REDCAR 3.40 (7.7)
I can only find ETIKAAL in this race that looks a natural front-runner and on a 2017 time it comes out 2nd top rated and if allowed an easy lead it could be hard to catch, SPIRIT OF WEDZA 5/1 is 3rd best on this years times but has a time from 2017 at Doncaster which would make it top rated so has to have a chance to win here but my top rated on 2018 times is EXTRASOLAR 10/3 who recorded its best at Carlisle, I cannot confidently narrow it down any further and I will look to dutch the 3 of them.
YARMOUTH 3.50 (7.4)
This looks a good affair for a class 5 race with just 2 that I can discard confidently from having any chance of winning the race, Monks Stand should be staying on at the finish and comes out 4th best on my figures, in 3rd top spot is Lalania a 3 year old who is one of only 2 known front-runners in the race so could go close, top weight Danecase comes out 2nd best but that's on a 2017 time so would need to spring back to form to be competitive here but my top rated is KRAKA 9/1 another 3 year old that likes to front run and the jockey booking looks as though they are expecting a big run here.
YARMOUTH 4.50
I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in the 3-year-old Queen Of Desire and ARZAAK 9/1 but this one would be top rating is able to reproduce its 2017 time so could be dangerous, WIFF WAFF 9/1 the bottom weight is another 3 year old that enters calculations as my 2nd top rated with a time recorded over this course and distance, in top spot is EQUIMOU 13/2 who likes this type of track having done it best at Haydock and the trainer has a decent 17% win rate at this course, sorry to say another race I cannot narrow down to any less than 3 and I will back them all to show a profit whichever one does the business.
BRIGHTON 4.10 (8.1)
I hope all 8 runs if my selection is each way price, Harry Beau and Andalusite are 2 of 3 that could be the pacesetters in the race and the latter may prefer further so would want to make the race a test of stamina, Arcanista 10/3 is in good form but this step up in class may find it out, it could still make the frame but there's not much value at the price, Wiley Post a hold up type and Crystal Deauville the other possible pacesetter, are 3rd joint top rated, the selection is the horse at the top of the handicap, BERNIES BOY 14/1, it will hope to get a good early position and then stay on strongly at the finish as it always stays on strongly as though it could get further so this race could be run to suit it and the apprentice jockey booking looks a positive move as she has a 16% win rate for the stable and the price will allow me to back it each way.
BRIGHTON 5.40
This 5 furlong dash has got 4 known pacesetters in the race and my top 3 are all front-runners, Hurricane Alert is weighted to be my 3rd top rated from a time recorded at Yarmouth last year, BROADHAVEN HONEY 5/1 is my 2nd top rated but that is on time from Chepstow this year so is in form and the apprentices 3lb claim draws it level top, this is the trainers first foray to this course in the last 5 years and I can see why he's using the apprentice to take some weight off at the top of the weights but the apprentice is 0-5 so I'm not quite sure what to expect, my original top rated is ASK THE GURU 9/1 who comes out top using a time from Bath in 2017 but its best time from this year was recorded over this course and distance would only put it in 3rd top spot so I don't really have much choice other than to back them both to make a profit whichever one wins.
BATH 3.45 (9.2)
This is a tricky 10 runner race where I have positives against 7 of them leaving me with my top 3, Union Rose is 3rd best using times from 2018 but would be top rated on 2017 times but it would need to bounce back to form against in form opponents, Kasbah is 2nd top rated using this years times but seems to be in the grip of the handicapper as it keeps running quite well so hasn't been dropped much on official figures, my top spot is occupied by NIBRAS AGAIN 12/1 who recorded a fast time when winning at Haydock 2 runs ago, its last run on softish going can be ignored and back on g/f ground has a chance to win again and its a big enough price for me to back each way.
Nibras Again 12/1 1st + EX £57.40
CHESTER 3.55 (8.2)
Not my favourite track to have a bet at and stakes will be kept fairly low, we all know a low draw is favoured here and front-runners do well so horses that don't normally front run come here and change their tactics to suit the course which makes analysis many times harder than usual. Private matter is a front-runner and drawn 1 but may not want firm in the going description, GINBAR 3/1 is my joint 2nd top rated, a front-running type and in stall 2 so could go very well here off bottom weight, Confessional is the other joint 2nd top and can find this distance a bit too far but maybe not on this turning course where they never really get into top gear until in the short home straight, KING ROBERT 10/1 is top rated drawn in stall 4 so could get a good position just behind the leaders but its another that doesn't like really fast ground, I will back the 2 highlighted horses to cover both angles in the race.
King Robert 10/1 4th
Ginbar 3/1 5th
LINGFIELD 4.15
A complicated little race for just 8 runners and again my stakes will be on the low side, apart from the topweight nothing else has been known to lead but I'm not sure it can pinch this race even with a crafty ride but it is a 3-year-old so it cannot be discarded easily, Kath's Lustre is 4th top and another 3 year old, Seprani is 3rd top rated so could make the frame, Rose Berry is 2nd best and a hold up type but does struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace so it could go well in the make-up of this race but top spot is DIAMOND LADY 8/1 who likes to track the leaders and could get a good early position from stall 2 and then stay on the stronger at the finish.
Diamond Lady 8/1 6th
MUSSELBURGH 6.55 (7.6)
This must be a poor race when I worked out what comes out top rated, inconsistency is a major problem at this level on grass, so again stakes are on the low side, 8 of the runners have had 10 or more runs without winning which is always a bit off-putting, there's not much early pace in the race, joint 3rd top are Griffin Street and Thornaby Princess and both like to track the leaders, Miss Dd prefers the same tactics but all 3 of them have not won for quite a while now which leaves the top-rated TWENTYSVNTHLANCERS 7/1 who may not want the going to be too fast and is in form as it won last time out.
Twentysvnthlancers 7/1 8th
SANDOWN 2.50 (7.7)
The only sprint of the day so im praying the going is at least good which looks unlikely but im always the optimist, theres a few in the race which I would look to lay if the going is good or faster, then a couple im not quite sure what to make of, Compas Scoobie looks to be in the grip of the handicapper and still runs some decent races so doesnt drop down in weight very quickly, Wotadoll comes out 3rd top and has finished 2nd on its last 3 runs all on differing surfaces, so maybe always the bridesmaid and never the bride, in 2nd spot ive got Ocelot who has a losing run of 9 races and its still not dropped to the same level yet but ought to run a good race, my toprated is SECRET AGENT 12/1 who comes out top on a speed figure derived from Salisbury last year when it was rated 65, it hasnt reached that level since then but despite winning 2 runs ago it can still race off 65 and in this race its the only known front runner and also drawn in stall 1 which is the favoured side but with 9 runners that might not matter too much but if the selection gets to the lead and sets its own pace it could feasibly lead from start to finish in this race and the trainer has a fine 19% win rate with all his horses at this course in the last 5 years but with his older horse he has a win record of 4-16 and hopefully he can add to that tally here.
PS: I also do post some lays most days on the Eric Winner Facebook Page, please take a look if you lay on the exchanges, I found a method which made so much sense and I amended it to find more qualifiers without losing the quality and it's making big big profits with my special stakes formula, if your interested go take a look, they are all free at the moment so fill your boots while you can.
Secret Agent 12/1 8th
I'm travelling back home to so won't have time to update the blog. However, you can find the latest post on Eric Winner Facebook Page.
KEMPTON 5.45
GLORY OF PARIS should be staying on strongly at the finish here and is top rated on c/d times but only because its the only one with a recorded time here, its time is good for the class of race and there's only one better time in the race, its best time from Chelmsford would put it in 2nd top spot so should be thereabouts at the finish.
ACRUX it hasn't a time from this c/d so not completely sure what to expect but looking through the clues it looks as though a longer distance may be needed for it to show its best BIG BRAVE BOB hasn't any form on this surface but with a bit of digging I'm thinking this surface might not suit its running style and slower going would be better.
TIGERWOLF another with no c/d form and at Wolverhampton its time over this distance was on the slow side of things and it's also another I'm not sure will take to this surface.
ASSASSINATE has just one run over this c/d which was quite poor and it appears a much better horse back at 5 furlongs so may not find this race run to suit its needs with 2 in the race that have been known to lead.
AGUEROO this one hasn't any course form to work with but its best time from Chelmsford puts it at the top of my list of figures and it can be held up or track the leaders so can be effective whichever tactics are deployed by others.
SPIN TOP has 1 slow run over this c/d and the reason may be because it doesn't really stay the sixth furlong and may struggle here if there's a decent early pace.
ONEFOOTINPARADISE again hasn't any form over this c/d and in this case it looks as though further would suit it better and could find itself outpaced in the early stages here. VIBES hasn't made the frame in five attempts on an all-weather surface and that includes 2 attempts over this c/d and looking as though a longer trip would help.
MAD ENDEAVOUR may prefer a slower surface and a shorter trip, then add on the trainers poor 1-33 win record at this track makes it feel as it may struggle here.
OCEAN TEMPTRESS not in the frame in 6 all-weather runs and further may suit it better, either that or a slower surface but it could be one that likes to lead, stall 10 isn't ideal but may be ok with only 1 other front-runner in the field.
SUMMARY: The 2 that have led before have negatives against their names, one due to the surface which leaves Vibes as the possible pacesetter, as it looks as though further would suit it better it may try to use its stamina from the front to win and has a good jockey booking to carry it out so is a danger and I can't discard it easily but I will stick with the proven and go with 2 selections, GLORY OF PARIS 5/1 is top on c/d times and 2nd top on all figures on this surface, AGUEROOO 7/2 is top using Chelmsford times and this is its 1st run at this course, if taking to the track it must have a good chance of winning but I'm not confident enough to narrow it down any further.
SALISBURY 4.00 (8.2)
With 14 runners and 4 that could lead it should be a true run race and my top 3 are all possible leaders, Captain Ryan can do fast times but in lower class races but could make the frame but would also need to bounce back to form, Secret Agent is 3rd top rated and in stall 8 and its best time, which was from 2017, was at this c/d but hasn't reached the same level so far this year, Broadhaven Honey is 2nd top rated but the outside draw in stall 14 isn't ideal, while my top-rated selection UNION ROSE 14/1 has got the plum draw in stall 1, so hopefully it can get to the front and get control against the rails and this is a drop in class to what it was running last year and hopefully it can show its class here and get back to winning ways luckily the price will permit me to have a small each way bet.
Abandoned
CATTERICK 4.40 (7.7)
I can split this 12 runner race into 2 halves with 6 I can discard with negatives against their name, Scenery is well weighted on its best time and could make the frame here and should be staying on at the finish but maybe too late, topweight Meshardal is my 2nd top rated and it likes to track the pace so could be prominent all the way but I've got STRAIGHTOTHEPOINT 10/1 as my top rating and if this front-running sort gets to the lead it could prove very hard to catch and has decent trainer/jockey stats so I will be going with each way investment at the double figure price.
Straightothepoint 10/1 4th
CATTERICK 5.10
It doesn't happen very often but out of 14 runners I've got 3 with the same figure with a bit of a gap back to my 4th best, HIGHLY FOCUSSED 11/1 is top rated but needs g/f ground to show its best and usually likes to track the leaders and has the stall 1 draw and could sit on the rail just behind the pacesetters waiting to pounce late on, SEAMSTER 7/1 has the same sort of racing tactics and its in stall 9 and may need a bit of luck in the early stages to get a clear run to get into a good position from which to stay on at the finish, COMPTON RIVER 25/1 is my 3rd co-top rated and this one can lead to contest the lead from the off, stall 11 isn't ideal but if getting to the front it could be hard to catch but I will have to go with backing all 3 selections to cover the angles and with each bets if the prices permit.
Seamster 12/1 3rd
Compton River 16/1 4th
Highly Focused 11/1 6th
BRIGHTON 2.00
There's just Compton Abbey known to pace set and could be dangerous if allowed to set its own slower pace and then try to pinch the race from the front, Whitecrest my 3rd top rated likes to have a fast pace to aim at so this race may not be run to suit it, Arcanista can be held up or track the leader and comes out 2nd top rated but the selection is DUSTY 7/1 a 3-year-old who, despite being the topweight, still comes out as my top rated and the trainer has employed a good 3lb claiming apprentice to help their cause.
Dusty 7/1 3rd
CHELMSFORD 6.45
Another 7 runner race but this time there's 4 that have been known to lead before and my top 3 ratings are in the 4 pacesetters, Captain Jameson is a 3 year old that could be a bit of a hidden danger but I will stick with the proven, I've got Merhoob(86) as my 3rd top rated while *DUBAI ONE (88) 5/1 starts off as my 2nd top rated but the 3lb apprentices claim moves it to (91) and top spot, the trainer has a good 34% win rate at this course and the jockey is 1-3 for this stable so it all points to connections expecting a big run here so has to be the selection, in top spot originally was Bosham(89) and this ones trainer has a 22% win ratio here and the jockey wins 14% of his rides for the stable but I will as usual go with my top rated as the selection.
* NR
ASCOT 4.30 (8.6)
My 4th top rated is Kimifive and 3rd top rated is Mujassam, both like to track the leaders and then try to stay on the stronger at the finish so either or both could make the frame with a clear run, I've got Fille De Reve as my 2nd top rated and this one can be held up for a late run or track the leaders and then try to stay on strongly at the finish but I'm hoping my top rated UPSTAGING 12/1 who is very versatile when it comes to racing tactics, can lead here as there's very little known pacesetting types in the field, and if getting to the front where it could prove very hard to catch but it doesn't want the going to be too fast so the predicted forecast should be fine for it to show its best.
Upstaging 16/1 7th
ASCOT 5.05 (8.6)
Shamshon is well weighted on its best but maybe its not up to class 3 racing so it could go well but I doubt it can win but never say never, Open Wide comes out 3rd top rated despite being the topweight and can be held up or track the leaders which are usually the same tactics deployed by Equimou who is my 2nd top rated but in the make-up of this race I think WASEEM FARIS 16/1 can either lead or at least contest the lead and then prove hard to catch and the 3lb the apprentice claims can help their cause and he's ridden 2 winners from just 5 rides so the booking looks a positive move.
Waseem Faris 16/1 7th
HAYDOCK 3.00 (8.4)
There's only Ower Fly known as a front-runner but its outside my top 4 rated and may not want the going to be too fast, Eastern Impact is 3rd top using a Newmarket time from this year, I've only got 1lb between *HIGHLAND ACCLAIM 10/1 and CONFESSIONAL 16/1 neither have exceptional trainer/jockey stats but nothing too negative either, the latter just stays this trip on easier level type of courses and without too much pace here it could go well but if it is run faster than I think then it could go the to former selection and I will back them both each way but my stakes won't be at full strength.
Confessional 16/1 2nd
* NR
HAYDOCK 3.35
There's a possible 5 pacesetters in this race and 3 of my top 4 are all possible leaders, I've got joint 3rd top horses in Foxy Forever and Signore Piccolo and both could try to lead, the bottom weight LYDIATE LADY 16/1 comes out 2nd best and off this lightweight could be the one to prosper if the leaders go off too fast and fade, I've got QUANTUM DOT 9/1 as top rated and this one has won its last 2 races and this is a step up in class and has merited the chance to move up in class and I will back them both each way to cover both angles.
Lydiate Lady 16/1 5th
Quantum Dot 25/1 8th
MUSSELBURGH 5.00 (7.6)
I've only got Suwaan marked down as a front-runner but its only 5th top on my figures but could do better if allowed to dictate its own pace, Mable Lee is well weighted and comes out 3rd top, I tipped up Canford Bay when it won last time out and it comes out 2nd best in this race and could win if the selection doesn't do the business but I will be backing the 3-year-old MEERPAT 4/1 who recorded a fast pace at Haydock and if taking this undulating course in its stride it could find itself back in the winners circle, there's good trainer/jockey stats in its favour as well hopefully all pointing to it running a big race here.
Meerpat 6/1 4th
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