KEMPTON 2.20
GINGER FOX is my other joint 3rd top-rated on 2019/20 c/d times but may prefer further, it should be staying on at the finish but maybe too late to win and looks poor value at 3/1.
MOON TROUBLE is the only known frontrunner in the race and is top-rated on just 2019/20 c/d times and 2nd top overall.
MARTINEO is top-rated overall on a time from Newcastle which is a straight course and different surface but if taking to this course could go very well.
WILEY POST hasn't any c/d form and its best from Lingfield would see it just outside the places so looks plenty short enough at 9/1.
SUZIS CONNOISSEUR 7/1 has a time from Lingfield that could see it make the frame and joint 3rd best on only 2019/20 c/d times.
FIGHTING TEMERAIRE hasn't any c/d form and may need further to show its best so I'm surprised it's a 13/2 shot.
EXCELLENT GEORGE on a losing run of 13, hasn't been in form lately producing slow times another that looks plenty short enough, this time at 8/1.
VENTURE is 2nd top on just 2019/20 c/d times but its best overall time is just outside my 3 so 9/2 looks poor value.
SPLIT DOWN SOUTH 15/2 won last time out but hasn't run here before but could make the frame if taking to this course.
ALFIE SOLOMONS on a losing run of 18 but hasn't run over this c/d before but would need to improve for the switch to win and not a 7/1 chance in my opinion.
OMRAN 50/1 has only slow times at this distance and maybe better over a shorter trip so not surprised its the rank outsider in the field.
SUMMARY: Not a great race for a class 4 affair and nothing I can see to lay confidently in this race, there's a mishmash of times and form lines which make it hard to analyse with quite a few that could feasibly make the frame here but I will be backing 2 horses in this race, MOON TROUBLE12/1 is top-rated on 2019/20 c/d times and being the only frontrunner in the race stall 11 might not prevent it from leading this race and if doing so could prove hard to catch but MARTINEO 7/1 does have a faster time from Newcastle so I have no idea if it will like this surface or course for that matter, I will probably tilt my stakes in favour of the proven horse and a smaller covering bet on the latter mentioned horse.
WOLVERHAMPTON 3.10
There's 3 known front-running types in this race but none of them are in my top 4 ratings so they will probably set the race up for a finishing type, Foxy Forever and Dynamo Walt is my joint 4th top-rated horses and both like to track the leaders, REFLEKTOR 9/1 is my 3rd top-rated and has good trainer/jockey stats and it could get a good tow into the race from stall 6 with stalls 5 and 7 having usually fast starters in them, my 2nd top-rated TATHMEEN 9/2 and CANFORD BAY 5/1 my top-rated are from the same stable and I am doubtful that they will both be triers (the old cynical me rearing its head) and I cannot work out which one of them will be the fancied one so I have to back them both, then if neither are good enough then my other selection could prosper, so I will be dutching all 3 of them, there's nothing I can see to lay confidently and its a competitive affair so my stakes won't be at full power.
Canford Bay 5/1 1st
Total = (+3pts)
WOLVERHAMPTON 3.40
If Carla Koala is allowed to set its own slower pace it could go well but Murqaab has also been known to lead before so I cannot see that happening and again the winner looks likely to come from off the pace, I will look to lay Alba Del Sole and Sharrabang who both might need further to show their best, Kyllukey is 4th top-rated using its best time from 2018, Blackcurrant is in 3rd top spot but is still a maiden after a dozen runs, Red Allure is still a maiden but this ones had 17 winless attempts, my top rated is well drawn in stall 2 so should be able to get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish but AUTUMN SPLENDOUR 5/1 is on a losing run of 18 which is a little off-putting but the jockey does have a reasonable 15% win rate for this stable so let's hope that's a good pointer.
Win bet: Autumn Splendour 9/1 Unp
Lay bet: Alba Del Sole (+1pt) Sharrabang (+1pt)
Total = +1pt
Total on day = 4pts
LINGFIELD 3.25
There's 3 horses that could set the pace but Awsaaf in stall 2 would like to lead and then set its own slowish pace but hopefully, that won't happen here and I would look to have a small lay on this one, another that I would also lay to a small stake is George Thomas, Sandridge Lad from stall 5 and Lalania in stall 9 are the other 2 frontrunners and both in my top 5 ratings and could easily make the frame, Alicia Darcy is 2nd top on just 2019/20 c/d times but will need some luck from stall 10, my money will be riding on HIGHLAND ACCLAIM 5/1 who likes to track the leaders and from stall 4 could get a good tow into the race.
Win bet: Highland Acclaim 8/1 6th
Lay: Awsaaf 9th (+1pt) George Thomas Unp (+1pt)
Total = +1pt
LINGFIELD 3.50
This is a poor race and two that are forecast to be the 1st two in the betting, Dreamboat Annie who could lead all the way here but is on a losing streak of 20 races and Chocco Star who ran on well over 5 furlongs in a fast run race looks the main danger, Our Man In Havana, Porto Ferro and Pharoh Jake have the odd piece of form that could see them make the frame but maybe these conditions are not quite right for them, it's probably a race best left alone.
CHELMSFORD 4.45
The topweight DEEDS NOT WORDS 3/1 won well last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here but in all honesty, this race being class 7 will not take much winning and being an apprentice jockeys race where they cannot use their whips adds more negatives to the race so my stake won't be at full strength, maybe the best way to make a profit in this race is with laying, Ask The Guru, Alaskan Bay, Grandee Daisy, and Miss Gradenko even with these lays my stakes will be again kept fairly low.
Win bet: Deeds Not Words 3/1 1st
Lay: Ask The Guru (+1pt) Alaskan Bay (+1pt) Grandee Daisy (+1pt) Miss Gradenko (+1pt)
Total = +7pts
CHELMSFORD 6.15
This class 3 sprint should be the best race of the day but the big problem is the lack of known pace setting types in the race, the bottom 5 in the handicap are all usually held up for a late run and 3 of my top 5 are in the top 4 in the handicap, there's a few in this race which I will look to lay, Red Alert, Concierge, Savalas, and Calder Prince, El Hombre and Katheefa could do enough to make the frame if reproducing their best times, my top rated on just 2019/20 c/d times is STORM OVER 4/1 who will be coming with a late run and will be carrying some of my money along with LANCELOT DU LAC 8/1 who is coming out of stall one and has been known to lead before and if deploying those tactics here it could pay dividends, its best time from 2018 puts it top-rated overall and this is a drop in class for it.
Win bets: Storm Over 4/1 1st, Lancelot Du Lac 8/1 4th
Lay bets: Red Alert (+1pt) Concierge (+1pt) Savalas (NR) Calder Prince (+1pt)
Total = + 6pts
Total On Day +18.45pts
As you probably noticed yesterday I changed my way of writing about each race listing those that have no chance and then any that I will be backing, the idea is to make a profit even if you don't find the winner, as long as none of the laying bets win, I am confident enough to say lay at any price even if it's only for a small stake it all adds up.
LINGFIELD 2.05
Only 5 runners and there's a couple Gracious John and Reckless Endeavour who would go well on their old form here and the latter is the only horse that's not on a double-figure losing run after winning last time out, Count Otto and Mrehoob are my top 2 ratings on 2019 times. My suggestion in this race is to lay Savalas at 5/2 who can struggle to stay 6 furlongs in a fast run race.
Lay: Savalas (+1pt) 5th
Total = +1pt
LINGFIELD 2.40
I have marked half of the 8 runners, Superseded, Cuban Spirit, Ewell Spring and Full Spectrum as potential lays in this race, Terri Rules is my 4th top-rated and likes to track the leaders as does my 3rd top-rated Fareeq who won last time out so we know is in good form, Compton Abbey is my top-rated using 2019 c/d times and could be the one to set the pace in this race, the jockeys 0-25 record on this stables older horses puts me off a little and it's maybe out for the run in preparation for a future race while MERCERS 13/2 who hasn't run well here recently comes out in top spot using its best 2018 time. I will be backing Mercers and maybe a covering bet on Compton Abbey and also lay the four horses mentioned earlier.
Lays: Cuban Spirit 1st (-5.5pts) Superseded 3rd (+1pt) Ewell Spring 6th (+1pt) Full Spectrum 7th (+1pt)
Win bet: Mercers 13/2 5th
Total - 3.5pts
NEWCASTLE 5.15
With this 6 runner race I will look to lay, Alsvinder, Venturous and Heath Charnock, Doc Sportello hasn't shown much recently and its best from way back would only make it 3rd top, BIG LES is my 2nd op rated here but the one I think will set the pace and could prove hard to catch if getting an easy lead but I do have COMMANDER HAN 3/1 rated 3lbs higher but this ones losing run of 19 is off-putting but I will have to back both of them to cover the angles.
Lays: Venturous 1st (-4pts) Heath Charnock 2nd (+1pt) Alsvinder 6th (+1pt)
Win bets: Commander Han 3/1 4th, Big Les 14/1 5th
Total - 3pts
NEWCASTLE 6,15
In this 11 runner race I have found 3 that I will lay, Captain Dion, Black Friday and Be Proud, in 4th top spot I've got WASNTEXPECTINGTHAT 3/1 who has done well on the AW in its 3 races and while in hot form it could make the frame again here and has a positive looking jockey booking, EPEIUS is 3rd top and the trainer does well at this track and this jockey booking also looks a positive move, ROCK BOY GREY 11/2 is top-rated on just 2019 c/d times and this one's jockey does well on the stables older horses, LUCKY LODGE 12/1 is 2nd top on 2019 c/d times but has a time from 2018 that would move it to top spot overall. I will be dutching the 4 horses mentioned and also lay the other 3 mentioned at the top of this race analysis.
Lays: Black Friday (NR), Be Proud 2nd (+1pt) Captian Dion 6th (+1pt)
Win bets: Wasntexpectingthat 1/1 1st, Lucky Lodge 14/1 5th, Epius 10/1 8th. (NR) Rock Boy Grey
Total: + 1.67pts
Total day: - 3.83pts
BACK
Lay
Related post: ERIC BAGS 22/1 WINNER
NEWCASTLE 5.30
Not a race to be betting too heavily in and the best way to make money from this race would be to lay Gamesome and Jonboy, I'm not sure what to expect from Buniann but it could be a danger Canford Bay looks the likely pacesetter and with an easy lead could go well, I will be having a small bet on COMMANDER HAN 3/1 who is my top rated but its losing run of 19 doesn't fill me with confidence nor the jockeys 1-16 strike rate for this stable and to be honest I expected it be a bigger price but I have to stick with my speed figures.
Commander Han 3/1 4th
NEWCASTLE 6.30
A full house of 14 runners, there's 6 horses that I will willingly lay in this race, Puchita, Lord Of The Glen, Someone Exciting, De Bruyne Horse, Darwina and Mitchum. Meshardal is my 4th top-rated and likes to track the leaders as does Avenue Of Stars my 3rd top-rated, my 2nd top-rated Gunmetal will be trying to stay on resolutely nearing the finish and should make the frame if reproducing its best, my money will be entrusted to STAR CRACKER 18/1 who is one of only two in the race that has been known to lead successfully before and I'm hoping a repeat here and it leads all the way from stall 13, luckily the draw isn't vital at this course and at the price I will be having an each-way wager.
Star Cracker 22/1 1st
(Exceptional tipping from Eric. When did you last see a tipster detail a big price winner like this?)
NEWCASTLE 7.00
In this 9 runner race the most likely pacesetter will be HELLO GIRL 10/1 its been off the course for a while now and may need this run for race fitness but is one of three horses in this race I will be dutching, JEFFREY HARRIS 5/1 is top-rated on just 2019 c/d times so has to be the 2nd one to be backed in this race, my third horse I will be backing is TABAAHY 12/1 and the jockey booking on this horse I am hoping is significant as he has a 24% win rate on this stables older horses, as I said I will be dutching all 3 but my stakes won't be at full strength, I will look to lay, Klopp 2/1 favourite, Fair Alibi 9/1, Piazon 10/1 and Swinging Eddie 10/1 to cover my betting stake.
Tabaahy 12/1 3rd
Jeffrey Harris 7/1 4th
Hello Girl 18/1 7th
WOLVERHAMPTON 2.30
In this 10 runner race the only known frontrunner is Spirit Of Wedza and being in stall 3 it could gain control on the rails and being my joint 4th top-rated a lot of these might not get involved in the race, Bahuta Acha is my 3rd top-rated and it was using a 2019 time and it does usually stay on at the finish so could make the frame, Isabella Ruby starts off as my 2nd top-rated but the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim moves it to top spot by 1lb but the jockeys 1-24 record for the stable doesn't inspire me with confidence but never say never and it could make the frame, my money in this race will be riding on REASONED 5/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and from stall 4 it could get a nice tow into the race and the jockey has a decent win ratio for this stable.
Reasoned 5/2 8th
SOUTHWELL 5.50
Typically move up to class 4 and there's only 5 runners, National Anthem won here on Monday over 5 furlongs and moves up to 6 here and this step up in class might catch it out but we do know its in good form and that is always a bonus, Private matter is capable of fast times but this one won last time out and I'm not sure this rise in class is within its capabilities, Airshow looks a much better horse over the minimum trip and Kamra might prefer a faster surface so my bet in this race will be ZYLAN 15/2 who is on a losing 13 but it showed a return to the winners enclosure is imminent when finishing 2nd last time out in a fast time the only niggling doubt is the jockeys 0-8 record for this stable but he has been placed in 6 of those 8 runs so maybe its just down to bad luck or coincidence.
Zylan 15/2 1st
SOUTHWELL 6.50
A sprint over the straight 5 furlongs here so the draw isn't as important as when going around a bend but if there is any advantage it seems to be for those drawn high, the downside here is the kickback when it's windy it puts some horses off, Loulin my 3rd top-rated could do best of those coming from off the pace as my top 2 are both front running sorts, Red Stripes in stall 5 here hasn't been lasting the distance lately but is capable of winning this race but my money will be riding on the back of *EESHA SAYS 6/1 who is coming out of stall 12 and being a front runner things could be in its favour and the 7lb claiming apprentice jockey has a win rate of 31% for the Tony Carroll stable.
*NR
Second top-rated (Red Stripes) wins well and 15/2* last night. * Rule 4 (7/2 SP)
Great tipping from Eric.
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Much appreciated.
LINGFIELD 1.25
This 7 runner race can be split into 2 with very little hope, 4 that could fight for 2nd spot and the likely winner, I have got very little on my ratings between Charming kid, Second Collection, Count Otto and Fizzy Feet my 5th to 2nd top ratings, Charming Kid looks an out and out frontrunner so it should ensure there's a good early pace but my money will be riding on the topweight LADY DANCELOT 10/3 who is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and that does include leading so from stall 4, in the make-up of this race, it could gain control of the rails either disputing the lead or actually leading and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch and make it 3 wins from its last 4 races.
Lady Dancealot 10/3 4th
CHELMSFORD 7.15
I have found 4 in this field of 13 that like to lead and all 4 are fairly prominent on my speed figures, Tilsworth Rose and Wild Flower are 2 of those that like to lead but I'm not sure if this pair is quite fast enough to get to the front in this race, Spennys Lass is on a losing streak of 21 races which doesn't inspire confidence plus its not been in good form either, Valley belle has a time from 2018 that would give it a chance but this one losing run is 24, Poppy May is a frontrunner that could do enough to make the frame here but I am hoping that from stall 3 KYLLUKEY 7/1 can get away and gain control of the rails and then it could prove hard to catch and I will be having a small punt on it and it will be an each-way punt if the price is big enough.
Related post: Did you know Eric Winner is in a tipping competition?
LINGFIELD 1.45
Only 5 runners and to be honest a very tricky race to be confident of making a final conclusion, Flowers On Venus, Swiss Pride, and Moon Trouble have all been known to lead before but the bottom-weight has a lot to prove and may need this run for fitness, Swiss Pride would need to improve time-wise to win this race so if MOON TROUBLE 13/8 does get to the front it could prove hard to catch if it can reproduce its best Chelmsford time here on the same surface.
Moon Trouble 13/8 2nd
LINGFIELD 3.55
Of the 10 entrants in this race I would look to lay 3 of them but the other 7 all have some chance of winning and with 3 known frontrunners it should be a true run race, Perfect Symphony has a good time from Chelmsford to make it 2nd top overall but stall 9 isn't ideal for its chances, Deeds Not Words is 3rd top overall and top-rated on times from 2019 onwards, stall 1 is ideal and a losing streak of 19 is off-putting, so I will have a small bet on DREAMBOAT ANNIE 8/1 who is one of the frontrunners and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch.
Dreamboat Annie 8/1 3rd
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.45
With just Fen Breeze is known as a frontrunner it could go ok from stall 6 but would need to improve timewise to hold on, Alicia Darcy on a losing run of 13 is my 3rd top-rated but only 1lb below Knockabout Queen in 2nd top spot, my money will be riding on KLOPP 11/2 who has won or been placed in half of its runs so I'm hoping it can add to its win total here.
Klopp 11/2 2nd
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15
In this 9 runner race, only Katherine Place my 2nd top-rated on 2019 c/d times is known as a frontrunner but drops to 5th spot overall so it may not be able to do enough to hold on for the win, there is also 2 horses that have only Irish form to work with on the AW form so they could be potential dangers so any stakes will be kept low, five of the runners are on losing runs of at least 10, 4 runners haven't shown much form lately, then one more that might not like the going, so my money will be riding on QAARAAT 9/2 who is top-rated on just 2019 c/d times and joint top overall and stall 2 should be fine.
Qaaraat 9/2 4th
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NEWCASTLE 2.25
GOWANBUSTER 8/1 its best 2019 time sees outside my top 4 ratings but its 2018 best takes it to 3rd top spot overall and could make the frame but I would probably lay the win part to a small stake.
INDIAN RAJ 13/2 hasn't any c/d from 2019 and only a slow time from Wolverhampton over this trip if going back to its best from 2017 it still doesn't win the race.
BIG LACHIE 10/1 didn't run over this c/d in 2019 so looking at its best from 2018 it would be just outside my top 4 and is on a losing run of 11 so one to lay if of value.
TATHMEEN 5/1 comes out 2nd top overall with a 2019 c/d time this one will be running on strongly at the finish and ought to make the frame at least.
SHOWU 16/1 is a maiden after 9 races and its overall form has been quite poor and I cannot find any reason to think it will break its duck in this race.
JAN VAN HOOF 14/1 has poor recent form but did record a time in early 2019 that makes it 3rd top on that years c/d times and another that will be trying to stay on at the finish.
SPIRIT POWER 33/1 I'm not sure this surface will suit this horse and timewise it would have to improve a few spots but it is the only known frontrunning type in the race so it could do better than expected with an easy lead but I doubt it will hang on for the win.
LANDING NIGHT 9/2 usually likes to track the leaders and is my top rated on 2019 c/d times and that figure makes it top-rated overall, the trainers 1-20 strike rate with the older horses at this track doesn't inspire confidence.
DAZACAM 33/1 is on a losing streak of 14 races and hasn't any recent form over this c/d and is been in poor form lately but its best time from 2017 would make it 4th top overall so another to lay.
GLOBAL HUMOR 10/1 has one run over this c/d which resulted in a slow time and in my opinion, it will be a better betting proposition when tackling a longer distance.
LOULIN 9/2 has only slow times over this c/d and isn't well handicapped against some of its rivals so I'm doubting it will follow up from its win last time out but it does show it in good form.
SUMMARY: Certainly not a race to be betting too heavy in, horses that could be considered as having a chance to make the frame are Gowanbuster, Big Lachie, Jan Van Hoof, and Dazacam but I personally will be having small bets on TATHMEEN 5/1 and LANDING NIGHT 9/2 who being my 2 top-rated horses have proven they can win under the conditions of today's race.
Tathmeen 5/1 2nd
Landing Night 6/1 7th
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