WOLVERHAMPTON 5.10
At first glance this looks a poor poor race but delve a little deeper and I think it could be ok, Takeachancejimmy won 2 runs ago over a mile so not sure it can go the early pace here but will be staying on at the finish, Fly Tru comes out 2nd top rated using a time from 2017 and hasn't been on fire lately and may have been flattered on that 1 run last year, the front-running Frank The Barber did a fast time at Newcastle but that was way back in 2016 and maybe another that was towed along in a fast run race, its the same scenario with Archie Stevens who I have to go back to 2017 to find its best time, my selection has to be RED STRIPES 13/2 who has got the best chance its had for a long time to lead and set its own pace and has done its best time earlier this year over c/d when contesting the lead so I'm hoping it can lead all the way here from stall 2.
Red Stripes 13/2 2nd
NEWMARKET 5.35 (7.0)
IF, and it looks a big if, the going isn't on the soft side I will go with 2 selections in this race to cover both angles, MR WAGYU 11/1 starts off as my 2nd top rated but the 7lb apprentice booked, who is having their 1st ride for this stable, moves it to top spot by just 1lb and if getting the pace right it could lead all the way and the trainer has an 18% win rate at this course, CURIOUS FOX 9/2 was the original top rated and the jockey booked has a 2-6 record for the stable so they may be confident of following up its win last time out, so 2 bets for me.
Mr Wagyu 11/1 2nd
Curious Fox 10/1 7th
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.45
A very strange race where my top rated are the bottom 3 in the handicap and there's a few 3-year-olds that could improve plus a couple of front runners drawn widest of all in stalls 12 and 13 which could cause trouble for those drawn inside of them as they try to go across near the rails, Titus Secret is in stall 10 which isn't ideal so will need a clear run when trying to stay on at the finish, A SURE WELCOME 7/1 is my top rated and likes to track the leaders so stall 2 should be ideal as it could get control of the rails a length behind the leaders and if the gaps open at the right time it could win but its tight between my top 2 and my 2nd top rated is INDIAN AFFAIR 12/1 who is a front-runners and drawn in stall 1 so it could get control of the rails and try to lead all the way here and to cover the angles I will be backing them both.
Indian Affair 33/1 6th
A Sure Welcome 7/1 7th
NEWCASTLE 8.50 Div1
SIENNA SAYS-76 CELERITY-73? WINDFORPOWER-71 LADY JOANNA VASSA-70
A strange race, 14 runners over 5 furlongs and just 2 natural front running types taking part, there's about 5 I can discard easily but there is a few 3-year-olds that could be potential dark horses, Lady Joanna Vassa is a front-runner and my 3rd top rated but that is using a 2017 time and would need to bounce back to form to compete here but could possibly make the frame, Windforpower could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast and did show a return to form when 2nd last time out over this course and distance, top rated is the 3-year-old SIENNA SAYS 10/1 its the 2nd known front-runner and if this one gets to the front it could prove hard to catch and the trainer has a good 19% win record at this course with his 3-year-olds and at the price I will go with an each way wager.
Sienna Says 10/1 8th
NEWCASTLE 9.20 Div2
LITTLE KINGDOM-80 ASTROPHYSICS-74 THORNABY PRINCESS-72
If the 1st Division was strange I don't know what to make of this race where only the top weighted Roaring Rory 7/1 is known to front run and is my 4th top rated,(maybe the lack of frontrunners isn't for the lack of trying just that they are not usually quick enough to set the pace) so it could go well on only its 3rd run of the year, Thornaby Princess is 3rd best but has a long losing sequence to overcome as its best time was recorded last year, Astrophysics my 2nd top rated also showed its best speed figure in 2017 and its best time from 2016 would blow these away quite easily, LITTLE KINGDOM 10/1 comes out on top and that's from a time recorded this year but like quite a few in this race it's not won in a fair few races, I will back the top rated but I will also have a bet on the pacesetter in the race just in case it can lead all the way.
Little Kingdom 20/1 3rd
PONTEFRACT 3.45 (8.4)
Maid in India is my 3rd top rated using a Haydock time but needs to improve a few pounds to catch my top pair, NUNS WALK 6/1 is top rated but this is a step up in class so I'm not sure if it can be as competitive in this class 2 affair but it deserves to be allowed to try and it will be my selection along with PROCEDURE 5/1 a 3-year-old from a top stable and could improve further so I will back the 2 selections to show a profit whichever one wins but my stakes will probably tilt in the favour of the latter.
Nun's Walk 9/1 2nd
Procedure 5/1 7th
YARMOUTH 4.35 (7.4)
I hope all 8 take part, my 3rd top rated Lightning Charlie is one of two known front-runners in the race and its only 2lbs below Tan in 2nd spot and this is the other front-runner so they could set the race up for the topweight MAZZINI 7/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and this race could be run to suit its style.
Mazzini 7/1 1st
PONTEFRACT 5.25 (8.4)
Not a great race and no known pacesetters doesn't help my analysis but my top 3 are, Castlerea Tess is 3rd best using a Catterick time from 2017, it likes to track the leaders as do the 2 rated higher, Cliff is 2nd top on a time recorded at Ripon last year so needs to bounce back to form to be involved here, FULL INTENTION 12/1 is my top-rated despite it not winning from 19 previous races on grass but it has won on the all-weather and has been 2nd 6 times on turf so I hope it can break its duck here and with price permitting me to have each way bet that's exactly what line of attack I will deploy.
Full Intention 9/1 5th
CHELMSFORD 6.45
I love the all-weather racing and even though this is a class 6 race I still love it, theres a few, as I would expect, that I can discard but theres probably 5 that look the most likely winner, Monumental Man is a front runner, one of 5 in the race, but wouldnt want the early pace to be too fast and use up too much energy for the finish, Space War ought to be staying on strongly at the finish in this race, Awesome Allan is a front runner but hasnt won from 16 runs on the all-weather but could make the frame, *KRAKA 12/1 is my 2nd best but only 1lb below the top rated, it can track the pace or lead and in this race it may need to be covered up just behind the early pace and then stay on strongly at the finish, it ran on Tuesday and if turned out again so quickly it may be a good pointer, top rated is the versatile Bahamian Heights but this one best time was from 2017 and it hasnt shown much in recent runs so it won't be one I could back until it showed a bit of a spark, so I will be going with each way wager in this race.
* NR
SANDOWN 1.40 (8.2)
VIMY RIDGE-99 KASBAH-96 BELLEDESERT-86
I have to put BELLEDESERT 33/1 as an each way selection as its the only known front-runner in the field and with an easy lead could pinch this race from the front, Kasbah is my 2nd top rated but it keeps running well without winning so the handicapper isn't releasing its grip on the horse and its now got a long sequence of losing runs but it could make the frame, my top rated VIMY RIDGE 25/1 prefers to hear its hooves rattle on firm ground and a positive is the trainers good 2-5 record at this course but I will be backing them both each way to cover both angles.
Vimy Ridge 25/1 6th
Belledesert 66/1 4th
YARMOUTH 2.10 (7.4)
SYRIAN PEARL-78 OH SO SASSY-77 THE LACEMAKER-65
The 2 top rated are both from the same stable and could have the race between them, OH SO SASSY 5/1 is one of three possible pacesetters in the race and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch but it is on a fairly long losing streak but has a good chance to get back to winning ways here and the jocking booking seems to make this the stables favoured choice but on my figures the topweight SYRIAN PEARL 13/2 is 1lb better so it should be close between them and I will go with backing them both to show a profit whichever one wins.
Syrian Pearl 11/1 3rd
Oh So Sassie 9/1 8th
BEVERLEY 4.30 (7.0)
MUSHARRIF-102 SCOUNDREL-93 TWENTYSVNTHLANCERS-88
A large field of 17 and I can easily discard 10 of the runners, the 3 at the bottom of the handicap are well weighted on their best times but they may all be better in a lower class race and my selection MUSHARRIF 6/1 who won for me last time out when I tipped it up at 8/1 and it went on to win at 3/1 and its got every chance to follow up that win here and the trainer/jockey stats are both positives.
Musharrif 6/1 2nd
YARMOUTH 5.10 (7.4)
ENCORE D’OR-102 FOXY FOREVER-101 MERRY BANTER-99
The best class race of the day and just 6 runners, Merry Banter has been in good and deserves the chance to move up in class but this 2 step rise may be a bit too much for it but it can lead as can *FOXY FOREVER 6/1 and this one could make it hard for the top rated to catch it with a top jockey booked but the top-rated ENCORE D’OR 6/4 also has a positive jockey booked but the price is way too skinny for me, so in a 6 runner race I still have to go with backing 2 to cover both angles.
Encore D'Or 6/4 1st
* NR
REDCAR 3.40 (7.7)
I can only find ETIKAAL in this race that looks a natural front-runner and on a 2017 time it comes out 2nd top rated and if allowed an easy lead it could be hard to catch, SPIRIT OF WEDZA 5/1 is 3rd best on this years times but has a time from 2017 at Doncaster which would make it top rated so has to have a chance to win here but my top rated on 2018 times is EXTRASOLAR 10/3 who recorded its best at Carlisle, I cannot confidently narrow it down any further and I will look to dutch the 3 of them.
Extrasolar 17/2 4th
Etikaal 10/1 6th
Spirit Of Wedza 13/2 9th
YARMOUTH 3.50 (7.4)
This looks a good affair for a class 5 race with just 2 that I can discard confidently from having any chance of winning the race, Monks Stand should be staying on at the finish and comes out 4th best on my figures, in 3rd top spot is Lalania a 3 year old who is one of only 2 known front-runners in the race so could go close, top weight Danecase comes out 2nd best but that's on a 2017 time so would need to spring back to form to be competitive here but my top rated is KRAKA 9/1 another 3 year old that likes to front run and the jockey booking looks as though they are expecting a big run here.
Kraka 9/1 6th
YARMOUTH 4.50
I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in the 3-year-old Queen Of Desire and ARZAAK 9/1 but this one would be top rating is able to reproduce its 2017 time so could be dangerous, WIFF WAFF 9/1 the bottom weight is another 3 year old that enters calculations as my 2nd top rated with a time recorded over this course and distance, in top spot is EQUIMOU 13/2 who likes this type of track having done it best at Haydock and the trainer has a decent 17% win rate at this course, sorry to say another race I cannot narrow down to any less than 3 and I will back them all to show a profit whichever one does the business.
Arzaak 12/1 2nd
Equimou 13/2 7th
Wiff Waff 9/1 9th
BRIGHTON 4.10 (8.1)
I hope all 8 runs if my selection is each way price, Harry Beau and Andalusite are 2 of 3 that could be the pacesetters in the race and the latter may prefer further so would want to make the race a test of stamina, Arcanista 10/3 is in good form but this step up in class may find it out, it could still make the frame but there's not much value at the price, Wiley Post a hold up type and Crystal Deauville the other possible pacesetter, are 3rd joint top rated, the selection is the horse at the top of the handicap, BERNIES BOY 14/1, it will hope to get a good early position and then stay on strongly at the finish as it always stays on strongly as though it could get further so this race could be run to suit it and the apprentice jockey booking looks a positive move as she has a 16% win rate for the stable and the price will allow me to back it each way.
BRIGHTON 5.40
This 5 furlong dash has got 4 known pacesetters in the race and my top 3 are all front-runners, Hurricane Alert is weighted to be my 3rd top rated from a time recorded at Yarmouth last year, BROADHAVEN HONEY 5/1 is my 2nd top rated but that is on time from Chepstow this year so is in form and the apprentices 3lb claim draws it level top, this is the trainers first foray to this course in the last 5 years and I can see why he's using the apprentice to take some weight off at the top of the weights but the apprentice is 0-5 so I'm not quite sure what to expect, my original top rated is ASK THE GURU 9/1 who comes out top using a time from Bath in 2017 but its best time from this year was recorded over this course and distance would only put it in 3rd top spot so I don't really have much choice other than to back them both to make a profit whichever one wins.
BATH 3.45 (9.2)
This is a tricky 10 runner race where I have positives against 7 of them leaving me with my top 3, Union Rose is 3rd best using times from 2018 but would be top rated on 2017 times but it would need to bounce back to form against in form opponents, Kasbah is 2nd top rated using this years times but seems to be in the grip of the handicapper as it keeps running quite well so hasn't been dropped much on official figures, my top spot is occupied by NIBRAS AGAIN 12/1 who recorded a fast time when winning at Haydock 2 runs ago, its last run on softish going can be ignored and back on g/f ground has a chance to win again and its a big enough price for me to back each way.
Nibras Again 12/1 1st + EX £57.40
CHESTER 3.55 (8.2)
Not my favourite track to have a bet at and stakes will be kept fairly low, we all know a low draw is favoured here and front-runners do well so horses that don't normally front run come here and change their tactics to suit the course which makes analysis many times harder than usual. Private matter is a front-runner and drawn 1 but may not want firm in the going description, GINBAR 3/1 is my joint 2nd top rated, a front-running type and in stall 2 so could go very well here off bottom weight, Confessional is the other joint 2nd top and can find this distance a bit too far but maybe not on this turning course where they never really get into top gear until in the short home straight, KING ROBERT 10/1 is top rated drawn in stall 4 so could get a good position just behind the leaders but its another that doesn't like really fast ground, I will back the 2 highlighted horses to cover both angles in the race.
King Robert 10/1 4th
Ginbar 3/1 5th
LINGFIELD 4.15
A complicated little race for just 8 runners and again my stakes will be on the low side, apart from the topweight nothing else has been known to lead but I'm not sure it can pinch this race even with a crafty ride but it is a 3-year-old so it cannot be discarded easily, Kath's Lustre is 4th top and another 3 year old, Seprani is 3rd top rated so could make the frame, Rose Berry is 2nd best and a hold up type but does struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace so it could go well in the make-up of this race but top spot is DIAMOND LADY 8/1 who likes to track the leaders and could get a good early position from stall 2 and then stay on the stronger at the finish.
Diamond Lady 8/1 6th
MUSSELBURGH 6.55 (7.6)
This must be a poor race when I worked out what comes out top rated, inconsistency is a major problem at this level on grass, so again stakes are on the low side, 8 of the runners have had 10 or more runs without winning which is always a bit off-putting, there's not much early pace in the race, joint 3rd top are Griffin Street and Thornaby Princess and both like to track the leaders, Miss Dd prefers the same tactics but all 3 of them have not won for quite a while now which leaves the top-rated TWENTYSVNTHLANCERS 7/1 who may not want the going to be too fast and is in form as it won last time out.
Twentysvnthlancers 7/1 8th
SANDOWN 2.50 (7.7)
The only sprint of the day so im praying the going is at least good which looks unlikely but im always the optimist, theres a few in the race which I would look to lay if the going is good or faster, then a couple im not quite sure what to make of, Compas Scoobie looks to be in the grip of the handicapper and still runs some decent races so doesnt drop down in weight very quickly, Wotadoll comes out 3rd top and has finished 2nd on its last 3 runs all on differing surfaces, so maybe always the bridesmaid and never the bride, in 2nd spot ive got Ocelot who has a losing run of 9 races and its still not dropped to the same level yet but ought to run a good race, my toprated is SECRET AGENT 12/1 who comes out top on a speed figure derived from Salisbury last year when it was rated 65, it hasnt reached that level since then but despite winning 2 runs ago it can still race off 65 and in this race its the only known front runner and also drawn in stall 1 which is the favoured side but with 9 runners that might not matter too much but if the selection gets to the lead and sets its own pace it could feasibly lead from start to finish in this race and the trainer has a fine 19% win rate with all his horses at this course in the last 5 years but with his older horse he has a win record of 4-16 and hopefully he can add to that tally here.
PS: I also do post some lays most days on the Eric Winner Facebook Page, please take a look if you lay on the exchanges, I found a method which made so much sense and I amended it to find more qualifiers without losing the quality and it's making big big profits with my special stakes formula, if your interested go take a look, they are all free at the moment so fill your boots while you can.
Secret Agent 12/1 8th
I'm travelling back home to so won't have time to update the blog. However, you can find the latest post on Eric Winner Facebook Page.
KEMPTON 5.45
GLORY OF PARIS should be staying on strongly at the finish here and is top rated on c/d times but only because its the only one with a recorded time here, its time is good for the class of race and there's only one better time in the race, its best time from Chelmsford would put it in 2nd top spot so should be thereabouts at the finish.
ACRUX it hasn't a time from this c/d so not completely sure what to expect but looking through the clues it looks as though a longer distance may be needed for it to show its best BIG BRAVE BOB hasn't any form on this surface but with a bit of digging I'm thinking this surface might not suit its running style and slower going would be better.
TIGERWOLF another with no c/d form and at Wolverhampton its time over this distance was on the slow side of things and it's also another I'm not sure will take to this surface.
ASSASSINATE has just one run over this c/d which was quite poor and it appears a much better horse back at 5 furlongs so may not find this race run to suit its needs with 2 in the race that have been known to lead.
AGUEROO this one hasn't any course form to work with but its best time from Chelmsford puts it at the top of my list of figures and it can be held up or track the leaders so can be effective whichever tactics are deployed by others.
SPIN TOP has 1 slow run over this c/d and the reason may be because it doesn't really stay the sixth furlong and may struggle here if there's a decent early pace.
ONEFOOTINPARADISE again hasn't any form over this c/d and in this case it looks as though further would suit it better and could find itself outpaced in the early stages here. VIBES hasn't made the frame in five attempts on an all-weather surface and that includes 2 attempts over this c/d and looking as though a longer trip would help.
MAD ENDEAVOUR may prefer a slower surface and a shorter trip, then add on the trainers poor 1-33 win record at this track makes it feel as it may struggle here.
OCEAN TEMPTRESS not in the frame in 6 all-weather runs and further may suit it better, either that or a slower surface but it could be one that likes to lead, stall 10 isn't ideal but may be ok with only 1 other front-runner in the field.
SUMMARY: The 2 that have led before have negatives against their names, one due to the surface which leaves Vibes as the possible pacesetter, as it looks as though further would suit it better it may try to use its stamina from the front to win and has a good jockey booking to carry it out so is a danger and I can't discard it easily but I will stick with the proven and go with 2 selections, GLORY OF PARIS 5/1 is top on c/d times and 2nd top on all figures on this surface, AGUEROOO 7/2 is top using Chelmsford times and this is its 1st run at this course, if taking to the track it must have a good chance of winning but I'm not confident enough to narrow it down any further.
