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Saturday, 23 January 2021

4:10 Lingfield Racing Tips (24th January)

4:10 Lingfield 

ICE AGE hasn't shown much lately and its only AW in came over 7 furlongs so should be staying on at the finish if fit but maybe too late to win the race.

JACKSTAR hasn't any distance form to its name and is another that may be better when racing over further but its best Wolverhampton time would make it 3rd top overall. 

SPRING ROMANCE hasn't any recent c/d form to its name and its best time from 2019 wouldn't be good enough to make the frame if others do their best.

HURCLE has only a slow c/d time to its name despite winning over this c/d so would need to improve time wise to get involved in the finish here. 

CHALMANIC it hasn't made the frame its only 2 AW runs and races as though it will be a better prospect when tried over further.

DAZZLING DES has a c/d time from 2020 that makes it my top rated on recent c/d times and 2nd overall so could go well here but the jockey booking doesn't look a positive move so maybe its getting fit for a future target. 

GARTH ROCKETT has a good record of 2 wins and a place from just 3 c/d runs but its best time from them is a bit below what might be required to win this race. 

STORM OVER hasn't any form over this c/d but it has done well at Chemsford which is a very similar type of course and its best time from there would make it top rated here, this is the trainers first runner here and its the jockeys 1st ride for the stable.

POWER OVER ME won well last time out but the time was only good enough for 2nd top spot on recent c/d times and 4th top overall but it is an improving sort so could go well but i doubt it will be an each way price. 

GREY GALLEON ran a decent race when finishing 2nd last time out at Kempton, its only c/d run resulted in a slow time plus its still a maiden after 14 runs. 

SUMMARY: If Power Over Me doesn't lead, it didn't when it won last time out but has done so in the past, i haven't a clue what will set the pace, if it does lead I'm not sure it will hold on, I will lay (Grey Galleon) as long as its a single figure price, Dazzling Des ought to run a decent race if in the mood but I will be putting my pennies on STORM OVER 7/1 hoping it can repeat its best time from Chelmsford which would see it winning a shade cosily.

Friday, 22 January 2021

6:40 Newcastle Racing Tips (23rd January)

NEWCASTLE 6.40 

I can see a few that have virtually (never say never) no chance of winning but they are all big priced outsiders, Billy Dylan is my 4th top rated and usually races in the middle of the pack before staying on and it might make the frame but the jockeys record is 0-3 for the stable, Rockley Point 3/1 my 3rd top rated could be the one to set the pace and could easily do enough to make the frame but obviously isn't an each way price, 2nd top rated is Atrafan 5/1 who is one from one over this c/d and could make the frame but again not an each way price but I'm hoping it wont double its c/d winning tally, my money will be riding on the top weight GIGI'S BEACH 7/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely at the finish and its trainer has a 21% win ratio at this course. 

Gigi's Beach 7/1 2nd (-1pt) 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 7.10 

Not a great race for a class 4 affair and I cannot see a front running sort among them, Tukhoom has a time from Wolverhampton that would make it 3rd top overall and usually runs on at the finish so this race might not be run to suit it, Spartan Fighter is 2nd top rated on recent (2020/21) times but that is only good enough for 4th spot overall, Athollblair boy has a time from 2019 that would put it in 2nd spot overall but it hasn't shown much lately so I would like to see a sign of something better before I could back it but it wouldn't be the first winner to spring back to form without warning but I will be putting my trust and money in LUCKY LODGE 10/1 (EW) who is top rated, it ran Thursday where it led before fading to finish 4th but that isn't its preferred style of running it usually tracks the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish so maybe needed the run to get it spot on for this race and at the double figure price it has to be done each way.

Lucky Lodge 10/1 6th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

Total on the day: -3pts

Thursday, 21 January 2021

2:35 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets (22nd January)

LINGFIELD 2.35 

Only 5 runners in this class 2 race, shame on trainers/owners, I think Fizzy Feet might set the pace but I doubt it can hold on and set it up for something coming from off the pace, I have joint top rated horses in ABERAMA GOLD 10/3 and BRIAN THE SNAIL 3/1 who both like to stay on strongly at the finish and it might come down to which one gets the clearest run at the right time and i will be backing them both as I cannot find anyway of splitting them. 

Brian The Snail 7/2 2nd (-1pt) 
Aberama Gold 3/1 4th (-1pt)

Total -2pts

LINGFIELD 3.10 

A class 6 race with 10 runners, that's better, there's 3 known front runners in the field, firstly I will look to lay (King Robert) who is a better prospect when racing over a longer distance, Moveonup from stall 3 could grab the rails but i think he will have to battle with Big Time Maybe for supremacy but there is only 4lbs between them, my 3rd top rated is Mercers ho has 3 c/d wins to its name but it is drawn between 2 fast starters in stalls 6 and 8 so mighty not get a trouble free run in the early stages, I've only got 2lbs between my top 2 rated horses and I will go with backing them both, COMEATCHOO 9/1 is top rated and from stall 9 it could follow the horse drawn on it inside and get a good early position and would have every chance if things go to plan but my other selection is INDIAN PURSUIT 9/1 this one likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and from stall 1 it should be able to get a good position just behind the leaders but on the rails and then stay on in the home straight. 

Indian Pursuit 9/1 2nd (-1pt)
Comeatchoo 14/1 7th (-1pt)

Total -2pts

CHELMSFORD 6.15 

Another class 2 race with a poor turnout of just 6 runners for the 12k prize money, there is a couple of known front runners so it should be a true run race, I think Marnie James might need this run for fitness plus the trainers record here is 0-33 so maybe one to lay as will be Rovanlemi who may need further to show its best, Tone The Barone and Nigel Nott are joint 3rd top rated on recent form and both like to track the leaders but both of the front runners have higher ratings, Lord Riddiford is 4th rated on recent times but 2nd overall but my money will be riding on LEODIS DREAM 7/1 the other front running type and if it gets to the front it should prove hard to catch and the jockey booking catches the eye as its a 28% winning ratio on the stables older horses.

Leodis Dream 7/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total on the Day: -5pts 

Wednesday, 20 January 2021

3:30 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets (21st January)

LINGFIELD 3.30 

A field of 8 and one known front runner in POWER OVER ME 3/1 and its time from Chelmsford makes it rated 71 on my figures and could feasibly lead all the way, Madrinho is also rated 71 but that is using a 2018 figure, I've got 3 runners all rated 72, Knockout Blow would move to top spot on its own with the apprentices 5lb claim but its best form comes in class 6 races, Shamshon gets its rating from 2019 and hasn't been as good time wise in 2020 or this month, I will also be backing DESERT LAND 6/4 who recorded its 72 rating on its run last time out when winning and could follow up here but i will back them both to cover the angles, they are the first two in the betting which doesn't surprise me and with my ratings making it so close my stakes will be kept low. 

Power Over Me 3/1 1st (+3pts) (Betfair SP 4.10 )
Desert Land 7/4 5th (-1pt)

Total: +2pts

LINGFIELD 4.00 

Not the greatest of races and then add on that its an apprentice jockeys race muddies the waters, i will look to lay (Everkyllachy 7/2) if its a single figure price as it may not stay the distance, Top Boy can find this trip a bit too far if there's a fast early pace and that might happen here but the trainer has a good 18% win ratio in apprentice races, Storm Melody would be top rated if i used its best time from Chelmsford but its only run over this c/d resulted in a low speed figure, Our Man In Havana could go well and is versatile with its racing tactics so maybe worth an each way wager if of value but my money will be riding on DREAMBOAT ANNIE 7/1 who could lead all the way in this race as it is the only natural front running sort in the entrants. 

Dreamboat Annie 11/1 4th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Everkyllachy +1pt

Total: 0pts

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

Red Pike who is a 10yo seems to be on a downward spiral and has shown nothing worthwhile for awhile now but the 11yo LUCKY LODGE 11/1 is still going strong and has been found a decent chance to get back to winning ways here and at the price its worth an each way flutter, maybe its stablemate Tahmeen 3/1 will lead and set the race up for it and Tathmeen might even do enough from the front to make the frame but isn't an each Way price, I will also be backing PEARL OF QATAR 2/1 in this race, it is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and the jockey booking looks a positive one and comes out top on my figures. 

Pearl Of Qatar 2/1 2nd (-1pt)
Lucky Lodge 11/1 4th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

Another race where I will be backing 2 horses to cover the angles, El Hombre 4/1 is capable on its day but the trainer is 1-40 with its older horses at this course and the jockey is 0-14 which is enough to put me off its chances especially at the price, North Wind 12/1 might need a longer trip and the jockeys 0-19 record on the stables older horses makes me wonder if this one will be expected to win but it is a biggish price, Shoot To Kill could try to lead from stall 2 but it might be a bit outclassed at this level, I think/hope the early pace will be set by OUTRAGE 4/1 who has on 4 races been placed in 4 races from its 9 runs over this c/d and could possibly lead all the way here but I will also be backing BIRKENHEAD 13/2 who likes to track the leaders and from stall 1 should get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish and the jockey does well for the stable.

Outrage 4/1 2nd (-1pt)
Birkenhead 12/1 7th (-1pt)

Total: - 2pts

Total on the day: -2pts

Tuesday, 19 January 2021

5:30 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (20th January)

SOUTHWELL 5.30 

Only 5 runners and 4 of them have been known to lead so it will or should be a fast run race which makes me think that (Zapper Cass) may get outpaced or if it tries to go the pace then might not stay the distance so one to lay, Zylan and Requinto Dawn could run big races but I will be hoping that YOUNG JOHN 7/2 can away smartly and then gain control of the rails and if able to reproduce its best time from 2019 it could lead all the way and get back to winning ways. 

Young John 4/1 4th -1pt

Lay bet: Zapper Cass +1pt

Total: 0pts

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

This is a poor class 6 stakes race and it will not take much winning but the biggest problem is the lack of early pace although First Excel has been known to lead but only when nothing else wants to set the pace but has only slow times recently and i had to go back to 2019 to find its best time and that would be a few pounds shy of winning this race, Amazing Amaya is 2nd best on 2020/21 c/d times but drops back to joint 5th overall alongside Red Allure, Blackcurrant is joint 3rd best using a 2019 time while GEORGE THOMAS 12/1 (EW) the other joint 3rd top rated recorded its time in 2020 and it was good enough for top spot on recent times and has to be backed each way at the price, Leo Minor is 2nd best but that time was recorded at Chelmsford a completely different surface and the jockeys 0-13 is a little off-putting, the same applies to Dubai Paradise with a poor jockey stat of 0-12 but its time was also from Chelmsford, so I will stick to recent c/d times and the selections trainer does have a 19% win rate with their older horses. 

George Thomas 18/1 Unp -2pts

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

This time its another class 6 race but quite good for the class, I have found 3 that could try to set the pace, Archimedes could lead but hasn't won for awhile now and the jockeys 0-13 record is off-putting although it has run well and finished in the frame on its last 2 runs and could make the frame again here, Brandy Station is 2nd top rated if using its best Newcastle time but its 2 c/d runs have produced only low speed figures, BLUELLA 16/1 is my 3rd top rated and could do best of those coming from off the pace and the apprentice jockey has a 21% win ratio for the stable, my other selection is ARCAVALLO 11/2 who is capable of leading and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch being my top rated it would have been my sole selection apart from the jockeys 0-5 record for the stable.

Arcavallo 6/1 2nd (-1pt)
Bluella 16/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -2pts 

Total on the day: -4pts

Monday, 18 January 2021

4:40 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bet (19th January)

SOUTHWELL 4.40 

I might look to lay, (Fantasy Keeper 11/2) who has recorded relatively slow times and hasn't been placed in any of its previous c/d races and (Giogiobbo 6/1) who has slow times at this distance and looks to need further to shine, there is another 3 with relatively slow times to their names and would therefore need to improve to win this race, my 4th top rated is You're Cool 9/1 who usually front runs but I'm not sure if it can lead here with 3 other potential pacesetters, Another Angel 9/1 comes out 3rd best overall using a Newcastle time as it hasn't run here before so not sure exactly what it will do on this surface, in 2nd top spot is Alsvinder 6/1 who is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics but has only a slow time to its name for its only previous c/d run which isn't enough form for me to be confident if it does or doesn't like this surface, Red Stripes 8/1 could lead and has been placed lately but the jockey is 0-7 for this stable, I think the winner should come from the four mentioned but I cannot favour any as having a better chance so the betting will be the deciding factor but I'm hoping to dutch all 4, ANOTHER ANGEL 9/1, RED STRIPES 8/1, YOU'RE COOL 9/1 and *ALSVINDER 6/1 to make a profit but it will be to low stakes. 

*NR 

You're Cool 9/1 5th (-1pt)
Another Angel 20/1 7th (-1pt)
Red Stripe 9/1 8th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Fantasy Keeper 5/1 -5pts, Giogiobbi +1pt

Total -7pts

SOUTHWELL 7.10 

Only 7 runners but still a tricky race with a few relatively lightly raced sorts in the field and this shows in the fact that I've only got 3 with recorded times, Nick Vedder 4/5 is 2 from 2 over this c/d and is my 3rd top rated and has won its last 2 races so is in rude form and could possibly complete the hattrick but can it give weight away to all of the others as its handicap rating rises, I'm not sure, Katelli 5/1 is a 4yo who improved last time out to finish 2nd and is my 2nd top rated plus the trainer does quite well at this course with a 23% win ratio with its older horses and could improve again so has to be considered as a possible winner, my top rated is the front running Archimedes 14/1 who has finished in the frame in its last 2 races but the jockeys 0-13 record for the stable is off-putting and the horse is also 0-13 over this c/d but has made the frame in 3 of those 13 races but if allowed an easy lead it could prove dangerous, I think the winner might come from the 3 mentioned but its not a race to get too heavily involved in money wise and it isn't worth dutching with an odds on shot in the race, if pushed I might go with a small wager on Archimedes just because of the price but I'm nowhere near confident enough to actually put it up as a selection.

Sunday, 17 January 2021

5:10 Wolverhampton Tips & lay Bets (18th January)

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.10 

Div1 I am not sure what to make of this 1st division of this class 6 race, firstly it looks devoid of early pace which often makes analysis a lot harder than usual, I have got 4 of the 11 runners that i feel have very very little chance of winning and I will look to lay (Dynamo Walt) who might not stay the distance in a true run race, Poetry And Art comes from a powerful yard who has a very good record at this course and the jockey also has a good record for the stable, it has no form on this surface and it races as though further would suit it better but I certainly wouldn't say not to back it and the betting will a better guide, Onebaba is 4th top overall and 2nd top on just 2020/21 c/d times, My Friend Stan is rated 1lb higher using a time from Newcastle last year, It Must Be Faith is 3rd top on recent times and on a 2019 time it moves to 2nd top rated overall but I will be siding with TAN 25/1 who led last time out before finishing 2nd in a time which makes it my top rated and maybe it can go one better in this contest and I am basing all my work on the selection leading and setting a decently fast early pace. 

Tan 25/1 7th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Dynamo Walt +1pt

Total: 0pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.40

Div 2 This 2nd division has 4 known front running types and one more that has been known to lead but drawn in stall 11 it might struggle to race prominently, I have seen 4 that I would look to lay if of any value and (Jumira Bridge 3/1 may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace and looks poor value at the price), a couple of the possible pacesetters may struggle to lead here with my 3rd top rated Our Man In Havana has been known to lead but hasn't been in good form lately and its best speed figure was recorded in 2019, One One Seven 9/1 could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast in the early stages and fade as it is my 2nd top rated and it might be carrying some of my money as a small covering bet but most of my money will be riding on KUPA RIVER 11/2 another possible front runner and with its jockeys 7lb it moves to top spot and the apprentice seems well worth his claim when riding for this stable with a 21% win rate and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch.

Kupa River 6/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Jumira Bridge -3pts 

Total: -4pts

Total on the day -4pts

Saturday, 16 January 2021

3:35 Southwell Racing Tips (17th January)

SOUTHWELL 3.35 

WASNTEXPECTINGTHAT 5/1 only comes out 5th top on my figures, its not been in form lately and the trainers record here is 1-27 and the jockeys win ratio is 7% so maybe one to lay at the price.

ZYLAN 10/3 is a front running type and my top rated on 2020/21 times which is always a positive but only 3rd top overall and the trainer has a 16% win ratio here and its won 5 times, placed 3 times from 10 previous cd runs. 

KATHEEFA 11/2 is joint 2nd top rated on 2020/21 times but 6lbs off top spot, its best time from 2019 would make it top rated, its won 4, placed 2 from 9 c/d runs so could at least make the frame and could win if repeating its 2019 time but that was recorded quite a while ago now.

STORM OVER 6/1 hasn't any course form to its name, and would need to improve for the switch to this surface to win this race and the jockeys 1-35 record makes me think it could be one to lay especially at the price. 

ALSVINDER 10/1 has been known to lead but maybe only when nothing else wanted to, its got no c/d form to its name and its best from Lingfield would need to be improved upon to win this race. 

REQUINTO DAWN 11/2 another that can lead if needs be but maybe not here, it is joint 2nd top on 2020/21 times so could make the frame and the trainer has a decent 22% win ratio with its older horses at this course but isn't what I would call an each way price. 

BELLEVARDE 16/1 has a time from 2019 that would make it my 2nd top rated but the trainer has a poor 7% win ratio here and the jockeys 1-14 record doesn't make me think connections are expecting it to win this race. 

EQUIDAE 7/1 this trainer has a decent 20% in ratio and the jockey is 16%, it has led before but maybe not here but races as though further suits it better so a fast pace would help its cause and will be staying on at the finish. 

SHAKABOOAH 20/1 is making its handicap debut so could be dangerous but doesn't seem fancied in the tissue prices and with 7 and 8 win ratios for the trainer and jockey isn't great. 

SUMMARY: There is a few I could lay, depending on prices, I think Equidae, Alsvinder, Requinto Dawn and Katheefa could all run well and battle to make the frame, but I will 1 will be putting my money on ZYLAN 10/3 who I think will put the pace to this race with the only downside being its stall 9 draw but in the make-up of this race it could get to the front and if doing so it could lead all the way and follow up from its in last time out, I am not a fan of backing favourites but this is a class 4 affair so i expect connections will be hoping to follow up here.

Zylan 5/1 6th -1pt

Friday, 15 January 2021

3:10 Lingfield Racing Tips (16th January)

LINGFIELD 3.10 

This must be one of hardest races I have ever had to analyse, there's four that have been known to lead and I have got five of the ten runners as possible winners of the race but I have come a conclusion, Kondratiev Wand, with good jockey stats, in stall 7 and Will To Win, with good trainer and jockey stats, in stall 9 have both been known to lead before and are in my five that like to lead plus the former is my 4th top rated so could do enough from the front to make the frame so might be worth a small each way wager at 14/1, Total Commitment would need to improve time wise to win but will be trying to stay on at the finish plus the trainer does well at this course, the top weight Huraiz has good trainer/jockey stats and is another that will be staying on at the business end of the race but hasn't raced over this c/d before and the betting doesn't indicate that it is strongly fancied for this race, I will be pinning my hopes on TOP BREEZE 8/1 who is my top rated and coming out of stall 1, which is ideal for front running type, I'm hoping it will get away smartly and gain control of the rails and then kicking for home once in the home straight and get back to winning ways. 

Top Breeze 8/1 5th (-1pt) 

Total -1pt 

LINGFIELD 3.45 

Only 7 runners but luckily there's a couple who have been known to lead, I could lay a couple of the runners but i expect they will be outsiders in the betting, Cappananty Con 5/1 is my 4th top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish but its best speed figure is a bit below what will be needed to win this race and maybe worth laying at the price, Barrington is my joint 2nd top rated horse and has been known to lead before and is in stall 2 but the other joint 2nd top rated is Swiss Pride the other known front running type in the race and this one is drawn in stall 1 so I can see this pair battling for the lead from the off and maybe they might set the race up for one coming off the pace and I do have SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 7/2 rated 1lb higher and it likes to track the leaders and then pounce if the leaders falter but seeing how closely rated my top three are my stakes will not be at full strength.

Sir Rodneyredblood 5/1 5th 

Total (-1pt)

Total on the day: -2pts

Thursday, 14 January 2021

4:10 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (15th January)

NEWCASTLE 4.10 

When I put something up as a lay it is always a single figure price and admittedly as i get most of these things right they do drift and it is up to you whether you think laying a bigger priced horse is value or not. There is only 2 known front running types in this race and one of them, (Rockley Point) I would look to lay as it might be outclassed here as it usually runs/wins in class 6 races and the jockeys record, 0-10, doesn't inspire confidence, Suwaan has a time from back in 2018 that would make it my 2nd top rated and its not been in good form lately, Tathmeen could make the frame and its won 5 ties from 12 runs over this c/d so could at least make the frame, my money will be riding on LONGROOM 16/1 (EW) who won 3 races ago over this c/d, its next run was a false start and it was a spent force for the re-run, last time out it couldn't get to the front but in the make-up of this race it could lead and if doing so could prove hard to catch and luckily its an each way price. 

Longroom 20/1 5th (-2pts)

Lay bet: Rockley Point +1pt

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 6.00 

There is quite a few lightly raced 4yo’ in this race so any stakes will be kept low, one of them Kits Allanah now in stall 2,improved dramatically last time out when leading before fading to 4th at Chelmsford and this slower surface might work in its favour and it might spoil the hopes of my selection JAZZ LEGEND 10/1  (EW) who is also a front running type luckily it has got the inside berth and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and at the price it has to be given as each way wager, I will look to lay (Archimedes) who is better over a shorter distance, two others Send In The Clouds and Fenix will join the list if in single figure prices as neither have shown much form, the 10yo Kommander Kirkup is still useful on its day but there are few and far between nowadays but never say never but it isn't a great race so wont take much winning. 

Jazz Legend 10/1 (EW) (+12.5pts)

Lay bet: Archimedes +1pt

Total: +13.5pts 

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

Lets start with something to lay (Heartstar) who is 5th top on my figures but this doesn't look to be its favoured surface, another to lay could be (Leo Minor) who stays on this distance but maybe needs further plus its held by on recent form by Gospel and that was a slow run affair for either of them unless the surface was much much slower than usual (that just might be the reason because they say the life of the surface is coming to an end and they are going to resurface the course this spring/summer and they are going to use the Tapeta surface which will be the end of fibresand in this country) I will be siding with RED STRIPES 11/2 who is a front running type and it could lead all the way here being my top rated on recent c/d times and 2nd top overall just behind MARWARI 3/1 who recorded the races highest speed figure at Newcastle in 2020, this will be its 1st run at this course but if taking to this surface it could go well so I will have to back both selections.

Marwari 5/1 2nd (-1pt)
Red Stripes 11/2 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Heartstar +1pt, Leo Minor +1pt

Total: 0pts

Total on the day: +12.5pts