Eric's Weekly Round Up: Outrage 5/1 & Spirit Of Wedza 6/1



Saturday, 20 October 2018

6:15 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (20th October)

Horse racing tips WOLVERHAMPTON 6.15 

CURIOUS FOX is dropped in class to run here and hasn't run on this surface+distance recently but going back to its best from 2016 I think it will still struggle here, so not sure what to expect. 

ROY'S DREAM is being ridden by a 7lb claimer which puts it in joint top position at this c/d but that was in 2017 and poorly drawn here in stall 9 and a 14/1 shot.

MISTY SPIRIT a possible front-runner from stall 3 but it hasn't run on this surface before but its best time from Chelmsford would make it top rated here but I'm not sure this surface will suit it and the betting, 22/1, seems to agree with me.

BROKEN WINGS is a 10 run maiden who recorded a fast time at this distance on good to firm going on grass but hasn't run on this surface before could be a hidden danger, the price 14/1 makes it look as though its unlikely to win but I think its a bit overpriced. 

HAYLAH is an 11 run maiden and its best Lingfield time at this distance is relatively slow which makes me think this trip is too far for it at this time of its career and I certainly wouldn't back it to win this race at 3/1. 

MARSEILLE has only produced slow times at this distance as it always looks as though this distance is beyond it if there's a strong early pace and at 11/1 the bookies agree.

CHARLESTON BELLE has a time over c/d this year which makes it joint 4th best and should be staying on at the finish of the race but maybe too late and 6/1 is maybe a touch short. 

MASQUERADE BLING is my top rated on this years c/d times it can be held up or track the leaders and stays on strongly at the finish and its 4/1 2nd favourite. 

TURANGA LEELA hasn't any recent surface/distance form and its best from 2017 would only make it my joint 4th top rated but it could try to front run here from stall 2 and could be an each way bet at 16/1. 

INGLEBY ARCH comes out 2nd best on 2018 course and distance times and can be held up or track the leaders but stall 7 isn't ideal in the make-up of this race and 7/1 is a true reflection of its chances. 

CELERITY is a 52 run maiden, hasn't produced a recorded time on my figures and looks better over the minimum trip and as expected its a 66/1 shot. 

SUMMARY: There's a few lines of data here to analyse and leaves me with Curious Fox and Broken Wings who could both be hidden dangers, if Misty Spirit can repeat its best Chelmsford time here it would top rated and is well housed in stall 3 for a front-runner but I'm not sure this surface will suit it but never say never. If the 7lb claimer riding Roys Dream is worth their claim it could become very competitive here but the draw is a little offputting, I will go with my top rated over course and distance in the shape of MASQUERADE BLING 4/1 who can track the leaders or be held up, the trainer has an 18% win rate at this course and the jockey is 2-6 for this stable so it looks as though the connections are expecting a big run here.

Masquerade Bling 5/1 5th 

Friday, 19 October 2018

8:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (19th October)

Newcastle free horse racing tips
NEWCASTLE 8.15 

A maximum 14 runners and quite a strange race to analyse to a conclusion, Penny Pot Lane is 1 of only 2 known front runners in this race its could be capable of leading here but would need to improve to stay there all the way and does usually fade nearing the finish at this distance, Siege Of Boston could be dangerous as its dropped in class but hasnt any form on this surface, Thello could be a contender in this race especially with the jockeys 3lb claim, the 3-year-old Wazin has a decent time from Wolverhampton that would make it very competitive it has had 1 run here without showing much but I cannot discount it completely, another 3 year old that could be dangerous is Mutabaahy, *SECRETINTHEPARK 8/1 has the best time from this c/d this year and ought to be staying on at the finish, I will also be backing KOMMANDER KIRKUP 16/1 who comes out 3rd using c/d times this year and has a time from 2017 that could see it winning cosily so I will go with 2 each way wagers in this race. 

* NR
Kommander Kirkup 25/1 7th 


NEWCASTLE 8.45 

Starting with the 2 known front-runners in the race, Casterbridge and Roaring Rory and the latter may do best of the pair being 2lbs rated higher and did its best time this year but I do have 3 that have higher ratings, Kinloch Pride does have to use a 2017 time to put it in my top 3 but it proves it is capable but has been quite a way below that level so far this year, Windforpower is 1lb lower on this years figures but it is top rated using a 2017 time and Burtonwood is 2nd best using 2017 times, so I will go with backing 2 selections to cover both angles, that of a possible pacesetter in the shape of ROARING RORY 12/1 who has the top time using c/d form this year but the biggest danger in my eyes could be WINDFORPOWER 12/1 who is only 1lb off top spot this year and has the fastest time of all runners using a 2017 time and at the double-figure prices I will go with 2 each way bets.

Roaring Rory 16/1 5th
Windforpower 12/1 Unp

Thursday, 18 October 2018

4:40 Brighton Racing Tips (18th October)

Free Horse Racing Tips
BRIGHTON 4.40 (8.1) 

This isn't an easy race to analyse, I've got 5 that are known to front run and the 3 at the bottom of the weights, Belledesert 8/1, Archimedes 8/1 and Broadhaven Honey14/1, are all in my top 4 ratings but none of them are drawn well and the same applies to Oneovdem 12/1 who could be an improver having its 4th run here, Shamshon 8/1 could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast but this one got stall 12 (hope you can see why its hard to be very confident with this race) but I do think the winner should come from the 5 I've named above and I can only look to dutch them all to show a profit but having now seen the betting BROADHAVEN HONEY 14/1 looks the value call but only to small stakes. 

Broadhaven Honey 14/1 1st + EX £90 

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.25 

Another race where the data is quite conflicting in parts but I have come to a 1 horse conclusion, Top Boy has a time from Kempton that would I've it place claims but that is a different surface, Compas Scoobie has its best time from 2017 which would make it my 2nd top rated but hasn't been anywhere need that level since but never say never and could make the frame, Lucky Lodge is well weighted on its best 2017 time but has been about 10lbs below that so far this year and its best has been in a lower class race than this so making the frame may be the best it can achieve but my top rated is THE LACEMAKER 12/1 who can track the leaders or be held up in its races and from stall 2 it should be able to get a good early position from which to attack and its trainer has a decent 16% win rate at this course and the apprentices 5lb claim could tip things further into its favour.

The Lacemaker 14/1 2nd (Bloody unlucky not to have EW double come up today) + EX £19.50



Wednesday, 17 October 2018

6:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (17th October)

Newcastle racing tips
NEWCASTLE 6.15 

In this race there's not enough data for me to write about each horse individually, Me Before You has a time on good to firm going which would make it competitive if it can repeat that level here, my top rated on course and distance is the topweight Zebulon who did its best time earlier this year but hasn't run well on its last four races, Ancient Astronaute has a time recorded at Wolverhampton which would give it a chance to make the frame here on its debut at this course my selection has to be ROCKLEY POINT 8/1 who did a time at Wolverhampton in 2017 which would see it winning this race quite cosily and its been in good form lately with a win and a second place in its last two runs and has every chance to get another win under its belt in this race.

Rockley Point 8/1 7th 

Monday, 15 October 2018

5:45 Kempton Racing Tips (16th October)

Free racing tips
KEMPTON 5.45 

POPPY IN THE WIND hasn't any surface form and may not like it plus the fact it looks a better horse over a shorter trip so I would look to lay it. 

PRECIOUS PLUM hasn't any course form and finds it a bit too far producing slow times at the distance, a lay in my opinion 

SHOWMETHEWAYAVRILO did its best c/d time in 2017 has led before and even then it would struggle to win this race another lay in my eyes 

AVON GREEN has had 2 c/d races and timewise its been lacking mainly because it looks as though a shorter trip suits it better another I will lay 

MAJORETTE is 1 of 3 known front-runners in this race but isn't in my top 4 ratings which makes it a lay in my opinion. 

SECRET AGENT is just outside my top 4 and is a much better prospect over shorter distances so another to lay if of value. 

TROTTER 3rd on my figures using a 2017 time but hasn't any recent runs over this c/d so could make the frame if at its best 

JEOPARDY JOHN comes out 4th best here despite being much better over a shorter distance but it is only 3 years old so could possibly make the frame if the early pace isn't too fast. 

MERCERS needs to improve quite a few spots at this distance which is too far for it in a true run race so another to lay. 

ASSASSINATE is my joint top rated using a time recorded this year, it can be held up or track the leaders but stall 12 isn't ideal. 

TWO SEAS a 3 year old that needs to improve timewise to be competitive here but I'm not sure it could improve enough to win but never say never. 

KINGSLEY KLARION my other joint top rated and the 3rd possible pacesetter but its gone 25 runs without winning which is a little off-putting. 

SUMMARY: I wouldn't normally put up a horse on a 25 losing run but in the make-up of the race it could lead from stall 4 and then *KINGSLEY KLARION 3/1 could prove hard to catch but dare I go with just the 1 selection in the circumstances but I can find negatives against his biggest dangers so I will go with 1 small wager but the price hopefully might drift a little higher.

* NR

5:45 Kempton Racing Tips (15th October)

Free Horse Racing Tips
KEMPTON 5.45 

A typical 5 furlong dash of 10 runners and half the field have been known to lead before, Defining Moment 12/1 is my joint 2nd top rated using a Lingfield time and could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast, Sandfrankskipsgo 10/1 is the other joint 2nd top rated, again using a Lingfield time and could be able to gain control of the rails and go the shortest way around the track but this ones best time came from 2017, my top rated Ask The Guru 9/2 is another front-runner is drawn in stall 3 so could contest the lead and only be 1 horse width wide but once again I'm having to use a 2017 time but it was over this c/d, so this race might be best left alone or dutching all 3 could be the answer. 

KEMPTON 8.45

At 1st glance this looks a tricky race but hopefully not that tricky to analyse, HUMAN NATURE 11/2 starts off as my 3rd top rated and has been in good form recently, its only had 1 run over this c/d but didn't record a speed figure, its best time came at Chelmsford this year and the 5lb claiming apprentice moves it to top spot, the trainer has a 15% win ratio with its older horses here and the apprentice has ridden a winner from only 2 rides for the stable, Rose Berry is now my 3rd top rated and this one can struggle at this distance if there's a fast early pace, my original top rated and now relegated to 2nd top by just 1lb is LIGHTNING CHARLIE 9/2 who is the only known natural front running type in the race and if leading here could be hard to catch and the jockey booked has a 17% win ratio for the stable. With my 2nd top rated being a front-runner and my top-rated being either held up or tracking the leaders, I will have to go with backing them both to cover the angles

Lightning Charlie 6/1 1st + F/C £32.26 + TRI £245.85
Human Nature 9/1 3rd

See Eric's Secret Tip here (WINNER)

Saturday, 13 October 2018

6:45 Chelmsford Racing Tips (13th October)

CHELMSFORD 6.45 Div-1 

BILLYOAKES 77 SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE 77 AGUEROO 76 

AGUEROO a hold-up type and has a chance of making the frame or more 

FLORA TRISTAN a 0-12 record is offputting and may need further to shine

BILLYOAKES versatile tactically, draw isn't ideal could make the frame or more 

ZORAWAR may need further and this surface may not be its favourite 

TURANGA LEELA well drawn for a possible pacesetter but maybe not best surface 

JUAN HORSEPOWER likes to track the leaders and joint 4th best on my figures 

CATHEADANS FURY looks as though further would suit it better, my joint 4th rating 

SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE likes to race prominently and stay on strongly at the finish 

BLISTERING DANCER is 0-24 on the all-weather tracks and may prefer a shorter trip 

SUMMARY: Its close between my top 3 and if BILLYOAKES 6/1 had been drawn better it would have been my sole selection and if it leads here it could win but I will dutch all 3 to cover a hold up horse, AGUEROO 4/1 and one that races prominently without leading, SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE 7/2, not great prices but possible to dutch for a profit. 

Agueroo 4/1 5th
Spirit Of Zebedee 4/1 8th
Billyoakes 25/1 9th 

CHELMSFORD 7.15 Div-2 

DOLLAR VALUE 75 KODICAT 72 DREAMBOAT ANNIE 66 

DREAMBOAT ANNIE a possible pacesetter but stall 8 isn't ideal 

KODICAT versatile sort who can lead and drawn stall 1 so a good chance here 

DOLLAR VALUE likes to track leaders and top because of 3lb claimer riding 

LETHAL ANGEL a 12 run maiden who looks to need further to show its worth 

JACK NEVISON only slow times over c/d and may want a longer distance to shine 

GULLANDS ROCK slowish time from 2016 and nothing much recently 

ALKASHAAF a 2016 time would make it competitive here but nothing much recently 

DIVINE CALL only slow times recently but a 2016 time would put it top here 

AVENGING RED 0-12 so far and may need further to show improvement 

SUMMARY: The 3 topweights have the best recent times and I would look to dutch them if there's any value but I've also got 2 horses that would enter my calculations if I used their 2016 times and it's very unlikely there will be any value in dutching 5 runners in a 9 runner race.

Friday, 12 October 2018

6:45 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (12th October)

Wolverhampton racing tips
WOLVERHAMPTON 12-10 

NAUTICAL HAVEN is 0-8 on the all-weather tracks but hasn't run on this surface and distance but looks as though further would suit it better so not for me. 

BROADHAVEN HONEY is my 3rd top rated but that is using a 2017 time, it is a possible pacesetter but needs to bounce back to form so not for me at 7/2 I would lay it. 

SKY GYPSY has led before but as it looks as though further suits it better it might not be able to lead here so another that's not for me, 13/2 looks a decent price to lay it at. 

DANEHILL DESERT hasn't any runs on this surface and distance but a decent time from its turf form means I cannot discard it but neither could I back it as there's very little form to work with. 

SWENDAB is a versatile type with its tactics but is only 5th on my figures and may struggle to get a clear run in the early stages from stall 4 in the make-up of this race. 

*OUR MAN IN HAVANA another front-runner and my top-rated its recent form looks as though it's being primed for a tilt on the all-weather and now down to its favoured distance. 

ANOTHER ANGEL hasn't any course form but is 3rd best using a Newcastle time stall 3 isn't ideal in this particular race but will be staying on at the finish and could make the frame. 

ASTROPHYSICS also has no course form but is 2lb better on Newcastle times and my 2nd top rated but its been drawn widest of all but could make the frame. 

TEEPEE TIME has only produced slow times for quite a while now and this isn't its favoured surface so it looks a lay to me at 10/1.

CARLOVIAN another with slow recent times and it finds 6 furlongs too short so may get outpaced here and then struggle so another one to lay at 8/1 

RED STRIPES is a front-running type and has the plum draw in stall 1 so could gain control of the rails, it's my 4th top rated using a 2018 time so could hold on to at least make the frame 

SUMMARY: Red Stripes could be dangerous against the rails if allowed to set its own pace and may make the frame, my 2nd and 3rd top rated horses both did their best times at Newcastle so may not handle the bend as well as others but either or both could make the frame but if OUR MAN IN HAVANA 20/1 repeats its best time it would win cosily here and the price means I will have an each way wager but I will probably have a covering bet on RED STRIPES 13/2 as it could go well from the prime draw against the rails.

* NR
Red Stripes 7/1 3rd

Tuesday, 9 October 2018

8:10 Kempton Racing Tips (10th October)

Free Horse Racing Tips 2018
KEMPTON 8.10 

Only 7 runners and my top 2 are quite a few spots ahead of the 3rd top rated, Merhoob my 4th top rated looks the most likely pacesetter but I doubt it will stay there nearing the finish, Gulliver is 3rd top on a 2017 time but hasn't run here this year, I've got Cenotaph as my 2nd top rated using a Chelmsford time and looks poor value at even money, my top rated is the 3 year old BREATHLESS TIMES 7/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and could have the 1st crack at the leader and then stay on the stronger. 

Breathless Times 7/2 3rd

KEMPTON 8.40

There's 3 in the race that could try to lead here and the topweight Harrison Stickle could be a big danger if getting to the front, this will be its 1st all-weather race and has a fast time on g/f going on turf so has to be feared, Duke Cosimo is top rated using a time from Chelmsford this year but its times here have been on the slow side so how good it will run here I'm not really sure, Pushkin Museum has a fast time from Wolverhampton abut only slow times on this surface, then Babyfact has a decent time from Wolverhampton but hasn't run here before so could be a danger, Kingsley Klarion has a fast Chelmsford time in 2017 but another with slow time over this c/d, I've named 5 horses above and I think the winner ought to be one of them but I'm not really sure which one but if pushed I would have a small wager on Duke Cosimo but at 3/1 its not much value and I will only bet if it drifts to 5/1 or bigger.

1:20 Brighton Racing Tips (9th October)

Brighton Horse Racing
BRIGHTON 1.20 (8.1) 

ARCHIMEDES 88 ASK THE GURU 87 ESSAKA 86

As you can see its very tight at the top of my ratings and any of the 3 could win, looking at the trainer/jockey stats for Archimedes it doesn't look great, the trainer is 0-3 here and the jockey is 0-29 for the stable and its best time was recorded in 2017 and been nowhere near that level so far this year plus stall 10 is far from ideal, ASK THE GURU 15/2 is a possible front runner and could set the pace from stall 2 and could then be hard to catch but ESSAKA 5/1 ought to be staying on strongly at the finish, the trainer has an 18% win rate here and the jockey has a 21% win rate for this stable both pointers to the connections expecting a big run here but I will go with backing both selections to cover the angles. 

Ask The Guru 20/1 4th
Essaka 8/1 5th

LEICESTER 3.20 (8.5) 

GRACIOUS JOHN 111 ENCORE D’OR 104 MIRZA 104 

Encore D’or should be staying on strongly at the finish but maybe not quickly enough to win this race unless my top 2 falter, MIRZA 14/1 is the one I expect to set the pace here and could then be hard to catch but i have got GRACIOUS JOHN 15/2 rated higher but this ones best time was recorded at Haydock and that time is now looking a bit of a fluke time but I will go with backing the 2 selections to cover the angles. 

Mirza 16/1 2nd
Gracious John 15/2 7th

CATTERICK 4.10 (7.7) 

SPIRIT OF WEDZA 97 PRESTBURY PARK 92 VALLARTA 82

I've got Vallarta as my 3rd top rated but I have gone back to 2017 to find that rating, the 3-year-old PRESTBURY PARK 10/1 is a possible pacesetter and could be dangerous if getting to the front but I've got SPIRIT OF WEDZA 6/1 at the top on my figures and once again I will go with 2 selections to cover the angles. 

Spirit Of Wedza 6/1 1st
Prestbury Park 20/1 3rd  

NEWCASTLE 7.15 (Div1)

MANSHOOD 79 BAHANGO 79 LORD OF THE GLEN 74 

My 3 top rated are all possible pacesetters and that will make sure the early pace will be fast which will play into the hands of the strong finishing Pea Shooter if they go off too fast but both MANSHOOD 10/1 and BAHANGO 25/1 could win if they run to their best so again I will be backing the 2 selections each way at the prices available. 

Manshood 10/1 9th 
Bahango 100/1 Unp

NEWCASTLE 7.45 (Div2)

TYLERY WONDER 91 ZAMJAR 90 SUWAAN 77 

In this division I've got Suwaan in 3rd spot and this one ought to be staying on at the finish, OUTRAGE 5/1 my 2nd top rated is a likely pacesetter in this race and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch but my top rated TYLERY WONDER 12/1 is a versatile type which includes being able to lead but would need to spring back to form so I will back both just in case my top rated isn't back to its best.

Outrage 5/1 1st 
Tylery Wonder 16/1 9th