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Sunday, 25 October 2020

5:30 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (26th October )

NEWCASTLE 5.30 

BATCHELOR BOY 15/2 hasn't any c/d form to its name and its best time on this surface leaves it a few spots off the top spot but is versatile with its racing tactics.

OUTRAGE 11//1 a possible pacesetter and its best time over this c/d in 2019 make it my top-rated and the trainer is 2-2 with their runners here. 

DOC SPORTELLO 9/1 a versatile horse with its racing tactics and its best c/d time which came from 2018 still wouldn't see it winning this race.

SECRETINTHEPARK 16/1 one that could try to lead, its hasn't any recent AW form and its best from last year would still leave it a little bit short. 

LINE OF REASON 14/1 has a good time from 2017 but seems to be a little bit slower each year for this old-timer. 

GOWANBUSTER 14/1 another where I have to go back to 2018 to find its best and even then its best wouldn't be good enough to win this race.

MANSHOOD 12/1 I doubt it will be able to lead in this race and always looks to me as though further suits it better.

LUA DEL MEL 8/1 a 3yo who has only had 1 run over this c/d and its best overall figure would see it fall short of making the frame.

DAZZLING DES 6/1 this one will be trying to stay on at the finish and may do best of those coming from off the pace.

MERCENARY ROSE 14/1 hasn't any recent form on this surface and it would need to improve on its best time from last year to win this race.

ANOTHER ANGEL 8/1 is a frontrunning sort and is one side of the draw in stall 1 and this one is my top-rated on a time recorded here earlier this year. 

DUKE OF FIRENZE 6/1 has only 4 runs on the AW and has achieved 2 placed runs but timewise its been short of winning.

FRIENDLY ADVICE 18/1 has only a slow time from its 1 run over this c/d so would need to improve to win.

KIND REVIEW 11/2 hasn't any distance form to its name and might need a longer distance to show its true worth.

SUMMARY: A 5-furlong dash with 6 of the 14 runners having been known to lead before so it will be fast and furious, I will look to lay (Kind Review 11/2 who may need further to show its best and looks poor value, Manshood who also may need further) a few years ago, 2017 in fact, Line Of Reason would win this race win a little cosily but time catches up with everyone, my money in this race will be riding on ANOTHER ANGEL 8/1 (EW) who is a frontrunner and has stall 1 draw so it should get a clear run and if getting to the front it should prove hard to catch and the switch back to this 5lb claiming apprentice makes me think the horse's connections are expecting it to get back to winning ways but I also cannot ignore OUTRAGE 11/1 (EW) who hasn't been in great form so far this year but has a time from 2019 that makes it top-rated overall and the trainer's record here means I cannot ignore the horse I will be backing both horses with each way wagers.

Saturday, 24 October 2020

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Friday, 23 October 2020

4:42 Chelmsford Racing Tips (24th October)

CHELMSFORD 4.42 Div I 

I have to admit this isn't a great race, only 4 of the 12 runners have a recorded time, there is a couple of horses that have been known to lead before so Mykindofsunshine or Edge Of The Bay could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, I have the former marked down as a possible hidden danger and the latter is my 3rd top-rated, Leo Minor is my 2nd top-rated but the jockeys 0-13 record for the stable puts me off a bit so I will be backing CAPTAIN RYAN 10/3 who is usually held up for a late run so this race could be run to suit it and the jockey has a decent 17% win ratio for the stable on their older horses but I am a bit disappointed with its price so I'm hoping it might drift before the off. 

Captain Ryan 9/1 3rd (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

CHELMSFORD 5.15 Div II

This 2nd division is by far the better division with 7 of the 11 having a recorded speed figure, I think Rocketeer from stall 2 could be the one to set the pace but I doubt it will do enough from the front to hold on for the win, Shepherds Purse, Indian Pursuit, Atyaaf, Awake In Asia and Illustrious Spirit all could go well and battle to fill the places, my money will be riding on AQUADABRA 15/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish it hasn't any previous c/d form but if it can reproduce its best time from Lingfield, the same surface and both are left-handed courses, over this distance, it would be winning a shade cosily here. 

Aquadabra 14/1 5th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

CHELMSFORD 6.15 

I would look to lay (Nigel Nott) who may struggle to stay the distance in the make-up of this race with plenty of early pace, Champagne Supanova is a possible pacesetter and is my 2nd top-rated on just 2020 c/d times, MR WAGYU 12/1 is another possible pacesetter but hasn't any form on this surface but has a time from turf on good to firm ground that would give it every chance in this race so will be carrying some of my money as an each-way wager, Daschas has poor recent form but would go well if reproducing its best 2018 time, another I will back in this race is ENTHAAR 15/2 who has the fastest time from just this year which is always a positive and this one is versatile when it comes to racing tactics but maybe stall 13 isn't ideal if it wanted to lead but this one has a good 18% win ratio for the trainer her and the jockey have over 20% win ratio for this stable and that will make it my main bet in the race.

Mr Wagyu 20/1 9th (-2pt)
Enthaar 16/1 Unp (-1pt)

Total: -3pts

Total on the day: -5pts

Thursday, 22 October 2020

This Time Next Month I'll Be A Millionaire

You may be looking at the header graphic and noticed something has changed. 

It's like a spot the difference competition...

Sorry, but the other picture has been removed so you will have to use your imagination. 

Those words in a strange Fuschia pink: 1 Million Page Views

Sure, there will be one or two of you calling trading standards as the official number at this time is 995,000+. I woke early this morning so I thought I would do a little bit of admin and change the header graphic while I have a few minutes on my side. 

Here are a few facts about Eric Winner blog that you may not know:

The blog started on the 1st of February 2014. 

It averages 12,000 page views a month. Two of the last three months have achieved over 18,000. 

The most page views in any one month came back in the month of March, 2016. A grand total of 22,513 page views. 

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Reputation 16/1

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Wednesday, 21 October 2020

4:05 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (22nd October)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.05 

WATCHABLE 10/1 has the fastest c/d time for just 2020 races but its best from Newcastle in 2019 is only good enough for 5th top overall.

ORNATE 14/1 is a natural frontrunning sort but it's drawn widest of all of the 4 possible pacesetters which aren't ideal and this one's best figure from Newcastle is 4th top overall.

EL GUANCHE 12/1 hasn't run in the UK before and looking at its form it may be a better proposition when tried over a longer distance.

LEODIS DREAM 14/1 is a possible frontrunner and has the best drawn in stall 1, its best time comes from Chelmsford and its best c/d time is a bit short of the top-rated horses.

PISTOLETTO 25/1 a 3yo that hasn't got much form to work with but I think it's another that will be better when tried over further. 

FIZZY FEET 11/2 is 2nd best on just 2020 c/d times and that is its best rating but that is a good few spots short or the top-rated horses.

EMBOUR 11/1 has its best time from Chelmsford which would be good enough for 3rd top spot overall, it should stay on but maybe too late for the win but could make the frame. 

TOP BREEZE 3/1 is a possible pacesetter and from stall 3 it could either lead or at least contest the lead and is my top rated using its best time from Lingfield. 

BENNY AND THE JETS 7/2 the 4th possible pacesetter is 2nd best overall using a Chelmsford and 3rd best on just 2020 c/d times so could go well. 

HAN SOLO BERGER 12/1 hasn't run on this surface before and its best from Kempton wouldn't be good enough so will need to improve for the switch to this surface.

VERNE CASTLE 9/1 hasn't any recent c/d form and its best from 2017/18 would leave it just outside my top ratings. 

SUMMARY: I think this race could well be won from the front with only 7lbs between the four known front running types and it could be the draw which is the biggest factor, Leodis Dream in stall 1 and TOP BREEZE 3/1 in stall 3 could set the pace and if the latter gets to the front it ought to prove hard to catch and the 5lb claiming apprentice has an 18% win ratio on this stables older horses and I'm hoping that connections are expecting it to win here.

Top Breeze 3/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total on the day -1pt

Tuesday, 20 October 2020

7:45 Kempton Racing Tips (21st October)

KEMPTON 7.45

A strange race to analyse mainly due to both 3yo’s and lightly raced sorts, there are a couple of known front running types in Kodiac Attack and Buy Me Back and the latter is my 3rd top-rated using just 2020 c/d times so could possibly make the frame, the top weight Brenner Pass is my 2nd top-rated on 2020 c/d times and usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish, Nezar is top-rated on 2020 c/d times and another that likes to track the leaders ready to pounce nearing the finish and could be worth an each-way wager if a double-figure price but I will be backing INVINCIBLE LARNE 6/1 who has never run over this c/d but it has a time from Chelmsford, the same surface but left-handed while this course is right-handed if taking to this course and able to reproduce its best time it would win this race rather cosily and as that time was recorded this year I am willing to take that risk. 

Invincible Larne 6/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt


KEMPTON 8.15 

This is a dire affair and its only because I've seen a horse that looks overpriced on the tissue prices that I am bothering with the race, I've only got 5 with recorded times Passional is 5th top using a Southwell time and may be better over further and this race might not be run to suit its style, Bold Decision 4th top but looks to want a slower surface or further or maybe both, Mercers is 3rd top using a c/d time from last year and could make the frame but maybe won't be an each-way price, *Fard is 2nd top-rated using a Newcastle time from 2019 and has a decent time over the same c/d this year and maybe worth an each-way punt, URBAN HIGHWAY 11/1 is top rated using a Lingfield time from last year, it hasn't shown much so far this year but has (EW) raced mainly in slightly higher grade races and the switch of jockey makes me think they are expecting an improved performance here.

Urban Highway 14/1 8th (-2pt) 

Total -2pts

Total on the day: -3pts

Monday, 19 October 2020

3:00 Newcastle - Free Horse Racing Tips (20th October)

NEWCASTLE 3.00 

With 6 races today each race will be a short summary hopefully with all the essentials, there isn't much data to work with with a lot of these runners so any stakes will be kept low, Gunmetal could be one of the pacesetters here and my 4th top rated on c/d times, Wild Edric my 3rd top rated and Deputise in 2nd top spot both recorded their best times at Wolverhampton but I have BRIAN THE SNAIL 14/1  (EW) as my top rated and I am hoping this one will be an each way price, it has a decent jockey booking making me think they are expecting a good run. 

Brian The Snail 14/1 1st (2pts) +17.5pts

Total: +17.5pts (Betfair SP 15.05)

KEMPTON 4.35 

Not a bad looking class 5 affair with a couple of known front running types, Secretfact 4th top and Katherine Place 3rd top are both in their positions using c/d times from 2019 so could battle to make the frame if reproducing their best, I've actually got joint top rated horses in King Robert who recorded its best time this year but stall 9 might not be ideal for it with the make-up of this race so I will be banking on AUTUMN TRAIL 9/1 who is one of the known pace-setting types and has the ideal draw in stall 1 so I'm hoping it can lead all the way here and does have good trainer 17% and jockey 22% stats. 

Autumn Trail 9/1 1st (1pt) +9pts (Betfair SP 4.6)

Total: +9pts

NEWCASTLE 4.40 Div I

This is a race where I'm glad there isn't any bends to go round so the draw wont be a vital ingredient in the race, all of my 4 top ratings are using Wolverhampton times, Three Card Trick is 4th top and a possible pacesetter, Phoenix Star is 3rd best should be trying to stay on at the finish as will One One Seven my 2nd top rated but I will be shouldering USTATH 16/1 (EW) with my money and is another possible front runner and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and at the price it has to be given as an each way wager.

Ustath 18/1 7th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts
 

NEWCASTLE 5.10 Div II 

A race with little data to work with and it was one i was going to leave alone until I saw a glimmer in the gloom, Oriental Relation is 3rd top rated and could possibly front run, Roaring Rory is 2nd top rated and will be held up to get the trip if there's a fast early pace but I will have a small each way bet on ROCKLEY POINT 14/1 (EW) who is the other one that could lead and if getting to the front it could do enough to hold on to at least a place so at the price an each way bet. 

Rockley Point 28/1 6th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

NEWCASTLE 5.40

 For a class 6 affair this looks very competitive and there should be a fast early pace in this dash and most of the early paced sorts are drawn high and for my bet I hope they don't cut each others throats trying to lead, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Arcavallo and Slowmo and both are possible pacesetters along with LORD OF THE GLEN 5/2 who is rated 2lbs better and has been in tip top form lately and will be carrying my money. 

Lord Of The Glen 9/2 2nd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt  

KEMPTON 6.40 

This is a very competitive class 4 race but the lack of known front runners does muddy the waters, Street Parade has a time from Wolvhampton that would make it my 2nd top rated but that is a different surface so I'm not sure what it will here the same applies to Wiley Past and Phuket Power, Juan Les Pins is 3rd top on just 2020 times with Saaheq sitting in 2nd top spot, I will be backing STRONG POWER 9/2 this 3yo is my top rated on 2020 times and over all times and usually stays on strongly at the business end of the race.

Strong Power 13/2 Unp (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: +20.5pts 

Sunday, 18 October 2020

6:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (19th October)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00 Div I

Not the greatest of races for a class 4 affair but being split into two divisions does help having slightly smaller fields in each race, there's 3 known front runners so it should be a mad dash for the line, LONGROOM 13/2 will probably do best of the pacesetters but this ones best time which puts it in top spot overall does come from Newcastle (the same surface but without a bend) and its best c/d time from 2019 would see it in the frame so will be carrying some of my money but the trainers 2-59 record at this course is a bit off-putting so it maybe wont be my main bet, both Mutabaahy and Dynamo Walt could go well if bouncing back to form, I will also be backing DREAM HOUSE 5/1 in this race who showed a return to form was on the cards when finishing 3rd last time out and the jockey does have a 18% win ratio on the stables older horses and is only 2lbs off of being the top rated and it being recent form it cannot be ignored. 

Dream House 5/1 3rd (-1pt)
Longroom 13/2 Unp (-1pt)

TOTAL: -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 Div II 

This is definitely the better of the two divisions, I can only see You're Cool as a possible pacesetter and with an uncontested lead could be hard to catch but it usually does its winning in lower class races than this one and Show Me The Bubbly is another that has a decent time to its name but again its wins usually come in lower class affairs but either of them could possibly make the frame, Tathmeen is another that could possibly battle for a place in the frame but hasn't shown much of worth so far this year, my money has to riding on the top weighted REASSURE 9/2 who in this race is taking on inferior beasts and if this hold up type is able to reproduce its best time from Newcastle last year it would win cosily, the trainer has an over 30% win ration here at Wolverhampton and the jockey has an over 20% win ratio for the stable which hopefully means that connections are expecting to get back to winning ways in this race.

Reassure 11/2 8th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: -3pts

Friday, 16 October 2020

7:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (17th October)

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 

A 11 runner dash with 3 known front runners so it should be a true run affair, there is very little on times between The Defiant, Thegreyvtrain and Smokey and any of them could do enough to make the frame, Dark Side Dream is a front runner and from stall 2 it could gain control of the rails and its best time from 2019 would make it my 3rd top rated overall, Solar Park is 2nd best on both 2020 times and overall figures so should go well but top rated on both recent and overall times is A GO GO 9/2 who won last time out and has been found a good chance to follow up here. 

A Go Go 6/1 2nd (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30

This is a strange looking race and I cannot analyse it to a definitive conclusion, Clever Candy Betty's Hope and Betsey Trotter have pieces of form that could see them make the frame if others falter, I am in a quandary about this race, on just 2020 times INEVITABLE OUTCOME 9/2 comes out 2nd top but 4th top overall and YOLO AGAIN 14/1 who is a possible pacesetter is top rated on this years times but only 3rd top overall and I have only 2lbs separating them, then I look at RESTLESS ROSE 5/1 who hasn't any recent c/d form but has a time from Chelmsford (the same surface) that makes it 2nd top overall just 2lbs below POET'S DANCE 17/2 and again this is using its best time from Chelmsford and I cannot see how I can do anything different than to dutch all 4 of them.

Poet's Dance 17/2 2nd (-1pt)
Inevitable Outcome 5/1 4th (-1pt)
Restless Rose 15/2 Unp (-1pt)
Yolo Again 40/1 Unp (-1pt)

Total: -4pts

Total on the day: -5pts
 

Thursday, 15 October 2020

7:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (16th October)

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

This race is quite poor and I cannot find much to say about most of the runners, the only known front runner is Jungle Speed but I'm not sure the surface will suit this one so I will look to lay it (Jungle Speed + War Whisper + Fair Alibi + Ghathanfar), I've only got 5 with recorded speed figures and there's a few lightly raced sorts in the race and the less data I've got to work with the less confident I am on my selections, Fair Alibi and Nubough will need to improve on their best times to win this race which leaves me with 3 to study in more depth, Etikhal is my 3rd top rated and will be running on at the finish but needs to improve a few spots to win the race but it could easily make the frame, my top rated on just 2020 times which is always a bonus is MUTANAASEQ 14/1 (EW) who is a hold up type and at the price has to be worth an each way punt but EPEIUS 7/1 has a faster time from 2019 and if repeating that time would win a little cosily but with so many runners with little form to work with my stakes wont be at full strength.

Mutanaaseq 14/1 Unp (-2pts)
Epeius 10/1 Unp (-1pt)

Lay bets: Ghathanfar -5pts, War Spirit +1pt, Fair Alibi +1pt

Total on the day: -6pts