CARLISLE 2.45
The 3 at the bottom of the handicap are capable of recording fast times but usually in lower class races so may struggle to win here but could feasibly make the frame if others falter, my joint 3rd top rated are Mr Orange a hold up type and Highly Sprung who has been known to lead before and I think stall 1 is ideal and could be hard to catch for most of the field and has to be considered as a possible winner if my top 2 dont get a clear run, but I have got Carlell Cleave rated 3 lbs higher in top spot but this one doesnt really want fast going but could run a big race my top rated is FIRMDECISIONS 12/1 who finished 2nd last time out at Leicester and recorded a time only 4lbs below its best from last year, this one started off as my 2nd top rated but the apprentices 3lb claim moves it to top pot and will be carrying my money as an each way bet, I wasnt really expecting such a big price, but my stakes won't be at full strength mainly because of its stall 11 draw and I will have a covering bet on Highly Sprung at 9/2
REDCAR 4.05
A strange race for a class 3 affair, there's a couple of known front runners but they are not in my top 4 ratings, Blue De Vega, Bowson Fred and Duke Of Firenze are my 4th to 2nd top rated and all 3 of them are on long losing runs and none of them wants the going to be really fast, while my top rated Nibras Again usually records its best times in lower class company so this race is maybe best left alone and watched.
WINDSOR 6.30
A nice looking Listed class race but it might be a bit of a one-horse race if my figures are right, The Tin Man 13/8 is well known in this class of race but the price is way too short in my opinion, its last 4 runs in 2018 were all Group 1 races and it started off last year by winning this race and it's my 2nd top rated so could go well but it doesn't seem to want really fast going and its 7lb penalty for winning a Group 1 race on soft ground may mean it will struggle to give 7lbs to the improving EMBLAZONED 7/2 who ran a good race when 2nd last time out on soft going and will be much more at home on this faster ground and I have it a good few spots clear so will definitely be my bet in the race.
WINDSOR 7.00
The 2 known front runners are not in my top 4 ratings so will most likely set the race up for a fast finisher unless one of them gets an easy lead and dictates at a slightly slower pace so its got enough in reserve to repel any challengers but I doubt that will happen here, Oeil De Tigre is capable of recording fast times but this 8-year-old usually does so in lower class than this class 3 affair, Tropics may be topweight but it still comes out 2nd top on my figures and is fit from a winter campaign on the all-weather tracks but I've got VEGAS BOY 7/2 rated 5 lbs higher and it has got a chance here to go one better than when finishing 2nd last time out at Ascot on good to soft ground so should relish this easier course and better going add on the 16% win ratio for the trainer at this course and the jockeys record is 20% win ratio for this stables older horses so I'm expecting connections think they have a decent chance here to get back to winning ways.
THIRSK 2.45
Rather unusual for a 5 furlong dash that's there's on 2 known front running types in the field of 17 but both are drawn high which is the favoured draw but neither are in my top 5 ratings so will most likely be setting the race up for one of the finishers, Lathom and Burmese Blazer can record fast times but usually in slightly lower class races but could make the frame, Excessable comes out 3rd best but stall 1 isn't ideal and will need some luck from such a low draw as will my 2nd top rated Duke Of Firenze who is in stall 5 and this ones 24 times raced losing run is off-putting plus it doesn't like really fast ground, my top rated is BASHIBA 10/1 who isn't ideally berthed in stall 9 and is on a 13 race losing run so any stakes in this race will be kept low in an each way bet.
Bashiba 10/1 12/1 Unp
THIRSK 3.55
In this 16 runner affair I've got ORION'S BOW 10/1 as my 4th top rated and in my opinion it could be the one to set the pace and stall 13 looks ideal, I think it could do enough to make the frame but not sure if it could hold on for the win but I will have a wager of some degree just in case it does lead all the way, Confessional has a good time recorded at Haydock and may find this trip too far on this course, Muscika is my 2nd top rated and usually stays on at the finish but again I'm not sure this undulating course will suit it, my top rated is JAWWAAL 9/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and in the make-up of this race stall 15 ought to be ideal for it to get a good tow into the race from which to attack close home but I will be going with 2 bets to cover both angles.
Orion's Bow 16/1 Unp
Jawwaal 9/2 Unp
NEWMARKET 5.35
There's no known front runners in this race which is always a problem, Harry Hurricane comes out 3rd top using a 2018 time but its been 26 races since this one has won but it could feasibly make the frame, in 2nd top spot I've got Equimou who recorded its best time again last year but it was at Haydock so I'm not sure if this undulating course will suit it as well but my top rated recorded its best time at Salisbury so this course shouldn't hold any fears for RIO RONALDO 16/1 and the jockey booked here has a decent 17% win ratio for this stables older horses so I'm hoping that's an omen for my chances in this race but with such a big price it has to be an each way wager.
Rio Ronaldo 16/1 3rd
DONCASTER 8.05
A big field of 18 makes analysis a lot harder and even looking at my top 6 ratings 5 of them have negatives against their names which points to them not performing to their best at this course and conditions on the day, Prestbury Park is my top-rated but this possible pacesetter is on a losing run of 17 which puts me off but it could easily spring back to winning ways as could many on losing runs, Bahamian Sunrise doesn't want really fast good to firm going and is on a 13 race losing run, Blazed likes to stay on strongly at the finish but has a 10 race losing run to overcome, Lucky Beggar actually won last time out but the trainer has a 0-41 record at this course, maybe the safest option is to side with ATHOLLBLAIR BOY 15/2 but stall 1 might not be ideal and most of the early pace is drawn high, I will probably dutch this race to varying stakes to cover the 5 I've mentioned maybe with the highest stakes on my selection and my top-rated horse.
Athollblair Boy 14/1 4th
NEWBURY 2.10
On paper this looks a cracking class 2 handicap sprint but for betting purposes its a bloody nightmare mainly because the horse I fancied in this race ran Wednesday at York where I gave it a lay but if *VIBRANT CHORDS 10/1 does turn out quickly it may be worth taking the tip and backing it but I doubt it will run and if it is a non runner I won't have a clue what to back and will most likely just watch the race and keep my money in my pocket.
*NR
NEWMARKET 5.15
This race is an apprentices race and they are not allowed to use their whips so I'm not clever enough to know which horses can run a true race without the use of the whip so the race is best left alone in betting terms but it could give some pointers for future races.
HAMILTON 8.35
There are 12 runners here but only one known frontrunner in the race, the 3-year-old Miss Sabina could improve but it is quite early in the season in my opinion when the youngsters become more competitive, Black Salt and Cool Spirit could be hidden dangers here which means my stakes won't be at full power, Naples Bay a hold up type and Vallarta who can be held up or track the leaders are my joint 3rd top rated and either could feasibly make the frame, I will be backing 2 horses in this race to cover the angles as MR WAGYU 28/1 is my 2nd top rated and the only known frontrunner I mentioned earlier and could pinch the race from the front if allowed to dictate the early pace and has to be worth an each way bet at the price but I have got MUJASSAM 11/2 rated higher and this one likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and I will be backing the pair of them.
Mr Wagyu 28/1 6th
Mujassam 11/2 7th
HAMILTON 9.05
Another race where I've got just one known frontrunner in the shape of Bronze Beau but this one is only 4th top on my ratings and should be setting the race up for a fast or strong finishing type, Highly Focussed won last time out and comes out 3rd best in this race and that fitness could pay dividends here, Oriental Splendour is on a losing run of 21 which is off-putting but its best time from Pontefract in 2017 would make it my 2nd top rated but its not shown enough recently to get me to back it, top on my figures is FUNKADELIC 14/1 who recorded its best time over this c/d last year, the trainer has a decent 17% win rate at this course with its older horse and the jockey has a 26% win ratio for this stable which is hopefully a positive pointer to connections expecting a big run in this race and will be burdened with my money in an each way bet at the price on offer.
Funkadelic 14/1 3rd
YORK 1.50
A large field of 22 runners and 6 or 7 known front running types amongst them so if the going is ok then it should be a fast and furious affair, on my figures Dark Shot in stall 14 and Harome in stall 10 who are just outside my top 4 should be pushing for the lead, Henley can produce fast times but usually in lower class races plus its been out of form lately and I cannot see that changing here, Line Of Reason is on a losing run of 11 races and maybe age is catching up with this 9 year old, Outrage is capable of going well but its a long while since this one won on turf but it could feasibly make the frame if repeating its best time, Justanotherbottle is a front running sort drawn in stall 5 while most of the other early paced sorts are drawn in double figure stalls, it hasnt run for 236 days but has won before after a break so cannot be dismissed and I would probably have had a covering bet on it if I was certain of its fitness, the one that will be lumbered with my money is OPEN WIDE 18/1 who either likes to track the leaders or be held up for a late run and in stall 13 here it should get a good tow into the race and then hopefully stay on the stronger at the finish but with such a large field my stakes will not be at full strength but I expect its price to be in double figures so could be worth a small each way punt.
Open Wide 18/1 7th
YORK 3.00
A Group 2 race here with 10 runners, the early pace may be set by those drawn low with Yafta in stall 1 and Ornate in stall 2 both front running types, as usual with top class sprints theres a lot of mixed formlines to muddy the waters and to be honest ive only narrowed it down to 4 that I think look the most likely winner and theres very little between the 4 of them on my speed figures so working down the card, LIMATO 7/1 can be held up or track the leaders, it s drawn in stall 9 but I doubt the draw will matter too much in this race the trainer has a good 19% win rate here and the jockey has a 26% win rate for this stable, BRANDO 5/1 has a decent time recorded every year since 2017 and ought to go well in this race, one ive already mentioned in ORNATE 66/1 who could be very hard to catch from the front as long as it doesnt go off too fast and then fade nearing the finish and for a top class course the trainer has a decent 15% win rate at York, the fourth horse im looking at is PROJECTION 10/1 who is drawn in stall 10 but this trainer also has a 15% win rate here with its older horses, I will be looking to dutch the four I put in capital letters.
Limato 7/1 4th
Brando 7/1 7th
Ornate 66/1 9th
Projection 12/1 Unp
BATH 5.55
A ten runner race over 5 furlongs 160 yards which is a strange distance and one I do sometimes find hard to work out whether you need a strong finishing 5 furlong horse a weak finisher over 6 furlongs but luckily my top rated in this race recorded its time over this c/d, Babyfact would be on my shortlist if this race was taking place in 2016 and 2017 and its recent form has been way short of then, theres a couple of known front runners in the race, Exceeding Diva who is my 3rd top rated but that is using a 2017 time from Salisbury so im not sure if itcan repeat its best again but it would actually need to improve or others falter for it to win this race, the topweight ROY'S DREAM 8/1 is the other possible pace setter and my 2nd top rated using a 2018 time recorded at Carlisle and if allowed to set its own pace it could pinch the race from the front but my top rated is Powerful Dream 3/1 who will be trying to stay on at the finish but isnt any value at the price, none of the runners has done a fast time this year so it is all a bit of a guess so my stakes won't be at full power.
Roy's Dream 8/1 1st
See Eric's Secret Tips
BEVERLEY 3.20
A big field of 17 runners and usually the type of race I leave well alone but with not many sprints for the first two days of the week ive had a look and something caught my eye, so now ive just got to hope the going isnt on the soft side of things, Qaaraat and Foxtrot Knight have times that could see them make the frame here but I am relying on 2018 times so not guaranteed they can do so again here but they are capable on their day, TAN has the best time recorded this year and may be the most reliable selection in the race and I will be having a bet on it as long as the going is ok, the horse that caught my eye though is EAST STREET REVUE 25/1 who recorded a time last year at Ripon that would see it romp home in this race but this horse is on the decline as a couple of years ago it was running in much better class affairs and maybe here it can show some of its old sparkle and spring back to winning ways and I will definitely be having a punt on it and at the price it has to be an each way wager but my stakes won't be at full strength in this race.
East Street Revue 25/1 1st
Tan 11/1 Unp
CHEPSTOW 3.30
A field of 15 here and 4 front running types in the race, so it should be a decent pace throughout as all 4 of them, are in my top 5 ratings, Alfies Angel’s best time from Carlisle 2018 is starting to look like a bit of a fluke result from the horse as its shown nothing like that since even then that time would only make it my 5th top rated so not for me in this race, Field Of Vision is my 4th top rated using a 2017 time and ran fairly close to a repeat of that time at Windsor 2018 so it could go well here but hasnt been in form lately so another I will omit, Swanton Blue comes out 3rd best using a Salisbury time in 2017 and then ran close to that again at Leicester last year but may need this run as it is its 1st race of the year, SECONDO 16/1 has a time recorded this year at Brighton which would make it my 4th top rated but the apprentices 5lb claim would move it to 2nd top spot so could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast and fade BUT and it is a big but, the trainers record at this course is 0-20 and the jockey is 0-5 which is off putting but maybe its just been unlucky and it will be carrying some of my money in an each way bet if the going is ok but top on my figures is WHO TOLD JO JO 13/2 who is another one that did its best time in 2017 but got close to it again in 2018 so could gow well again here and the jockeys 20% win ratio on the stables older horses look to be a positive move and will be my main bet in the race.
Secondo 16/1 3rd
Who Told Jo Jo 13/2 Unp
MUSSELBURGH 2.30
Quite a poor race in many ways and of the 12 runners.
I can discard half the field leaving me with 2 horses: Boudica Bay 6/1 and Bahlwan 11/4, who both won last time out but in slow times but I cannot discard either of them from my list of potential winners.
Mr Shelby 6/1 is the only runner with a time fast enough to register on my figures this year but it is only 4th top on all speed figures but the jockeys 1-2 strike rate makes me think connections are expecting a big run here.
Roaring Rory 10/1. I've gone back to 2017 at Beverley to find this ones best figure which would make it 3rd top rated. The trainer's 21% win ratio and the jockey's 29% win ratio on this stable older horses make me think its another runner where connections have high hopes.
Foxy Boy 14/1 is my 2nd top rated and this ones trainer has a decent 17% win rate with its older horses so maybe another one expected to go well, so has to go on my long shortlist and at the price it might be the value each way bet.
Groundworker 8/1 comes out top rated on a time from Thirsk in 2018 so has to be considered as a likely winner.
I think the winner will come from one of the horses mentioned but which one I haven't got a scooby. The betting may shed some light on the matter but unless there's something of real value I will most likely leave this race alone.
PS: Now the betting is up the call might be to have 2 each way bets on GROUNDWORKER 8/1 and FOXY BOY 14/1 as they are my 2 top rated but stakes will be kept low.
Groundworker 18/1 5th
Foxy Boy 18/1 8th
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.40
The turf courses will most likely be soft so no bets for me on that going and theres just this AW meeting but it hasnt got any older horse 5 or 6 furlong sprints so I decided to look through the shortest race for older horses which is why im posting for this race but any stakes will be kept low because its not my forte but here goes trying to use the same line of speed figures I use for my sprints, Fire Diamond has a time that makes it competitive but maybe its penalty for winning last time out will prevent it from winning but it could make the frame the same logic applies to International Law in that its 2 wins this year see it racing off a mark that may stop it from winning again but could run well and I have them on the same speed figure, one lower down the handicap that could go well is Street Poet who has finished 3rd on its last 2 runs, the one I will be backing is TORIANO 11/1 who won last time out at Lingfield over the mile trip on its only run this year after a 4 month break and to counteract its rise in the weights for that win the stable have employed a good 7lb claiming apprentice and at the price I think it should be worth a small each way wager.
Toriano 11/1 7th
CHELMSFORD 8.30
Back to my much preferred all weather racing, it might be mainly low-class racing but I love it, in this 9 runner race theres 3 confirmed front runners in Global Academy, Zac Brown and Our Oystercatcher and the former could be the one to do best of those setting the pace as it comes out 3rd best if it can reproduce its Kempton time here, Our Oystercatcher hasnt run over this distance on the aw before and I think it might be better on a slower surface, Zac Brown can go well when the mood takes it but fails to deliver often enough for me to fancy its chances, Equimou has its best time recorded this year which is a positive but timewise still a few spots off my top rated, Miracle Works needs to improve quite a bit on its best c/d time and its best ever speed figure from Wolverhampton which is a different surface would still see it a few pounds away from my top spot but does look to have a positive jockey booking, Zamjar has good trainer/jockey stats and its best time is over this c/d which is a positive but it does need to improve a bit timewise to win here and looks poor value to me at 2/1 favourite, Poyle Vinnie will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish and could make the frame as its my 4th top rated and its best time this year isnt far off of its best figure but at 7/2 it sure isnt an each way price, Something Lucky is my 2nd top rated but is on a losing run of 14 and appears to be a bit of a weak finisher, so running well without quite winning, my top rated is DYNAMO WALT 33/1 who has to overcome its last 3 poor runs but a repeat of its best time from 2018 would see it have a very good chance here to get back to winning ways and at the price it has to be an each way punt.
Dynamo Walt 33/1 8th
SOUTHWELL 6:05
A nice looking class 6 race with 11 entrants, I've got 4 that don't look as though this surface will suit them then another 4 that might prefer a longer distance to show their true merit which leaves me with my top 3 ratings, RED STRIPES 5/1 is 3rd top and a possible pacesetter in this race and could prove hard to catch for most of the field, the trainers 1-26 record is a little off-putting but the apprentice jockeys 2-7 record makes it look as though they fancy their chances and it will carry some of my money, Furni Factors is 2nd top rated but the trainers 1-42 record is poor and then add on the jockeys 0-22 record for the stable makes me think it may struggle in this race, top on my figures is KATH'S BOY 7/1 who likes to track the leaders and being drawn next door to the likely leader it ought to get a good tow into the race and then try to stay on the stronger at the finish, I will cover the angles by backing them both.
Red Stripes 5/1 1st
Kath's Boy 8/1 6th
SOUTHWELL 8.35
A maximum field of 14 here and 4 that have been known to lead before, my top 4 ratings are all on double-figure losing runs, a couple that has won over c/d but they were slow-run races the more I look at the race the more muddled it becomes and the race is maybe best left alone.
