AYR 8.10
An 8 runner race which I can split exactly into 2 halves, 4 lays,Holmeswood, Ower Fly, Gin In The Inn and Oriental Lilly, Stanhope (78) may not want the going to be too fast, Summerghand (79) can track the leaders or be held up, Dark Defender (84) another that may not want really fast ground, BATTEN THE HATCHES 14/1 didn't quite get home at Haydock when recording its best time last year, this course is slightly easier which will help, the jockey booking, 16% wins for the stable, looks a positive move, this is one of only 2 that have been known to lead before and if allowed to set its own pace, which is what i hope happens, it could keep enough in reserve to repel any challengers and as long as all 8 run then I will go with an each way bet.
AYR 8.45
There's a couple of 3 year olds that could improve but do need to to win here, then I've marked 4 down as potential lays, Fumbo Jumbo, Kinloch Pride, Dr Doro and Brendan, Alsvinders best time is becoming to look very much like a fluke time where it was towed along in a fast run race, Fintry Flyer is 3rd top but may prefer further but could stay on to make the frame, so I'm looking at ETERNALIST 5/1 who could be the 1 to set the pace here and ought to then prove hard to catch but i have got DAWOODI 11/1 just 2 lbs higher so I have to back both to cover both angles and the latter will be with an each way bet.
NEWMARKET 9.05
Only 6 runners and I've again split the race into 2 halves, the bottom 3 may struggle here, the top weight could be dangerous after seeming to improve on the all-weather but I cannot split SITAR 4/1 and COMPTON POPPY 22/1 and i will be backing them both in this race to win as there's not much value in going each way with only 2 places.
HAMILTON 2.45
Aleef is the only known pace setting type in the race but wouldn't want the going to be too fast, I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in Start Time Nuns Walk who could make the frame, in 2nd spot is GOWANBUSTER 40/1 a 3 year old who’s trainer has a 15% win rate here and I cant believe the price so I will have an each way wager but top rated is YES YOU 17/2 who also may not want the ground to be too firm, I will go with having 2 bets here.
CHELMFORD 7.10
I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Poyle Vinnie 6/1 but the trainer, 2-27 and jockey 0-20 stats put me off its chances and its not really an each way price but it could be thereabouts at the finish, VERNE CASTLE 7/1 is the other one and the jockey booking, 4-25 looks a positive move, bottom weight Something Lucky 16/1 is either top rated or 3rd top rated with an apprentice riding but it also may be slightly outclassed here but that doesn't mean it cant make the frame, I will be backing the selection and having 2 smaller saving bets on the other 2 mentioned.
CHELMSFORD 8.40
Not really enough data to work with in this race but Human Nature looks well weighted at the bottom of the handicap and its a possible pacesetter here but the one to catch my eye is the top weight RAUCOUS 9/2 who recorded a fast time last year and showed a return to form winning last time out and has been found an opportunity to follow up here but there are a few unknowns in the race so any stakes will be kept lower than full strength.
THIRSK 3.55
A cracking class 4 race with 14 runners, four 3 year olds and only 1 known front runner and I cannot narrow it down to anything less than 4, KING ROBERT 12/1 and MADRINHO 7/2 represent the older horses and both have good trainer/jockey stats, SILVER STARLIGHT 25/1 could go well off bottom weight and is a 3 year old but top rated BREAKING RECORDS 9/2 is also a 3 year old with very good trainer/jockey stats and is the only known front runner in this race but I will attempt to dutch all 3 to make a profit.
Madrihnp 7/2 2nd
Breaking Records 9/2 4th
Silver Starlight 14/1 5th
King Robert 12/1 6th
BEVERLEY 7.30
Only 5 runners in a conditions race and on ratings and my speed figures I'm hoping JUDICIAL 11/10 can lead all the way here, its got 4lbs in hand of the top weight on official handicap ratings and its the hot favourite but handy to add to any multi bets.
BRIGHTON 8.40
A very poor class 6 race and if it wasn't for a few positives against the only horse with a recent decent time I wouldn't have been betting in this race but ASK THE GURU 4/1 is also the only known front runner in the race and ran very well last time out and a repeat of that would be enough for it to win here.
ASCOT 3.40
This is the sprint of the year so far, a Group 1 affair with the cream from Ireland, USA and France, the big 2 on paper looks to be Battaash and Lady Aurelia being the 1st 2 in the betting, Blue Point had some good form last year, I'm guessing the 4 horses from the all powerful A.P O’Brien stable will work together to upset the opposition, I am going to sit back and salivate in anticipation and keep my hands out of my wallet and save my ammunition for another day, good luck whatever you decide.
AYR 3.05
Only 3 of the 11 runners have recorded times and the other 8 all have negatives against their names, Perfect Words may prefer further but could stay on to make the frame if the early pace is fast enough, Dawoodi also may need further on g/f going,my top rated ARCHIMEDES 7/1 is one of only 2 known front runners and if allowed to dictate the pace then it could prove hard to catch here.
Archimedes 7/1 8th
CARLISLE 3.20
Of the 14 runners I've narrowed it down to 5, Biddy Brady a 3 year old could be a hidden danger as could Mutabaahy, Cliff is 3rd top who likes to track the leaders, Searanger a hold up type is 2nd top rated with DUNCAN OF SCOTLAND 14/1 as my top spotted horse, its 1 of only 2 front runners in the race and could attempt to lead all the way here and at the price it has to be an each way bet.
Duncan Of Scotland 33/1 Unp
AYR 3.35
On paper the best sprint of the day but I cannot solve the riddle and I couldn't completely discount any of the runners so its a race to watch and savour.
NOTTINGHAM 6.20
I've marked 3 down as lays and 2 possibly 3 that could set the pace, Fethiye Boy is 4th best a front runner in stall 9, Bashiba is 2nd top and top spot goes to PENNY DREADFUL 12/1 who recorded its best time last year over this c/d so hopefully it can either lead or contest the lead again here and get back to winning ways with a top class jockey onboard and another that's price allows for an each way wager.
Penny Dreadful 12/1 5th
WINDSOR 7.30
I usually like front running horses but in this race I'm hoping my 3rd top rated Bahamian Dollar and Field Of Vision my 2nd top rated will contest the lead and set a fast early pace which could play into the hands of my selection ENGLISHMAN 8/1 who can be held up or track the pacesetters and the trainer does quite well at this course which I hope is positive pointer.
Englishman 8/1 8th
DONCASTER 3.40
A nice looking class 3 race but too many negatives to be 100% sure of anything. Boy In The Bar 11/2 is capable of running a fast time but doesn't win as often as it should plus I'm not sure these flatter courses suit it but it could make the frame, Huntsman's Close 33/1 would need to burst back to form to win here but never say never, Naggers 12/1 doesn't want the going to be too fast so the predicted g/f going may find it out, Related 16/1 is a front running type who could go well on this type of course, my selection would be Moonraker 10/1 if it wasn't drawn in stall 1 which means it will need a degree of luck to win here, I've mentioned the 5 that could win this race and I will look to dutch them all to small stakes here.
SALISBURY 4.25
This is a Listed race but only 6 runners and half of them are 3 year olds, I can find a reason to back all 6 of them and I've only got 1 small negative against any, it will be a race to watch and enjoy for me.
SALISBURY 5.25
Down to class 4 but a competitive affair where I've only got 2 of the 9 with negatives and 1 of those is a 3 year old which is capable of improving, so only 1 lay, Grey Galleon has been off the course for a longtime and may need this run for fitness and would still have to improve a couple of pounds from when it was last seen, Open Wide 6/1 is 2nd top on a time from Windsor last year but has been placed in 3 of its 4 runs this year and this is a drop in class from its last 3 runs, it may need further to show its absolute best as it was staying on but not getting there when doing its best time it ought to make the frame and I may have a covering bet on this one but I'm hoping UNION ROSE 18/1 who I hope tries to lead all the way from stall 4 and if the jockey gets the fractions right it could have enough in the tank to repel any challengers but I have to admit its not been at its best lately but this is a very good opportunity for it to adopt the front running tactics again which were deployed when today's jockey won on it at Bath.
Union Rose 20/1 6th
CHESTER 4.55
I am not a fan of betting at this course but maybe ok this time, I've marked 7 down as lays in the race, Casterbridge is a front runner and in stall 1 and my 4th top rated, joint 3rd top are Highland Acclaim and Mujassam, 2nd top is Lexis Hero but stall 12 isn't great for a front runner but top rated SPIRIT OF WEDZA 11/2 likes to track the leaders and from stall 2 can get a handy early position from which to attack late on.
Spirit Of Wedza 11/2 3rd
YORK 5.15
Too many runners, 20, to be completely confident here, there's early pace across the course but none of my top 4 are front runners, Athollblair Boy 4th best, Bogart 3rd best, Ninjago a hold up type is 2nd best but top rated is TOOFI 10/1 another that likes to be held up for a late run and I will go with an each way bet but my stakes will be kept low just because of the amount of runners
Toofi 12/1 Unp
BATH 5.20
I am not a fan of this distance 5 furlongs 160 yards, I've put 5 of the 12 runners as lays, the biggest problem is the lack of known early paced types which could suit my selection, CAPTAIN RYAN 10/1 who is my top rated on 6 furlong times and 2nd best on 5 furlong times so I'm hoping its the winning combination here and the jockey booked is 1-2 for this stable on previous rides which bodes well and the price allows me to back it each way.
Captain Ryan 10/1 3rd
LEICESTER 8.10
Only 7 runners, 2 I can discount completely, 2 who are a few spots off the top 2 and an unknown quantity, leaves me with Oriental Splendour who recorded a fast time last year when getting towed along in a fast run race but that time looks very much like a fluke and if that's so that leaves me with KING CRIMSON 7/4 who is also the only known front runner in the race and could easily lead all the way here.
See Eric's Secret Tip here
CHEPSTOW 5.55
I shall be having 2 smallish bets in this race to cover the angles and smallish because there's a 3 year old that could improve plus an Irish horse which I don't know enough about to back or lay the horse as its having its 1st run for a new trainer but I'm going to hope its not fully fit for its 1st race of the year, 3rd top is Sfumato who is the trainers 1st runner here in 5 years and the 7lb claiming apprentice is having their 1st ride for the stable, not sure what to expect but it could make the frame, INDIAN AFFAIR 7/1 is 2nd top and the only known front runner in the race so could be dangerous if allowed to dictate the pace but I have got SWANTON BLUE 9/1 as my top rated when it won 1st time out in 2017 at Salisbury so a lack of a recent run may not matter and the trainer has a 27% win ratio at this course.
Swanton Blue 9/1 1st
Indian Affair 8/1 6th
CHEPSTOW 8.05
Of the 12 runners I've marked numbers,7,8,9,10,12 as lays, in total there's half the field that have led before so they may go off too quickly from the start and then fade as 5 of my top 6 are possible pace setters with DAVID'S BEAUTY 9/2 stall 12 my 3rd top and QUANTUM DOT 10/3 stall 3 in 2nd spot, so the race could possibly be set up for JAGANORY 7/1 who likes to sit just off the pace and then stay on strongly at the finish but i will go with backing them all to cover the angles, a front runner drawn high and one drawn low plus a strong staying type.
David's Beauty 9/2 1st
Jaganory 7/1 4th
Quantom Dot 6/1 7th
NOTTINGHAM 3.50
A very nice looking class 3 race with 8 runners so 3 places at the moment so I don't want any non-runners, I've got 3 marked down as definite lays, 1 who needs to improve quite a bit to win so 4 to concentrate on, Red Pike 4th top is a possible pacesetter, Muscika 3rd top likes to track the pace as does Go Far in 2nd spot (this horse got a good tow along in a fast run race at Goodwood last year and the same in 2015 so they might not be a true rating for the horse) top of the pile is LITTLE PALAVER 14/1 who is the only other known front running type and if this one does get to the front could prove very hard to catch, the pluses are the trainer has a 25% win rate here and the apprentice jockey claims 7lb and is 1-5 for the stables older horses so I'm guessing the instructions will be to try and lead all the way and at the price it will have to be an each way bet.
Little Palaver 14/1 4th
NOTTINGHAM 4.20
Ugh what a race, 17 runners and I wouldn't want to own any of them, I've only got 4 with recorded times, in order, Savannah Beau, Whitecrest+Naples Bay, Pretty Bubbles, there's no known front runner in the race although Sarabi and Drop Kick Murphi have led before it was only on sufferance, i originally thought i would leave the race alone and I'm putting up a selection PRETTY BUBBLES 14/1, because I'm thinking the price is quite a lot bigger than I thought so i will have a small each way bet.
Pretty Bubbles 20/1 Unp
HAYDOCK 6.55
There's only Big Time Maybe who has been known to lead before and this 3-year old could be dangerous if allowed to dictate, another 3 year old Iconic Knight comes out 4th best in a tightly marked race plus decent stats, Ocelot is 3rd top and Patrick 2nd top and both have ok stats so could be thereabouts at the finish, top rated is JABBAROCKIE 5/1 who’s stable have another runner in the race so I'm hoping this ones a trier (i doubt the other horse can win even if it is the only trier from the stable) the 3lb claimer is well worth the claim and it pushes it further clear and it usually likes to track the pace and has a good chance here to get back to winning ways.
Jabbarockie 5/1 3rd
YARMOUTH 2.00 + 2.30
Two divisions of a class 6 affair with 10 runners in each and nothing much to write home about, in Division one i will go with a small bet on MONARCH MAID 4/1 as its capable of front running and if leading in this race it could prove hard to catch. The 2nd division is so dire its not really worth betting but just for the sake of it there's only 1 horse with a recorded time so Toni's A Star 5/1 could win the race but it sure wont take much winning and is probably best left alone.
Monarch Maid 8/1 3rd
CHELMSFORD 4.20
I have to admit i do love all weather racing and this class 2 affair is a cracker of a race but in betting terms its got me baffled, Jumira Bridge has got a good time from Kempton which would overshadow this field of runners apart from the time Gold Filigree posted at Lingfield but this horses time from this course is quite a bit slower, Compas Scoobie could stay on strongly if there's a fast early pace and Verne Castle has got a chance as well, i think it might be a race to sit back, watch and savour.
HAMILTON 8.30
My top 3 ratings are the top 3 in the handicap, Afandem is 3rd best and maybe the one to set the early pace, the trainers win recordis 19% and the jockey 17% so that looks a positive, Logi is 2nd top, the trainer has an 18% win ratio and the 5lb claiming apprentice is 2-3 for this stable, so another positive, ZYLAN 10/1 is top rated and the trainer is 2-8 here with their older horses so that's all 3 with positives, i will as always back the top rated but have covering bets on the other 2 to make a small profit just in case the selection doesn't do its best.
Zylan 10/1 7th
HAMILTON 9.00
This isn't a race to get too heavily involved in, I've only got 6 of the 15 runners with a recorded speed figure, the top 5 in the handicap, Mr Strutter, Foxy Boy, Imperial Legend, Something Exciting, Kodimoor and Thornaby Princess, with some of them having claiming apprentices riding the final figures are hard to be certain of, i myself will be looking to dutch 5 of the 6 mentioned but will omit the top weight, who I suspect will be favourite but only wins in slow run races but I'm hoping there will be a decent early pace here.
1st 4 home here: 12/1, 4/1, 10/3 & 25/1
See Eric's Secret Tip here
THIRSK 3.15
A big field of 17 always makes things hard but I've eliminated 5 from my analysis and 4 others are very much out of my ideas of the winner which leaves me with 6 that i think might win and I can hopefully narrow it further as I investigate.
ALEEF not a bad draw in stall 13 and recorded a time in 2016 that would put it in 2nd spot but would need to bounce back to form to win here but never say never.
BUCCANEERS VAULT is 2nd top on a time from Hamilton 2017 but has shown very little so far this year and usually gives a sign when returning to form.
THE ARMED MAN has been known to lead and its drawn stall 1, the stable has a 22% win ratio here and the 7lb claiming apprentice does well for the stable with a 20% win rate so has to be considered.
CASTERBRIDGE another that could attempt to lead and drawn in the middle in stall 9 but if its a strong run race it may struggle to stay the trip at this stiff course.
CASE KEY is one that also has a time from 2016 that would put it into 2nd spot but its best last year was quite a bit below that standard but both the trainer and jockey have 19% win rates so connections might be expecting a big run and it could make the frame.
STRAIGHTOTHEPOINT only has ok trainer/jockey stats but its top rated on a Ripon time last year, it looks to becoming to hand and it may be ideally drawn in stall 15 for a front runner.
SUMMARY: There should be plenty of early pace right across the field and there's a few that could make the frame but I'm hoping the selection STRAIGHTOTHEPOINT 11/2 who finished 2nd last time out can lead here and hold on for the win.
Straightothepoint 7/1 6th
SALISBURY 5.30
This is an apprentice riders race where they carry whips but are not allowed to use them, which brings up a dilemma, surely some horses wont do their absolute best without some gentle persuasion on their hindquarters. I'm not clever enough to know which horses will or wont do their best so its a race to leave well alone and i think any punter will do well to ignore these races, that's unless they know more than me, which to be truthful wouldn't be hard in this instance, I do know and acknowledge my limitations, good luck if you do bet.
