AYR 2.00 (minimum stick reading required 8.5)
I might be over-optimistic in hoping the going is good or firmer but don't forget as usual if the going isn't as frim as the stick figures I've put behind each race then there's no bets.
Star Cracker recorded one fast time over this c/d last year but that's beginning to look like a flukey time for it but it could make the frame, Jassie Allan is another that has a good time here last year but its been out of form lately, Ventura Secret is another capable of going well but my 2nd top-rated is Jacobs Pillow and if repeating its best time from Thirsk this year could prove hard to catch but I do have TARNHELM 7/1 rated higher and it will be going for a quick hattrick in this race and the apprentice booked has a cracking 4-9 record for this stable so they look to be expecting another win here.
BEVERLEY 7.00
This looks a nice race for a class 5 affair with a field of 12 taking part, Desert Ace and Afendam could both go well if doing their best, Suwaan looks the likely leader and could do enough to make the frame but it is on a losing run of 21 which is a little off-putting, Gamesome is my 3rd top-rated but is being ridden by a claiming apprentice who has a 16% win rate for this stables older horses but if DEBAWTRY 7/1 turns out again here after running on Saturday in this shorter distance race it could find itself back in the winners enclosure.
WINDSOR 7.20 (7.5)
There's several in this race that could go well, in fact, there's only one of the 9 runners I can discard, I think the early pace could be set by Joegogo and Our Oystercatcher but I'm hoping they set the race up for the fast-finishing horse THE DALEY EXPRESS 12/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the strongest at the finish and the jockey booking suggests connections are expecting a big run in this race and will be carrying my money.
HAMILTON 7.05
Only 6 runners but a couple of known front runners and Zig Zag Zyggy could go well from the front being my 3rd top-rated, Orions Bow comes out 2nd best but its on a losing run of 23 so my money will be riding on *VENTUROUS 9/4 who won 3 runs ago and has been found a winning chance here.
* NR
PONTEFRACT 7.30
Another 6 runner affair, maybe because there's just too many races nowadays, I've got Excessable in 2nd top spot and likes to track the leaders but DAPPER MAN 13/8 is in cracking form and has been found a good chance here but I doubt the price will be very good but it is helpful if added to a multi-bet.
Dapper Mna 2/1 5th
HAMILTON 7.40
Typical there are 14 runners and I can't narrow it down to any less than 7 possibles, Paddy Power, George Bowen and Lomu could all go well but I will be splitting my stakes amongst, *SUMMERGHAND 6/1, DARK DEFENDER 33/1, LAKE VOLTA 8/1 and TERUNTUM STAR 20/1, Lake Volta could lead and prove hard to catch is my 2nd top-rated on this years figures and I might tilt my stakes slightly in this one's favour.
Lake Volta 8/1 2nd
Dark Defender 33/1 7th
Teruntum Star 33/1 Unp
*NR
NEWMARKET 7.50
Down to 4 runners here but 2 of them Ornate and Judicial have led before so it should be a fair pace but I think they might be setting it up for the 3-year-old *JUNIUS BRUTUS 9/2 who will track the leaders and then stay on resolutely at the finish.
* NR
NEWMARKET 8.25
A nice looking class 3 race with 6 of the 10 runners having been known to lead, maybe the 3-year-old Shorter Skirt could be the one to benefit if they go off too fast and fade but my money will be split between 2 that could set the pace in BELATED BREATH 8/1 and LADY DANCEALOT 5/1 who both have good trainer/jockey stats and there's only 1lb between them on my ratings.
Belated Breath 8/1 3rd
Lady Dancelot 5/1 7th
PONTEFRACT 9.05
An 8 runner race where I can discard 4 of them as they have negatives against their names, Highly Sprung could be the one to set the pace and it's my 3rd top-rated but would need to be clever to pinch this race from the front, Requinto Dawn comes out 2nd top but its on a losing streak of 14 so my money will be invested on MR ORANGE 14/1 who is a hold up type and should be staying on strongly at the finish.
Mr Orange 14/1 1st
HAMILTON 9.15
The 7th and final sprint of the day (there was 8 but I couldn't make anything of the Nottingham 2.50 race) the 3-year-old Twentysixthstreet is my 4th top-rated and could improve after winning its last race, Born To Finish comes out 3rd best and usually tracks the leaders but another 3-year-old *JORDAN'S ELECTRICS 11/2 could set the pace to this race and comes out 2nd on my figures and I will be backing it because my top-rated CHOOKIE DUNEDIN 5/1 is on a losing run of 10 which is a little off-putting and both of them have recorded their best times over this course and distance so splitting my stake seems the sensible thing to do here.
Chookie Dunedin 6/1 2nd
* NR
HAMILTON 2.10
Of the 13 runners I've found 3 that like to lead and they are all in my top 6 ratings Super Florence is 2nd top on just 2019 times and 4th top overall its on a losing run of 12 but could make the frame, Jacobs Pillow comes out 3rd best on a 2018 c/d time and has been known to front-run, Camanche Grey is well weighted on its best run but with the trainers 0-8 and the jockeys 1-40 records i doubt they are expecting much in this race, my money will be riding on BRONZE BEAU 5/1 who finished 2nd last time out and has been found an opportunity to go one better here.
Bronze Beau 10/1 5th
CHEPSTOW 3.30
I am in a pickle with this race, Jaganory would be a fairly confident selection if it was over five and a half furlongs or shorter but this is six furlongs BUT there aren't any known front runners in this race so if the early pace is relatively slow it could stay the trip but I wouldn't want to rely on that happening, Castlerae Tess comes out 2nd top but I had to go back to Catterick in 2017 to find that time and its not done a repeat since then, the topweight Secondo is my 3rd top-rated and that was recorded this year at Brighton but the trainers 0-25 record at this course and the horses losing run of 23 are off-putting so maybe a race best left alone unless the betting shows some value that I can't ignore.
CHEPSTOW 4.00
I cannot really narrow this race down to one selection with any confidence but im still hopeful that I can make a profit from the race, theres five 3-year-olds that could improve and upset my analysis but as usual I will stick with the proven, SWENDAB 20/1 is my 2nd top rated using a 2018 c/d time but hasnt shown much recently but it is one of those horses that can spring back to form without warning and I expect it will be a big price and has to carry a small amount of my money just in case todays its day, SPOT LITE 8/1 showed a return to fomr might be nigh when finishing 3rd last time out and the trainers 29% win rate here with their older horses and the jockeys 22% win ratio for this stable point to connections expecting a big run here so has to be backed but the topweight SEAMSTER 11/2 would be interesting if running again here after finishing 3rd on Tuesday and its best time from Nottingham last year would see it home with a bit to spare and then take into account the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim which takes it further clear and he has a 17% win rate on this stables older horses, so I will back all 3 to hopefully show a profit.
Spot Lite 8/1 2nd
Seamster 11/2 5th
Swendab 33/1 6th
LEICESTER 5.25
This is a poor class 6 affair where I've only got 3 that have got recorded times, I think my main line of attack in this race will be to lay a few but which ones will depend on the betting and I will most likely post on the EricWinner FB page, Chez Vegas would be 2nd top-rated but that's using a 2016 time at Doncaster so maybe not one to rely on, Case Key has a time from Yarmouth which puts it 3rd top but that time came from last year so the one I will be backing is KATH'S LUSTRE 8/1 who did its time this year but at Bath which isn't a full 6 furlong distance but has won over the distance on the AW tracks so it shouldn't be a problem.
Kath's Lustre 8/1 6th
LINGFIELD 3.10
This looks a decent race for a class 6 AW affair, Hurricane Alert has led before and in stall 1 here it could go well and is my joint 2nd top-rated on this years times along with Brogan's Bay another possible pacesetter but stall 10 isn't ideal, Mercers recorded a time in 2018 that would take it to 2nd top spot but would need to bounce back to form here, my top rated is for both this year and last year so SANDFRANKSKIPSGO 10/1 has been found an opportunity to get back to winning ways but my stake won't be at full tilt.
Sandfrankskipsgo 12/1 5th
CATTERICK 3.30
A strange race for only 7 runners with just DIZZY G 11/2 being known to lead before and its time from Carlisle 2018 makes it my top-rated and with 3 runs under its belt it could be ready to get back to winning ways and could lead all the way here but I'm not confident enough to back it on its own as my 2nd top-rated SPIRIT OF WEDZA 15/2 has very good trainer/jockey stats and the hint has to be taken seriously
Dizzy G 11/2 5th
Spirit Of Wedza 15/2 7th
CATTERICK 4.30
Ten entrants in a class 5 dash, Qaaraat should be staying on the finish of the race and could make the frame being joint 2nd top on my ratings, Longroom is the other with the same rating but this ones time came from Ayr in 2018 and has been well below that level so far this year, both of the two 3-year-olds in this race have been known to lead before and I'm hoping that THE DEFIANT 5/2 can lead all the way in this race and will be carrying my money.
The Defiant 11/4 8th
LINGFIELD 5.10
I'm not really sure what to do with this race, HUMAN NATURE 5/1 has to be one to consider in this race as its the only known frontrunner in the race and could be very dangerous if given an easy lead but it has lost its last 12 races, PORTO FERRO 33/1 is my top rated on a time from Windsor last year but again a losing un of 11 doesn't inspire confidence, Englishman is another that has to be considered using a Goodwood figure from last year but doesn't like really fast ground, CENT FLYING 6/1 has the fastest time from 2019 recorded at Windsor so is in a way the form horse of the race, I will go with backing all 3 to cover the angles but my stakes won't be at full tilt.
Porto Ferro 33/1 5th
Cent Flying 6/1 6th
Human Nature 11/2 8th
BEVERLEY 2.15
There's 17 runners in this class 6 race but its not as bad as it first looks, the 3 runners that have been known to lead before don't feature in my top 4 ratings, Oriental Splendour would be competitive on a time from 2017 but hasn't been near that level since then, Twentysvntlancers is my 3rd top-rated just 1lb below Groundworker in 2nd spot but I do have CUPPACOCO 8/1 rated a few spots clear on a time it recorded last year at Thirsk on good to firm going and showed its well being when winning 2 runs ago on good ground but prefers the faster conditions and the jockey does ok on the stables older horses and it may get a good tow into this race being drawn next door to what I think will be the pacesetter and I will go with a small each-way punt.
Cuppacoco 14/1 Unp
BATH 3.30
Only 6 runners and I'm hoping, looking at the tissue prices in the Sporting Life, the bookies have underestimated the chances of SILVERRICA 14/1 who I admit doesn't look good at first glance at its form this year but there have been excuses for its poorish runs but it did record a decent time at Lingfield on turf this year and a time it recorded at Salisbury last year would see it lead and win cosily and will be carrying my money.
Silverrica 14/1 6th
BATH 4.30
Only 4 runners here and 2 of them are 3-year-olds and the only known front runner is the 3-year-old More Than Likely but it did lead over 5 furlongs and this race is 6 furlongs but could be dangerous with an easy lead but top rated is PEACE DREAMER 7/2 who recorded its best time over this c/d so has to be selection.
Peace Maker 4/1 3rd
NOTTINGHAM 6.40
Another poor turnout of just 6 runners, there's 2 that have been known to lead but both Arzaak and Choosey haven't been in good form recently so I think they will be setting the race up for a finishing type, the topweight MOVE IN TIME 2/1 starts off as my top rated and has decent trainer/jockey stats and only loses top spot by 1lb to GRANDFATHER TOM 10/3 who is being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice so I will go with backing them both in this race.
Grandfather Tom 11/2 1st
Move In Time 3/1 2nd
AYR 2.05
A quick blog today as I've run out of time, KOLUSSUS 15/2 looks the most likely leader in this race so this 3-year-old could be dangerous with an uncontested lead but the bottom weight BURMESE BLAZER 8/1 has a faster time and a positive jockey booking and if it wasn't for its losing run of 12 it would have been my sole bet but I will back them both to cover the angles.
Kolussus 12/1 2nd
Burmese Blazer 8/1 6th
RIPON 3.20
Only 5 runners and I think the 2 front runners Midnight Malibu and Merry Banter could be setting the pace for SEEN THE LYTE 8/1 to aim at and if reproducing its best time it could win cosily but it could be a tactical affair so my stakes won't be at full strength but the price does look good value to me.
Seen The Lyte 8/1 4th
RIPON 3.50
The bottom weight Bossipop is capable of recording a fast time but usually in lower class races but its the only known frontrunner in the race so can't be written off completely, Pipers Note has a time from 2017 that would make it my joint top rated but hasn't repeated that time recently which puts me off and my money will be riding on ROUNDHAY PARK 13/8 but the price isn't any value in my eyes but a winners a winner.
Roundhay Park 2/1 3rd
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.40
This is a very competitive class 4 race and the topweight Steelriver has been in good form lately and can't be ignored, others that have some degree of a chance are Cappananty Con, Zac Brown, Kamikaze Lord and Busby but my money will be riding on ZAPPER CASS 8/1 who should be staying on strongly at the finish.
Zapper Cass 16/1 6th
WINDSOR 7.30
Maybe Just Glamorous but I'm not sure fast ground is its forte, DASCHAS 12/1 is top rated on just 2019 times and usually runs on strongly at the finish, Wiley Post comes out 2nd best on a Windsor time from 2018 but then I have ICONIC KNIGHT 12/1 rated higher using an Ascot 2018 time and once again I will go with backing 2 selections with each way wagers.
Daschas 12/1 2nd
Iconic Knight 12/1 7th
YORK 2.05
A nice looking Listed race with 10 entrants, I was originally put off by the number of 3-year-olds in the race but maybe Poetry can do best of them and its best time was done at Sandown so this course should be ok, BOUNDARY LANE 33/1 comes out top rated on just 2019 times and it was at Haydock a similar course and will be burdened with some of my dosh at what looks a generous price but EMBLAZONED 3/1 recorded a time in 2018 at Ayr, again a similar course, that is a good few spots faster and this one has contested some better class races than this, so I will go with a win bet on Emblazoned and a small each way punt on Boundary Lane.
Emblazoned 9/2 7th
Boundary Lane 33/1 8th
HAMILTON 6.05
I am hoping the ground dries out a bit before racing starts, I need a stick reading of 7.4 before I have a bet, this lowly class 5 affair isn't bad for the class of race, there's a few that have shown bits of form that would make them competitive, Our Place In Loule, Shepherds Purse, Northern Society and Camanche Grey but I think they might all be battling for the minor honours as I have the 3-year-old HARD SOLUTION 5/1 a few spots clear on its best time over this c/d earlier this year with my only concern being a lack of known frontrunners in the race.
HAMILTON 6.35
Again a class 5 affair but this one isn't as good but still looks ok to bet on but once again there's no known frontrunners, Amazing Grazing is my 4th top rated with Cupids Arrow in 3rd spot and Gilmer in 2nd top spot, they have all recorded their best times this year so it should be a competitive affair but once again I'm going with a 3-year-old in the shape of AUTUMN FLIGHT 16/1 who comes out top on my figures and that time was recorded over this c/d which is always positive so I will be having an each way bet.
YORK 4.55
There's 3 known front runners amongst the field of 13, the 3-year-old Nicki’s Angel won in a good time over this course and distance as a 2-year-old in 2018 but hasn't shown anything worthwhile so far this year looking as though it hasn't trained on but could be competitive if bouncing back to form, Acclaim The Nation and WRENTHORPE 12/1 are the 2 I expect to actually set the pace in this race and the latter is my 2nd top rated so if this one does get to the front it could prove very hard to catch and if taking the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim into the mix it moves to top spot and the one I will definitely be backing but I'm not sure I could back just one horse in these prevailing circumstances so will also be backing the original top-rated CANFORD BAY 8/1 but with my stakes tilted in favour of the front running selection Wrenthorpe.
Canford Bay 12/1 5th
Wrenthorpe 14/1 Unp
NEWMARKET 5.20
A poor turnout of just 7 runners for a class 2 race and a winners prize money of 16k and for a 5 furlong race its unusual not to have a front running type in the race, Shamshon 7/1 my 3rd top rated is capable of doing a fast time but usually in lower class race, Lord Riddiford 3/1 is 2nd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders and the jockey has a 1-5 record for this stable but I've got one rated higher in MOUNTAIN PEAK 16/1 who also likes to track the leaders but the jockey booked to ride this horse has got a 31% win rate on all the stables runners but it goes up to 60% when riding the stables older horses and will be the one burdened with my money mainly because I think its terrific value but I do think the winner will come from the 3 I've mentioned and therefore it might be wiser to dutch all 3 of them.
Mountain Peak 6/1 1st
CHEPSTOW 8.10
In this 9 runner race my top 3 ratings are the 3 horses in the race known to front run, Oeil De Tigre is 4th top rated and could possibly, but unlikely, be the one to benefit if they go off too fast up front and then all fade, Kinglami is my 3rd top rated and Princely my 2nd top rated but both seem better in lower class races and they both have to overcome double-figure losing runs so that leaves me hoping my top rated JOEGOGO 4/1 can get to the front and then prove too hard to catch and does have a decent jockette in this ladies Pro-Am race, I will be backing it but my stakes won't be at full tilt as I'm not a fan of this type of race.
Joegogo 10/1 8th
CARLISLE 4.15
Of the 9 runners only Jack The Truth is known to like to front run but it would need to either win tactically or improve a few pounds but its not for me, Only Spoofing and Spirit Of Wedza start off as my joint 2nd top rated but the latter is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice which would move it into clear 2nd spot but I still have ROSINA 14/1 rated higher and the trainer does well here with their older horses and will be carrying my money in this race in an each way punt.
Rosina 25/1 8th
EPSOM 7.35
Only 7 runners but a cracker of a class 4 affair which is very hard to solve with 3 or 4 having some chance of winning, Real Estate won 2 runs ago in class 5 in a fastish time but I'm not 100% sure it can handle a class 4 race but never say never, the next 3 are all equal top rated on times recorded this year and all were recorded over this c/d, Harrogate, Ashpan Sam and Highland Acclaim, who the race is named after. I will have to back the front running ASHPAN SAM 3/1 who recorded an even faster time in 2017 again over this c/d but I cannot leave out the horse the race is named after so I will also have to back Highland Acclaim 2/1 but my stakes will be in favour of the one capable of leading all the way and only a small covering bet but there's no value in the price.
Ashpan Sam 6/1 2nd
NEWBURY 8.50
If I knew who was going to set the pace I might get a better picture of how this race might be run but without any known front running types in the race it muddies the water every time, Spanish Star is my 3rd top rated and has every chance to make the frame, DANECASE 10/1 starts off as my top rated so has to have a chance in this race but *TOP BOY 2/1 who won last time out in a class 6 apprentices race and here its being ridden by the same 5lb claiming apprentice which takes it to joint top rated and the apprentice has a 2-5 record of wins for this stable but this is a step back up into class 5 but that won't put me off as it was contesting class 4 races earlier this year but I will be backing both selections.
Danecase 10/1 8th
* NR
There's 4 other sprints today which I am not going to write about as there's not much data to work with but there is one horse in each race that catches the eye and may be worth having a small bet on.
Doncaster 3.55 Bashiba 9/1 3rd
Carlisle 4.50 Roy's Dream who could try to lead all the way 18/1 8th
Carlisle 5.20 Ninjago - 4/1 1st
Carlisle 5.55 Tarnhelm - 13/2 1st
YARMOUTH 4.20
I've not seen many class 2 claiming handicaps and this race is quite complicated at first glance especially with no “known” front runners in the field and I concentrated on 5 of the 9 runners, any of Raucous, Fighting Irish, Muscika Zamjar could make the frame here, my selections stable has 2 runners in the race and on jockey bookings it looks like HART STOPPER 6/1 is their more fancied runner and will be carrying my money in this race but my stakes won't be at full strength because of the lack of known early pace.
Hart Stopper 7/1 2nd
BATH 6.30
I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in Global Rose and Terri Rules but the formers losing run of 12 is off-putting, SPOT LITE 12/1 comes out 2nd best on a time recorded at Salisbury last year and these 3 could be fighting for 2 places if the only front runner in the field EDGED OUT 6/4 gets the fractions right and if reproducing its best from either 2018 or 2017 it would be good enough to win this race but the price is quite a bit shorter than the 3/1 I was expecting.
Edged Out 6/4 2nd
Spot Lite 12/1 3rd
BATH 8.00
I nearly left this race alone with only 4 runners but luckily 2 of them have been known to lead before and my top-rated pair is a possible front runner, CRYSTAL DEAUVILLE 9/2 and one that likes to track the leaders and then pounce late home, BIG LACHIE 6/4 who I think will be the favourite, (its not) but I will back them both to cover both angles.
Big Lachie 6/4 2nd
Crystal Deauville 9/2 3rd
BATH 8.30
There are only 3 runners with recorded speed figures on my graphs but there's one big problem with no known pacesetters in the race and even worse when my selection is a hold up type, Quick Recovery is 3rd best but hasn't been in much form recently, Toolatetodelegate is my 2nd top rated and the trainer/jockey stats do rise when looking at older horse races so has to be considered but at 6/4 its way shorter than it should be in my opinion as I've got JAGANORY 7/2 as my top rated and then the apprentices 5lb claim moves it further clear and will be carrying my money in this poor class 6 affair.
Jaganory 9/2 3rd
