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Monday, 21 June 2021

4:30 Chepstow Racing Tips (21st June)

C
HEPSTOW 4.30 Div I 

I was going to leave this race alone until I saw the betting, the top weight ICONIC KNIGHT 12/1 (EW) is dropped in class for this race and has a good jockey stats, so I thought it was worth the risk at the price and a small each way punt might pay dividends. 

CHEPSTOW 5.00 Div II 

Firstly I will look to lay (Pastfact 15/2 who might prefer a longer trip and hasn't shown much time wise for quite a while now + Leo Davinci 8/1 who also may need a longer distance on good to firm ground and the jockey is 0-11 for the stable) the early pace could well be set by the top weight PRINCELY 8/1 but this one hasn't shown much time wise since 2018 and that time would make it 3rd top on my figures so with an easy lead it could possibly be dangerous and might be worth an each way bet if a double figure price, SIR RODERIC 9/1 is 2nd top on my figures and it usually stays on at the finish and could also be worth an each way bet if of value to do so and the same could be said of my top rated horse IM WATCHING YOU 10/1 and to tell the truth I cannot really split my top 3 ratings and will go with backing them all. 

CHEPSTOW 5.30 

This looks a competitive affair for a class 5 race and the only known front runner is now a non-runner and that always muddies the waters, I cannot find anything to lay in this race which backs up my theory of how competitive the race actually is, I have narrowed it down to 4 possible winners, GHEPARDO 13/2 my 4th top rated who usually runs on at the business end of a race over this distance, GLAMOROUS FORCE 7/2 who is my 3rd top rated and these two have both recorded their best times this year which is always a good pointer but I have SHOW ME THE BUBBLY 14/1 as my 2nd top rated but this time i am using a 2020 time from Bath but the jockeys 1-26 record is off-putting but it might be worth an each way punt at the price, my top rated is AQUADABRA 4/1 and the jockey Luke Morris has a good record when riding for today's stable, I will have to dutch all 4 of them but maybe tilting slightly in favour of my top rated but with no known pacesetter in the race my stakes will be kept low.

Wednesday, 16 June 2021

2:10 Chelmsford Racing Tips (17th June)

CHELMSFORD 2.10 

Only 6 runner with half of them being 3yo’s, I will look to lay half the field, Marly has only shown poor form recently and the jockey is 1-28 for the stable so I'm hoping that's a good pointer to its chances here, Red Fascinator looking at its form elsewhere this 3yo might not like this surface but it is one that likes to lead but I doubt it can stay there on this surface, Lovely Breeze is another 3yo and is forecast to be a hot favourite but I think this one will be better when raced over longer distances and could get outpaced in the early stages if Royal Dynasty and Red Fascinator battle to lead and then might not get to them quickly enough to win this race so i will be siding with MINHAAJ 10/1 who is usually held up for a late run and this race might be run to suit its style. 

Minhaaj 17/2 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

RIPON 3.25 

A field of 15 with 2 known front runners amongst them but only 6 runners have times fast enough to register on my figures, firstly I will look to lay Mo Henry 9/1 who hasn't won since 2017 but is forecast to be a single figure price and Lucky Beggar 7/1 who hasn't shown much time wise since 2019 despite having what looks like decent recent form with a win and a place in its last 3 runs and could feasibly be placed again here but I doubt it can win the race, Ustath could go well as it recorded its best time this year when it won at Thirsk, my 2nd top rated is Gullane One who along with Ustath could set the pace to this race and if allowed an easy lead it could prove troublesome to catch but I will be backing HARD SOLUTION 9/2 who has won its last 2 races and has been found an ideal opportunity to complete the hattrick here. 

Hard Solution 5/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

LINGFIELD 7.10 

A 10 runner race where only half of then have registered on my speed figures, I will look to lay Trouser The Cash 2/1 who has a time from Chelmsford last year that would make it my 2nd top rated but it usually needs its first run after a break for fitness so lets hope that happens time as well, Katelli 10/3 who hasn't any c/d form but looks as though its better when raced over further and Hyba 9/4 who only recorded a slow time when finishing 3rd last time out at Wolverhampton so might have been flattered by that result, Hurricane Alert has a time that would make it my 3rd top rated but that was back in 2019, Mercers and Kyllukey are 2 others with recorded times but only 4th and 5th fastest, I will be backing AGUEROOO 9/2 who usually stays on strongly nearing the finish over this minimum distance and hopefully from stall 4 it can gain a good early position to work with and then a clear run when challenging. This race is a good example of how I try to bet/lay in the same race, if you lay the 3 horses at 2/1, 9/4 and 10/3 you lose very little if anything if one of them does go on to win.

Aguerooo 6/1 7th -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

Tuesday, 15 June 2021

2:40 Hamilton Racing Tips (16th June)

HAMILTON 2.40 

EY UP ITS MICK 5/2 can be held up or track the leaders and has been slowly improving each run lately and it finished 2nd last time out so this could be its day. 

TAYLORED 9/2 a 3yo who has only slow times over this distance but it has been fading over 7 furlongs but this race might not be run to suit it. 

REELY BONNIE 16/1 hasn't any form at this distance on good or good to firm going and it may have been avoiding fast ground so this going might not suit it. 

THE MACKEN TORPEDO 25/1 hasn't any distance form on turf and it would need to improve on its best AW time at Wolverhampton to win here. 

STRONSAY 11/4 won an amateur riders race in a time that would make it my 2nd top rated and it usually races in midfield then trying to stay on at the finish. 

COOL DANDY 3/1 this 3yo hasn't any form at this distance on turf and I have very little to work on, I couldn't lay or back this one and could be the fly in the ointment if I back something else. 

SUMMARY: Only 6 runners and two of them are 3yo’s who could still be capable of improving, the real problem is the lack of known early pace but EY UP ITS MICK 5/2 usually runs on strongly at the finish and this looks a slightly easier race than when it finished 2nd last time out so I'm hoping it goes one better in this race and also hoping the bottom weight Cool Dandy doesn't spoil things for me. 

Ey Up It's Mick 11/4 5th -1pt

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 8.53 

A 10 runner race where only half of them have gone fast enough to register on my figures, there is only 1lb between Sir Rodneyredblood my 5th top rated and Lilklan and Kath's Lustre who are joint 3rd top rated so any of them could make the frame and Lethal Angel my 2nd top rated is only 3lb’s higher but my top rated 3yo CARBON POSITIVE 3/1 who won last time out and could be capable of doing even better as it gains more experience and repeat of its time when it won would see it winning this race a shade cosily, it has decent trainer/jockey stats which is always a positive and the apprentices 3lb claim helps its cause even further, it is versatile with its racing tactics and from stall 2 it should be able to gain a good early position and use whatever tactics they think will win this race. 

RIPON 9.00 

In all reality this race should be left alone as I have only got one horse in the race with a time fast enough to register on my figures and that is HELLO GIRL 9/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and then stay on at the business end of the race and if it is a double figure price it might be worth having a small each way punt, its forecast on the tissue prices at 25/1 as it hasn’t shown anything in its last four races so it is a risky wager but these sort of bets can make a good week a very good week.

Monday, 14 June 2021

1:40 Thirsk Racing Tips (15th June)

THIRSK 1.40 

This isn't a great race for a class 4 affair but there is one known front runner in the shape of The Armed Man but this ones recent times have been slow and its best time looks to be where it got towed along in a fast run affair, with nothing that I can see to lay and not being able to narrow it down to anything less than dutching 4 of the runners, FLAVIUS TITUS 12/1 has a time from last year that would put it top on my figures but hasn't won a race since 2019 but might be worth an each way interest, MUTANAASEQ 10/3 is 2nd top rated but is held by DICK DATCHERY 4/1 on recent form but the former has a faster time from Ripon that makes it my 2nd top rated while the latter is only 4th top on my figures, the 4th selection I'm going to dutch is NORTH WIND 11/1 who likes to track the leaders and this one has the best trainer/jockey stats of my 4 top ratings. 

Mutanaaseq 10/3 2nd -1pt 
North Wind 11/1 3rd -1pt 
Dick Datchery 4/1 4th -1pt 
Flavius Titus 16/1 6th -1pt 

Total -4pts


ASCOT 3.40 

Superstar sprinter BATTAASH 9/4 makes it debut for the year and if fully wound up it should take this race but I am still not convinced this course is its favoured one but it has won here and in a fast time so it should be up to the task and I expect for a 16 runner race it will be a fairly short priced favourite, it is forecast on the tissue prices to be a 15/8 shot which if we knew it was 100% ready for this race would be a steal and it did win first time out last year so I will be backing it at the price and even better now that its drifted a little bit. 

Battaash 9/4 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

THIRSK 5.10 

There is 6 horses in this 12 runner race that have been known to lead before so it should be a fast and furious race, I will look to lay Albegone 9/2 and Debawtry 13/2 if single figure prices who I think will both need a longer distance to show their worth, True Hero has a time when it got a good tow in a fast run affair from 2019 that would make it my 2nd top rated but it hasn't won since 2018 but is a versatile sort when it comes to racing tactics, of the front runners maybe Sambucca Spirit might do best and looks to be drawn well in stall eleven, my pennies will be riding on BOUDICA BAY 9/2 who can track the leaders or be held up but stall 1 might not be helpful but if getting the rub of the green it has a chance to get back to winning ways. 

Boudica Bay 17/2 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

BRIGHTON 5.45 

Only 7 runners and I will be looking to lay both Mahale 7/2 and Top Boy 8/1 as neither seem to like fast good to firm ground and with 2 known front running types in the race they might get outpaced in the early stages and then not be able to get back into contention in this race, Big Time Maybe is one of the front running types and comes out 2nd best on my figures but the other front running type is THEGREYVTRAIN 11/2 who also happens to be my top rated and if this one does get to the front it ought to prove very hard to catch and has good 23% trainer stats and even better 38% jockey stats making me think the connections are expecting it to get back to the winners enclosure in this race. 

Thegreyvtrain 11/2 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

BRIGHTON 6.50 

A 5 runner race but again I have marked down 2 horses to lay as both Sir Oliver 15/8 and Shoot To Kill 7/2 can struggle to stay the sixth furlong in a fast run race and there is 2 known front runners in this race and they are my 2 top rated horses, Doc Sportello is my 2nd top rated and could be the one for the forecast but my money will be riding on the top weight KENDERGARDEN KOP 11/4 who has good trainer and jockey stats and I'm hoping it can lead all the way.

Kendergarden Kop 11/4 2nd -1pt

Total on the day -8pts

Sunday, 13 June 2021

6:50 Nottingham Racing Tips (14th June)

NOTTINGHAM 6.50 

LATIN FIVE 8/1 likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish and races as though further might help its cause but this race could be run to suit it. 

SALUTI 8/1 usually tracks the leaders and then stays on at the finish and comes out 3rd best on my speed figures so could make the frame. 

NIBRAS AGAIN 12/1 hasn't shown much time wise since 2019 and usually stays on at the business end of a race but the jockeys 0-8 makes me think this race isn't its target. 

BLAZING HOT 10/1 is one of the two known front runners in the race and comes out 2nd best on my figures and could be hard to catch if getting an easy lead but I doubt that will happen but could make frame so maybe value to do as an each way punt. 

EEH BAH GUM 3/1 is the other one of the two known front running types in the race and its best time from 2019 would make it my 3rd top rated so could make the frame but its not an each way price. 

HELVETIAN 8/1 this one looks as though a longer trip would help its cause and would need to improve time wise to win this race. 

BIRKENHEAD 12/1 is a hold up type of horse but it may struggle to catch the leaders in this race and isn't in my top 4 speed ratings. 

TOMSHALFBROTHER 7/2 the trainer has a decent 22% win ratio here with their older horses but this one might be better over a longer distance and one I will look to lay at the price. 

MAY THE SIXTH 20/1 hasn't any turf form to its name and it would need to improve on its best AW time which came at this distance at Wolverhampton. 

CONCLUSION: Blazing Hot and/or Eeh Bah Gum look the likely pacesetters and the former is my 2nd top rated so could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I think they could set this race up form the top weight. LATIN FIVE 8/1 who likes a fast pace to aim at and its best time was recorded this year so is my top rated on both recent and overall speed figures. 

Latin Five 9/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

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WINDSOR 7.30 

EDRAAK 3/1 comes out 4th top rated on my figures and is usually held up in the rear or in midfield to come with a late run and its best time did come from this year but isn't an each way price. 

TINTO 16/1 is usually held up for a late run and is my 2nd top rated but the apprentices 3lb claim makes it very tight between my top 2 ratings and looks worth an each way punt. 

OPEN WIDE 11/1 is my 3rd top rated and likes to track the leaders so could do enough to make the frame if an each way price. 

IVANTHEENGINE 11/2 has poor recent form to its name in its only 2 races this year and its best time which was at Wolverhampton wouldn't win this race so maybe worth laying if a single figure price.

INDIAN CREEK 4/1 usually likes to race in the midfield in its races and time wise it would need to improve to win this race and may not catch the leaders quickly enough.

A SURE WELCOME 7/2 I think this is the one that will set the pace in this race and is my top rated so ought to prove very hard to catch. 

CONCIERGE 10/1 has only slow times from its recent races and may be a better prospect when tried over further than today's 6 furlongs. 

HAN SOLO BERGER 11/1 has only slow times over this distance mainly due to the fact it looks better when tried over a shorter distance. 

CONCLUSION: Only the one known front runner so A SURE WELCOME 7/2 could go well from the front if allowed an easy lead and will be carrying some of my money but to cover the angles I will also be backing TINTO 16/1 who is usually held up for a late run and there is very little between them on the clock and looks worth having a small each way bet because it looks value at the price.

Tinto 16/1 2nd -1pt 
A Sure Welcome 7/2 3rd -1pt

Total on the day -3pts

Saturday, 12 June 2021

2:38 Salisbury Racing Tips (13th June)

SALISBURY 2.38 

A 6 runner dash, 5 furlongs, with just the bottom weight Coronation Cottage 10/1 known as a front running type and its best time from Bath last year puts it in 2nd top spot on my figures but that time was recorded in a lower class race and it may struggle here unless allowed an easy lead but as the other 5 runners are all known to track the leader I doubt that will happen and i would look to lay it if a single figure price another i will look to lay is Beyond Equal 7/2 who is forecast to be the favourite but this one looks better when raced over further and may stay on too late to win this race, my money will be riding on ROSE HIP 2/1 who has recorded a reasonable speed figure for this year but it is its best time from 2020 that makes it my top rated and the jockey does have a 17% win ratio for the stable so I'm hoping that's a good omen. 

Rose Hip 3/1 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

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DONCASTER 3.15 

Another 6 runner dash with both Mountain Peak my 4th top rated and Caspian Prince my joint 2nd top rated known as front running types so it should be a true run affair, Royal Birth is my other joint 2nd top rated but I had to go back to 2019 to fins this ones best speed figure but this ones best form this year is very much lower, Ginger Jam and Jawwaal both need to improve time wise to win this race which leaves me with the top rated INDIAN SOUNDS 10/1 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish so this race could be ideal for it. 

Indian Sounds 10/1 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

SALISBURY 3.38 

Yet again another 6 runner race with one known front running type in Mum's Tipple and Cairn Gorn who is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and that does include leading, the former is my 3rd top rated using a time from 2019 but hasn't shown as much since then, the latter is a 3yo so could still improve and it needs to to win this race but it was racing in higher class races last year but this is its 1st run of this year so not really sure what to expect but I would respect its chances if backed, the bottom weight, another 3yo, comes out 2nd best using a time recorded on the AW at Chelmsford, my top rated is KHAADEM 11/8 who comes out top on just recent ratings and on overall ratings using its best time from 2020 it also has good trainer stats and very good jockey stats and will be carrying my money.

Khaadem 11/8 2nd -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

Friday, 11 June 2021

1:35 Sandown Racing Tips (12th June)

SANDOWN 1.35 

I will look to lay both Phoenix Star 11/2 and Vandad 11/1 if they are single figure prices, the former seems to want a longer trip to show its best while the latter has poor trainer/jockey stats and seems a weak finisher over both sprint distances, Shecandoo 8/1 has been running well but my be outclassed in this race but i doubt it will be a single figure price at the off, Secretfact 12/1 seems to be on a downward spiral time wise each year and as an 8yo I doubt it will bounce back to its best of 2019, Saaheq 13/2 doesn't want the ground to be rattling but this ones best time from 2019 would put it in the mix but the trainer has a poor record here with their older horses of one win from thirty four races, Royal Birth 14/1 could go well here but its another that I've gone back to 2019 to find its best form, they are all capable on their day but can they bounce back to form is the question so I will place my faith on SERAPHINITE 15/2 who likes to track the leaders and is my top rated on recent, 2020/21, times and the jockey has a 25% win ratio on the stables older horses so I'm hoping that's a positive omen. 

Seraphinite 15/2 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt

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CHESTER 2.10

I can see 3 front running types in this 14 runner race but I am not a fan of betting at this course, Turanga Leela 8/1 and Glory Fighter 9/2 could set the pace and the former could do enough from the front to make the frame but they are both a bit short in the betting to be of value in my opinion, Brian The Snail 10/1 could go well but stall 3 isn't of any help for a hold up type unless the rails have the cutback nearing the finish, Second Collection 14/1 is my top rated on a time from Windsor last year but its out in stall 12 which could be a hindrance and the trainer is 0-16 here and the jockey is 0-12 for the stable, so my money will be on SIR MAXIMILLIAN 11/2 who from stall 4 could sit just behind the leaders waiting to pounce at the business end of the race. 

Sir Maximillian 10/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

YORK 5.25 

A field of 20 here so very very hard to be sure what will happen concerning the draw, I think/hope those drawn high may have the advantage and will be betting accordingly, Mr Wagu 8/1 has been in tremendous form lately and could try to set the pace here but this is a step up in class so I'm not sure its up to winning this race but I do expect it to go well and could at least make the frame so I will have a covering bet on this one just in case it is improving enough to handle this higher class race, there isn't anything of value that I can find to lay in this race as they are all double figure prices so no lays but I will be having a small each way wager on SOUL SEEKER 16/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stay on at the finish, it has good jockey stats and also a stall 17 draw might be advantageous so at the price it looks the value call. 

Soul Seeker 18/1 6th -1pt

Total -1pt

LEICESTER 8.45 

Only 7 runners but 4 of them have been known to lead, I will look to lay Cool Spirit 2/1 who may need further to show its best and looks poor value at the price so worth taking the risk of laying it, it has been known to lead but in longer distance races so it might get outpaced in the early stages of this race, Davids Beauty could do best of the front runners and will be hard to pass once hitting the front but with only 2 places its not worth going each way, my money will be riding on KATHERINE PLACE 13/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly in the final stages of the race so this race could be ideal for it.

Katherine Place 13/2 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

Thursday, 10 June 2021

3:10 Chepstow Racing Tips (11th June)

CHEPSTOW 3.10 

GREY GALLEON 7/1 can be held up or track the leaders but is only 4th top rated on my unique speed figures but could make the frame if others falter.

AIRSHOW 3/1 has only won once from 19 races on turf and that win was in 2017 so I will look to lay this one if a single figure price.

BEZZAS LAD 9/2 this one is my 3rd top rated and i think it will be the most likely one to set the pace and could do enough from the front to at least make the frame. 

GILT EDGE 11/2 comes out 2nd top on recent, 2020/21, times it does have a faster time but that time seems to be a bit of a one off, it could go well and may make the frame.

SWISSAL 11/1 has only shown poor form on its recent runs and races as though further would suit it better and an old time on good to firm going was still relatively slow.

I'M WATCHING YOU 8/1 is my top rated on recent c/d times and usually stays on strongly at the finish of a race over this distance.

PASTFACT 7/1 has only slow recent times and it looks as though it may prefer a shorter trip or maybe a slower surface or maybe both so one I will look to lay. 

DIAMOND COTTAGE 7/1 has only slow times over this distance on good or good to firm ground and another for my list of possible lays. 

SUMMARY: Not a race to be betting too heavily in but I will side with my top rated and have a small bet on I'M WATCHING YOU 8/1 the jockey is making his debut for the stable but they only have a 9% win ratio at this course which is another reason for keeping stakes low. 

I'm Watching You 14/1 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

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CHEPSTOW 3.45 

BELLEVARDE 10/3 is a front running type and has a time from 2020 that would make it 2nd top spot on my own figures and the jockey is 1-6 on the stables older horses. 

EQUALLY FAST 10/3 can be versatile with its racing tactics and is a course and distance winner but it needs to improve time wise to win this race. 

FLIP MODE 3/1 won last time out beating 3 of today's rivals but isn't weighted as well here and the top 2 in this race could reverse that form. 

TWILIGHTING 13/2 lightly raced type but hasn't even made the frame in its 6 runs on turf and maybe better when racing over a longer distance. 

SHOW ME THE BUBBLY 28/1 comes out 3rd best on my figures using a time recorded at Bath last year and can be held up or track the front runners. 

AQUADABRA 5/1 is actually my top rated but its best times are recorded on good ground and doesn't want the going to be good to firm so maybe this wont be a suitable race for it. 

OH SO NICE 10/1 has only slow times over this distance and poor recent form altogether despite being known to lead races. 

SUMMARY: The top weight *BELLEVARDE 10/3 is a likely pacesetter and is weighted in this race to reverse form with Flip Mode who beat it in its last race, Aquadabra would be dangerous if the going was good and not good to firm so I will have to wait to see exactly how fast the going is before betting but at this moment in time I will be having just the one bet in this race.

*NR

Total on the day -1pt

Wednesday, 9 June 2021

2:45 Nottingham Racing TIps (10th June)

NOTTINGHAM 2.45 

Only 7 runners in a class 3 race, Lethal Lunch 11/2 has relatively slow times and may find this trip too short on good to firm ground so I would look to lay it, Muscika comes out 4th top rated using a 2020 time and usually likes to track the leaders, Typhoon Ten comes out 3rd top rated but the jockeys 0-17 record for today's stable makes me think they have another target in mind, Wentworth Falls can be held up or track the pacesetters but would need to improve time wise to win this race that's if others run to their potential, One Night Stand has a reliable time from 2020 at Windsor that would make it my 2nd top rated and has decent trainer/jockey stats but the jockey is 0-4 on the stables older horses but that isn't enough data to be taken as a definite, Dancinginthewoods can track the leaders or be held up but its best time wouldn't put it in my top 4, Case Key has a fast time and it is the only known front running type in the race so could be dangerous with a soft lead but it was recorded in a lower class race and I'm not sure its up to winning in this class. 

SUMMARY: Case Key could go well from the front and could make the frame but with only 2 places I wouldn't back it each way, my money will be riding on ONE NIGHT STAND 11/1 who is usually held up or in midfield and then stays on strongly at the finish. 

One Night Stand 11/1 1st +11pts (Betfair SP -) 

Total +11pts

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HAYDOCK 6.30 

Another 7 runner affair in a class 4 race, Marks Choice is usually held up for a late run but hasn't run recently over this distance on good to firm ground and its best from 2019 is only good enough for joint 4th top spot, Ventura Express prefers to track the leaders but time wise it would need to improve to win this race, Nibras Again has a time from 2019 that would make it my 2nd top rated but its been way below that level since that year, Fox Hill usually stays on at the business end of its races but is only 3rd best on my ratings, Secretinthepark 6/1 is the other joint 4th top rated and usually stays on at the finish over this distance but maybe too late for the win so one to lay, Dark Shot is the one i think will set the pace to the race and comes out top rated using a 2020 time from Leicester, Tenaya Canyon this 3yo hasn't any form over this distance on good to firm ground so I couldn't back or lay this one. 

SUMMARY: I am hoping that DARK SHOT 11/1 will set the pace to this race and then should prove hard to reel in, the trainers 0-5 at this course isn't ideal but not really enough data to make a confident analysis and the jockeys 1-24 when riding for this stable does look like a negative so my stakes will be kept low.

Dark Shot 11/1 4th -1pt

Total on the day +10pts

Tuesday, 8 June 2021

1:50 Yarmouth Racing Tips (9th June)

YARMOUTH 1.50 

A field of 13 runners with just the one known front running type amongst them, I will look to lay both Pedestal 9/2 who has never won over this distance and on recent form its held by Twice As Likely who is my 5th top rated horse, and Thake 6/1 who races as though its better over a shorter distance and as usual that's it they are single figure prices, I cannot with any confidence narrow it down to less than 3 horses so I will be dutching the 3 of them, the top weight ROCKESBURY 9/1 is the one that could set the pace and it comes out top rated but that is using a time from on the AW at Chelmsford and taking into consideration the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim, LINCOLN RED 8/1 is 3rd best on my figures but has run to the same level for both 2019 and 2020 so is capable of being competitive here and this one has decent trainer/jockey stats so could be worth an each way interest, NIBRAS SHADOW 7/2 is the 3rd one in my list to dutch but this one has poor trainer/jockey stats with the stables older horses. 

Rockesby 11/1 1st +11pts (Betfair SP 15.5) + £83.60 EX
Lincoln Red 8/1 2nd -pt
Nibras Shadow 4/1 8th 

Total +9pts

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HAMILTON 8.15 

Only 6 runners with one known front running type amongst them, I will look to lay Fendale 7/2 who might prefer a shorter trip and Equidae 9/2 who may be better over further, Call Me Ginger is my 3rd top rated and the jockey has a 15% win ratio for the stable, the early pace might be set by BREAKING RECORDS 7/1 who is my 2nd top rated so could be hard to catch for most of the others but I do have ABEL HANDY 11/1 rated higher, the trainers 1-28 win record here and the jockeys 1-27 win record is quite a bit off-putting but I don't think I have any choice so I will be backing them both to cover the angles. 

Abel Handy 16/1 4th -1pt 
Breaking Records 7/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

HAMILTON 8.45 

What a dire looking race which sure wont take much winning and I only have 2 horses with recorded speed figures with rest being a bunch of slowcoaches, firstly I will look at Corton Lass 8/1 to lay if its a single figure price who might prefer a longer as might Lord Of The Glen 7/4 who I will also hope to lay, Signore Piccolo is the only known front running type in the race and with an easy lead could go well and maybe worth an each way interest, Guardia Svizzera i my 2nd top rated who might be better over further on good to firm ground and hasn't won since 2018 so I will be backing THRILLA IN MANILA 9/4 who just looks the best of a poor lot but i expect it will be to the fore in the betting but the trainer does have a 15% win ratio with the older horses at this course.

Thrilla In Manila 9/4 1st +2.25pts (Betfair SP 2.76) 

Total on the day: +9.25pts