KEMPTON 5.00
HOLDENHURST 7/2 has won over this c/d but only in a slow time and the main reason is this trip might be a bit too short for it and I would look to lay it if of value. i.e a single figure price, which it is.
SHELLEBEAU 25/1 has run twice over this c/d before but only produced slow times and its recent form is quite poor in its 3 runs this year so I'm not surprised to see it as an outsider.
ALLISEEISNIBRAS 14/1 hasn't run on this course before and it's one run on the AW was a slow run affair but it does have a good time on turf on good to firm going so could be a danger so maybe worth a small each-way wager at the price.
TRUE BELIEF 11/2 won last time out on g/s ground but is 0-5 on the AW and races as though further might be needed to show its true merit and this surface might not suit it, so I might have a small lay at the price.
ALABAMA DREAMING 6/1 this one hasn't form on this surface and is another that might need further before showing any worthwhile form, I couldn't back or lay this one.
LORDSBRIDGE BOY 9/2 is 0-4 on the AW tracks and has 2 slow times to its name over this c/d and may find this trip too far in the make-up of this race of maybe worth a small at the price.
GHEPARDO 11/1 hasn't any recent AW form and is 0-8 on the artificial surfaces but is another that may require further to shine but not value to lay.
OLAUDAH 11/2 hasn't any recent course and distance form and its best time doesn't put it in my top 4 ratings but is ideally drawn in stall 1 for a front running sort so another I couldn't back or lay in this race.
PAPA DELTA 7/1 has a fast time from Chelmsford which would make it top rated but its Lingfield time is quite a lot slower, this is its 1st run here so cannot be discarded from my list of potential winners and is maybe just about value for an each-way bet.
CATHEADANS FURY 14/1 also hasn't any course and distance form but has a fastish time from Chelmsford and looking at its trainer/jockey stats this could be a positive move so at the price it has to be an each-way wager.
FLORA TRISTAN 25/1 has had 2 runs here but only produced slow times, comes out joint 3rd top on a Chelmsford time but hasn't been in form so far this year and is an outsider.
THE LACEMAKER 33/1 is the other joint 3rd top-rated again using a Chelmsford time but again it's not been in good form this year and not expected to change that looking at its price.
SUMMARY: This is a poor race even for a class 6 affair but there is a couple of front runners so it should be a true run race but neither of them is in my top 4 ratings so could set the race up for the finishing types and with one of these front runners being in stall 8 my selection CATHEADAN'S FURY 14/1 coming out of stall 9 could get a good tow into the race and then be in position to have the first attack at the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish.
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.25
POWERFUL DREAM 11/4 has to be considered as a possible winner after winning its last race with a time that would make it my 2nd top-rated on 2019 times its best from 2018 was 5lb higher and would move it to 2nd spot overall.
RASPBERRY 20/1 this 3-year-old hasn't any form over this distance on this surface but its Newcastle time from this year would make it top on 2019 times and 3rd best overall but it doesn't look like they are expecting it repeat that here.
BELLEVARDE 20/1 has a reasonable time from 2018 where it stayed on at the finish which would make 4th overall but it's on a losing run of 10 races and isn't fancied here.
ANGEL FORCE 11/2 is quite versatile when it comes to its racing tactics but hasn't run on the AW before and it's not been in very good form this year and the price looks a bit too short in my opinion and I would look to lay it at the price.
FAIRY FAST 10/1 this 3-year-old is hard to weigh up, it's only got slow time over this c/d but does stay on so maybe further would help, its had 8 runs on the AW tracks without winning but has been placed in 5 of those races so could make an each-way bet here at the price
PRECIOUS PLUM 5/1 has won over this c/d and has been known to lead before but its slow times don't inspire confidence, it's not shown much timewise since 2016 and at the price I would look to take it on with a lay bet.
COUNTRY ROSE 12/1 is a versatile type and that can include leading but hasn't any form on this surface, I've gone into its turf times and if capable of repeating its best then it could win this race so at the price it may be worth doing each way.
SOCIETY STAR 12/1 this one has also been known to lead before but I'm not sure this surface suits it and has only slow times over c/d so I'm doubting it can/will lead here and not for me in this race.
COMPTON POPPY 12/1 hasn't any recent form on the AW but going back to its best 2018 time it takes the top spot on my figures so it has to be considered as a potential winner so at the price it could be an each-way wager.
AQUADABRA 9/2 has won over this course and distance before but only in a slow run affair so not one I would back in this race especially as its now upped to class 5 races so I would lay it.
MISS GARGAR 10/1 this one hasn't any course and distance form and tries to stay on at the finish indicating a longer trip might suit it better.
SUMMARY: I think the winner will come from one of four horses, Powerful Dream, Raspberry, Country Rose and Compton Poppy but which one I'm not completely sure but I think I will be probably dutching all 4 of them in this race which isn't really helpful but I do have my reasoning, RASPBERRY 20/1 is my top-rated for this year so has to be in the mix although it doesn't look very well fancied, POWERFUL DREAM 11/4 is 2nd top on both this year and overall times but the price is a bit short in my opinion, COMPTON POPPY 12/1 is well weighted on its best 2018 which makes it top-rated and has excuses having not run on the AW recently so could be a nice each-way punt, COUNTRY ROSE 12/1 could lead and its best time on turf would see it win comfortably but I can't be confident with it being its first-ever run on the AW surfaces but it could be worth doing each way, too many various alternatives to be confident outside of the 4 selections and my stakes won't be at full strength.
Powerful Dream 11/4 1st + EX £41.90
Compton Poppy 18/1 2nd
Raspberry 25/1 7th
Country Rose 25/1 9th
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.25
Spirited Guest 10/3 won last time out and could go well again here but isn't well drawn in the make-up of this race
SHOW ME THE BUBBLY 5/1 likes to track the leaders and could get a good tow into the race from stall 4
Awsaaf 7/1 my 3rd top-rated should be running on at the finish here and is perhaps an each-way bet in this race
Major Blue 16/1 an outsider here and would need to improve to win this race but it only 3 years old so could still improve
The Defiant 7/1 has only slow times over this course and distance, it should be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late here
SUPERSEDED 9/1 not usually well drawn in stall 9 for a front running type but in the make-up of this race it could be ok and if allowed to dictate it could be dangerous
Thegreyvtrain 13/2 is another possible pacesetter and coming out of stall 5 but its final times have been relatively slow
Ty Rock Brandy 6/1 has only slow times recently and I have to go back to 2017 to find a decent time even that wouldn't be quite good enough to win this race
Davids Beauty 16/1 the 3rd possible frontrunner but has only slow times to show over this course and distance and on a losing run of 13.
Dodgy Bob 25/1 this ones 0-18 on the AW tracks and a losing run of 28 and may need further to show its merit.
Teepee Time 12/1 has only a slow time over this course and distance even when it won and this doesn't look its favourite surface.
SUMMARY: This 5 furlong dash is quite intriguing, theres 3 front running sorts in the race so it should be a true run affair, there are a few I can discount from my list of potential winners, SUPERSEDED 9/1 is a possible frontrunner housed in stall 9 with 2 other possible leaders housed on its inside it might need a degree of luck, I will have to have some money on it just incase it was allowed to dictate its own pace and then kick off the bend, Spirited Guest is the other 3rd top rated horse but this ones apprentice moves it into 2nd top spot, it won last time out so is in good heart and should go well again here if getting a clear run from stall 8 where its drawn between 2 fast starters, my original 2nd top rated is Awsaaf who usually runs on at the finish over the minimum trip, my original top rated is the 3 year old SHOW ME THE BUBBLY 5/1 who is being ridden by a good 7lb claiming apprentice which moves it further clear and will be carrying most of my money but I will have to back them both.
NEWCASTLE 6:30
This is a very competitive race where I've 4 main contenders and two more that could go well. I Know How who won last time out could go well despite this course not looking to be its favourite surface, Pinarella is one of four in this race that looks natural front running types and could go well from stall 10 on this straight course, Mr Wagyu has only run once before on the AW tracks but it was over this course and distance but didn't show much but does have a fast time on good to firm ground on turf so could be dangerous, Mutabaahy would need to improve on its best 2018 time to win this race but has a time from 2017 that would make it my 2nd top-rated, I will be splitting my stake between AVENUE OF STARS 10/1 and PEACHEY CARNEHAN 6/1 the former likes to track the leaders while the latter is a front running type and if it does get to the front could prove hard to catch, I will back them both but my stakes will be tilted in favour of the latter hoping it can lead all the way here.
Peachey Carnehan 10/1 2nd
Avenue Of Stars 12/1 Unp
SOUTHWELL 5.10
This 5 furlong dash on the straight course here looks fairly competitive if they all run to their best, the draw makes virtually no difference and Red Invader has stall 1, it's my 4th top-rated and a possible pacesetter, in 3rd spot I've got Mininggold who usually likes to track the leaders but it across the other side of the course in stall 11 which might hinder its cause, my 2nd top-rated is Red Stripes another possible pacesetter and housed in stall 5 for this race, so the 2 Reds could battle for the early lead but I do have SANDRIDGE LAD 15/2 rated higher and this one also likes to track the leaders so is well housed in stall 4 in the make-up of this race, it will then try to stay on the stronger at the finish and will be carrying my money.
Sandridge 9/1 4th
KEMPTON 7.30
A bit of a mixed bag with differing figures from the 3 courses that use this surface but I hope I've got it analysed correctly, Fantastic Flyer, Busby, Top Boy, Secret Potion and Broughtons Flare all have recorded times that would or could see them battling for the honours in this race and they could be staying on at the finish to try and catch my selection LIGHTNING CHARLIE 9/1 who is joint 2nd top-rated on 2019 times, also joint top-rated using its best 2018 time and an even better speed figure recorded at Chelmsford on this surface, it also looks the only natural frontrunner in the race and if allowed to dictate from the front it ought to prove very hard to catch and the booked jockey has a respectable 16% win rate when riding for this stable, the each-way stats for both the trainer and the jockey are over 40% so if a big enough price it ought to pay dividends to back it each way.
Lightning Charlie
KEMPTON 6.40
Only 6 runners with 1 natural front running type plus 1 that has been known to lead if nothing else wants to and even then there's only 2 that I don't think can win this race, Tropics is 2nd top rated on c/d times from 2018 but only 1lb behind DANZAN 10/1 who looks the most likely pacesetter in this race and with an easy lead this one could go really well, Unabated is rated 2lbs better but that's using its best time from Chelmsford which is the same surface as here but top-rated using its Chelmsford time is ROYAL BIRTH 11/4 but this ones best time here is quite a few pounds lower, so as you can see the waters are fairly muddy and my stakes will not be at full strength and the betting may be the final decider on what I do with this race and that may even be leaving it alone altogether.
Royal Birth 11/2 2nd
Danzan 10/1 4th
NEWCASTLE 7.25
This class 4 race looks good for the grade with 3 known frontrunners in the field of 14, I will stick with my top 4 ratings, Bowson Fred is 4th top but is on a long losing run of 39, this frontrunner could make the frame but not one I could back to win, Archimedes is my 3rd top-rated and I've given this as a selection twice fairly recently and it won both times, its another frontrunner and if allowed an easy lead it could go very well again here, my 2nd top-rated is Henley who races as though further would suit it better but with a fast early pace its stamina could come into effect but my top rated is TATHMEEN 10/1 who is another that stays on strongly at the end of the race and with the make-up of this race it could play into its hands or hooves in this case.
Tathmeen 10/1 8th
NEWCASTLE 7.00
A poor class 6 race and only 5 of the 14 have recorded times, The Grey Zeberdee is a possible pacesetter is 5th on my figures, Willow Brook is 4th best on its best 2018 time, another possible frontrunner Swiss Connection comes out 3rd top and in 2nd spot I've got Gleaming Arch who won last time out and should go well here but in top spot I've got LORD OF THE GLEN 16/1 who is one of the known frontrunners and has been found a chance to get back to winning ways and at the price available it has to be given as an each-way wager.
Lord Of The Glen 16/1 6th
NEWCASTLE 8.30
This stakes race has only 3 horses with times fast enough to register on my figures, Deeds Not Words is my 3rd top-rated but it is using its best time which was recorded on this surface at Wolverhampton, just 1lb higher in 2nd spot is Picks Pinta who stays on strongly at the finish at this distance but I'm hoping ROCKLEY POINT 15/2 can lead all the way here and the booked jockey has a 17% win ratio for this stable which I hope is a good sign, it is quite versatile when it comes to racing tactics so it doesn't have to lead but there doesn't look to be much early pace in the race.
Rockley Point 15/2 4th
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30
Nothing special for a class 3 race, Motagally 11/4 is a 3-year-old who won last time on g/f going on the turf but that was a slow run affair and theres a few known frontrunners in this race so it might not be run to suit it and at the price I would probably lay it, Power Link 7/2 has recorded a fast time at Kempton but im not sure this surface will suit this one so another one that I would probably lay, Walk On Walter 14/1hasnt any recent course form but its best from 2018 would make it my 3rd top rated but being a frontrunner it could do enough to make the frame and it may be worth an each-way punt, the 2 stablemates, Intisaab6/1 and Watchable 14/1 are of interest, the topweight Intisaab would be the one I would back on my figures but the good apprentice is 0-5 for this stable but that might just be coincidence but the jockey on Watchable has a 3-9 record for the stable, if they are both triers I would back the former as it is dropped in class although its on a losing run of 14 races,, is the trainer trying to muddy the waters with the jockey bookings? I don't know, if they are only going to try with the latter i think they may come unstuck as in a fast run race this one can struggle to stay the trip, which is a dilemma I cannot solve as I know nothing of their plans for this race, so the safest option is for me to back REFLEKTOR 5/1 who is my top rated and its from a time recorded this year, this one is being ridden by an apprentice, a good apprentice who has only had one ride for the stable before this race, so any stakes will be kept in check unless the betting shows me otherwise.
Reflektor 11/1 8th
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00
It does annoy me when a class 4 race can only attract 6 runners, I guess it just shows how many poor horses are in training when they can get a full complement of 14 runners in the lower standard races, this is a strange looking race where there's 4 runners that could be capable of doing better, especially Betsey Trotter who looks a live danger to my plans in this race, Alicia Darcy, Lapidary and Chitra have given an indication that they might perform better over further despite the former being a c/d winner and the other 2 having won last time out, that leaves me with Turanga Leela one of 3 in the race that has been known to lead as my 2nd top-rated and my top rated horse SUNDIATA 4/1 and this 3-year-old will be looking to stay on strongly to catch the leaders nearing the finish but my stakes will not be anywhere near full strength in this race with so many potential hidden dangers amongst the opposition.
Sundiata 8/1 2nd
SOUTHWELL 5.25
REQUITED 2/1 this one is my top rated and also has decent trainer stats to back up its case, it's usually held up for a run and there looks as though it should be a race run to suit its style.
FAIRY FAST 9/2 hasn't run on this surface before, it's also 0-7 on the AW tracks but has been placed in 5 of those 7 races so could make an each-way bet if a big price, which I doubt but at the price I would lay the win part.
NEWSTEAD ABBEY is one of the possible pacemakers in this race and stall 3 isn't too bad a draw plus it comes out 4th top on my own unique speed figures so could go well enough to make the frame if others falter.
SENORITA GRANDE 4/1 another that hasn't raced here before but has form with some cut in the ground on turf to suggest it could take to this surface so it could go well.
MURQAAB hasn't been placed from 4 runs on the AW tracks but none of them were at this course and it has won at this distance with cut in the ground so could go well here.
ESSENZA 7/1 has finished 2nd over this course and distance before but that was in a slow run affair so could be dangerous to ignore but it looks as though further would suit it better.
BEE MACHINE 10/1 this one also hasn't any form on this surface and everything points to it wanting further so not for me in this race and if it shortens to a single figure price I would lay it.
ALWAYS AMAZING 11/2 usually likes to track the leaders and could be ok from stall 5 to sit just behind the pace ready to pounce and could make the frame.
THESPINNINGWHEEL this is its handicap debut after 3 runs, it hasn't shown much at all in its races so far and I think it might need further to show its worth.
THE GINGERBREADMAN I'm not convinced this is its best surface but it does have a c/d time that would make it 2nd best at this low in the weights and its another that likes to track the pacesetters.
CHAMPAGNE MONDAYS this one has won over this c/d but it was a very slow run affair but it is a possible frontrunner and stall 1 is ideal but whether it's fast enough in the early stages to lead or not has to be seen.
SUMMARY: This being the only sprint for me to analyse I thought I would go into more depth and suggest other ways than trying to find the winner to make a profit from the race and Fairy Fast is one of them it seems to run good time after time without winning and makes the frame a lot of the time so its one to bet for a place only on a betting exchange and maybe lay the win part, both Essenza and Bee Machine might need further so I would look to lay them, the question is how big a price are you willing to lay I personally dont lay at over 10/1 because all of my work is done looking at horses quietly fancied in the betting and I would suggest you should do the same if laying a horse solely on my say so ( please do a little research yourself, I dont everything right every time) my money in this race will be riding on the topweighted REQUITED 2/1 who I suspect will be the favourite or very close to the fore of the betting, it is usually held up for a late run and with the early pace drawn either side of its stall 2 draw it could get a good tow into the race and then stay on the stronger at the finish the trainer does reasonably well at this course and it has been found an opportunity to get back to winning ways, im not happy with the price but I cannot recommend anything to back against it.
Requited 2/1 1st
LINGFIELD 4.20
This class 6 race looks very good for the class and there's 3 known frontrunners in the field so it should be a fast run 5 furlong dash, 2 of the possible pacesetters are ASK THE GURU 14/1 and SANDFRANKSKIPSGO 14/1 who both have times that could win the race but they are also not very consistent but ignore them at your peril as they could bounce back to form without warning and the 3rd possible pacesetter is BROGAN'S BAY 3/1 and this one 2nd top-rated on 2019 times, so it looks like the race will be won from the front and I will have to go with dutching the 3 of them but myabe tilting in favour of the more consistent Brogans Bay.
Sandfrankskipsgo 25/1 1st
Ask The Guru 14/1 8th
Brogan's Bay 3/1 9th
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.15
A lot of the 11 runners in this race have been in good form which makes it hard to eliminate many if any and there's not really much data to work with so I will have to concentrate on my top pair of ratings, ARCHIMEDES 15/2 is my 2nd top-rated on its best time from Newcastle recorded this year so could be hard to catch for most of these but I do have LANDING NIGHT 25/1 rated higher but this ones best time was recorded in 2018 but it also has a faster time this year at Newcastle, so I will back them both to cover the angles but maybe slightly in favour of my highest-rated horse.
Landing Night 10/1 4th
Archimedes 15/2 8th
CHELMSFORD 8.00
I can only see one horse who has led before so it might not be a fast run affair but it is my 2nd top-rated so DREAMBOAT ANNIE 50/1 could prove hard to catch for most of these and at the price it as to be an each-way wager, there's only 1lb between Gottardo my 4th top-rated and Sir Hector in 3rd spot, my top rated but only by 1lb is DESERT FOX 4/1 who usually stays on well at the finish, so I will go with backing the 2 horses to cover the angles.
Dreamboat Annie 50/1 8th
Desert Fox 4/1 2nd
CHELMSFORD 8.30
This looks a poor race but I guess that's to be expected for a class 7 affair and to be honest I cannot narrow it down to just 1 selection, Such Promise 20/1 is a possible pacesetter but is still a maiden after 11 runs and has only one 3rd place finish in those 11 races, Good Business 20/1 will be running on at the finish and its best time from 2018 would make it my top-rated, Broughton Excels 7/4 won last time out and is 2nd top-rated on 2019 times over this c/d, top-rated on 2019 times is Ar Saiorse 50/1 who can sometimes struggle to stay 6 furlongs if there's a fast early pace so might be ok here, i will probably dutch all 4 of them but my stakes wont be at full strength but there won't be much value when the favourite is so short.
