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Friday, 25 September 2020

8:15 Chelmsford Racing Tip & Lay Bets (26th September)

CHELMSFORD 8.15

BERNIE'S BOY 11/1 usually likes to track the leaders and then run on at the finish, it is my 2nd top rated using just this years times so could make the frame.

GHEPARDO 12/1 can either be held up for a late run or track the leaders and then stay on at the finish, it looks to be an outsider and will need to improve on its best time which came on this surface at Lingfield.

AWSAAF 20/1 will probably be a big outsider in this race and it might need a longer distance to show its true worth.

JORVIK PRINCE 5/1 is the only known front runner in the field and stall 2 should be ideal for it, it top rated on just 2020 times and has a 6lb better time from 2019.

WILD FLOWER 9/4 I think this distance is too short for this entrant and it would be one I would look to lay in the race especially at such a short price.

MIAELLA 4/1 hasn't any c/d form to its name but its best time from Lingfield would put it in the mix but that time did come from 2019 and may be better over further or on a slower surface.

SWELL SONG 3/1 has only 1 slow time at Kempton over this distance and trawling through its form this surface may not suit it and another I would look to lay at the price.

AWAKE IN ASIA 14/1 has only poor form recently but does have a good time from Lingfield but might be a better bet over a longer trip.

ILLEGITIMATE GAINS 50/1 hasn't shown much at all so far and I expect it will be the biggest outsider in the field.

SUMMARY: It looks like everywhere on turf will have soft ground so this is the only sprint I've worked on, I would look to lay (Wild Flower 9/4 + Swell Song 3/1) but my money will be riding on JORVIK PRINCE 5/1 hoping from stall 2 it can get the lead and control of the rails and from there lead all the way.

Thursday, 24 September 2020

5:55 Newcastle Racing Tips (25th September)

NEWCASTLE 5.55 

Not the best race I've seen lately but there's a winner somewhere amongst them, I'm not sure if I dare lay the 3yo Somekindasuperstar who I think might need a further to show its true worth, Isabella Ruby hasn't any c/d from to its name but a Wolverhampton time could see it make the frame, Lucky Beggar has poor form recently and I would have to go back to 2017 to find its best time but its still a maiden on the AW after 8 runs, there's other lightly raced sorts in the race which I'm not sure what to expect from them so my stakes will be kept on the low side, my 2nd top rated on 2020 times is Gorgeous General so it could make the frame, I think the horse that will set the pace is LORD OF THE GLEN 9/4 who is my top rated and I'm hoping it can lead all the way here. 

Lord Of The Glen 9/4 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

NEWCASTLE 8.30

At least in this race I know there's some front running types in the race but again there is a few lightly raced sorts who could put the spanner in the works so stakes will be kept on the low side, I'm not sure Another Angel will stay this trip if there's a fast early pace or if Airglow will like this surface, so the pace may be set by The Armed Man if allowed to set a slightly lower pace, my 3rd top rated overall is Buccaneers Vault it is 2nd top rated on just 2020 times, Epeius hasn't any recent c/d times but has a time from 2019 that takes it to 2nd top rated overall, my top rated on just 2020 times is LUCKY LODGE 11/2 and its best time from 2019 is also enough to make it top rated overall if only by 2lbs and will be the one carrying my money.

Lucky Lodge 11/2 1st (+5.5pts) Betfair SP 7.8

Total: +5.5pts

Total on the day +4.5pts 


Wednesday, 23 September 2020

7:00 Kempton Racing Tips & Lay Bets (24th September)

KEMPTON 7.00 

PERSUASION 10/1 I think this 3yo may need a longer trip to show its best.

TOTAL COMMITMENT 9/1 hasn't any course form for 2020 and its best time from 2019 would only make it my 4th top rated.

LANCELOT DU LAC 5/1 this ones last win was in 2018 but has a time from 2019 that would make it my 3rd top rated so it could make the frame.

ALJAADEL 5/1 has only a slow time over this c/d on its only try and I'm not sure this surface will suit it so one i will look to lay at such a relatively short price.

CONCIERGE 5/1 is usually held up for a late run and is at the top on my speed figures which was recorded this year before the lockdown and has run well the last twice on turf. 

TYPHOON TEN 5/1 hasn't any recent c/d form to look at and its best from 2018 wouldn't put it in my top 4. 

MUBAALEGH 8/1 hasn't run on the AW before and has only poor form so far this year and another that might not like this surface.

SAAHEQ 20/1 has a time from this year which wouldn't see it make the frame and its best form has come at a shorter distance and is a big outsider in the race.

PHUKET POWER14/1 hasn't any c/d form to its name but is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and could be a danger if allowed an easy lead but that's a big if but does have stall one. 

MOUNT MOGAN 11/2 is my 2nd top rated and its time was recorded this year but that was in a class 4 affair but it has earned the right to take on these higher level opponents.

SUMMARY: Its always hard to predict what will happen when you don't know what will lead but I will stick with my top rated and back CONCIERGE 5/1 who will be held up for a late run, I will also look to lay (Alaadel + Mubaalegh) at single figure prices.

Concierge 16/1 Unp (-1pt)

Lay bets: Alaadel +1pt, Mutaalegh +1pt

Total on the day: +1pt

Tuesday, 22 September 2020

8:00 Kempton - Horse Racing Tip & Lay Bet (23rd Septmeber)

KEMPTON 8.00 

MR BUTTONS 10/1 hasn't shown much form in its 3 runs this year but its best from 2019 could see it making the frame but i will lay the win part if a single figure price.

LORDSBRIDGE BOY 3/1 is one of 2 known front running types in the race and this one is my top rated and its best time was recorded this year.

HERONS NEST 14/1 has only shown poor form and i think it will be a big outsider. 

STARTER FOR TEN 5/1 a 3yo with no form at this distance on this surface, its one I couldn't back or lay but i somehow doubt it can win here so the betting maybe the best guide.

UNDER CURFEW 7/2 can find this distance stretches its stamina if there's a fast early pace and that could happen in this race so looks poor value to back and maybe worth risking the lay. 

GOOD EARTH 6/1 another with no distance form on this surface, its a maiden after 13 attempts and i doubt that will change here and could be worth laying. 

LEO DAVINCI 25/1 has only shown poor form so far this year and will be a big outsider.

ENGLISHMAN 25/1 comes out 3rd beston this years c/d times but its last 3 AW runs have been quite poor.

LORNA COLE 7/1 has only slow times at this distance and looks a better horse over a shorter distance so worth laying at the price.

KINGSLEY KLARION 14/1 is the other possible pacesetter and i had to go back to 2018 to find its best time over this c/d which could see it possibly make the frame but on the tissue prices its forecast to be a big outsider. 

DADDY'S DAUGHTER 33/1 looks a likely outsider and this surface might not suit it.

MORNING FURY 20/1 is making its handicap debut but has shown very little in its 3 runs and is the biggest price of all on the tissue prices.

SUMMARY: There was some sprints on turf but rain is forecast to start Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning so i am assuming it will turn the going soft so just this one AW sprint to concentrate on.only 5 of the runners have a recorded time which shows how poor the race is, I could look to lay (Lorna Cole) if Kingsley Klarion was 100% fit after a long time off it would be one i think could make the frame as its a front running type but if LORDSBRIDGE BOY 3/1 gets to the front in this race it ought to prove very hard to catch and will be carrying my money.

Lordsbridge Boy 9/2 4th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Lorna Cole -22pts Betfair SP (31.15) 

Total on the day: -23pts

Monday, 21 September 2020

2:40 Beverley Racing Tips & Lay Bets (22nd September)

BEVERLEY 2.40 

Only 6 runners for this class 2 conditions race worth over 12k to the winner, you would expect more entries, I would lay (Aljaady 7/4 who might need further on g/f ground) the pace will be set by Caspian Prince and/or Ornate and they are my 3rd and 3nd top rated horses but I'm hoping ORVAR 12/1 can track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish 

Orvar 12/1 2nd (-1pt) 

Lay bet: Aljaady 11/10 - (1.1pts) Betfair SP 2.28)

Total: - 2.1pts  

BEVERLEY 3.15 

A big field of 17 and a couple i will look to lay are (Gamesome 9/1 + Royal Brave 5/1) the former may want further and the latter hasn't shown much timewise since 2018, there's a few with pieces of form/times that could put them in the mix, Burtonwood, Atyaaf and Hello Girl but my money will be riding on DAPPER MAN 8/1 who I'm hoping can get to the front early doors and then prove hard to catch and can hopefully lead all the way. 

Dapper Man 8/1 Unp (-2pts) 

Lay bets: Gamesome +1pt, Royal Brave +1pt

Total: -4pts

LINGFIELD 4.15 

As usual I will start with those I will hope to lay (Thrilla In Manila + Zulu Zander + Champagne Supanova) there's a few that could run well in this race, Cappananty Con, Green Door, Brenner Pass, Equipped and Shining all have the odd piece of good/form times and could battle to make the frame but once again i will be backing the horse that has a good chance to lead all the way and that's the 3yo AUTUMN TRAIL 5/1 who in the make-up of this race could gain control of the rails from stall 6 and if leading should prove hard to catch.

Autumn Trail 5/1 8th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Thrilla In Manila +1pt, Zulu Zander +1pt, Champagne Supanova +1pt

Tota: +2pts 

Total on the day: -4.1pts

Sunday, 20 September 2020

2:35 Leicester Racing Tips & Lay Bets (21st September)

LEICESTER 2.35 

Only 8 runners which I can split into 3 groups, there's a couple that could run ok but I'm not sure they can win the race, then I've got 4 that i would look to lay if of any value, 9/1 or less (Strong Power + Able Kane + Sycamore + Honore Daumier) which leaves the two i will be backing, HUMAN NATURE 8/1 is top rated if I go back to its best time from 2018 and to be honest its not had many races since then under ideal conditions so could bounce back to form here if allowed an easy lead as its the only known front running type in the race but I will also back the horse top rated on 2020 times and that's HOLDENHURST 8/1 who likes to track the pacesetters and then stay on strongly at the finish. 

Human Nature 8/1 6th (-1pt)
Holdenhurst 33/1 7th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Able Kane -1.375pts (Betfair 2.44pts), Strong Power +1pt, Sycamore +1pt, Honore Daumier +1pt

Total: -0.375pts 

LEICESTER 3.05 

The early pace in this race could be set by Dark Shot and Equiano Springs wont let it have its own way at the head of the race, Tathmeen comes out 3rd best on my figures and usually race in midfield before trying to stay on at the finish, my top 2 are only separated by 1lb on my ratings so I will be backing them both, INDIAN SOUNDS 6/4 and NORTH WIND 6/1 they both like to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and being so closely rated it may come down to which one of them gets the clearest run in the race. 

Indian Sounds 6/4 5th (-1pt)
North Wind 6/1 6th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.25

I will start with the 2 lays as long as they are no bigger than 9/1 shots, (*Bellevarde who might want further + Capla Spirit who might prefer a different surface ) although Capla Spirit is the only known front runner in the race I think it will set the race up for a finishing type, Mutabaahy, Baltic State, Dynamo Walt and Dana Forever could run well and be battling to fill the places but my money will be on VICTORY ROSE 9/4 who recorded its best time this year and likes to track the leader and then stay on resolutely at the business end of the race.

Victory Rose 9/4 1st (+2.25pts) (Betfair SP 1.67pts) 

Lay bets: Capla Spirit +1pt

Total: +3.25pts

Total on the day: +0.875pts

Saturday, 19 September 2020

2:30 Chelmford Racing Tips & Lay Bets (20th September)

CHELMSFORD 2.30 

BROUGHTON EXCELS 6/1 could possibly make the frame if others falter on its best 2020 speed figure while its best from 2019 would make it 2nd top rated overall and being top weight against lesser rivals it could run well. 

DONTYOUWANTMEBABY 8/1 3yo has faded over 7 furlongs so this drop in trip to 6 furlongs could help its cause and the betting maybe the best guide to this ones chances.

DELEGATE THE LADY 13/2 has only produced relatively slow times over this c/d even when winning and I doubt this will be a slow run race which it might need to show its best.

HIDDEN ANGEL 9/1 this 3yo is making its handicap debut so could be a hidden danger more than angel it has only shown poor form in its 3 runs to its name, I certainly couldn't back it but also not confident enough to lay it either. 

TROUSER THE CASH 20/1 this 3yo has poor form to its name and I expect it will be one of the big outsiders in the race.

INDIAN AFFAIR 13/2 is 4th best on just 2020 times but is one of 3 in the race that has been known to lead before, you would need to go back to 2017 to find its best form so its not for me in this race. 

LITTLE FLOOZIE 11/1 this 3yo has shown better form over the minimum trip and seems to find the 6th furlong a bit too much for it.

VINCENZO COCCOTTI 6/1 is 2nd top rated on my unique speed figures using 2020 times only and is usually held up for a late run and could run into the frame and maybe worth an each way bet if of any value.

MR KODI 13/2 a 3yo who has only slow times at this distance and may need further before it starts to shine.

WHALEWEIGH STATION 33/1 this possible pacesetter is drawn in stall 12 which certainly isn't ideal in the make-up of this race plus it may need this run for fitness i had to go back to 2017 to find a worthwhile speed figure. 

RINTY MAGINTY 20/1 has only poor recent form and i expect it will be another of the big outsiders in the field and not any value to lay.

MY GIRL MAISIE 6/1 the 3rd of the 3 known front runners in the race and from stall 4 can either lead or at least contest the lead from the off and sits at the top of the pile on my ratings.

AMMAYYA 12/1 strangely this 3yo is making its handicap debut against older horses after just 2 previous outings so the betting might be the best guide to this ones chances. 

SUMMARY: If a single figure price (Delegate The Lady) would be the one I would lay in this race as I think it will be a shorter price than it merits, my money will be riding on MY GIRL MAISIE 6/1 who I am hoping from stall 4 can get to the front and if doing so it could prove hard to catch.

My Girl Maise 15/2 6th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Delegate The Lady +1pt

Total on the day: 0pts

Friday, 18 September 2020

1:40 Newbury Racing Tips & Lay Bets (19th September)

NEWBURY 1.40 

A great looking Group 3 race where 5 of the 9 runners have been known to lead before and I think the race will be run from the front, Jabbarockie and Wise Words have pieces of form that could see them make the frame, my 2nd top rated on 2020 times is TIS MARVELLOUS 11/4 and one of the possible front runners and has a time from 2019 that would make it top on my list, the one top rated on 2020 times is EQUILLATERAL 9/4 another possible pacesetter and both could prove hard to catch if getting to the front. 

Tis Marvellous 5/1 2nd (-1pt) 
Equillateral 9/4 3rd (-1pts)

Total: -2pt 

NEWMARKET 5.00 

Its a race where I'm not really sure what will set the early pace and I cannot find anything to lay with any confidence and to top it all off i can only narrow it down to 2 selections, Breanski I 3rd best on my figures and is either held up or races in midfield, FLAVIUS TITUS 8/1 who likes to track the leaders is actually my top rated using a fast run race here on the Rowley Mile course but since then it has shown very little, hence why its not my sole selection the other is MY STYLE 7/2 who will sit in midfield and then try to stay on strongly at the finish. 

My Style 7/2 2nd (-1pt)
Flavius Titus 14/1 4th  (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.15

A few lightly raced sorts in this race which always makes analysis much harder as does having no known front runners in the race, Bayar and Lucky Lodge are my joint 3rd top rated and only 1lb below BAHUTA ACHA 7/1 who has a time from 2019 that would move it to top time and will be the one I'm backing in this race, Jungle Inthebungle has the top time of just 2020 and might be worth an each way punt. 

Bahuta Acha 7/1 1st (Betfair SP 8.28) +7pts

Total: +7pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15

Of these 10 runners 6 have been known to lead, I will look to lay (Secret Potion + *Wild Flower + Mansfield) there are a couple more I could add to the lay list but I doubt they will be any value to take on, Dark Side Dream is 3rd top and has the plum stall 1 draw for a front runner, the one that could prosper if they go too fast from the off is Shepherds Purse but if YOU'RE COOL 14/1 gets to the front it could prove hard to catch and will be carrying my money and at the price it has be given as an each way wager. 

*NR 

You're Cool 17/2 4th (-2pts)

Lay bets: Mansfield (-4pts) (Betfair SP: 5.56), Secret Potion +1pt

Total: -5pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.45

I'm nearly ashamed to put this horse up again as my selection as it has let me down time and time again recently and yes I did say if it didn't win last time out I would never back it again but once again QAARAAT 4/1 looks to have the best form in a race and should win, I doubt it will be a very big price and might not be value to back but if running to its best of earlier this year before lock down or its best from 2019 it ought to win but maybe its one of those horses that never wins the number of races it should do.

Qaaraat 4/1 5th -1pt 

Total: -1pt

Total on the day:  -3pts

Wednesday, 16 September 2020

5:10 Yarmouth Racing Tips (17th September)

YARMOUTH 5.10 

I cannot find anything to lay confidently so I will concentrate on my top 3 ratings, in 3rd spot is Spanish Angel who usually races midfield before staying on at the finish, *SPIRITED GUEST 7/2 is top rated on 2020 times and likes to track the leaders before staying on resolutely nearing the business end of the race but MOKAATIL 7/1 has a time from 2019 that is just 4 spots higher and this one can be held up or track the leaders and I will have to back them both but maybe tilting in favour of the one that did its best rating this year, the only problem with this race is the lack of known pace setting types. 

Mokaatil 7/1 5th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt



CHELMSFORD 5.30

Again a race where I'm not sure where the ealy pace will come from which always puts me on the backfoot, 4th top spot overall goes to Maid Millie but its 2020 time makes it 2nd best on just this years times, Phoenix Star is joint 2nd top but this ones best time did come from 2019 and hasn't shown much lately, the other joint 2nd top rated is Tomshalfbrother who recorded his speed figure this year so has to be considered as the winner but PERFECT SYMPHONY 12/1 has a time from 2019 that would see it winning cosily and the jockey booking looks a positive move as the 7lb claiming apprentice has a 2-5 record for the stable so at the double figure price on offer it has to be given as an each way wager. 

Perfect Symphony 12/1 2nd (+2pts)

Total: +2pts

YARMOUTH 5.40

The top weight Prince Caspar could be a possible danger making its handicap debut but its time from the AW would need to be improved upon to win this race, the early pace could be set by Arzaak who is my 5th top rated and/or Tilsworth Rose who is my joint 2nd top rated, the other joint 2nd top rated is Wild Flower who likes to track the leaders and then run on at the finish but my money will be riding on SWELL SONG 6/1 who also likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish, its best time from 2020 puts it in top spot but has a 6lb faster time from 2019 but the jockeys 0-37 record for the stable is a little off-putting.

Swell Song 6/1 2nd -1pt

Total -1pt

Total on the day:  0pts

Tuesday, 15 September 2020

2:00 Yarmouth Racing Tips & Lay Bets (16th September)

YARMOUTH 2.00 

I will start of with a couple I will l ook to lay (Inevitable Outcome + Superiority) a couple of 3yo’s who would need to improve to win this race but the former may prefer some cut in the going and the latter as this trip might be too far, my 3rd top rated is Queen Of Burgundy who likes to track the leaders, my 2nd top rated, LETHAL ANGEL 12/1 can be held up or track the leaders it has good trainer/jockey stats which point to it running a big race here, my top rated is *CAMACHESS 9/2 who likes to track the leaders before staying on resolutely the only problem with this race is I don't know who will set the pace so stakes will be kept on the low side. 

Lethal Angel 12/1 2nd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Inevitable Outcome 9/1 1st (Betfair SP - 11.2), Superiority +1pt

Total: -8.2pts

YARMOUTH 3.45

Only 5 runners I still cannot narrow it down to a single selection, Leodis Dream is relatively quite slow on my speed figures but I expect it will be the outsider, the top 2, Blue de Vega and/or Caspian Prince will set the pace but I think they will set up the race for either TEXTING 13/2 or DACHAS 6/1 who both like to finish strongly at the business end of the race, they both have good trainer stats so I'm not sure which one will prevail so it has to be 2 bets in this race. 

Texting 13/2 2nd (-1pt)
Dachas 13/2 4th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

BEVERLEY 4.35

In this sprint I can find 4 horses to lay but I think all 4 will be big prices and represent very little value if any value at all, Musharrif could go well here if able to reproduce its best 2018 time and its best since then has been at least 10lbs below standard, there's a few that could go well Line Of Reason, Mythmaker, Athollblair Boy and Nibras Again, I will go with backing 2 horses in this race to cover the angles firstly DAPPER MAN 12/1 who could try to lead all the way here and is joint 2nd top on just 2020 times but top rated if using its Hamilton time from 2019, secondly my top rated on just 2020 times is INDIAN SOUNDS 11/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish.

Indian Sounds 11/2 1st (+5.5pts) Betfair SP 3.81)
Dapper Man 12/1 5th (-1pt)

Total: +4.5pts

Total on the day: -5.7pts