NEWCASTLE 4.20 There's 3 in this race that has been known to lead if nothing else wants to and perhaps Star Cracker from stall 2 could be the one to do best of the front-runners even though the draw isn't much of a factor on this straight course, as it's my 3rd top rated, I've got joint top rated horses in WINDFORPOWER 9/1 who should get a good tow into the race being drawn in stall 3, my other joint top rated is FOXY BOY 8/1 who is in stall 7 and this one also has a possible pacesetter drawn next door to it, with a few unknowns in the race my stakes won't be at full power. WOLVERHAMPTON 5.15 This division of the race got six 3-year-olds in it which muddy the waters a fair bit and any stakes will be kept low but the horse I'm putting up as a selection is the 3-year-old CUBAN SPIRIT 9/1 who usually stays on strongly at the finish at this distance so I'm hoping for a fast early pace so its stamina comes into play, I've got FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN 9/2 as my 2nd top rated here using this year's figures and I know we are nearly at the end of the year but this one has a time from 2017 that would make my top rated by quite a few spots so I will go with backing both selections. WOLVERHAMPTON 5.45 There's only two 3 year olds in this division but looks a bit weaker than the 1st division, FRENCH 7/1 is my 2nd top rated and likes to track the pacesetters but the 3lb claiming apprentice takes it very close to the top of my ratings and he has a 19% win rate on this stables older horses, top rated is SOPHISTICATED HEIR 33/1 so it could be a lovely each way bet and the jockey booked for this ride has a 16% win rate for their older horses, so it looks like both sets of connections are expecting a big run her and I will be backing both to smallish stakes. WOLVERHAMPTON 6.15 A nice looking class 3 affair, SOMETHING LUCKY (now a non-runner)is my top-rated using this years c/d times but does sometimes find this distance a bit too far if they go off really fast from the start but I'm not completely sure if the others can go too fast for it, MERHOOB 14/1 is a front-running type but hasn't run on this surface before but has a fast time from Chelmsford and could be a danger if taking to this surface, another I cannot discount is GO FAR 66/1 but I did have to go back to 2017 to find a time that would see it winning this race but at the price I will have to have a wager so I will go with having 2 smallish each way bets to hopefully make a profit.
KEMPTON 5.15 CANFORD'S JOY hasn't any form on this surface and looking at its turf form it may be better on a slower surface than this one. KRAKA with just 1 run here in a slow time doesn't bode well but a time recorded at Chelmsford would put in the mix but a Lingfield time isn't as good, so not sure what to expect here. NUTINI won over this c/d but it was a slow run race it has a good time at Wolverhampton which is a different surface so again not sure what to expect. PICKET LINE I'm not sure this is its favoured surface but has a time here that would make it my 2nd top rated but stall 9 isn't ideal. REIGNITE this one is making its handicap debut but looking at its 3 runs and breeding it may need further to show its true merit. MAXIMUM POWER has only a slow time on its one run over this c/d but its Chelmsford time would make it competitive to making the frame here. SECRET POTION hast any form on this surface so again delving deeper into its turf form it might be better over a shorter trip. SOAR ABOVE is usually staying on at the finish at this distance but its best time would make it 3rd best at this c/d so could stay on to make the frame. SPENNY'S LASS has only produced slow times both here and at Lingfield and is usually held up for a late run and may make the frame. STORM MELODY this is its debut on any of the all-weather tracks but it does have a fastish time at this distance on good to firm going on grass so may be a hidden danger here. CHICA DE LA NOCHE is my top-rated using c/d times and has an even faster time recorded at Wolverhampton and its a front-running type drawn in stall 2 so could lead all the way. LADWEB hasn't made the frame in its previous 5 all-weather runs but may need further or a slower surface or even both. SUMMARY: There is a 3 in this race that could possibly be hidden dangers in the race which means I cannot be completely confident with my analysis so my stakes cannot be at full strength despite me hoping CHICA DE LA NOCHE 4/1 can lead all the way from stall 2 and go one better than last time out when finishing 2nd. Chica De La Noche 4/1 2nd
CHELMSFORD 7.15 LA FORTUNA comes out 2nd best on my figures despite carrying top weight and should be staying on strongly at the finish 12/1 looks a decent each-way price. JOEGOGO is in 4th position on my ratings and has been known to lead before but stall 9 may be asking too much of it in this race. ROSINA would be 3rd best using a 2017 time and it hasn't run over this c/d this year so could have an each way chance if running to its best but 9/2 looks a bit too short. CHOOKIE DUNEDIN hasn't any form over this c/d so looking elsewhere it may prefer a longer distance and also a slower surface but it's only a 3 year old so could improve but no value at 9/2. TAN has only produced a relatively slow time over this c/d and the way it usually stays on at the end of its races it may be better over a longer distance. MIDNIGHTLY is the one that's well weighted on my figures and comes out top rated, it is capable of leading so stall 2 could be ideal and 15/2 looks a fair price. LALANIA a 3-year-old who hasn't run over this c/d before, it didn't stay over 6 furlongs so it could be a danger if being a possible pacesetter getting a clear run from stall 5 but no value at 4/1. FETHIYE BOY this one hasn't been in much form lately and despite it having stall 1 I cannot see it being quick enough to lead and may then struggle in this race. BECKER the 4th 3-year-old in the race and its sole run over this c/d sees it outside of my top 4 so needs to improve here to win but never say never with a 3-year-old but poor value at 6/1. NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM has a time from 2017 that would see it sitting just outside the frame but its form for this year hasn't been anywhere near that level so not for me here. MOTHER OF DRAGONS the 5th 3-year-old of the race and its 5th best on my figures and stall 7 doesn't look ideal for a pacesetter in the make-up of this race. SUMMARY: With 5 possible pacesetters it should be a true run race, Joegogo, poorly drawn, and Rosina could battle to fill the minor placings but I'm hoping MIDNIGHTLY 15/2 my top rated from stall 2 can get to the lead and gain control on the rails and if doing so ought to prove very hard to pass but if the early pace is too fast and the leaders fade the horse that looks most likely to benefit is the topweight LA FORTUNA 12/1, I will go with my bigger bet on my front running top rated Midnightly and an each way covering bet on my 2nd top rated and strong finishing type La Fortuna. La Fortuna 14/1 8th Midnightly 15/2 9th
Foaled on March 30, 2000, Oasis Dream was a son of Green Desert, winner of the July Cup and renowned for ability to sire world-class winners over distances up to a mile. He was trained by John Gosden, on the Manton Estate, near Marlborough, Wiltshire – at the time owned by the late Robert Sangster – and ran in the familiar green, white and pink colours of Prince Khalid Abdullah, owner of Juddmonte Farms. Oasis Dream made an inauspicious start to his racing career, finishing beaten favourite in two maiden stakes races, over 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs, respectively, at Sandown in August, 2002. The following month, he opened his account in a similar race, over 6 furlongs, at Nottingham, making all the running and quickening clear in the closing stages to win easily, by 4 lengths. On the strength of that facile success, on his next start, in the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket, less than two weeks later, he was sent off 6/1 co-third favourite of three, behind 6/4 favourite Elusive City, winner of the Prix Morny at Deauville on his previous start in August. The market confidence in Oasis Dream was not misplaced, though. Outsider Irrawaddy, trained by Aidan O’Brien, took the 10-strong field to beyond halfway, but was tackled soon afterwards by better-fancied stable companion, Tomahawk, ridden by Mick Kinane; nevertheless, Oasis Dream, who had raced prominently throughout, took the lead approaching the furlong marker and was ridden out by Jimmy Fortune to beat Tomahawk by 1½ lengths, with Elusive City a further neck away in third place. After a 257-day break, Oasis Dream reappeared in June, 2003, at Royal Ascot, where he carried a Group One penalty, for winning the Middle Park Stakes, in the King’s Stand Stakes, which was, at that time, a Group Two contest. Despite tackling 5 furlongs for the first time, he was sent off 6/1 favourite in the 20-strong field; ridden by Richard Hughes, he once again raced prominently but, although he chased the eventual winner, Choisir, in the final furlong, he could make no impression and finished third, beaten 2½ lengths. The following month, back over 6 furlongs, he took his revenge on Choisir, beating the Australian sprinter by 1½ lengths, on identical terms to those at Ascot, in the July Cup at Newmarket to record the second Group One win of his career. The third wasn’t long in coming either, because six weeks later Oasis Dream was made 4/9 favourite for the Nunthorpe Stakes which, despite being run over 5 furlongs on the perfectly flat straight course at York, featured nothing of the same calibre, if his official rating of 125 was anywhere near accurate. In fact, his nearest rival in the betting market was Dominica, a 110-rated four-year-old, trained by Marcus Tregoning, whom he’d beaten by 1½ lengths, on 1lb better terms, in the King’s Stand Stakes. In any event, Richard Hughes and Oasis Dream took the Nunthorpe Stakes by the scruff of the neck, making all the running, quickening at just after halfway and stretching clear in the closing stages to win, impressively, by 2½ lengths. The King George Stakes winner, The Tatlling – who would become famous for his longevity as a sprinter but, at that time, was still a sprightly six-year-old – officially finished second, but he, like the other six runners, never held any realistic chance of catching the winner. The winning time, of 56.20 seconds, was only four-hundredths of second slower than the course record set by Dayjur, a.k.a ‘the fastest horse in the world’, in the 1990 renewal of the Nunthorpe Stakes.
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SOUTHWELL 12.50 This claimer with 10 runners is very hard to fathom what's likely to happen. Ive marked down 2 potentially hidden horses in the race and one of them THE RIGHT CHOICE 5/1 is the only known front runner, so if allowed to lead could steal the honours by leading all the way, the bottomweight Fortinbrass could be thereabouts but im not sure with the apprentice booked to ride’s poor record for the stable, Epeuis’s, my joint 2nd top rated, trainer is 0-24 here in the last 5 years, they also run First Breath, so that puts me off the pair of them, KOMMANDER KIRKUP 4/1 is the other joint 2nd top rated and won last time out so its definitely in form and could follow up here, DREAM ALLY 16/1 is top rated and its a hold up horse drawn in stall 1 so could get a run around the inside of the track and stay on strongly at the finish and looks the each way value call in the race but truthfully I cannot confidently narrow it down any further than the 3 selections so I will look to dutch them all to show a profit whichever one does the business. The Right Choice 5/1 1st Kommander Kirkup 4/1 4th Dream Ally 50/1 9th SOUTHWELL 1.50 This class 6 race is quite dire and I've only got 4 runners with times fast enough to register on my graphs, Honey Gg won last time out but in slow run race and a few behind that day didn't run to their best mainly because of the slow early pace, Sir Geoffrey is my 3rd best rated and could get either the lead or a prominent position from stall 7 on this straight 5 furlong course and the rest of the early paced horses are drawn higher, Archimedes, another possible pacesetter, is my top-rated until I take off points because of the jockeys 0-31 record for this stable, so they may be waiting for another day to win with this one, I will be having a small bet each way, on DECISION MAKER 18/1 as the trainer has a 15% win rate at this course and the jockey is 1-4 for this stable so maybe the connections are expecting a big run here after a poor run last time out behind today's topweight and it looks the value call in the race. Decision Maker 18/1 4th
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00 ORNATE hasn't any recent c/d form and its best from way back in 2015 wouldn't see it make the frame I would look to lay this one. FOXY FOREVER has only produced slow times recently and its best from 2017 would still see it outside the places and may need this run for fitness, so another to lay. DISCREET HERO I have gone back to 2016 for this ones best c/d form, it may need this run for fitness and its 2017 time would only see it in 4th top spot so maybe another to lay. SHAMSHON a front-running type with the plum draw in stall 1, its got good trainer, 17% wins ratio, and jockey, 24% wins ratio, stats, and my top rated. LANDING NIGHT its best time from 2017 wouldn't see it make the frame here but it hasn't run here before this year but it's not for me so another possible lay. JOEGOGO my 2nd top rated but drawn widest of all and may struggle early doors here but can stay on at the finish and may make the frame. YOU'RE COOL is one that likes to front run and could be ok from stall 7 in the make-up of this race and make the frame and 3rd best on my figures. LORD OF THE GLEN the 3rd known front-runner in the race in stall 8 but timewise it's not in my top 4 so may struggle to even make the frame. BELLEGARDE always runs as though a longer distance would suit it better than this minimum trip but may stay on too late here. SUMMARY With 3 possible front-runners this race should be run at a good pace, the one that could benefit if they go off too fast is Joegogo but You're Cool is my 3rd best and a front-runner and also my top rated likes to set the pace and with stall one and the fastest time I'm more than just hoping that SHAMSHON 5/2 can lead here and get control on the rails and then lead all the way to follow up its win last time out. Shamshon 5/2 6th
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15 HELLO GIRL hasn't any c/d form and its time on g/f was on the slow side and its maybe a better horse over a shorter distance. PEGGYS ANGEL has run here once in a slow time and its turf form on g/f going doesn't make me think it will like this surface. LITTLE PALAVER another with no c/d form to work with but is best time from Kempton would see it making the frame but needs to improve for the switch to this surface to win this race and poorly drawn in stall 12 for a possible pacesetter. ANONYMOUS JOHN this one is the type that likes to lead but won't get an easy lead here and timewise it's just outside my top 3 ratings. DANECASE has only run here once but in a slow time and looking at its best aw time it needs to improve a good few pounds to win here. KATHEEFA has got the plum draw in stall 1 but may get squeezed out early as the 3 known front runners cut across to the rails. FARAASAH this one hasn't run here before and its best times from Lingfield leave it with quite a bit to find. HIGHLAND ACCLAIM has run well on the aw tracks but hasn't won in 20 previous attempts and I can't see why that should change in this race. HARRY BEAU comes out 3rd best on c/d times and is usually running on strongly at the finish but maybe too late in this race unless the leaders fade. MONUMENTAL MAN this is the 3rd and final front-running type and in the make-up of this race, it could be the one to gain control of the rails and my joint top rated. DELILAH PARK is the other joint top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish but drawn inside the pacesetters it could get squeezed in the early stages. LAUBALI this 3-year-old races as though it will need a longer distance to show its true potential and may get outpaced in the early stages here.
IT'S ALL A JOKE hasn't any c/d form to work with and its best time from Chelmsford would leave it with a bit to find and may be better over a shorter distance. SUMMARY: I'm not sure this race is one to be getting too heavily involved in betting wise, there's 3 or 4 in the field that could be dangers if taking to this surface, then another few that could be competing to make the frame but I'm hoping in the make-up of this race my selection MONUMENTAL MAN 13/2 can from stall 6 get to the front and take control on the rail and then kick on entering the straight and lead all the way to the line. Monumental Man 13/2 4th
KEMPTON 7.45 HELVETIAN is a 3-year-old that can be held up or track the leaders and ought to get a good early position from stall 2 from which to attack. Merlin has only a slow time at this c/d from just 1 run but has done a fast time on good to firm going so could be a danger if liking this surface, it could attempt to lead but may need some luck from stall 10. Watchable is still a maiden on the all-weather tracks after 8 attempts resulting in a relatively slow time last time out over this c/d it could try? to set the pace but needs to improve. Outrage comes out 4th best on my figures despite looking much better over shorter distances so will have to be held up for a late run here. Me Too Nagasaki hasn't any form at this distance and nothing points to the drop in distance helping its cause so not for me in this race. Exchequer hasn't any c/d form and on other form it looks as though it will need a longer trip before it starts to show its full potential. Drakefell is a 3-year-old who has to be held up at this distance as it always looks better over a shorter trip and its best time makes it only 6th top rated. Al Asef the 3rd of four 3-year-olds in this race, it usually likes to track the leaders but hasn't shown much this year so one I would omit in this race. Busby the 4th and final 3-year-old in the race, it usually tracks the pacesetters and then stays on the stronger at the finish and this race could be run to suit it. Sesretinthepark hasn't any c/d form to its name but recorded a time elsewhere which would make it 3rd top but that's on a different surface but is a versatile sort with its racing tactics. SUMMARY: A nice looking class 3 race with 3 front-running types so it should be a true run race, Merlin, Outrage and Busby could all be battling to make the frame here but my money will be going on the topweight HELVETIAN 10/1 who takes over top spot when taking off the apprentices 7lb allowance and he's already ridden 8 winners for this stable so it looks a positive move but my stakes won't be at full strength in an each way bet. Helvetian 12/1 5th
CHELMSFORD 8.30 This race is quite hard to analyse to a conclusion, there's only 2 of the 10 runners that I can discount, one I'm not sure about and 3 that look potential dangers so any stakes will be on the low side, Equimou’s best time was recorded in 2017 but it hasn't ran here before this year, Excellent George has got the prime draw for a horse that can set the pace, Bowson Fred would be my top rated if I went back to its best time but it was in 2016 but would need to bounce back to form, the 3-year-old Dotted Swiss hasn't run at this c/d before but has a fast time from Lingfield, so there's positives and negatives against the 4 I've mentioned plus the pre-mentioned possible dangers it looks more a race to watch an savour than to be risking any money but if pushed the value call is maybe an each way bet on DOTTED SWISS 12/1. Dotted Swiss 10/1 8th CHELMSFORD 9.00 Down to class 7 for this race which doesn't inspire most people but I love the all-weather racing, that's not to say I get everything right, far from it in fact, I can discount 5 of the 14 runners but there's only 2lbs between my top 5 ratings, the 3-year-old Moremoneymoreparty is 5th best with a rating of 66, it usually tracks the leaders but is 0-8 on the aw tracks, joint 3rd top on 67 are Fly True, a hold up type, and Monarch Maid who is very versatile with its racing tactics. Joint top rated om 68 are Blistering Dancer who can struggle to stay this distance if there's a real fast early pace so has to be held up for a late run and POPPY MAY 12/1 who is the only natural front running type in the race, so if it can get the fractions right from the front it could lead all the way from stall 6 in the make-up of this race and when this jockey rides for the stable he does quite well with a 16% win rate with the older horses. Poppy May 12/1 1st
