LINGFIELD 2.05
Just 6 runners in this Listed class race which is a poor turnout, the race is split into 2 halves with 3 of them having been known to lead before, and I've split the race into 2 halves with the top 3 looking the most likely to win the race, Gracious John comes out 3rd best but there's only 2 places up for grabs, Corinthia Knight is a possible pacesetter and my 2nd top rated and could prove hard to catch but I do have ENCORE D’OR 2/1 rated a few spots higher and it has been found an opportunity to follow up its win last time out and will be carrying my money in this race.
Encore D'Or 2/1 6th
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30
Nearly a full house with 13 runners and theres a couple of front runners so there should be a true early pace, Invisible Storm is one of the possible leaders but when it won it was a slow run affair so im not sure if it can lead here but it ought to make sure the other front runner doesnt get everything its own way, im thinking the top 3 in the handicap, Steelriver, Always Amazing and Major Crispies could all be battling for the minor honours here but the top pair have to overcome long losing runs so maybe a place is the best they can hope for, my 2nd top rated horse is the other front running sort INDIAN AFFAIR 7/2 and it has a chance here to follow up its win from last time out and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch and I will be having a bet on it but I was hoping for a bit bigger price, if FANTASY JUSTIFIER 12/1 can reproduce its best time from 2018 it could stay on strongly at the finish to pinch the honours and I will be backing them both to cover both angles.
Fantasy Justifier 12/1 4th
Indian Affair 12/1 7th
LINGFIELD 3.30
A poorish class 6 race with 12 runners and I will concentrate on the 4 that I think could win the race starting with SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE 6/1 who hasn't shown much timewise since 2017 but its best time from that year would see it winning comfortably here and it won 2 runs ago over this c/d in a slowly run race but has to be on my list, Tavener 10/1 is 3rd top on this years times and could go well as its the only known frontrunner in the race, Dark Magic is 2nd top using recent c/d times but is usually found staying on at the finish at this distance and could make the frame, BROCKEY RISE 8/1 is top rated so I will be backing all 4 horses mentioned but with my stakes tilted in favour of the 2 put in capital letters.
Spirit Of Zebedee 6/1 1st
Brockey Rise 8/1 2nd
CHELMSFORD 5.45
This is a poor class 7 race and is probably best left alone as I've not got enough data to work with for most of the horses but there is one horse that stands out on its best time from 2018 but with so many possible hidden dangers any stakes will be kept low but I might be tempted to back Zipedeedodah 6/1 if there's any value in the betting because it hasn't won a race in its last 27 runs. (it's not as big as I hoped so unless it drifts to a double-figure price I might leave the race alone)
CHELMSFORD 6.15
Only 7 runners but 4 of them look as though further than this minimum distance would suit them better, Warriors Valley has won over c/d but only in a slow run race and the faster early pace in this race might find it out, Cappananty Con is 2nd top rated and usually stays on at this trip but at least in a competitive time but it probably wont finish fast enough to catch JACK THE TRUTH 9/2 who is my top rated and a frontrunner so if getting to the front could prove very hard to catch but firstly it hasn't won in its last 12 attempts and the trainers poor 1-32 record doesn't read well and the top jockey booked has a 0-4 record for the stable isn't the best.
Jack The Truth 9/2 3rd
CHELMSFORD 6.45
In this 7 runner race there 4 that are habitual pacesetters so it should be fast and furious for the class, Zac Brown is my 2nd top rated horse in this race and one of the frontrunners so it could be the one to catch if it gets to the front but I have got VERNE CASTLE 5/1 rated a few spots better and the jockey booked for this ride has a cracking 24% win rate for the stable which hopefully points to connections expecting a big run here and it has every chance here to get back to winning ways.
Abandoned due to fog.
SOUTHWELL 4.10
A nice 10 runner class 4 sprint to start my day with a well balanced field, 4 front running types, 5 that like to track the leaders and 1 hold up type but this one wont get home if the early pace is really fast as it looks likely here especially with my top rated being a possible pace setter, the front running Angel Palanes is 4th on my list and drawn in stall 8 which might be a problem with the other 3 likely leaders drawn inside of it, Zylan is 3rd top but this one might need this run for fitness so I doubt it will win here, Crosse Fire 6/1 is my top rated, a front runner drawn nearest the rail of the 4, in stall 3 so if leading could lead all the way and normally that would make it my only selection, it has been running well making the frame on all 4 runs this year but its been 22 runs since its last win which is a little offputting so I will be backing BLACK SALT 9/2 who usually finishes fast at this trip and this race may be run to suit its style and its trainer does have a good 22% win rate here but I might have a covering bet on my top rated.
Black Salt 9/2 9th
CHELMSFORD 5.50
Only the 7 runners in this apprentice jockeys race and even then I've only narrowed it down to 2 possible winners and even then I'm not confident mainly because 5 of the 7 have been known to lead before, RED STRIPES 11/2 had become a bit of an enigma of running well, usually leading and getting caught and was on a long losing run until its win last time out, if they go off too fast then DANDILION 3/1 could be the one to take advantage if it can reproduce its Kempton time on its 1st run at this course, but reading through my notes as I write about this race it might be a good idea to leave this race alone and wait for better betting opportunities.
Dandilion 7/2 4th
Red Stripes 7/1 7th
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.10
As long as all 8 run this could be a nice class 2 affair, Doctor Sardinicus could attempt to lead from stall 1 and it comes out 4th best on my figures, Boom The Groom another that has been known to lead is 3rd best but has had 27 runs since its last win but could make the frame, I'm not sure if Foxy Forever is a real class 2 horse but is capable of running on well at the finish and could make the frame here but it shouldn't be able to catch my front running, top-rated horse in the shape of SHAMSHON 2/1 and the trainers 20% win rate here looks a good pointer to them hoping for a big run.
Shamshon 3/1 2nd
See Eric's Secret Tips Here
As readers of Eric Winner will know, I love a night at the casino, especially after a day at Great Yarmouth races.
It probably sounds bad talking about gambling all the time. But it's certainly not for me. I make my living from all these crazy websites and betting along the way.
You know what you need to be a good gambler?
Discipline.
Sadly, that is a quality that very few people have this day and age. They would rather tell someone else it is ''all your fault'' when they have no responsibility for their actions.
If someone has a gambling problem, then I suggest they get professional help. For those who bet responsibly then do as you please. I know for a fact, I could make even the most naive punter money without any doubt at all.
I'm not keen betting on slots. Why? Well, if you know anything about gambling you don't need me to say. Because...they are fixed odds. And long term you cannot win! Unlike betting on something that is skill-based such as horse racing, greyhounds or even, as some people do, betting on the weather.
What I do love is the look of these old slot machines. (Look at that beauty in the photo.)
It's an antique slot machine called the Mills 1948 5 cent Golden Nugget Black. Guess how much it costs? On sale for $1999. I'm not sure if that is a good or bad deal, but it looks a fine machine.
While others visit Online Casino Deutschland to find the best deals for free bets and spins some lucky 'devil' has this Golden Nugget of loveliness in their living room and playing a one-armed bandit that you don't mind losing to (money box).
I remember a few of the old Jennings slot machines when I used to go on holiday to Great Yarmouth (Caister-on-sea) and they were some special looking beasts. All chrome, sitting elegantly with the Indian head shining a touch brighter with all the handling from punters (children and adults) hoping for a bit of luck.
In many respects, they were the days of innocent gamblers. I was one of them because I was aged about seven years old. A bag of twopences changed at the kiosk. I'm not sure what I was enjoying more the thought of winning or playing the chromed wonder. Those reels spinning in hope of three melons stopping on the winning line.
It was pure joy.
Did I learn any lessons playing slot machines? Yes. They are not worth a bet. In fact, these modern-day slots are the most addictive form of gambling. The equivalent of a pigeon pecking a button for corn.
You know, even the pigeon stops when the corn doesn't appear.
I would much rather have one of these beautiful old slot machines in my house as an ornate and fun money box.
Who says gambling has to be a problem?
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30
This is a poor class 7 race just for apprentice jockeys which automatically puts me on the backfoot in terms of betting and I will concentrate on my top 5 ratings, Foxy Boy 8/1 would normally not be in the picture to win this race as it can struggle with the distance if there's a fast early pace but maybe that won't happen here with no known 100% pacesetters in the field but it would need to improve to win but could go well. Isabella Ruby 20/1 is my 3rd top rated and always runs on at this distance as though further would suit it better, it has a long losing run to overcome but is a nice each way price. Fairway To Heaven 10/1 comes out 2nd best but has poor trainer stats of 0-17 at this course but is well drawn in stall 2 to get a decent early position from which to attack late on and another that's priced for an each way bet. Picks Pinta is my top rated and it won last time out on this surface and distance but at Newcastle and is 0-9 when running at this course and the trainers 1-55 record is also a bit off-putting and the apprentice is making their debut for this stable so I'm not sure what to expect but I will be having a bet on it. Marble Bar shouldn't really be on my list but its last run was in a class 5 race so this is a big drop in class, looking through its form it hasn't run over this distance before but does have a good time over further and it has raced a bit keenly on more than one occasion and dropped in distance here it could be the one to set the pace and if doing so I think it can bring its stamina into play, the trainer has a decent 15% win rate at this course and he has a 19% win rate in apprentice races so this maybe the day it loses its maiden tag.
SUMMARY:- I do think the winner will come from the 5 horses I've mentioned but the race won't take much winning so my stakes won't be at full power, I would look to dutch all 5 of them but with larger stakes on PICKS PINTA 11/2 and MARBLE BAR 14/1 as an each way bet to make a profit whatever one does the business.
Picks Pinta 13/2 4th
Marble Bar 9/1 4th
CHELMSFORD 5.45
With just 6 runners and no known frontrunners amongst them this could become a tactical affair, Smokey Lane is my 3rd top rated despite looking better on a slower surface and has a fairly long losing run to overcome, King Robert comes out 2nd best and it usually prefers to track the leaders as does my top rated CLASSIC PURSUIT 9/2 and the apprentice jockey booking looks good as he has a decent 15% win rate for the stable and if reproducing its best time from 2018 it would look to win cosily here.
Classical Pursuit 20/1 5th
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30
This is a hard race to analyse and 6 of the 11 runners have been known to lead so it could be run at a furious pace especially as my top 4 ratings are all front running types, Another Angel has been in good form and steps up in class here so may struggle to win but could still go well, Just That Lord is my 3rd top rated but from stall 8 it just might need some luck in the early stages if it intends to try and lead, Something Lucky ran well on Saturday when finishing a close 2nd and has a chance here but I doubt it can lead, which it has done before, and then in stall 4 it could get into a skirmish ro get a good early position and things are so tight at the top of my ratings that could be the difference between winning and just running well, my money will be going on *JOEGOGO 5/1 who is being ridden by a good 7lb claiming apprentice which moves it into top spot but coming out of stall 9 means my stakes won't be at full strenght but if it does get to the front it could prove hard to pass.
*NR
See Eric's Secret Tip Here
NEWCASTLE 7.00
As I would expect this class 3 race is very competitive and a bit muddled with times over this c/d and times from Wolverhampton which has the same surface and timewise there looks to be 5 main contenders:-
DANZAN is 2nd top rated using its best time from Wolverhampton and this is its debut at this course, the trainer has a 17% win rate here and the jockey is 6-19 for the stables older horses which makes me think this one will run a big race.
EQUIANO SPRINGS is 2nd top rated on c/d times and is usually found running on strongly at the finish, the trainer has a 24% win rate and the jockey a 15 win rate for the stable so another that looks fancied by connections.
EQUITATION is making its debut on this surface but looking at its preferences on grass this surface should be ok for it, so if it can reproduce its time from Chelmsford this year it could win cosily and another with good trainer 15% and jockey 21% stats.
ATTHOLBLAIR BOY is capable of doing a fast time and its usual tactics are to track the leaders but its best times are recorded in lower class races so could struggle here.
ORIENTAL LILLY a hold-up type is my joint 3rd top rated but once again its best times have been recorded in lower class races plus its not been in good form lately.
SUMMARY I've narrowed it down to 3 selections in this race but my main concern is the fact that there is no known front running types in the race, DANZAN 10/1 comes out 2nd best on Wolverhampton times but the booked jockey points to it going well here and it could improve enough to win on this straight course and is a decent each-way price, I will have a bet on this horse but it will most likely a smaller covering bet to show a small profit if it wins, EQUIANO SPRINGS 6/1 is top rated on c/d times and can find this trip a little on the short side unless there's a fast early pace to aim at, the same comments also apply to EQUITATION 10/3 so if either of them is allowed to set the early pace they could do enough to make full use of their stamina to win the race and I will be backing both of them as my main bets with an each way covering bet on Danzan.
Equiano Springs 6/1 1st
Equitation 4/1 6th
Danzan 12/1 7th
NEWCASTLE 8.00
This class 6 race with 10 runners I can split into 2 groups with not much to say about most of the runners but eliminate half the field from my list of likely winners, I've got 2lbs between Peachey Carnehan, Dandy Highwayman and Avenue Of Stars in 5th, 4th and 3rd position on my figures and all 3 of them like to race prominently, Thorntoun Lady another who likes to race close to the lead is well weighted on its best form but hasn't shown enough recently to make me think it can win this race which leaves me with the one I will be backing, the top weighted GOWANBUSTER 5/1 who I backed last time out in a class 5 race where it failed to get to the front but its dropped in class here and has a very good chance of leading all the way and I will definitely be having a few quid on this one.
Gowanbuster 5/1 3rd
LINGFIELD 2.40
On paper this looks a nice class 2 race but its bloody hard to be confident when I'm trying to pinpoint the winner and there's 4 of the 8 runners that I think could win this race, Alsvinder is 3rd top rated on c/d times but this one's trainer has another runner in the race which could do better if the trier of the pair, Merhoob is 2nd top rated on c/d times and top-rated using a time from Chelmsford last year but the jockey is 0-14 for the stable on its older horses, Raucous is 2nd top using a Chelmsford time and hasn't run here before and this one's trainer has a good win record here but the jockey is 1-25 for the stable's runners and 0-14 on their older horses, the top rated on this c/d is GULLIVER 6/1 who looks the safest option in the race but does have to break a fairly long, 14, losing run. I do think the winner will come from the 4 I've mentioned and it could pay to dutch all of them but whatever way I go my stakes will be kept low.
Gulliver 6/1 3rd
LINGFIELD 3.15
With 6 runners the prices won't be great but the 2 in the race that have been known to lead look as though they will be setting it up for a finishing type and the 2 I will be looking to back are SOMETHING LUCKY who is my original top rated but only 1lb above ITS ALL A JOKE 5/1 and this one's trainer has a good 21% win rate at this course who could be the strongest finisher in the race and becomes my top rated when you take into consideration the apprentices 7lb claim and an 11% win rate for an apprentice is quite good, i will be backing the latter as my main bet but will have a covering bet on the other selection just in case the apprentice doesn't get things right.
It's All A Joke 4/1 1st + EX £20.40
Something Lucky 5/1 2nd
KEMPTON 6.15
Only 7 runners with a couple of known front-runners, the bottom weight Rock Of Estonia is my joint 3rd top rated but can find this distance too far if there's a fast early pace, Treacherous is the other joint 3rd top rated and likes to track the leaders, the topweight Rose Berry is 2nd top rated and its another that can find the distance too far if the early pace is really fast and I think my top rated LITTLE PALAVER 5/1 can set a pace fast enough to cause the rest of the field problems to catch it and hopefully it will lead all the way and the booked apprentice jockey who claims a valuable 7lb’s has a good 20% win ratio for this stable with a 6-30 record and an even better, 22%, record with the stables older horses at 4-18 and will be my nap bet of the day.
Little Palaver 10/1 6th
NEWCASTLE 6.45
Not a great race with just 7 runners, especially with no known frontrunners in the race but I, 've got two horses that are a good few spots above the others, Lucky Lodge is my 2nd top rated just 3lb below my selection EPEIUS 3/1 who won last time and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here and it has good trainer stats at 21% and the jockey with a 28% win ratio which makes it the one I have to back.
Epeius 100/30 1st + EX £20
NEWCASTLE 7.15
This class 6 race has only 3 horses with fast enough times to register on my graphs, I've got joint 2nd top rated with Ginger Jam who won last time out so is in good form, the only known pacesetter in the race is Queen Of Kalahari who is the other joint 2nd top rated so this one should do enough to at least make the frame but I'm hoping STAR CRACKER 4/1 can catch it before the finishing line appears and go one better than when it finished 2nd last time out.
Star Cracker 7/1 5th
NEWCASTLE 7.45
Back to 7 runners here at least though we have a couple of likely pacesetters and my 3rd top rated Archimedes is one of them, the top weight Tathmeen is my 2nd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders but my top rated is GOWANBUSTER 5/1 who also likes to track the early pacemakers and from stall 2 it should be able to sit just behind the leaders from where it can launch its attack in the final furlong and stay on the stronger at the finish.
Gowanbuster 9/4 4th
SOUTHWELL 2.00
Only 8 runners and its certainly not a great return to racing in terms of sprints also its an apprentice jockeys race but hey ho something will win it, LIAMBA is my 3rd top rated and the only known frontrunner in the race so it could possibly lead all the way if other jockeys allow it to dictate and then kick entering the home straight, Sir Geoffrey shows glimpses of form whenever its in the right mood and could make the frame but I doubt it will win unless others falter but with the 8 runners my selection will be DREAM ALLY 14/1 who is a hold up type and from stall 1 should take the shortest route and then stay on strongly at the finish but my stakes will not be at full strength.
Liamba 6/4 2nd
Dream Ally 33/1 3rd
SOUTHWELL 4.30
I moaned about 8 runners in the first sprint but there's only 5 in this affair but 3 of them have been known to lead before and they are my top 3 ratings, the favourite Point Zero is priced at 13/8 which is way too short to appeal to me and with 2 rated higher I might even be tempted to lay it, Spirit Power is 2nd top rated using a time from Kempton but hasn't raced on this surface before and would need to improve for the switch to actually win the race so I will go with backing ARCHIMEDES 5/1 and this ones 3lb claiming apprentice jockey could tilt things even more into its favour but again I won't be going in all guns blazing.
Archimedes 5/1 2nd
