurance.
Tomily 13/2 8th
LINGFIELD 3.20
This looks very much a race that will be won from the front as my top 4 are possible pacesetters in the race, Entertaining Ben is my 4th top in stall 3, 3rd top in stall 9 is Come On Dave who would prefer to be drawn nearer the rails, Independence Day is 2nd best and in stall 8 but my top rated is KING CRIMSON 11/2 who has got the plum draw in stall one, I have gone back to 2016 for its best time but hasn't run over this c/d in 2017 or this year and I'm hoping the switch to here will rejuvenate its form especially with the trainers 18% win rate here and the jockeys 19% win rate for the stable.
King Crimson 8/1 5th
WOLVERHAMPTON 3.45 Div1
RED STRIPES 3/1 is my top rated using 2018 c/d times and could lead all the way here but its not won for 23 races it has to be a selection but maybe just as a covering bet, some horses run good time after time without winning but I cannot completely rule this one out and would have been a decent each way bet if the price had been bigger, SOCIAL BUTTERFLY 2/1 won for me last time out but in a slowish time but is capable of better looking at a 2017 time so another possible winner but the price is skinnier than I hoped, SIENNA SAYS 25/1 is top rated using a Newcastle time from this year and its one of only 2 known front running types in the race but has only recorded a slow time at this c/d but from only 2 or 3 runs so has to be included with an each way bet, Celerity has 1 fair time from last year but its still a maiden after 54 races, Storm Trooper has 1 time from 2017 at Newcastle that would make it competitive but is 0-15 on the all weather including a slow time at this c/d, so I will go with 3 selections and probably tip in favour of the bigger priced horse as it looks the value call in the race and also have 2 covering bets on the other 2 selections.
Social Butterfly 2/1 1st
Red Stripes 7/2 3rd
Sienna Says 25/1 10th
WOLVERHAMPTON 4.15 Div2
This 2nd division is definitely the poor relation and ive got it down to 3 quite easily, Tonis A Star won last time out in a slowish time but its a possible pacesetter from stall 2 but ive got 2 horses with times fast enough to register on my figures, LITTLE MISS LOLA 12/1 has only run at this c/d once in a slowish time but has a time from Newcastle last year that would make it my top rated and from stall 1 it should be able to get a good early position against the rails from which to stay on strongly at the finish, ive got ZIPEDEEDODAH 9/2 with the fastest c/d time and has recorded decent times both this year and last year and is the only other known pacesetter in the race I think the winner will come from those mentioned but im hoping Zipedeedodah can compete for the lead and unsettle the topweight but I will be backing the 2 selections to cover both angles and probably in favour of the bigger priced Little Miss Zola with an each way bet and a covering bet on the front running Zipedeedodah.
Little Miss Lola 20/1 4th
Zipedeedodah 9/2 6th
SOUTHWELL 1.30
A nice race for class 6 where I can discard the bottom 4 in the handicap and number 2 leaving the other 3 as possible winners, FIRST EXCEL 2/1 is 3rd top but has both good trainer, 15%, and jockey 29%, winning stats but the price looks as though the bookies also think so with such a small price, Eponina is my 2nd top rated but is still a maiden on the all-weather after 8 runs which is a little off-putting, the topweight KOMMANDER KIRKUP 5/1 is top rated and its time was recorded this year, I will back the latter as my main bet but will have a saving bet on First Excel.
Kommander Kirkup 5/1 1st + Ex £15.50 + TRI £55.90
NEWCASTLE 8.15 Div1
The 3-year-old Viking Way is the only known pacesetter in the race but needs to improve to win but could be dangerous if allowed to set its own pace, Yorkshire Pudding is in my top 3 but has relatively low trainer/jockey stats and hasn't won in 15 attempts on the all-weather tracks, another contender is Breathoffreshair but hasn't been in the same level of form in 9 runs this year, my selection will be SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE 11/4 who hasn't run at this c/d this year but the jockey booking looks a positive move, but my stakes won't be at full strength and the price is a bit shorter than I had hoped.
Spirit Of Zebedee 9/2 3rd
NEWCASTLE 8.45 Div2
Only 2 known pacesetters in this division but neither look capable of winning the race, my 3rd top rated is SANTAFIORA 5/1 but it's using a Wolverhampton time but the jockey booked has a 21% win rate on the stables older horses so they may be expecting a big run here, French is 2nd top rated but again using a Wolverhampton time and its not won in 12 previous all-weather runs which puts me off a little, top-rated I KROY 6/1 who’s the best time can here last year but hasn't run here recently so I'm hoping coming back here will bounce it back to form and the apprentice jockeys claim could help its cause and for an apprentice having stall 14 might make things a bit less complicated for an inexperienced jockey.
Kroy 6/1 2nd Santafiora 5/1 6th
There are usually plenty of Ballydoyle talking horses over the winter that are bound for stardom the year after, but those are usually the ones aimed at classics and other middle distance races. However, one horse could be about to be the exception to that trend, and that is Ten Sovereigns. He goes into the winter unbeaten as a two-year-old, and he looks set to have a huge campaign in 2019. However, his best days may be in the sprinting division, meaning he will miss his chance to compete in a classic and go for the big middle distance pots.
The bay colt ended his two-year-old campaign three from three, rounding off with a Group One win in the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket in September. He won a maiden on debut in striking fashion and added a Group Three to his name before winning the Group One Middle Park. There is a lot to like about how he moves through a race, and excitement around the horse continues to grow. He should come back bigger, stronger and potentially better next season. This could push him to be rated as one of the best horses in training over any distance.
So far we have seen him run over six furlongs on all three of his starts, a distance that looks likely to be his best. He is out of the Group winning sprinter No Nay Never and has certainly inherited a lot of his speed. He has a very high cruising speed, which is ideal for the pace that sprint races are run at. The bookmakers also think that is the case, and have been impressed by the speed he has shown so far in his young career.
Have a look here for example of that, where you will see him priced up as favourite already to win the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next summer. That race is run over a distance of six furlongs, bringing together some of the very best three-year-old sprinters in the world. To see him priced up as a favourite for that race already at this very early stage is a credit to him and what he has shown us on the racecourse so far.
Just like every other season for many years now, as we go into the winter we will hear about Ballydoyle horses who are growing nicely, looking set for very good three-year-old campaigns. Although Ten Sovereigns may not be aimed at the typical races you would see Ballydoyle horses running in, he could be one of the very best to come out next season - and one that can take the sprinting world by storm when we do see him reappear. Early season targets are not set in stone just yet like they are for middle-distance horses but a race like the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot has to be on the long-term agenda for this young sprinter.
