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Monday, 10 August 2020

1:55 Haydock Racing Tips & Lay Bets (11th August)

1:55 Haydock Racing Tips & Lay Bets (11th August)
HAYDOCK 1.55 

I can see 3 or possibly 4, Queen Of Kalahari, Galloway Hills, Redrosezorro and The Armed Man in this race that might try to set the pace and they may push each other a tad too much in the early exchanges and play into the hands of a hold-up type, Paddy Power has a time from Hamilton in 2019 that would see it make the frame but hasn't shown much so far this year, with the make-up of this race I think the connections have found a good opportunity for ICONIC KNIGHT 6/1 to follow up its win last time out and its best time from Windsor last year is good enough to win this race and the trainer has a good strike rate at this course. 

HAYDOCK 2.25

If the going is good to firm I will look to lay (Camachess + Dark Silver + Somewhere Secret) and I will have to ducth 3 runners in this race to cover the angles, firstly BASHIBA 33/1 is top-rated on 2019/20 times and has an even faster time from 2018 that would see it win cosily but it hasn't been in good form lately but it is capable of bouncing back to form without prior warning and the jockey does ok for this stable, secondly, PAVER'S PRIDE 4/1 who could set the pace in this race and is 2nd top-rated on 2020 times and only 2lbs off top spot so could go well from the front, thirdly BOUDICA BAY 14/1 is top-rated on just 2020 times so has to be on my list of the potential winner it's not a race to be wading in too heavily but dutching the 3 runners could prove profitable. 

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.10

What a race and not in a good way, yes something does have to win the race I have some ideas but also I have negatives against most of those with a recorded speed figure plus it wouldn't take much improvement from many of the horses to win this race. I will lay both (Qaaraat + Hard Solution) who both seem better over shorter distances, Watheer has a jockey record of 0-19, Maid Millie has a trainer record of 0-26 and a jockey record of 0-11, Sharrabang, who is one of 3 known frontrunners, has a trainer record of 1-78 and the jockey is0-11, Kinglami the jockey's record is 0-46, in fact, the jockey has never ridden a winner on the AW, I've got FANTASY JUSTIFIER 25/1 as my 2nd top-rated using a 2019 time but if it can reproduce its best of 2018 it could win cosily and as it it is also the only one without negative trainer/jockey stats it has to be the one I will back.

Sunday, 9 August 2020

3:00 Leicester Racing Tips & Lay Bets (10th August)

3:00 Leicester Racing Tips & Lay Bets (10th August) LEICESTER 3.00

A race where there's four 3yo plus others that are lightly raced but according to the forecast tissue prices most are not fancied in the betting, I will look to lay 3 horses (Dreamboat Annie + Aghast + Wiff Waff) I've got Rinty Maginty as my 2nd top-rated on just 2020 times and 3rd top overall so it could go well, Dahik comes out 2nd top overall using its best time from 2019 at Redcar but this one could set the early pace and maybe enough to at least make the frame and I might even have a small covering bet on this one just in case it can lead all the way but it hasn't really shown much so far this year so my main bet will be HARRY'S RIDGE 9/2 who has finished 2nd on its last 2 runs and 3rd the race before that so is in good form and has been found a good opportunity here to get back to winning ways. 

Harry's Ridge 9/2 3rd (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Wiff Waff (-6.5pts) Betfair SP (10.54pts), Dreamboat Annie +1pt, Aghast +1pt

Total: -5.5pts

LEICESTER 3.30

For a class 5 affair this looks a decent race and to be honest, I cannot find anything to confidently lay which doesn't happen very often, Mr Wagyu looks the most likely pacesetter but is only 5th top-rated but could do better than that if allowed an easy lead, the 3yo Alben Spirit is 4th best with Commander Han in 2nd spot and they both like to track the leaders, another 3yo has caught my eye and ONE NIGHT STAND 11/2 actually comes out top rated using a time recorded over this c/d but it's not won a race in 8 attempts and the trainer is 0-6 here and the jockey 0-4 for this stable and this is enough to worry me and therefore I will also back QUEEN OF BURGUNDY 11/1 who is my 2nd top-rated and is dropped in class to run here. 

Queen Of Burgundy 11/1 4th (-1pt)
One Night Stand 11/2 6th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

CHESTER 6.30

A nice Listed race but I will admit this isn't a favourite course of mine and the draw can be the kiss of death if drawn high but the jockeys know this and if the rails are cut back in the home straight then they all have a chance if racing prominently, I would lay (Judicial) who might find the trip too far if there's a fast early pace which I do expect and I think it will be won from the front, some drawn nearer the rail might change their usual tactics and try to lead but hopefully they won't be fast enough to stop either, MAJOR JUMBO 7/2 from stall 6 and this one has a time from 2018 that would see it winning but hasn't been at that level in recent times but this will be its first run of the year over this distance on hopefully good to firm ground, or EMARAATY ANA 4/1 from stall 9 from leading and if getting to the front they could be hard to catch.

Major Jumbo 7/2 2nd (-1pt)
Emaraaty Ana 4/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

Total on the day: -9.5pts 

Saturday, 8 August 2020

1:55 Thirsk Racing Tips & Lay Bets (9th August)

1:55 Thirsk Racing Tips & Lay Bets (9th August)
THIRSK 1.55 

As usual, I hope all 8 runners take part as I do like a big priced selection, I will look to lay half the field, (Spartan Fighter + Mighty Spirit + Duke Of Firenze + Autumn Flight) I've got Watchable as my 3rd top-rated and ran well finishing 2nd last time out when beaten in a photo, my 2nd top-rated is Venturous doesn't seem to like the really fast ground but is still capable of producing a fast time but I will be backing INDIAN SOUNDS 3/1 who is my top rated and the trainer has a decent 16% win ratio at this course. 

Indian Sounds 4/1 2nd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Spartan Fighter +1pt, Mighty Spirit +1pt, Duke Of Firenze +1pt, Autumn Flight +1pt

Total: +3pts

WINDSOR 1.30

There are quite a few runners that are relatively lightly raced and I can see 4 that I would like to lay (Garth Rockett + Outer Space + Impart + Tigerinmytank) but not too big stakes, my 3rd top-rated is Cool Strutter but the trainers 1-32 record at this track puts me off but it could still make the frame, I will be backing 2 in this race to cover the angles, UNDER CURFEW 4/1 is my 2nd top-rated but it has a hopefully significant jockey booking and will be trying to stay on at the finish while the bottom weight *PORTO FERRO 6/1 is a frontrunning type but here is taking on slightly better horses so I will back them both. 

* NR

Under Curfew 4/1 2nd (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Garth Rockett +1pt, Outer Space +1pt, Impart +1pt, Tigerinmytank +1pt

Total: +3pts


SALISBURY 2.15

Only 7 to analyse in this race and I could lay 3 of them (Well Done Fox + Tone The Barone + Encore D’or) I am not really sure what to expect from the 3yo Mr. Kiki as it doesn't have any distance form, the bottom weight Poets Dance is a 3yo which I thought might still be able to improve and its already my 2nd top-rated but the trainers 0-11 record at this course makes me think they will be aiming for another target in the future so I will be backing KONCHEK who is my top rated and one of 2 in this race that has led before and if getting to the front should be hard to catch. 

Konchek 4/1 1st (+4pts) Betfair SP (5.4)

Lay bets: Well Done Fox +1pt, Tone The Barone +1pt, Encore D'Or +1pt 

Total: +7pts


THIRSK 2.30

I will start with the 4 horses I will look to lay, (Another Batt + Aberama Gold + Presidential + East Street Revue) Abate and Swissterious are my joint 3rd top-rated on just 2020 times but 4th best overall so could go well, Royal Prospect comes out 3rd best overall using a 2019 speed figure, I've got BOSSIPOP 8/1 as my top rated on just 2020 times and I think it might be the one to set the pace in this race but that is enough to beat all the others barring MUSCIKA 10/1 who recorded the 2nd best 2020 time but has a time from 2019 that would see it winning but I will back them both to cover the angles.

Bossipop 10/1 2nd (-1pt)
Muscika 10/1 Unp (-1pt)

Lay bets: Another Batt (-22pts) Betfair SP (26.83), Aberama +1pt, Presidential +1pt, East Street Revue +1pt 

Total: -21pts 

Total on the day: -8pts

Friday, 7 August 2020

1:50 Ascot Racing Tips & Lay Bets (8th August)

ASCOT 1.50 

Only Equiano Springs is known to lead but only when nothing else wants to and if leading here it might do enough to stay in the frame, I will look to lay (Highland Dress + Woven + Graceful Magic) both Dazzling Dan and Equitation could run well and might make the frame, I've got Chil Chil in 2nd position on my speed figures and along with top-rated horse THEOTHERSIDE 9/2 like to track the leaders, my selection is a 3yo that could still improve and has been found a nice chance to follow up its win last time out.

Theotherside 5/1 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Highland Dress +1pt, Woven +1pt, Graceful Magic +1pt


Total:  +2pts


HAYDOCK 4.25

At first, a nice looking 8 runner class 3 race with a couple of known frontrunners but I have got negatives against 5 of the field and I would look to lay (Wedding Date + So Sharp + She Can Dance + Sound Of Iona + She Can Boogie) most of them because they may fail to stay the distance if there is a fast early pace, which I expect there will be, in 3rd top spot overall is Dancing Feet but that is using a time recorded on an AW surface, my 2nd top-rated is Betsey Trotter the one I expect to set the pace and it could try to steal the race from the front but I think the jockey on ARISTOCRATIC LADY 13/8 will cover the move and go on to complete its hattrick, I suspect it will be the favourite.

Aristocratic Lady 13/8 1st (+1.625) Betfair SP (2.24)  

Lay bets: Wedding Date +1pt, So Sharp +1pt, She Can Dance +1pt, Sound Of Iona +1pt, She Can Boogie +1pt 

Total: +6.625pts

ASCOT 4.45 

I can find a couple of frontrunning types in the field of 10 here and also 4 to lay (Whelans Way + Bay Watch + Spirited Guest + Princess Power) all 4 of them race as though they will be better over a longer trip and may get outpaced in the early stages, Daschas is my 3rd top-rated and does stay on strongly at the finish over this minimum trip, I expect Kick On Kick On to set the early pace and it is my 2nd top-rated horse but the jockeys 0-46 record for this stable also the horse hasn't been in good form so far this year and maybe aimed at a future target so I will be backing BLUE DE VEGA 9/2 who won last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here and the apprentices 5lb claim can swing things in its favour. 

Blue De Vega 13/2 1st (+6.5pts) Betfair SP (8.67) 

Lay bets: Whelan's Way +1pt, Bay Watch +1pt, Spirited Guest +1pt, Princess Power +1pt

Total: +10.5pts 

HAYDOCK 4.55

A nice looking 8 runner class 4 race with a couple of known frontrunners and it could be won from the front, (Our Little Pony + Primos Comet) have negatives so I will look to lay them, the bottom weight Nibras Again won last time out but this rise in class will catch it out so I will add it to my lay list, Canford Bay may be in the grips of the handicapper of a rating of 81, Outrage is one the 2 possible pacesetters, Seen The Lyte could go well but my money will be on GLORY FIGHTER 9/2 and if it gets to the fore in this race it could prove hard to catch.

Glory Fighter 9/2 1st (+4.5pts) Betfair SP (5.28) 

Lay bets: Our Little Pony +1pt, Primo's Comet +1pt 

Total: +6.5pts

Total on the day: +25.625pts 

(Excellent work from our FREE TIPS) 

Thursday, 6 August 2020

Employing a strategy based on statistics against slots

So… are you thinking that this blog will provide you with a tried and tried, foolproof method of beating the odds (literally) and winning at slots whenever you play? Sorry! That is not what this is about. You can't 'beat the system' when it comes to slots such as www.megareel.com/all-games/jackpots/beehive-bedlam thanks to the random number generator (RNG) system that it all works on. There are so many different combinations and everything is – as the name suggests – random, so it’s not even your worth time trying.

It is possible to obtain an edge over the casino with regards to slots by checking out the RTP and picking a game with a good return to player ratio. You still cannot guarantee a win, but it can help. And there are a few more tricks that you might want to put in place (all of which are strategies based on statistics). 

Calculating Probabilities 

As we have stated, it is simply not possible to discover where slot symbols are likely to be once the reels cease spinning. And that is a part of the thrill and the fun of the game, all things considered. Still, if you were able to figure exactly what the likelihood of punching in a winning combination could be, you might choose to take it – it will help you to decide what games to play and what games to stay away from. 

The very first thing you will have to learn is exactly what the likelihood of winning on the slot you wish to play is. Plus you will have to determine exactly how much you will receive if you win (this should always be discovered in the paytable). And so the latter number is easily found (or should be – if there is no paytable listed then you might be on a fake site or at least one that isn’t regulated and you should try another instead), but the first is much more complicated. It can be done, however. 

Begin with the number of reels the game has. Then multiply that number by the amount of symbols on every reel, and also by the amount of stops on each reel. If you have three reels and they have five symbols each, the sum will be 5x5x5, which is 125. Which suggests that there are 125 ways to win. Next, you are going to want to know exactly how likely it is you're going to be able to win. To get this done, you have to learn what a winning combination is like and go from there. And so on a three-reel game, if you are going to win when three specific symbols are lined up, and there's just one of these symbols on every reel, you will do 1/5x1/5x1/5 which is 0.008 and that's the percentage chance of winning. Complicated? Perhaps – and when the number is even bigger it gets even more brain-busting! 

Can It Truly Be Done? 

We have to be truthful – knowing how you can accomplish this and have the ability to accomplish this are two different. Yes, it is possible to carry out these calculations and work out the odds of winning on games if you want to. It is best to try this with simpler games, perhaps older ones since they have fewer reels and consequently you will find fewer winning combinations. In more recent video games you will find thousands, and the time it will take to work out the likelihood of anything getting won would simply stop being worthwhile. 

In the long run, the smartest thing you can do with regards to slots is picking one with an excellent RTP along with a theme you like. The way, whether you win or lose, you are still going to have a great deal of fun.

5:50 Wolverhampton Racing Tips & Lay Bets (7th August)

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.50 

*SHESADABBER has poor form on the AW surfaces and I don't think this one suits it at all and one I would lay at 9/2.

HARD SOLUTION this one is versatile when it comes to racing tactics but here it might be trying to stay on at the finish and could possibly make the frame.

KRYSTALLITE has only slow times recently despite being a frontrunning type but its best time from 2018 could see it in the frame but I would lay it here 12/1.

TERRI RULES has slow c/d times to its name and this surface doesn't suit it so another one to lay especially at 4/1.

GEORGE THOMAS hasn't any form on this surface but has a decent time from Lingfield that would put it in the mix.

A GO GO its best time from 2019 isn't enough to make the frame but being a 3yo it could still improve.

SWELL SONG has the fastest c/d time from just 2020, in fact, its the only recorded time this year but would need to improve to win here but could make the frame.

INPENDENCE DAY has a slow time over this c/d from just 1 attempt, does it like the surface is the question, as it has a time from Chelmsford that would see it winning this race and its a possible frontrunner but too short at 10/3 to be of value.

EMPTY PROMISES has slow c/d times and poor form recently and still a maiden after 7 races so I will look to lay it but it is a 50/1 outsider. 

CAPTAIN RYAN hasn't any recent c/d time but has a time from 2019 that makes it my top-rated here and maybe 2nd top overall, it's one run this year was quite poor but the 3rd horse in the race that could set the pace. 

TEEPEE TIME 16/1 this will be the 5th horse I look to lay in this race as this surface doesn't seem to suit it if there's a fast early pace.

CONCLUSION: I've mentioned 5 in the race I would hope to lay, I will have to have a small covering bet on Independence Day who is a possible frontrunner and its time from Chelmsford would win the race but I am not 100% sure this surface suits so my bet will be CAPTAIN RYAN 18/1 (EW) who had its 1st run of the year about 3 weeks ago, its a possible pacesetter and in the make-up of this race it could get to the rails from stall 5 and its then capable of leading all the way plus its a horse that can return to winning ways without prior warning and at the price it has to be worth an each-way punt.

*NR

Captain Ryan 20/1 (EW) 2nd (+3pts) (Betfair Win 26 - Place 6.28)

Lay bets: Krystallite +1pt, Terri Rules +1pt, Empty Promises +1pt, Teepee Time +1pt

Total on the day: +7pts 

Wednesday, 5 August 2020

1:15 Ripon Racing Tips & Lay Bets (6th August)

RIPON 1.15 

A nice field of 11 runners in this class 3 race, I will hope to lay (Fairy Stories + True Mason) both may struggle to stay the distance if Bossipop sets a fast pace which is capable of doing and could do enough from the front to make the frame and has a stablemate, Staxton who could also make the frame and this one has the fasted time from 2020 only and 3rd top overall, Watchable will be running on at the finish and its best time from Epsom 2019 makes it 2nd best on my own speed figures, GUNMETAL 5/1 has a time from this year at Newmarket that would make it 3rd top on just 2020 times but has a time from Ascot in 2019 that puts it at the top of my figures and will be carrying some of my money. 

Gunmetal 11/2 3rd (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Fairy Stories +1pt, True Mason +1pt

Total: +1pt


BATH 3.40

A 9 runner dash where 4 of them like to front-run so it should be fast and furious and as long as they don't cut each other's throats I think it will be won from the front, a couple I would lay are (Jaganory + Bequest) both King Crimson and Thegreyvtrain like to lead and are my joint 3rd top-rated so either or both could go well, the horse that might prosper if the leaders do push each other too much is Moonraker but this one doesn't seem to want genuine good to firm ground so it may not finish fast enough to pick up the leaders, I am hoping my top-rated beast, CORONATION COTTAGE 11/2 can get to the front and if doing so it ought to prove pretty hard to catch and the jockey booking has a18% win ratio for the stable, makes me expect it will run a very big race in this race.

Coronation Cottage 11/2 1st (+5.5pts)

Lay bets: Jaganory +1pt, Bequest +1pt

Total:  +7.5pts

Total on the Day: +8.5pts

Tuesday, 4 August 2020

4:35 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets (5th August)

LINGFIELD 4.35 

A strange-looking class 5 sprint where I would look to lay (Requited + Ahorsecalledwanda + London Calling + You Don't Own Me) Lethal Angel has a time from Chelmsford in 2018 that would make it 4th top-rated overall while the 3yo Fromnowon has a time from the turf that would see it just make the frame but hasn't run on any AW surface before, SWISS PRIDE 14/1 is actually my 2nd top-rated but with the apprentice jockeys 5lb allowance it's only 1lb below the top-rated but this one is a frontrunning type and in the make-up of this race it could get away quickly and gain control of the rails which is always a bonus but the topweight *ZAC BROWN 14/1 is the one rated that 1lb higher and is a very versatile type and the only downside is the stall 12 draw but if things go its way it could catch the winner very close to the finish but I will back them both to cover the angles of a frontrunner and a finishing type.

*NR

Swiss Pride 14/1 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Requited -14pts, Ahorsecalledwando +1pt, London Calling +1pt, You Don't Own Me +1pt

Total on the day: -12pts

Monday, 3 August 2020

2:15 Catterick Racing Tips & Lay Bets (4th August)

CATTERICK 2.15

I think its a shame there's only 7 runners but hey ho there's nothing I can do about it, I would look to lay (Fox Hill + Mutabaahy + Jill Rose) Red Pike comes out 3rd top on it best 2019 time, Longroom likes to track the leaders and comes out 2nd top overall but I am hoping DAPPER MAN 14/1 can lead in this race and if getting to the front and reproducing its best Newmarket time from 2019 would have a few spots in hand and win cosily, I would love to put this up as an each-way bet but cannot with only 2 places up for grabs. 

Dapper Man 14/1 5th (-2pts)

Lay bets: Fox Hill +1pt, Mutabaahy +1pt, Jill Rose 0pt

BEVERLEY 2.30 

This is a race I would normally leave well alone, its a very poor class 6 affair with a lot of either 3yo’s or lightly races horses but the topweight QAARAAT 8/1 has become well handicapped recently and in this race, it's carrying the topweight against inferior horses and looks to have been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways and the price is a little more than I was expecting. 

Qaaraat 8/1 5th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

CATTERICK 3.15 

A race where there's quite a few lightly raced sorts so my stakes won't be at full tilt maybe it's not really a race to be betting in and it's only after looking at the tissue prices have I decided to write up this race, Carlovian and Indian Pursuit should make sure there's a good early pace and either could do enough to make the frame, B Fifty Two could go well but doesn't like really fast going, the one to catch my eye is, of course, top-rated who is well weighted on its best tie from Doncaster last year but this one does want genuine good to firm ground to show its best so if the going is ideal I will back LUCKY BEGGAR 7/1. 

Lucky Beggar 11/1 8th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

LINGFIELD 6.15

I love my AW racing but this is a dire affair, of the 11 runners I could probably lay 7 of them and maybe the 3yo bottom-weight maybe should be added to the list, Bernies Boy is my 3rd top-rated but that's using a 2018 time and looks to be on a downward spiral but could get placed here as the race is that bad, Cappananty Con is 2nd top-rated on 2020 times and could go well but I will be backing TOMSHALFBROTHER 10/3 who is the top rate on this year's speed figures and the trainer has a 27% win ratio with their older horses on this course.

Tomshalfbrother 10/3 6th (-1pt)

Total -1pt 

Total on the day: -3pts 

Sunday, 2 August 2020

3:15 Haydock Racing Tips (3rd August)

HAYDOCK 3.15 

A pity there's only 7 runners for this class 2 dash, I would look to lay (*Aplomb) if the going is good to firm, I could easily have added Tanasoq as it races as though it's better over a longer trip but it could run on into a place if capable of reproducing its best 2018 time, I think that Princes Des Sables looks the most likely pacesetter and as it's my 2nd top-rated it could do enough to make the frame but I will be backing MOUNTAIN PEAK 3/1 hoping it can pick up the leader inside the final furlong and it has good trainer 26% and jockey 25% stats making me think they are expecting the win here. 

*NR

Mountain Peak 3/1 1st (+3pts)

Total: +3pts


YARMOUTH 4.00

This is a race which I should leave well alone as there's a couple fo 3yo’s and other lightly raced sorts but I found 2 with ratings on my figures a few spots better than the rest that had got recorded times and one that could lead is my 3rd top-rated so Kraka could be dangerous with an easy lead and could make the frame, Delegate The Lady is my joint top rated but on the SL tissue prices, they make it the favourite so it won't be any value to take a risk on but RINTY MAGINTY 11/1 (EW) is forecast to be a double-figure price and if so might be worth risking with a small each-way punt. 

Abandoned 

WINDSOR 5.40 

For a class 5 race, this looks a very nice affair, there's 3 known front-running types so it should be true run but I think they will set the race up for something coming from off the pace, of the early types Belated Breath may do best of them and could hold on for a place, (A Sure Welcome) is capable of doing a fast time but usually in a lower class race and maybe worth laying if a single figure price, both Total Commitment and Magical Ride are capable of running big races but I will be siding with ARCANADA 4/1 who likes to sit just behind the pace and then finish strongly at the business end and it good trainer/jockey stats which is always a positive. 

Arcanada 5/1 6th (-1pt)

Lay bet: A Sure Welcome +1pt

Total: 0pts

YARMOUTH 6.00

Only 6 runners but a very competitive affair, if Laith Alareen gets to the front it could prove hard to catch for most of the runners if reproducing its best rating from Newmarket in 2019 but the bottom weight EXCELLENT GEORGE 9/1 has a time from Windsor in 2019 that makes it my top-rated and likes a fast pace to aim at so this race could be run to suit it and will be carrying my money. 

Abandoned 

WINDSOR 6.15 

Another 6 runner race with Just Glamorous known as a frontrunner so could have an easy lead but will do very well to pinch this race from the front, on the tissue prices they make the 3yo (Wonderwork) the 11/8 favourite but I'm not convinced it will like the going if it's good to firm so I would lay it at such a short price, I expect Daschas to run a decent race and it will be trying to stay on at the distance but maybe too late so I will be backing SPOOF 7/1 and this bottom weight is my top rated and the trainer does ok at this course.

Spoof 7/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Wonderwork -3.5pts

Total: -4.5pts

Total on the day: -1.5pts