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Monday, 1 June 2020

2:10 Kempton Racing Tips (Tuesday 2nd June)

KEMPTON 2.10 

This is a tricky looking race even with only ten runners, on my speed figure side of things, Jack The Truth, Charming Kid, Mercenary Rose, and Benny And The Jets are all closely matched with only six spots between them, I will look to lay (Just That Lord who has shown very little compared to 2018 and earlier - Lihou who has shown very little timewise and the jockey doesn't look a positive booking) 

Grandfather Tom is one of the five that have been known to lead and it does have the plum stall one draw but would need to improve to lead all the way even if it did manage to get to the front, Jack The Truth is another possible pacesetter and is housed in stall six, Charming Kid should be trying to stay on strongly at the finish but would need to produce its best to make the frame in this race but this 4year old could still improve a little, my money will be riding on MERCENARY ROSE11/2 who is another possible pacesetter, the stall 9 draw isn't ideal but if getting to the front it could prove very hard to catch. 

NEWCASTLE 2.30

This is a class 2 race but 8 of the 12 runners have no form over this c/d and some haven't even run on the AW before so they could be unseen dangers so my stakes will definitely be kept on the low side of normal, in many ways there are 7 horses that I could look to lay for various reasons, Glen Shiel may need further, Justanotherbottle maybe too far for it, Vintage Brut may prefer a slower surface, Growl another who likes slow surfaces, Camacho Chief may be better over shorter trips, Cold Store could need a slower surface to shine and Admiralty may need further before it shows its true worth, Mubakker has very good connections and will I expect be the favourite but the jockey hasnt got a great record on the stables older horses but it could possibly be a late developer so I couldn't back or lay this horse, Hyperfocus is a c/d winner so cannot be discounted but I will be having a punt on COSMIC LAW 8/1 but i will be keeping my stakes low as this ones stable has two other runners in the race and it could be a non-trier but if on its game it could be the value call in the race.

Sunday, 31 May 2020

3:20 Newcastle - Eric's Back - Backs & Lay Bets (Monday)

NEWCASTLE 3.20

The first sprint for what seems like bloody ages and I cannot narrow it down to a single horse conclusion but I do think I can narrow it down to a couple. 

I have found four horses that I will be looking to lay and I will put my reasoning for each lay and will try do so in the future as long as I have the time:

(Yousini may need a longer trip to shine- Tenax slow times and poor jockey booking who is 0-25 on the stables older horses - True Blue Moon who looks better over 5 furlongs - I Am A Dreamer could lead if allowed to set its own slower pace but I doubt it will get its own way here) 

I could quite easily have added Lincoln Park to the list who is making its AW debut...

BRIAN THE SNAIL 15/2 recorded the fastest c/d time in 2019 where the going was described as on the slow side of standard but in the make-up of this race stall 2 might not be ideal but I will be backing this one to some degree as it has won before after a break. 

Northgate Lad would have been another to consider as a possible winner if it could recapture its 2018 form but its 2 runs since then have been relatively poor and that's enough to put me off, also stall 1 might not be ideal but this pair being drawn alongside each other could see them both geeing each other along.

The bottom-weight WILD EDRIC 11/1 is a possible pacesetter in this race and I do think those drawn high do sometimes have an advantage so stall 12 could tip things in its favour and just maybe it could lead all the way and at the price might be worth an each-way wager. 

I will be backing both of them to some degree but most likely in favour of my top-rated and relying on the lays to make sure of coming out on top but after the layoff, my stakes will be kept on the low side of things. 

Brian The Snail 15/2 1st 
Wild Edric 11/1 3rd 

Lay bets: Yousini +1pts, Tenax +1pts, True Blue Moon +1pt & I Am A Dreamer +1pt 

Total: 13.25pts 

 

NEWCASTLE 4.30

This looks a decent class 4 dash and another race where I can find a few that I will be looking to lay:

(Puchita looks to want further to show its best - Indian Sounds another that may need further- Quanah maybe better in a lower class race and the jockey is 0-18 for the stable - Queen Of Kalahari who might want further or a slower surface at this distance as its only distance win was on soft ground at Leicester)

If my selection doesn't produce its best here then both Requinto Dawn 10/1 and Gorgeous General 14/1 could be ones that might prosper especially the former who is one of only two known front running types and could be hard to catch if fully tuned up after the break, while the latter has good trainer and jockey stats to back up the chances of this one. 

Fox Hill is the other possible pacesetter and could be a danger from the front but this one would need to improve on what its shown so far as its win at this distance on good to firm going was a fairly slow run affair. 

My main bet in this race will be BE PROUD 9/2 who ran well when finishing second on its last run and hopefully the trainer has kept it fully tuned up for this race and booked jockey does have good stats when riding for this stable so I'm hoping that's a positive omen to its chances.

Be Proud 9/2 5th 

Lay bets: Puchita +1pt, Indian Sounds +1pt, Quanah +1pt & Queen Of Kalahari -10pts

Total: - 8pts 

Total on the day: +5.25pts


Tuesday, 26 May 2020

A LOGICAL LAY THE FAVOURITE SYSTEM

We all know that favourites on average win around 33% of all races - year in and year out. 

So if you laid all favourites you would win in 2 out of every 3 races. 

That is a good starting point, but not really good enough to make it worthwhile following blindly. 

If we concentrate on handicaps only and the percentage of winning favourites drops to about 24%, so now laying these favourites you win 3 out of 4 times. Yes, that is better, but I think we still need to find some improvement. 

We now come to the final stages and a few qualifying rules. We have to use The Racing Post, and in the betting forecast for every handicap race, we look at the forecast price of the favourite. 

If it is 2-1 up to 7-2 we note that favourite down and ignore all the other favourites priced outside that range as they are discarded. 

We now look more closely at the ones noted down, if any. 

First, we look at the RPR. If it is top rated with the black spot, either on its own or jointly, then we ignore it.

If it still qualifies, we now look to see if it is tipped by either Spotlight or Postdata. 

If it is tipped by either one of them then that disqualifies it and it is discarded. 

BINGO if it is not tipped by either, then we have a horse to lay.

Thursday, 21 May 2020

Online slots...What’s the point?

We’ve still got time to wait before the world kicks back into action and we can get stuck-in to some “proper” betting. 

In the meantime, I keep seeing loads of people are getting into online casino games to pass the time and to scratch their itch to have a little flutter. 

Now I can understand those people who spend hours, days, and years trying to perfect their methods of beating the house at blackjack. That’s a game where your odds are best - if you know what you’re doing. 

I don’t! 

Roulette looks pretty, and you can make a small stake last a long time thanks to options like betting on red vs black or odds vs evens. But the gambling permutations across the table are complicated and clunky, and there’s not enough time between spins to have a good think about the odds. It’s a distraction for a bit, but nothing more. 

And then there are online casino games like slots… 

Oh dear. No skill at all, just dump your cash and pull the handle or press the button. Couldn’t be more boring. 

Or so I thought before I played some recently.

I have an acquaintance called Dave Monk who runs a casino review site but who is a self-confessed lover of slot machine games. He writes up all the slots descriptions on his site. He gave me a few links to try some of the modern digital slot machines. 

Guess what? I had a load of fun. Here’s why. 

Most of the modern online slots accept bets as low as £0.10. That means you can decide to have a tenner’s worth of fun and get 100 chances even if you win nothing at all. If you do win, but not a lot, then up the bet with the “free” money. 

It brought back great memories from years ago about trying to guess when the fruit machine was going to pay out because there hadn’t been a big win for a while, so the odds are in your favour. Look, it’s pure chance, of course, but as a relaxing break from systems and analysis? Great fun. 

The choice these days is unbelievable. There are literally thousands of them. A lot of them look amazing, sound amazing and some are even licensed versions linked to bands, movies or TV shows. There is literally something for everyone - from simple games that have reels and fruit symbols to whacky themed slots that have no resemblance to the machine you used to play in the pub whatsoever - but turn out to still be a slot machine underneath.

These are high quality “experiences” - it’s not like going to a one-armed bandit arcade in Skegness! One good thing, though - they all let you turn off the music or sound effects if it’s a little too much for your personal taste. And they all work on your phone! Of course, I’d never recommend gambling on the loo, but you can if you like... 

Some of the slots available these days have amazing mini-games and sub-games as part of their play that really gets you into it as a “game” rather than a simple bet. Before I knew it, I’d spend an hour having a good time and spending hardly anything. 

So, what’s the point of online slots? I’ll tell you. 

A low-cost way to have a good time and scratch a gambling itch a little bit until the world gets back to something like normal. 

Sounds good to me.

Wednesday, 20 May 2020

The Day I Moved on from my Gambling Initiation

Do you still bet with a traditional bookie? 

Tell me the truth, do you really make a profit from gambling? 

Most reply: ''I don’t do too bad'', while others say ''I've done my nuts.''

Obviously, I believe the person who told me he has done his nuts because that's what bookmakers thrive upon. It's a sure thing most punters start off in that position. I started off betting on a Saturday afternoon while having a few beers with my mates. 

Nowadays that is a definite no-no in my eyes. 

Drinking and betting is a toxic mix. Even a pint or two can fuddle the mind. The more you get tanked up the worse it becomes.

I used to be a heavy drinker. I'd go out on a Saturday afternoon - worse still the pub was next door to the bookies. I'd watch the racing on the TV while popping back and forth between the two. 

I'd venture home at teatime - winning or losing. If you asked me how much money I won or lost I couldn't have given you a true answer. 

Eventually, I got fed up with the losing weeks. Instead, I would sort my bets out before I started drinking and stuck to the races I had an interest (I'd written them down). 

Most weeks it worked. I didn't go home skint. Maybe I was just lucky or maybe I had a little bit of something that makes me see past the obvious information. 

Don't get me wrong, most weeks I wasn't winning a fortune. I wasn't betting very high stakes. I'd make a profit or a small loss. Most of the time it paid for my beer and something to eat on the way home. 

I moved on from my gambling initiation...

Those people I saw in the bookies still bet the same old way as they did all those years ago.

If I ask them why they keep betting and losing they say: ''I bet for fun!'' 

Pardon me. For the life of me, I cannot see how losing money that you have worked hard for all week can be fun. 

WINNING IS FUN. 

Most punters pick winners. Quite a few of them would make a profit if they used any method of money management. However, they just seem to bet according to the money they have got in their wallet. 

I have given up trying to educate people how, with a little bit of work, they could stop losing their hard-earned cash. It's fair to say I can't make every one of them a winner but I could point them in the right direction.

Here's the easiest way to tell if you are winning or losing. If the bookie still takes your bets - without any restriction - you are losing. 

Nowadays, I rarely bet in the bookies.  In fact, I only go into the bookies if there are people there to have a chat. It makes an enjoyable afternoon. 

These days, I place my bets online, before I go out. I can sit back in the bookies and enjoy the company and the racing, cheer home their horses. 

I like to see people win money and enjoy themselves. It's one of the reasons I post my thoughts freely every day. 

My blog is updated each day with my selections - backs or lays. As you may know, I am a sprint-race specialist. It's my niche. If someone asks my opinion while in the bookies or what I fancy this is my reply: ''Nothing much!” 

Why?

If they were really interested they would have looked on my website Eric Winner. This is the truth of the matter, in most cases, they are only hoping my thoughts align with their thinking. 

Here's a little insight for newbie gamblers. 

Please don't go into the bookies and read the Racing Post pinned to the wall and think you are properly informed about any given horses' chances. 

The bookies want you to use the limited information on offer because you cannot have an informed opinion.  

Don't forget, the bookies' price up each horse so in the long run, they cannot fail to make money. You need to know more. And, in my opinion, that comes from knowing your niche and selective betting.

If you are one of the few that win decent money on a regular basis your account will be limited or closed. Contrary to belief, most bookies like it when you back a winner because they know you will be coming back for more. However, this is the score... 

They ban consistent winners! 

Why be restricted by bookmakers? Betting exchanges usually give bigger prices and they will not ban you however much you win. 

I am surprised there are any punters still using the high street bookies. The sad fact is that bookies are more interested in the four “slot” machines they have in each shop. They fleece punters knowing long term they cannot win. 

Those pesky machines have caused a lot of hurt to so many people who have become addicted to playing them.

Author: Eric Winner

Monday, 18 May 2020

Ready for the Off...

Horse racing is set to resume on the 1st of June. 

It's good news for the racing industry, bookmakers and punters alike. In fact, it is good news even for those who never bet because the sight of one aspect of sporting normality has to bring joy to even those who often contend its negatives. 

Racing will be different. With regard to the welfare of those who work for stables. Perhaps the first time human welfare is put before horse welfare. They should all be put on an equal footing, hey. 

Eric is looking forward to the new season. I know I am looking forward to the start of the two-year-old season. 

I must admit I have a lot of unanswered questions of how things will work with the restricted meeting, numbers of horses contending each race, and the implications of these factors on horse owners - the lifeblood of the horse racing industry. 

Without happy, and financially sounds owners there could be troubles ahead. I'm sure there will be troubles ahead for all. 

However, life, even in the hardest times, is about building on the positives. And the resumption of racing is the biggest positive we have to hang on to at this perilous time. 

I hope the Coronavirus can be checked with the easing of the lockdown. It would be a bitter blow if racing was to start and then stop. Even worse if it doesn't start at all. 

I will keep positive. 

Anyway, we are less than two weeks away from the first meeting at Newcastle on the 1st of June. 

Good luck to all.

Monday, 11 May 2020

Systems: A Simple Racing Post Method to Make Your Betting Pay

A SIMPLE RACING POST METHOD 

A method I came across with just 5 simple rules that can be done using the Racing Post. 

Rule 1> only bet in races with between 8 and 13 runners and it didn't say to avoid certain types of races so I assume you can use any race as long as the number of runners fits the rule. 

Rule 2> it must be a spot horse in the Racing Post. 

Rule 3> it must have won its last race, there was nothing in the rules saying there were any exceptions but I would look to make sure it likes the distance and can handle the going. 

Rule 4> it must be in the first 3 in the betting 

Rule 5> it must be at least priced 2/1. 

The author claims it makes a profit and I can see some logic in the method, what the prices will be like I don't know but it makes me think in most cases you will be backing the favourite so it is not going to be a get rich quick method so as usual please do some research of your own before betting with your own money as I make no claims that it does work long term.

Monday, 4 May 2020

Mathematical Dutching

Yes, I do use dutching on my sprint races if I cannot narrow my selections down to one horse. I would rather lay other horses in the race for a larger stake in total than my win bet so if one of the dangers wins I still make a profit

When started posting this method in January it made 145.66 points profit from just the 43 days where I posted my selections. 

Posting this method in January it made 145.66 points profit from just the 43 days. 

This method is all about dutching a given number of horses in the same race all depending upon the price of the favourite. I can see the logic in this method as it entails backing multiple horses so that whichever wins you either break even or make a profit. You do not bet in any race where the favourite is less than 3.00 or 2/1 in old money. 

If the favourite is priced between 3.00 and 4.00 you back the first two horses in the betting 4.01..5.00 you dutch 3 horses... 5.01...6.00 4 horses….6.01..7.00 5 horses...7.01...8.00 6 horses...8.01...9.00 7 horses.

As the favourites win roughly 33% of all races, the 2nd favourite wins 20% and the 3rd favourite 14% so even dutching just 3 horses you should find the winner in 2 out of every 3 races. 

You would either break even or a small profit if the favourite wins but if the 3rd favourite wins at say 6.00 you make a bigger profit and those bigger priced horses should help cover your losses from the races where an outsider wins. 

Races to avoid according to the method said:


  • No maiden races. 
  • No apprentice jockey races. 
  • No handicaps with 16 runners or more. 


I have done no research myself into this method but it may be of use to someone who hasn't got the time to study form or stats. 

This method hasn't been tested beyond the original research. It is advisable to do your own research before backing with your money.



Saturday, 2 May 2020

Not Sitting Still with these Little Gems

The other day, Jason mentioned about me not sitting on my laurels and taking a rest. 

I love looking at other people's ideas and methods and if they make sense then I will take note of them. First, when I get time, assess its potential. Secondly, look to improve it. 

I've posted a few ideas while racing has been sidelined due to the Coronavirus pandemic.  Believe it or not, I've got another nine or ten ideas/methods worth investigating. 

The downfall of many people is looking for the holy grail and instant big profits. I have heard people say:

''It doesn't exist!'' 

Therefore, most people are brainwashed into thinking it's impossible. 

Don't let that stop you looking. Ignore people. Why? “There is gold out there in them hills” 

Most people don't even bother looking so they are missing out. Perhaps it's just me who enjoys trawling through other people's detritus. The one I investigated first is showing great potential. When finished, I will move on to the next method on the list. 

I'm hoping to use this with a bot so I'll have plenty of time to look at new ideas waiting to be unearthed. 

Anyway, the message I'm trying to get across is quite simple: ''Ignor what you have been told!'' 

Start doing your own research.

Don't sit around bored waiting for racing or football to start up again. 

Go online and type: ''Winning betting methods'' and you will find thousands of possibilities. 

You will find plenty of mud but if you dig deep and long enough you just might uncover your own little gem. 

HAPPY HUNTING.

Author: Eric Winner