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Friday, 27 March 2020

Time's Too Short for the Everyday Punter

There are many reasons why people fail to make their betting pay.  

Over the years I've known many punters who still bet in the same way. For example, they bet for fun, don't worry about losing, as all hobbies cost money. That's true. But why be content with losing money when with a few pointers you can improve your bank balance? 

I think the main reason why people fail to make their betting pay is due to a lack of time to study properly. 

Readers will know I specialise within sprint racing. In fact, I have a wealth of data to help understand this niche but it still takes me well over an hour to analyse each and every race. Without the stored data, it would double the time, perhaps, maybe, even more. 

Here's the problem for Joe Blogs who loves his racing. 

After a hard day at work, who has got the spare time or inclination to assess many races and do a thorough job? 

Here are a few pointers to make your betting pay: 

The first thing I would suggest is that you need to narrow your attention to an area of racing that either appeals to you or most fun. I've seen many so-called tipsters giving tips for every race! This always makes me smile because I know for certain they haven't analysed each race thoroughly. Yes, they will find winners. That isn't hard to do. But, I doubt they make a profit if you backed all of their selections. 

I cannot tell or even suggest what area of racing you should focus but nobody can know enough about all aspects of racing: from Epsom's five-furlong dash (the fastest racecourse) to the Grand National, a stamina-sapping grind over four miles plus. 

My friend Jason only bets on 2yo races (I haven't a clue). One friend who has a fulltime job is Mick. He only bets in Listed and Group class races.  He's quite happy having just a few big bets during the year. 

Everyone has their own ideas. 

The most important piece of advice I was ever given is this...

80% of races are won by 20% of the horses!

So it makes sense to back horses that have a decent win to run ratio. Some horses win infrequently during their racing career. 

So what do you need to be looking for? Those horses that have the inbuilt ability to win multiple times. 

Saying all this, I still have to admit it's not easy to make a long term profit without a lot of time spent doing the groundwork. There will be long days trying to work between races. Evenings spent updating records - to keep ahead of the game. 

I often work more hours on my sprints than a full-time job. The difference is that gamblers are not guaranteed a wage at the end of the day, week or year. 

All I can say is this: “The harder I work the luckier I become.” 

So work hard! 

There's no other way. I know we are all searching for the easy way to make good money. But, in truth, it doesn't exist. Remember the saying: “Fail to prepare, prepare to fail” 

It's oh so true!

Specialise in one area of racing. You don't have to be a genius - just know a little more than the average punter. 

Learn this lesson. Spreading yourself too thinly will only lead to disaster.

Tuesday, 24 March 2020

Can Backing Favourites of a Certain Price Really Show a Profit?


I hope you enjoyed the football blog post about the under 3.5 goals market?

How about making your horse racing pay with this magic system?

Read more.

I'm not one to sit idle when there is gold in those hills. 

I love maths - stats are my thing. 

Those who follow Eric Winner know I started using bets and lays in my recent sprint analysis. It's made over 140 points profit (to a level stake). True, some of the lay bets have been at big prices, but we made some serious money. 

If a 50/1 winner had been laid, it would make a big hole in my bank. (I think the biggest losing lay was priced 15/2). 

I was confident those big priced horses had virtually no chance of winning. 

So in real terms, they are easy money! 

The combination of win bets and lays has worked very well and a real opportunity to make your betting pay. I'm sure you would agree, one-hundred-plus-points profit in less than three months is no small change. 

A level stake of £7.15 per bet would have seen you win over £1,000. 

I've been busy working on a new system that I'm sure you will find interesting.  

Sprint racing has seen exceptional profits but I'm not one to rest on my laurels. 

However, the holy grail is finding a system where I can place either a bet or a lay and forget it. (In theory, this would need the use of a bot on betting exchanges). 


Because I don't want to be glued to my laptop for unending hours.  

I have finished looking at the past results for all racing. That includes the All-Weather, Turf and National Hunt.

This research focused on favourites! 

This idea is to back each favourite - increasing your stake to cover previous losses. Some might say it is a foolhardy method. It is a variant of the well-known Martingale system where you double your stake after each losing bet. 

In theory, the Martingale system works if you have a big enough betting bank. However, a losing streak - stretching into double figures - would bust most punters. If you were backing the favourite it is a fact (according to statistics) that roughly one in three wins. 

If a favourite won every third race it would be easy to make substantial profits. However, betting is by its nature unpredictable. This system would be plagued by long losing runs and an odds-on winner at the end of a sequence of losers you would see you fail to cover what could be a colossal outlay. 

The work is never done. 

I've put in many hours of study assessing the stats for winning favourites over the last two months (January and February) plus seventeen days of March. Sadly Coronavirus put pay to the rest of that month.  

So what's the system?

I had the idea of betting on every favourite priced even money (1/1) or greater. However, I was very surprised to find this approach threw up two losing streaks of fourteen races and one losing streak of sixteen (scary stuff). In addition, several other losing streaks of at least seven horses. 

I am sure it is possible to make this method pay but it would be very volatile medium with long losing runs. It would afford big payouts when you hit a good priced winning favourite but, perhaps, not for everyone and for that reason I will spend my time looking into new ideas to make a profit. 

Monday, 23 March 2020

Eric Winner's Footy Method to Make Your Betting Pay


Jason, who runs my Ericwinner webpage for me, mentioned about me working just as hard behind the scenes all the time. 

He is not wrong!

I have over four and half thousand lines of data for horses and that is just for the All-Weather tracks and even then it takes me about an hour and a half to analyse an average twelve runner handicap. 

So on a day with several races, I have many hours of form to get through. When racing is finished, I have got to input all the new data and work out my unique speed figures. It leaves very little time for anything else. 

Saying all that I would rather be busy than idle and I rarely spend any of my spare time on anything other than looking through videos online about horse racing or football. 

For instance, the Premiership introduced Video Assistant Referee - V.A.R. 

I thought it would reduce the number of goals scored per game. 

In early October, I started analysing the past results - all four leagues. I looked at the goals scored feature on the betting exchanges where you can back or lay many markets on over or under x amount of goals scored per game. 

I quickly realised that the 2.5 goals market was too volatile and very hard to predict and with my thinking of there being fewer goals. 

I moved on to the under 3.5 goals per game. 

The results for the lower leagues were very much hit and miss as I quite expected, although most weekends I'd make a small profit. I did say most, as I am not sure if it would be viable for the whole season. 

The Premiership was looking quite promising. My analysis up until mid-October looked as though it could show a profit. However, without a clue as to what the average prices would be it was not a given. 

The results from then up till just postponement of football using £100 stakes per game made a profit of over £2,700. 

It isn’t a great Return On Investment (R.O.I.). Every weekend, you'd be laying out £1,000. However, a profit is a profit and it all adds up over time. 

Will the markets give me the same edge next season? I am not sure! When punters analyse the results for this season the odds may well be re-adjusted. 

Next season I will monitor the games to assess whether it will be wise to start betting again.

Saturday, 21 March 2020

Why Did You're Horse Lose?

I guess you have many and varied reasons why your horse lost.

The majority of times your horse lost because, sadly, it wasn't good enough. In that sense, you need to read the form, follow a website like Eric Winner or phone a friend. 

However, especially when it comes to sprint racing you don't need much to go wrong for you to have a hard-luck story. A slow start. Bumped. And the classic General Bunching!!! That always leads to Major Trouble!!!! (Sorry for my humour).

I guess we all have a tale to tell about a winner that should have been. This may be the case on the jumps more than the flat. 

I'm trying to remember a few strange situations for why horses lost when they should have won or just those plain unlucky. 

As a regular to Great Yarmouth, I've been to many horse racing meetings. There is nothing better than being on a track at a coastal resort. There is plenty to do. Have a day at the races, wander along the front, stop at a nice restaurant and even venture to the casino in the evening if you fancy winning or losing more. If you take your racing ticket to the casino you even get a free alcoholic drink and free £5 match bet (just to get you through the door). Anyway, you could do all those things or have sensory overload from all the tat down Regent Street. I mean, if you are desperate, you can go watch Jim Davidson at the Brittania Pier. (That's an in-joke if you come from March, Cambridgeshire and frequent the GER Working Man's Club).

Anyway, enough about all that. 

Back to horse racing...

One of the strangest reasons a horse ever lost could be this. 

I keep thinking this happened at Great Yarmouth, Brighton or Bath. I know it was a coastal track because that's where you find seagulls flying high in a beautiful blue sky. 

You may be thinking...what has a seagull got to do with horseracing, winners, loser and hard-luck stories?

I know it was a two-year-old horse race. Well, the given horse had every chance of winning, up with the lead, when startled it lost every chance, when, of all things, it was spooked by a dead seagull on the track!

Friday, 20 March 2020

I Can't Bet on the Horses... (So What Now?)

UK gamblers are twiddling their thumbs. The Coronavirus has stamped on our betting slip and scuffed it into the dirt. It has no respect. 

Will that stop us? 


Even if we cannot bet on the horses it doesn't mean the interest, love, and hope to find winners stop. Far from it. When you cannot bet you simply invest that time and effort to make your betting pay when the horse racing springs back into life. 

I know Eric works harder behind the scenes than he does on this website. I am always chatting with him via Facebook and we have lots of conversations about horse racing, tips, and how to improve and build upon the success we have seen over the years. 

A few readers may know that I help promote Eric Winner but run a number of other websites but dedicated to two-year-old horse racing. Even after 30-years of study, there is still plenty to work on and like the grumpy teacher who says: ''Little Johnny must try harder!''

I really don't need anyone to tell me to try harder because I appreciate that the foundation goes much deeper than what is seen on the surface. Even after all these years, I am surprised by what can be discovered with a little bit of work. The point of interest and knowledge is that you are three-quarters closer to understanding where the golden nuggets hide. 

The best gold miner isn't the one who digs the deepest hole. It is the one who knows where to dig. He may have been researching this fact for 50-years but you only see him digging for one month. You hear in the newspapers that a blind man found the biggest gold nugget in the world. 

How is it possible?

A blind man!

But he could see, understand and appreciate his expertise because his knowledge was strong. 

So when the horse racing stops for a duration work to know even more. So when the time is right you can make up for the lost time and fill your pockets with gold.

Wednesday, 18 March 2020

Eric's Biggest Baddest Winners & Incredible Stats

So we have to struggle with the Coronavirus. 

Horseracing has all but stopped. Irish racing carries on behind closed doors. In so many ways there is uncertainty but racing and tipping winners are all about uncertainty until that winner flies in and you hear those words: ''Weighed in''.

Eric Winner may have to wait until later in the season to see horse racing resume and those winners but it doesn't stop us from appreciating the success of this brilliant website. How many blogs do you know that achieved over 140 points profit since mid-January 2020. In a matter of two months or so Eric showed his readers what could be achieved by following his tips and lay bets. The combination of the two has been a revelation. I have never heard of a racing blog coming close to such profits and I'm sure readers can't wait for his return. 

Eric Winner started back in May 2014

It has been a very successful platform with almost 900,000 pageviews. The most page views in one month came in 2016 when March saw over 22,000. 

Other record months included

March 2015 20,000+ 

July 2015 20,000+ 

January 2019 20,000+ 

The most viewed blog post achieved over 2,000 pageviews. 

When it comes to winners, Eric has had many. But we aren't just talking short-priced winners. Truth be known, the first winner Eric tipped was seen on the 20th of February 2014. It was the 3:30 Lingfield - Seamster 2/1 won by half a length

If you thought Eric Winner was going to be about backing the favourite you were wrong. Because I have never known any tipster to hit the bookies so hard with speculative bets and big-price winners. Quite incredible. 

Look at a few of these statistics:

19 winners priced  20/1+

Including an amazing 100/1 winner that was backed to 12/1

The combination of Eric's winning tips and lay bet losers have been a brilliant adaptation to the blog and I am sure readers have been thankful for all his hard work. 

Knowing Eric, he never stops improving his knowledge and angles to make his and your betting pay. 

There will be more articles post on Eric Winner even in times of the Coronavirus being a rude interruption to British horse racing and our sprinters. 

Thanks for your support.

Saturday, 14 March 2020

6:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips & Lay Bets (14th March)


THREE SAINTS BAY either needs a longer trip or a different surface, maybe both so one to lay. 

DEPUTISE could go well but maybe the frame is the best it can hope for.

KATHEEF is my 4th top-rated but is only 1 win from 6 races over this course and distance.

FIZZY FEET relatively slow times at this trip and may prefer a shorter distance so one to lay.

SECTRET VENTURE may need this run and also looks better over shorter trips so a lay.

ALSVINDER has the plum draw and likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly.

STORM OVER my 3rd top-rated could make the frame with 3 wins and 3 places in 9 AW runs.

WILD EDRIC the only known frontrunner in the race and my 2nd top-rated so could go well.

TATHMEEN won last time out but it's not as good over this trip so one I would lay.

PRINCE OF ROME hasn't any c/d form but a shorter trip looks best so another one to lay.

CONCLUSION: A nice looking class 3 handicap with a field of 10 to analyse, its a race where the lays will form the base of hopefully making a profit from the race I will look to lay (Three Saints Bay + Fizzy Feet + Secret Venture + Tathmeen + Prince Of Rome) Wild Edric could lead and prove hard to catch being my 2nd top-rated but the one carrying my money will be ALSVINDER 8/1 who likes to track the leaders and has the prime stall 1 draw and then stay on the stronger at the finish. 

Alsvinder 8/1 6th 

Lay bets: Fizzy Feet (-4.5pts) Three Saints (+1pt) Secret Venture (+1pt) Tathmeen (+1pt) Prince Of Rome (+1pt) 

Total -1.5pts


A class 3 conditions race and it ends up with just 3 runners, Moss Gill might need this run for fitness but there isn't a known frontrunning sort in the race so if the early pace is slow then anything could win, Puds has 2 wins and 5 places on the AW tracks but will need to improve timewise if the pace is fast and I guess I should be backing Watchable who has 1 win and 1 place from 2 c/d runs but I might leave it alone just because of the lack of early pace.

Friday, 13 March 2020

6:00 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (13th March)


As usual, I will start with the ones I don't think can win this race (Carlovian + Northern Queen) I could have added Waqaas to the list of lays but there isn't much else known early pace so with an easy lead he could become very dangerous as I think he might be better over further, Kommander Kirkup hasn't been in form recently while Jazz Legend might need this run so maybe worth laying as well but I will stick with the 2 I am confident won't win, Badger Berry is well-weighted and could go well but my money will be riding on PUCHITA 10/3 who won for me the time before last over this trip but was outpaced early in its last race over 5 furlongs and now back up to 6 furlongs it has been found a good chance to get back to winning ways. 

Puchita 10/3 1st 

Lay bets: Carlovian (+1pt) Northern Queen (+1pt)

Total 5.33pts


An old favourite of mine Red Stripes has won for me recently but today its raised into a class 4 affair, I have a feeling it might be a step too far for it plus it will be taken on by Aleef for the lead, no doubt it will run a decent race but may fall a little short, Exalted Angel likes to track the leaders and will be trying to stay on at the finish and should go well but I will be backing SAMOVAR 7/1 but my only worry with this horse is that he doesn't seem to win as many races as it ought to do but it has won 4 times over this c/d and at the price looks a value call in the race, its another that likes to track the leaders and if the leaders fade nearing the finish it could stay on resolutely to pick them up as the line approaches.

Samovar 7/1 3rd 

Wednesday, 11 March 2020

7:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips & Lay Bets (12th March)


Only 5 runners and I can only find (Lord Riddiford) to lay, the bottom weight Airshow should be another lay as this trip might be too short on this surface and timewise it needs to improve, that leaves 3 others and I will look to dutch them all as I cannot split them, CORINTHIA KNIGHT 5/1 is a possible frontrunner and if getting to the front it could prove dangerous and its best time from 2018 would make it 2nd top-rated overall, VERNE CASTLE 10/3 is only rated 1lb higher than RESTLESS ROSE 6/4 on just 2019/20 c/d times but the former has an even better time from 2018 that would make it top-rated overall, all 3 have good jockey stats while Restless Rose has the best trainer stats.

Restless Road 13/8 2nd 
Corinthia Knight 6/1 3rd 
Verne Castle 9/2 4th 

Lay bets: Lord Riddiford (-2.25pts)

Total -5.25pts  


Its one of those days with another race where I will be dutching horses to hopefully make a profit, I will look to lay (Stopdworldnletmeoff) I could quite easily add Tilsworth Rose, Bernies Boy and Amazing Amaya to the lay list but 2 of them are not at the top of the handicap for no reason although I think both of them might prefer a longer trip while the other has a very interesting positive looking jockey booking, I will be dutching, KYLLUKEY 7/2, CUBAN SPIRIT 11/1, SUPERSEDED 9/2 and Awake In Asia 9/1, the latter 3 have all been known to lead before and could dominate the race while the first-named could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast and fade entering the final furlong.

Kylluckey 14/1 1st 
Cuban Spirit 12/1 4th 
Superseded 9/2 9th 

Lay bets: Stopdworldnletmeoff  (+1pt) 

Total +13pts 

Total on day +7.75pts

5:15 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets (11th March)


BERNIES BOY 7/2 timewise recently leaves it needs to improve but has a decent time from 2018 that could possibly see it making the frame but not of value for an each-way punt.

AT YOUR SERVICE 17/2 has only slow times recently and its best from Chelmsford would still leave it outside my top 3.

MONT KIARA 10/1has got a poor draw and with other early paced sorts in this race it may struggle to get a good early position.

TARSEEKH 5/1 has got the plum draw and has been known to lead before but timewise it would need to improve to take the honours in this race so looks too short in my opinion.

MERCERS 18/1 is usually held up for a late run but looking at its times it may not get there quickly enough to catch the leaders.

OUR MAN IN HAVANA 17/2 a versatile type with its racing tactics, got a decent draw and good trainer/jockey stats.

HIGHLAND ACCLAIM 14/1 has been in poor form lately and is on a losing run of 21 races and has only won twice from 37 AW runs.

TAWAAFOQ 17/2 has only slow times over this course and distance but its best from Chelmsford would put it in the mix but this could be the wrong course for it and I will leave it alone.

DISTANT APPLAUSE 5/1 hasn't any form over this course and distance but would need to improve for the switch to this course to win this race and looks too short in price.

INDIAN AFFAIR 6/1 has only slow times recently and hasn't won from its last 16 attempts and its best from 2018 at Chelmsford would still see it struggle to win this race. 

DELEGATE THAT LADY 14/1 hasn't got much going for it on my data so one to lay.

ASK THE GURU 28/1 the last one's stablemate and another I would look to lay.

CONCLUSION: As one would expect with a class 6 race there are several bits of data that point to different animals making it hard to untangle the form lines, the two at the bottom of the handicap (Ask The Guru + Delegate That Lady) are ones I will look to lay, Tawaafoq and Highland Acclaim could go well here but my money will be riding on OUR MAN IN HAVANA 17/2 who from stall 3 should be able to get a good early position either contesting the lead or sitting just off the pace against the rails and then prove the stronger close home.

Our Man In Havana 17/2 2nd 

Lay bets: Ask The Guru (+1pt) Delegate That Lady (+1pt) 

Total on day +1pt