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Sunday, 11 April 2021

3:40 Windsor Racing Tips (12th April)

WINDSOR 3.40 

This I a strange race to analyse simply because of the lack of known front runners, I've marked 4 down as being very much out of form, Green Power, Last Page, Heer We Go Again and Company Minx, but I think they will all be biggish prices, Beyond Equal and My Style might need this run for fitness, with both Edraak and Capotes Dream I'm not sure what to expect as I haven't much data to work with so I couldn't either back them or lay them so I will as usual stick with the proven, Triggered would need to improve time wise to win this race but maybe too big a price to lay, Second Collection comes out 3rd best on my figures and could maybe worth an each way interest, there is only 1lb between, Bimble who is coming off a 183 day break from racing and might just need this run for fitness, in 2nd top spot and THE LAMPLIGHTER 14/1 who sits at the top of my figures, this one had its first run since last October last month and hopefully that has got it into shape for this race, the trainer has a 23% win ratio with their older horses at this course and has employed a cracking 5lb claiming apprentice and that could tip things in its favour but as usual at the price i suggest an each way wager may be the best way to go in this race. 

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.20 

Again a race with no known front runner, I've got 6, London Calling, Akua, Egrecio, Where Next Jo, Lets Get Lucky and Raabeh, marked down as out of form and I expect will all be big prices but i would look to lay any or aloof them if of any value to do so, Al Asef may be better over further so this race might not be run to suit it but its not one I could lay, Sir Rodneyredblood, Kaafy and I'm Watching You are just outside my 3 ratings although the former, Sir Rodneyredblood 5/2 has a time from Lingfield that would make it my joint 2nd top rated so it could possibly make the frame but its not one I would back each way especially at the price, Puchita comes out 2rd top on recent c/d figures but I'm not sure it will run after running on Saturday where it has a good chance of winning but if it does it could make the frame, the other horse in 2nd top spot is Aces 9/1 who is usually held up for a late run but I will be siding with BERNIES BOY 10/1 who, if the forecast tissue prices are right, will be an each way price and the value call in the race. ( this one finished well to take 3rd on Saturday so maybe the price will not be as big as i hoped) but it is an each way price and that has to be my bet.

Friday, 9 April 2021

1:25 Lingfield Racing Tips (10th April)

LINGFIELD 1.25 

I can see 3 runners that have been known to lead and maybe Requited and or Lethal Blast could do best of them, the latter has a good speed figure on my ratings but its only managed to make the frame twice from 8 runs so maybe its best time was when it got towed along in a fast run race and the time might be a bit of a fluke, the top weight She Can Do hasn't any c/d form to work with but has a good time from Chelmsford over this distance but is a maiden after 10 races, Fairy Fast and Terri Rules have times that could make them dangerous but I will be having my money on LADY FLORENCE 6/1 who usually runs on well at the finish and this race should be run to suit its racing style and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Lady Florence 15/2 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

LINGFIELD 2.00 

Up to class 3 but only 6 runners with a couple of known front runners in Recon Mission and Autumn Flight but both need to improve time wise to hold on for the win although the latter was impressive when winning last time out but maybe it was flattered when looking at the speed figure from the race, Just Glamorous and Duke Of Firenze are my joint 3rd top rated, actually Newyorkstateofmind comes out top rated but firstly it might need this run for fitness and its wins have come in lower class races so I will placing my faith and money on OUTRAGE 9/4 and this ones trainer does well at this course and usually runs on well over this shortest distance. 

Outrage 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.45 

Firstly a couple that I'm not sure what to expect of them, Heptathlete and Twice As Likely, so I couldn't back or lay them but they will mean my stakes will be kept low, the early pace might be set by Love Love who has been known to lead if nothing else wants to and there isn't any natural front runner in the race, Isabella Ruby is better over shorter distances but if there's a slow early pace it could go well, there's two horses from the Antony Brittain stable and either of them could win this race, Klopp would win the race if able to reproduce its best time from 2019 but its best speed figure from 2020 would leave it a bit short so I will back its stablemate PUCHITA 9/2 who is top rated on recent c/d times and then has the added of advantage of a good 5lb claiming apprentice who has a 20% win ratio on the stables older horses.

Puchita 11/2 4th -1pt 

Total on the day - 3pts


Thursday, 8 April 2021

6:40 Kempton Racing Tips (9th April)

KEMPTON 6.40 

SHOW ME A SUNSET 2/1 can struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace but this race might be ok for it but isn't any value at the price. 

PRODUCTION 11/2 has good trainer/jockey stats and could be the main danger to the one I will be backing that is if it doesn't need this race for fitness which i think it might. 

LILKLAN 6/1 has a fast time from Chelmsford in 2020 but would need to improve on its c/d time to win here.

AMATHUS 33/1 is held by Lilklan and has only slow times at this c/d and its not on my radar as a potential winner here. 

HECTOR LOZA 14/1 always looks as though a longer distance would suit better and has only slow times over this distance.

STEELRIVER 6/1 will be trying to stay on at the business end of this race but this race might not be run to suit it with no known front runners in the field. 

PLUNGER 16/1 has only poor form from its most recent races and it also looks like a horse that needs further to show its true merit. 

PHOENIX STAR 11/2 another that will be trying to stay on at the finish and has good trainer and jockey stats and is my top rated.

DUBAI ELEGANCE 11/1 has only slow times from its two previous c/d runs and it seems a better horse over shorter distances. 

SUMMARY: If I knew who would set the pace and how fast it would go then I would be more confident with my analysis, Lilklan could go well as could Dubai Elegance as long as there's not a fast early pace, Production would be the main danger if its fit enough after having a break from racing so i will be backing PHOENIX STAR 11/2 who usually tracks the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish but wouldn't want the early pace to be too slow.

Phoenix Star 10/1 9th -1pt

Total on the day -1pt

Wednesday, 7 April 2021

1:00 Southwell Racing Tips (8th April)

SOUTHWELL 1.00 

(The times recently on this surface have been very slow so any stakes have to be kept low) I expect Aleef to be one of the two horses who set the early pace here and it could do enough to at least make the frame, Quannah and Somewhere Secret have times from elsewhere that would put them in the mix but neither have raced on this surface before, True Hero is the other known front runner and won over c/d last time out and did record a slowish time but that's been the norm recently on this surface so could follow up here and I will use it as a cover bet but my main bet will be on ARZAAK 13/2 who has a time from last year that would see it winning but was behind True Hero last time out here so my stake will be kept low. 

Arzaak 13/2 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 1.35

There's 2 known front runners in this field of 10 and to be totally honest there isn't really enough recent data to be sure of the final analysis but i will put forward one that i will be having a small bet on, JAZZ LEGEND 8/1 is one of the 2 possible pacesetters and if getting to the front it could prove hard to peg back, it has the best recent time which is a bonus with how slow this surface is riding and its best time from 2019 would see it having every chance of leading all the way and if big enough in price i would go with an each way bet. 

Jazz Legend 16/1 6th -2pts

Total -2pt

SOUTHWELL 3.15 

This is a tricky looking race, there isn't any I could discard completely although I'm not sure this surface suits Batchelor Boy and could be worth laying but it is one of only two known leading types in this race, if I'm right that would leave Thrave to make the early pace and this one is one of 3 that are my co-2nd favs and recent c/d times, One Hart might also be better on a faster surface, my money will be riding on EXCESSABLE 9/2 who likes track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the jockey has a good 22% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Excessable 5/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

This race is poor even for a class 6 stakes race and there's only one horse with a recorded time over this c/d in recent times, 2020/21, Brandy Station destroyed its field last time out but as for normal around here lately the time was slow and its best time on Tapeta wouldn't quite be enough to win this race so I will be having a small wager on RED STRIPES 6/1 who can lead but has also been known to stay on strongly at the finish if the leaders fade. 

Red Stripe 6/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 7.50 

A six runner race where half of them could lead and they may well set the race up for one of those finishing well nearing the finish, of the front runners Global Prospector may do best as its my 3rd top rated, in 2nd top spot is The Nosey Parker but this one hasn't any form at this course as its best time was at Wolverhampton on a different surface, so I will be backing *JUMIRA BRIDGE 6/1 hoping it can finish strongly here and pick them all up nearing the finish.

*NR 

Total on the day -5pts

Tuesday, 6 April 2021

1:45 Catterick Racing Tips (7th April)

CATTERICK 1.45 

NOT ON YOUR NELLIE 5/1 may not prefer the going to be too fast and won at Ripon on good ground and that time would make it my top rated. 

CAPTAIN CORCORAN 3/1 this one only has slow times over this distance and looks as though further would suit it better and at the price i would have a small lay bet. 

USTATH 9/1 one of five horses that has been known to lead but hasn't shown much time wise recently and its last win was in 2018 so another i would lay if it stays at a single figure price.

HARROGATE 8/1 the 2nd possible pacesetter and comes out 2nd top on recent, 2020/21, times and 3rd top overall but is 0-7 on turf. 

ALSVINDER 11/4 is number 3 that could lead and its best recent time would make it 3rd top but slips to 4th best on overall speed figures. 

BLACKCURRANT 10/1 the 4th possible leader has only slow times over this distance on turf and hasn't made the frame from its 5 turf runs, so maybe best when running on the AW tracks.

CARLOVIAN 12/1 this one races as though it needs a slower surface or maybe a longer distance and it could be it needs both and I think it will be an outsider in this race. 

SUWAAN 8/1 the 5th and final front runner but this one has been in bad form on its last few runs and hasn't won a race since 2017, so I will lay it at the price. 

SUMMARY: With 5 possible front runners in this apprentice riders handicap it could play into the hands of one of the 3 runners coming from off the pace at the finish, if pushed I think that Harrogate or Alsvinder could do best of those racing from the front but they could go off too fast and fade nearing the finish, Carlovian and Captain Corcoran have both been known to stay on at the finish over this distance and maybe need further which leaves me with the top weight NOT ON YOUR NELLIE 5/1 who doesn't want it to be really firm going, which I doubt it will be, and if able to reproduce its best speed figure from Ripon last year would see it winning with a bit in hand but, there is nearly always a but, it hasn't run since last September and therefore may need this run for fitness but I cannot find anything in the race to back so I will go with a smallish win bet.

Not On Your Nellie 12/1 1st +12pts (Betfair sp 17.07)

Total on the day 12pts

Monday, 5 April 2021

3:10 Bath Racing Tips (6th April)

BATH 3.10 

An 8 runner race where half the field have been known to lead, it looks likely that this race could be won from the front, of those coming from off the pace I think that Zulu Zander 13/2 could do best as long as it doesn't get outpaced in the early stages and could be an each way bet if a decent price, Diligent Lady 9/1 is in stall 1 and a possible pacesetter but the jockeys 1-17 record on the stables horses puts me off its chances, King Of Stars is making its debut in England and could be anything as it hasn't raced on good or good to firm going before so not sure what to expect but I will as usual stick with proven, there is only 1lb between Union Rose 7/2 who is in 2nd top position and HAVEONEYERSELF 11/1 (EW) and if this one gets to the front it could prove hard to catch and a repeat of its best time from Yarmouth last year would see it just hang on for the win but its so close my stakes will be kept to a minimum and at the price i will suggest having an each way bet. 

Haveoneyerself 11/1 8th -2pts

Total -2pts

CHELMSFORD 8.30 

Another 8 runner race where half the field have been known to lead, I will lay both Busby and The Night Watch if they are single figure prices as both look to want further to shine and both of them are not in my 4 possible pacesetters, Big Time Maybe 4/1 has the best draw for a front runner but has poor trainer/jockey stats of a 4% win ratio which puts me off and way too short in my opinion, Super Julius 8/1 in stall 3 hasn't shown much worthwhile time wise for quite awhile now and is a fair bit shorter in price than i expected, I cannot split the other 2 possible pacesetters, Something Lucky 13/2 and Kath's Lustre 4/1, the former has a decent jockey win ratio of 15% and the apprentices 7lb claim could be invaluable but the trainer only wins 4% of their races at this course, while the latter has a decent trainer stat who wins 18% of their races at this course but that drops to 12% on just the stables older horses, Amazing Amaya 3/1 will be running on at the finish and the jockeys record for the stable is 1 win from 3 rides but will need the leaders to fade a little to win this race, I would normally go confidently with LETHAL ANGEL 9/2 for whom this is a drop in class and the jockey has a 38% win ratio on the stables older horse but it hasn't had a run for about 4 months and usually needs a run for fitness after a break, I will have a minimum stake bet on it and hope its fit enough to do itself justice.

Lethal Angel 9/2 2nd -1pt

Total on the day -3pts
    

Grand National 2021: It's Only a Matter of Time

The Grand National 2021.

10th April. Aintree. Liverpool. The greatest steeplechase in the world. A race of stories. Fortune favours the brave. However, there is one story that has only been mentioned in brief and the conclusion is still waiting for that ultimate winner. 

The first female rider to win the Grand National. 

Surely, it's only a matter of time. Considering the Grand National dates back to 1839 (won by a horse named Lottery) we've seen a lot of winners and losers. The vast majority of horses ridden by men. In fact, did you know that just 17 female jockeys have been given their chance to to negotiate this iconic course?

Horse racing has seen so many positive changes over the last few decades and there is a live hope that this year's Grand National winner may be ridden by someone made of sugar and spice and all things nice. 

Betway's ambassador Katie Walsh narrates this fascinating video, below, which inspires. 

Walsh boasts the best finishing position of any female to complete the National, finishing third on Seabass in 2012.  

Take a look at this animated history video from Betway of female jockeys in the Grand National. 

Sunday, 4 April 2021

2:20 Kempton Racing Tips (5th April)

KEMPTON 2.20 

Only 5 runners but luckily there's a couple of known front running types, Top Breeze could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I doubt Lihou will allow that to happen, Blue De Vega may be better over a longer trip so will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win this race, Han Solo Berger would need to improve time wise to win this race so I will be backing ROYAL BIRTH 11/2 who can be held up or track the leaders and this race could be run to suit it, so at the price looks the value call for this race.

Royal Birth 7/1 1st +7pts (Betair sp 9.43)

Total +7pts 

REDCAR 3.25 

I'm hoping the going is good to firm as forecast, firstly I will lay (Intrinsic) who I think will be better over a longer distance, there's a few horses out of form who i could lay but they are all big prices, Redrosezorro could go well here and being a possible pacesetter it could do enough to make the frame, others that have some figures that would make them competitive, Woven, Embour, Wentworth Falls and Fortimour, Gale Force Max has a time from 2019 that would give it a chance here but i am hoping another possible pacesetter, BOSSIPOP 18/1 (EW), can get to the front and then prove hard to catch and the jockey has a 15% win ratio on the stables older horses, so at the price I have to go with an each way bet. 

Bossipop 18/1 Unp -2pts 

Lay bet Intrinsic +1pt

Total -1pt

KEMPTON 5.10 

A field of 7 here with just Desert Safari known as a front runner but I doubt it can lead and hod on for the win, Lord Rapscallion may need further to shine, Lexington Dash will be running on but I'm not sure what to think about its chances of winning but I will go with the proven, Fresh and Jonah James could go well if reproducing their best ratings, Treacherous comes out top rated on its best time from 2020 but it is only good enough for 2nd top spot overall so I’ll be backing TOTAL COMMITMENT 7/1 who is only 3rd best on recent, 2020/21, c/d times but its best time from this surface at Lingfield makes it my top rated and it usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the strongest at the business end of the race.

Total Commitment 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day +5pts

Saturday, 3 April 2021

1:00 Southwell Racing Tips (4th April)

SOUTHWELL 1.00 

Today's two sprints are pretty poor affairs and stakes will be kept to a minimum, the early pace might be set by Jeans Maite but strictly on form its not weighted to beat AGUEROOO 9/2 again, San Juan is forecast to be the 2nd favourite but again at the weights its held but this time by Red Allure, Brandy Station has a decent time from Newcastle but slow times from its 7 previous c/d runs so maybe isn't suited to this surface and the jockeys 0-11 record for this stable has to be taken as a negative,RAABEH 18/1 hasn't made the frame in 9 races but does have a good time from Newcastle but that might have been a flukey time where it got carried along in a fast run affair but it has good trainer/jockey stats so maybe today is the day it breaks its maiden tag, DARK SIDE DREAM 6/1 has good trainer stats and is my top rated on recent c/d times which is always a positive and I will be dutching the 3 horses. 

Dark Side Dream 6/1 2nd -1pt 
Rabaah 18/1 4th -1pt
Aguerooo 9/2 5th -1pt 

Total -3pts

SOUTHWELL 3.36 

This is a tricky looking race with just one known front runner in Jazz Legend but time wise it would need to improve to hold on for the win but could make the frame, First Excel is versatile with its racing tactics and is another that could make the frame,others that have a competitive time from awhile ago or different tracks are,Tyche, Catapult, Deevious Beau, Burning Sun and Kommander Kirkup but I will have a small bet on the top weight DECISION MAKER 13/2 who if it can repeat its best time from 2020 it would win this race a shade cosily but has a 171 day break from racing to overcome and the fact that it wasn't in the best of form when it was last seen but is capable and the jockey has a 20% win ratio for the stable so I am hoping that is a good omen.

Decision Maker 13/2 2nd -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

Friday, 2 April 2021

6:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (3rd April)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 

Airshow is the only known front runner in the race but time wise it doesn't quite make my top 3 and its best form is over 5 furlongs, Grey Galleon 3rd best on recent, 2020/21 c/d times usually stays on at the business end of a race, Hurcle hasn't any surface form and may be better over a shorter trip, Save The Spirit hasn't any c/d form but has a good time from Newcastle but I'm put off by the jockeys 0-11 record for the stable, Jackstar comes out 2nd top on recent c/d times but that drops to 4th on overall figures, Tathmeen is my top rated on recent c/d times and has to have a very good chance here, Martineo hasn't any recent c/d times but has a good time from 2019 that would make it 2nd top on overall figures and has recorded a good time at Lingfield this year which shows its in decent form, Superiority has only had one c/d run which was in a slow time and looks better over shorter trips, Big Impact may need further to shine and hasn't shown much decent form lately. 

CONCLUSION: I will be backing two runners in this race, TATHMEEN 10/1 who is usually held up for a late run and is top rated on recent c/d times which is always a positive, MARTINEO 2/1 has shown at Lingfield its in good form this year which was within 1lb of its best time recorded here in 2019 and this one likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish.

Tathmeen 12/1 1st +12pts (Betfair sp 13.75 ) EX £35.50
Martineo 11/8 2nd -1pt 

Total on the day +11pts