NEWCASTLE 6.25
If only I knew what was going to set the pace in this race, I've got a possible hidden danger in the race and only 5 with times fast enough to register on my data, Skyva is my 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leader, whoever that is, I've got joint top rated horses with SCENERY 10/1 who is in stall 12 on this straight course and in the make-up of this race I have the feeling those drawn in the higher half might have the edge, my other joint top rated is the topweight DANDY HIGHWAYMAN 6/1 who won 2 runs ago and if the 7lb claiming apprentice is worth their allowance it moves it into clear top spot and therefore has to be my selection but I might have a smaller saving bet on Scenery just in case the apprentice jockey doesn't have the best of rides.
NEWCASTLE 6.55
There are only 3 known front-runners in this race which is poor for a 5 furlong dash but hopefully it will a fast enough pace for my selection to aim at, Gnaad in stall 2 may do best of the front-runners being my 4th top rated but it hasn't run over this c/d before, Gamesome who likes to track the leaders is my 3rd top rated but is on a very long losing run, Landing Night very often runs a decent race and could make the frame here being my 2nd top rated, my top rated and selection is ANOTHER ANGEL 5/1 who ought to be staying on resolutely at the finish especially if the leaders are tiring.
NEWCASTLE 7.25
There's 4 in this race which has led before and this race could be won from the front, the bottom weight Spoken Words has one good time to its name but that is looking a bit of a fluke as its now had 41 runs without a win, Cuppacoco is my 4th top rated and a possible pacesetter in this race, Windforpower is a versatile type who can lead at times and its my joint 2nd top rated in this race alongside Social Butterfly who could be the one to prosper if the leaders go off too fast but my top rated is ASTRAEA 4/1 who is versatile with its racing tactics and can lead but it doesn't have to lead to win but it will race prominently.
KEMPTON 6.00
Madrinho is 3rd top rated and has a good jockey booking so could make the frame, Treacherous hasnt shown much in 2018 and may need further, Princely hasnt any course form and only a slow time from Chelmsford so may struggle here, Anonymous John is my 2nd top rated using a 2017 time and has only ran once over this c/d since that year and is versatile with its racing tactics, Little Palaver is my top rated and could get to the front here from stall 3 and if leading should prove hard to catch, Full Intention hasnt any distance form on the allweather tracks but a fast time on good to firm going on turf points to it probably taking to this surface and therefore a danger, Hello Girl needs to improve timewise to be competitive in this race, Mont Kiara hasnt done enough timewise in the last 2 years to win this race, Rock Of Estonia runs as though a shorter distance would suit it better than todays distance, Miracle Works hasnt a time to make my top 4 ratings and is a maiden after 8 runs and cant see why that should change here, Soar Above is usually staying on at the finish at this distance but maybe too late to get competitive in this race, Global Melody hasnt any form on this surface and distance but would be 3rd top rated if it can reproduce its Southwell time on this different surface.
SUMMARY: My selection LITTLE PALAVER 7/1 is a front running sort and in the make-up of this race it could lead and gain control of the rails and attempt to lead all the way, the 7lb claiming apprentice has a decent 19% win rate for this stable and the claim ought to swing things into its favour.
Little Palaver 11/1 1st (DHT)
KEMPTON 6.30
Only 6 runners here and its maybe a race-best left alone as there's negatives and positives about all of them, Bernies Boy comes out joint top rated and the apprentices 7lb claim should move it top rated on its own but the apprentice is 0-38 for this stable which puts me off but never say never, so Doc Sportello is the other joint top rated but only has 7% and 5% win rates on the trainer/jockey stats but if pushed might be my bet at 7/1, Al Asef’s trainer has a 22% win rate here with their older horses, Peggys Angel may prefer a shorter trip and the trainer has a poor 1-51 record at this course, King Robert maybe better on a slower surface and isnt of any value as the 5/4 favourite, Gold Hunter could be dangerous if able to repeat its best time on grass.
KEMPTON 5.15
This must be one of the worst races or ages and its not a class 7 affair, Monarch maid is versatile with its racing tactics which includes leading but the likely pacemaker here is Tick The Boxes who did finish 2nd three runs ago at Southwell but most of its form recently has been poor, New Rich won last time out but not here and I had to go back to 2014 for its best time over this c/d but then again we know its fully fit so it could go well, COMPTON PRINCE 11/1 has got the plum draw against the rails who has run fairly consistently on its last 4 runs and could be the answer here but my stakes certainly won't be at full strength.
Compton Prince 11/1 4th
KEMPTON 6.45
EXCELLENT GEORGE would come out 4th best using its time from Chelmsford but is quite a way below that level at this course.
UPAVON hasn't any recent course form but its best time from Chelmsford would put it into 3rd top spot and the jockey has a good 17% win rate for this stable.
FIVETWOEIGHT comes out top rated using c/d times and that's the 2nd fastest time on all 3 of the tracks with this surface but the jockeys 1-23 record put me off a little.
COMPAS SCOOBIE has only run here once but it does have the fastest time from Chelmsford and top figure all round and the stable does well here with its older horses.
BUSBY is 3rd best on c/d times and 2nd best on Chelmsford times so ought to run a decent race here but may be in the handicapper’s grasp.
BERNIES BOY looks the most likely of these to set the pace and is 2nd best on c/d times, then take off the apprentices 7lb claim its joint top but the apprentices 0-38 for the stable is off-putting and it may also be out of its depth class-wise.
SUMMARY: Its a strange race in many ways for such a small field, the bottom pair maybe outclassed here and the top 2 in the grip of the official handicapper leaving Fivetwoeight who is top rated on c/d times but I do have COMPAS SCOOBIE 11/4 rated 4lb’s higher using a Chelmsford time and with what looks a significant jockey booking has to be my selection.
Compas Scoobie 11/4 6th
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.15
VERY HONEST front running type and drawn well in stall 4, its dropped in class and has a fast time from Kempton but hasn't run on this surface before but fancied at 7/2.
TIME TO REASON hasn't any form on this surface or distance and I'm thinking that this surface might not suit it so one I would lay at 9/2.
OUR MAN IN HAVANA has a time just outside my top five ratings so could possibly make the frame being a front runner coming out of stall 6.
MOTHER OF DRAGONS has only got slow times at this distance and is 0-15 on the all-weather surfaces plus this distance may be too far for it.
ORIENTAL RELATION hasn't shown much lately despite sometimes showing a fast early pace but does have A time from 2017 that would put it well clear of this field but not for me here.
RED INVADER is versatile when it comes to racing tactics but timewise it needs to improve a good few spots.
FILBERT STREET is making its handicap debut here but it looks as though further will suit it better but maybe connections have been hiding its potential.
ALWAYS AMAZING has only shown slow times over this c/d recently and would need to spring to form unexpectedly to win here.
CARPET TIME has got a time just 2lb’s below my top rated so could to go well but stall 11 might not help its cause, the trainer has a 15% win rate here so could possibly go well but not much value at 11/2.
SPIRIT POWER could find this trip too far if the early pace is as fast as I think it might be so not forme in this race.
INDIAN AFFAIR a possible front runner with a good time from early 2018 but stall 12 isn't ideal and it would need to bounce back to form to be competitive in this race.
THORNTOUN LADY has a time from 2017 which would put it in 2nd spot on my figures but on recent times it's not for me here.
SANTAFIORA is well weighted and won last time out but the 2nd that day is weighted to reverse the form but the winner perhaps had more to give if pushed and 4/1 2nd favourite.
SUMMARY: This should be a fast run affair for its class with 4 natural front running sorts and I think I can narrow my list down to 3 or 4 possible winners, 2 front runners and 2 strong finishing types, Indian Affair would need to bounceback to form to win this but has won unexpectedly before so cant be written off completely, VERY HONEST 7/2 is best drawn of the front runners and its dropped in class in this race and if it can repeat its Kempton time on this different surface it could lead all the way, theres very little between Carpet Time and SANTAFIORA 4/1 who could both be trying to stay on at the finish, the former may need to be the luckier being drawn in stall 11 with fast starters berthed either side of it which mau mean the latter gets a clear run from stall 1 and getting the control of the rails just behind the leaders, betting wise I will be backing both selections to cover both angles but not happy being on the first two in the betting I can only hope they drift in the market, but very unlikely.
Santafiora 6/1 1st
Very Honest 7/2 3rd
LINGFIELD 1.25
This is a strange looking race, half the field are known to set the pace so it could be fast and furious and in such a small field the draw won't be of much importance. Reflektor has good trainer/jockey stats, 24%+22% but my 6th best speed figure-wise, Desert Doctor’s trainer has a good 23% win record and decent jockeys stats but only 5th top rated, Zac Brown comes out 4th best on my speed figures, Gorgeous Noora comes out 3rd best using a 2017 time and has a good 24%+22% trainer/jockey stats, Alsvinder is 2nd top rated but may find the trip a bit taxing if there's a fast early pace and that looks quite likely here, top spot on my own speed figures goes to MERHOOB 10/3 who’s jockey has a 3-12 strike rate for the stable and could possibly lead all the way.
Merhoob 9/4 2nd
NEWCASTLE 6.30
A big problem with this race is the lack of early paced types, I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in Athollblair Boy and Kommander Kirkup who both like to track the leader/s AVENUE OF STARS 4/1 is my 2nd top rated and the trainer has a 16% win rate here and the jockey is 2-5 for the stable so it looks as though they are expecting a big run in this race but I do have LUCKY LODGE 4/1 rated higher and all 4 mentioned like to track the leaders so I'm hoping something sets a decent early pace so its a true run affair.
Avenue Of Stars 4/1 3rd
Lucky Lodge 4/1 Unp
LINGFIELD 2.40
Just 6 runners and my 2nd top rated Bernies Boy is the only known front runner and if allowed but the jockeys record of 0-33 puts me off a little but I have negatives against the other 4 runners so leaving me with DEEDS NOT WORDS 9/2 as my selection but it did on Wednesday and if turning out again here it must have every chance of following up with another win here.
Deeds Not Words 9/2 1st + F/C £21.60
LINGFIELD 3.40
I backed Mercers when it won and it finished 3rd on its run since then and has a good apprentice riding today in this apprentice jockeys race so could make the frame or better, Entertaining Ben has a time that would make it competitive but the trainer is 0-10 in this type of race which puts me off and it would need to improve to win the race but it could go well, Jorvik Prince’s trainer is using an apprentice with 1-3 record for him and is 2nd best on its best time, the topweight IMPART 5/2 is my top rated and it won last time out and they are using a 5lb claiming apprentice in this race and if the jockey is worth the claim it could swing things in its favour but its not a race I will be betting heavily in.
Impart 3/1 4th
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.45
A race where hopefully the top 2 in my figures will show they are a bit better than the rest in the field, Sir Ottoman is my 3rd top rated but hasn't won for 16 races now but at its best in 2017 it could just make the frame, LETMESTOPYOUTHERE 8/1 is my 2nd top rated, the trainer has a 22% win rate at this course while the 5lb claiming apprentice who is booked to ride has a 31% win rate for the stable so it looks as though they are expecting a big run here and its only 1lb off the top spot held by KUPA RIVER who is one of only two known front running types in the race so if getting to the front it should be hard to catch, normally the latter would be my sole bet in this race but with just 1lb between them and the good trainer/jockey stats of the former I will back them both but maybe still in favour of my top-rated horse.
SOUTHWELL 1.20
With the top weight being ridden by a 3lb claiming apprentice it means I have 3 with the same speed figure but the apprentice riding Ornate 9/2 has a poor 1-26 record for the stable which certainly isn't a positive but being a front runner this one could lead all the way, CLASSIC PURSUIT 11/2 usually stays on at this trip and could be one to prosper if the leaders go off too fast and my 3rd joint top rated is SAMOVAR 11/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish, I will go with backing both selections to cover the angles.
Classic Pursuit 8/1 5th
Samovar UR
SOUTHWELL 2.25
Crosse Fire has run a fast time but struggles in this slightly higher class races but along with Guarda Svizzera could set the pace, BLACK SALT 7/2 ought to be staying on strongly at the finish and it has good trainer/jockey stats which looks a positive, JACK THE TRUTH 15/2 is another who will be staying on at the finish and has very good trainer stats and also good jockey stats so another with positives, BELLEVERDE 8/1 is the 3rd one that should be gaining near the finish and this one has an apprentice jockey with a good record for the stable taking the ride,all 3 have good claims so I'm hoping to dutch them all to make a profit in this race.
SOUTHWELL 3.00
A poor race with 2 known front-runners who have got the prime draws in stalls 1 and 2 and I think Jazz Legend could do the best of this pair and maybe enough to make the frame but would need to improve to catch my top 2 ratings, Diamond Pursuit who likes to track the leaders is my 2nd top rated and drawn in stall 3 while my top rated DREAM ALLY 16/1 is a hold up type and drawn in stall 4, I will back the selection each way and then I might have a saving bet on the other 2 mentioned above.
Dream Ally 9/1 8th
SOUTHWELL 3.35
This apprentices race only has 7 runners but there's not a natural front running type in the field and only 3 of them have a recorded time of any note, Piazon is 3rd best and usually tracks the leaders, my top 2 can both either be held up or track the pacesetters, Furni Factors is my 2nd top rated and COISTE BODHAR 8/1 comes out in top position but I will only be having a small wager.
Coiste Bodhar 14/1 5th
CHELMSFORD 7.55
There might be 14 runners but only Poppy May is known as a front running type but timewise would need to improve a fair bit to win and is drawn widest of them all in stall 14 but if allowed a soft lead it could run well, Plucky Dip my 4th top rated usually stays on at the finish, Secret Asset is 3rd best here and well drawn in stall 3, Charlie Alpha usually runs on at the finish and comes out 2nd top rated but I've got MAGICINTHEMAKING 7/2 a few spots clear of the field and is another that stays on strongly at the finish over this distance and from stall 11 it could follow the leader across to the rails in the early stages and then get ready to attack.
LINGFIELD 3.05
To be completely honest this race is very poor, there's 4 that have been known to lead and all of them Majorette, Very Honest, Just An Idea and Indian Affair could feasibly win this race from the front but which one I haven't got a clue but I've then got to add Deeds Not Words and Agueroo into the mix giving me 6 possible winners of this race, the betting will decide how I bet in this race if I bet at all but if I can dutch them to guarantee a profit of over even money it might be the way to go.
KEMPTON 6.15
Only 6 runners and not much to write about with no known pacesetters and then joint top rated horses in CENOTAPH 11/10 who can be held up or track the pacesetters and *UDONTDODOU 20/1 who is a hold up type and I will be backing both of them but my stakes won't be at full power with the lack of known early pace.
Cenotaph 11/10 2nd
* Udontdodou NR
KEMPTON 7.45
If this wasn't an amateur riders race I would be putting my betting boots on, the early pace might be set by National Glory but its only had 1 run in England since racing before that in Ireland so it could possibly be a danger but it needs to show more before I could back it, Regulator and All Or Nothing both look as though further would suit them better, then there's Drakefell and Choice Encounter who look as though this trip is too far but are still my joint 3rd top rated horses in this race, Peggys Angel and Concur haven't shown much at all lately which leaves me with Human Nature who is my 2nd top rated who could easily make the frame but I do have MADRINHO 7/1 rated a few spots higher and if this one gets a clear run in ought to stay on the stronger in this race.
Madrinho 7/1 4th
NEWCASTLE 5.15
There are only 10 runners but its hard to narrow it down to less than 3 selections, DYNAMO WALT 18/1 can be held up or track the leaders and is weighted to be just top rated but its not one to trust completely but it is more than capable if in the right mood and a reasonable each-way price, ATLETICO 10/1 despite having topweight still comes in just 1 spot off the top spot and another that looks a reasonable each-way prospect, it hadn't been in the best of form but did hint at an upward curve when finishing 4th last time out, my final selection is OUTRAGE 4/1 it might only be my 3rd top rated but in the make-up of this race it could be able to lead and set its own pace and if doing so could possibly do enough to hold on for the win and it has been in good form recently but I will back all 3 to varying levels to show a profit whichever one wins.
Outrage 4/1 1st
Dynamo Walt 33/1 9/1
Atletico 10/1 Unp
NEWCASTLE 6.15
There's 12 runners and I've got half of them as potential winners and only 3 that I can discard easily but I do think in this instance I can narrow it down, there's known early pace in stalls 1, 11 and 12 and 2 of my top 6 are in those stalls, Star Cracker and Archimedes could take each other on in the early paces and the former should get the better of that battle and could make the frame, others that could make the frame is, Cherry Oak, Windforpower and Encoded. The stall 1 draw could allow NOVABRIDGE 11/2, who I tipped up last time out at 20/1 when it led virtually all the way but got nodded close home, to set its own pace on that side of the course and must have a good chance to go one better this time but POPPY IN THE WIND 5/1 did a faster time this year than Novabridge who was only 5 spots below its best and there's only 3 spots between them here (if that all made sense) what that all means is that its very close between the 2 of them and I will be backing them both.
Novabridge 8/1 4th
Poppy In The Wind 5/1 8th
NEWCASTLE 7.15
I don't know what's happening but its another race where I cannot narrow it down to one selection Lord Of The Glen and Laubali should ensure there's a fast early pace which will suit one of my selections as ANOTHER ANGEL 4/1 usually stays on at the end of races looking as though further would suit it and it is my joint top rated and from stall 8 it ought to be able to keep an eye on my other selection *CASTERBRIDGE 5/1 who is a front-running sort and housed in stall 10, so I will go with backing them both to cover both angles but maybe slightly favouring the front-running selection.
Another Angel 4/1 6th
NR: *Casterbridge
WOLVERHAMPTON 5:15
I was going to say something about each horse but got down to the 6th horse in the weights and realised that 6 of the bottom 7 all have big negatives against them so left me with 5 possibles.
ALASKAN BAY has only just turned 4 and could be an improving animal and has run well in its last 6 races with 2 wins, on paper it looks it might be in the grip of the handicapper now but with the opposition not guaranteed to run to their best it must have a decent chance of winning again.
CAPTAIN RYAN 5/1 won last time out over course and distance in an average time for the class but isn't guaranteed to follow up and had gone 19 races without winning before popping up last time out, but does have some degree of a chance.
RED STRIPES is a front-runner who seems to run its race every time but it can't get its head in front and always seems to get caught near to the line its had 26 runs since its last victory and is my top rated once again, which shows how poor this race really is.
ZIPEDEEDODAH 13/2 not drawn well in stall 8 in this race with 3 other fast starters on the inside of it, its last win was 24 runs ago and I doubt that will change here but never say never with such a poor race that won't take much winning.
STORM TROOPER 4/1 another with a long losing run, 26 in this one's case and its 0-18 on the all-weather tracks which is very off-putting.
Any of the 5 above could win this race as none of them is very consistent and most have had big gaps between wins, the topweight ALASKAN BAY 9/4 and RED STRIPES 4/1 will be my main bets in the race but I might have smaller covering bets on the other 3 but there's not much value in dutching the race but I will be very surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the 5 horses mentioned.
Alaskan Bay 3/1 2nd
Red Stripes 7/2 4th
GOOD LUCK whatever you bet.
