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Sunday, 9 May 2021

3:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (10th May)

LINGFIELD 3.00 

VANDAD 9/2 hasn't any form over this course and distance and i think it might be a better prospect when raced over a longer distance and one I will look to lay at the price but I would only lay the win part. 

LUA DE MEL 25/1 another entrant with no course and distance form and this one also might be better when raced over further, I would lay it but its not value to do so at the price.

SHINING 5/1 has only one win to its name from 17 runs on any All-Weather course, it has run over this course and distance 7 times and been placed in 4 of them so could make the frame again but maybe not good enough for the win as it is only joint 5th best on my figures so I would lay the win part only at the price. 

PINK FLAMINGO 16/1 is a possible pacesetter but only joint 5th top on my list, it has had 2 previous course and distance runs, winning one of them but nowhere in the other but could go okay from the front. 

HEY HO LETS GO 7/2 has won once and been placed twice from 5 previous course and distance runs and likes to track the leaders before staying on at the finish and it is 3rd top on my overall ratings but is 2nd top on recent times so could go well but not an each way price. 

SOMMER KATZE 25/1 another possible front runner and has a time from Southwell that would make it my 2nd top overall but I am not convinced it will like this surface as it might be a bit too quick for it but not worth laying at the price. 

LETHAL BLAST 7/2 doesn't have to lead but has been known to do so but I doubt it will need to lead in this race, it has won once from 3 runs over this course and distance but is only 4th top rated on my figures I couldn't back it each way because its not a big enough price but I also couldn't lay it even though i'm doubtful it can win this race.

AGUEROOO 7/2 has won once and been placed twice from just 4 course and distance runs and at the weights it comes out top on my figures and usually stays on strongly at the finish over this distance so this race could be run to suit its style. 

STARCHANT 33/1 still a maiden after 38 runs and will be the outsider in this field and I cannot see it breaking its duck in this race. 

SUMMARY: The early pace looks likely to be set by Sommer Katze or Pink Flamingo and the former may do best of the front runners, Lethal Blast and Hey Ho Lets Go could run well and battle to make the frame but this race looks likely to be run to suit the racing style of AGUEROOO 7/2 who usually stays on strongly at the finish over this distance.

Agurooo 17/2 4th -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

Wednesday, 5 May 2021

7:50 Chelmsford Racing Tips (6th May)

CHELMSFORD 7.50 

JACK THE TRUTH 13/2 usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely nearing the finish and is my top rated. 

AUTUMN FLIGHT 5/2 a possible pacesetter but needs to improve time wise to win this race being just 3rd best on my figures. 

SCALE FORCE 10/3 hasn't any form on this surface and would need to improve for the switch to win this race. 

GLOBAL PROSPECTOR 9/4 my 2nd top rated and another possible pacesetter and could be dangerous if allowed to dictate the race from the front. 

SUMMARY: The only older horse sprint race of the day and a dismal turnout of just 4 runners, 2 of which have been known to lead and the other 2 like to track the leaders so it should be a true run affair, Scale Force races as though further suits it better and needs to improve time wise to be winning this race, Autumn Flight is a possible pacesetter but is only 3rd best on my own unique speed figures, Global Prospector is the other known front runner and my 2nd top rated so I think they might be setting the race up for the top weighted JACK THE TRUTH 13/2 who has won 4 races and been placed in another 4 races from just its 9 runs over this course and distance, the trainer has a 21% win ratio at this course and the jockey has an 18% win ratio on all of his rides for the stable but that rises to 31% when riding the stables older horses and it certainly looks the value call in the race in my opinion.

Jack The Truth 15/2 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

Tuesday, 4 May 2021

8:10 Kempton Racing Tips (5th May)

KEMPTON 8.10 

THE NOSEY PARKER the only known front running type in the race and could be dangerous with a soft lead.

VIVENCY hasnt any form over this distance and it looks as though it will need a longer distance to show its best. 

MISS THOUGHTFUL won before in a relatively slow time and its best came when it finished 2nd but needs to improve time wise to win this race.

ARAMIS GREY hasn't any course form and it has a slow time over this distance at Lingfield and might need further to show its best. 

SUMMARY: The only older horse sprint for the day and now only 4 runners with all of them being 4yo’s, both Aramis Grey and Vivency might need further to shine while Miss Thoughtful needs to improve a few spots to win this race but is my 2nd top rated so could be the one for the forecast, THE NOSEY PARKER 7/2 is the one known front runner so if getting to the front it ought to prove hard to catch but it isn't a race where I will be betting heavily.

The Nosey Parker 5/1 2nd -1pt

Total on the day -1pt

Monday, 3 May 2021

2:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (4th May)

LINGFIELD 2.00 

I will not make any bones about it but this race is dire even for a class 6 affair, I can see 2 and possibly 3 horses that could set the pace, Kingsley Klarion is the possibly as it can lead but only usually does so when nothing else wants to and I doubt that will happen here but hasn't shown much recently time wise, there is a few others that have not shown much time wise recently, Katelli would have a chance if able to reproduce its Tapeta time on this surface but is still a maiden on the AW after 12 runs, Knockout Blow could go well but can struggle to stay the trip with a fast early pace which i think might happen here plus the jockey is 0-12 for the stable, Englishman has a trainer record of 0-11 at this course and the jockey is also 0-11 for the stable, Perfect Symphony has a time from Chelmsford last year that would make it my top rated but the trainers win record of 1-38 and the jockeys 0-13 makes me think they have another race in mind but it has won over this c/d from 8 attempts, Thaki has no surface form to its name but has slow times over this distance at both Wolverhampton and Newcastle and would need to improve for the surface switch to win this race, Blue Cable has run twice over this distance on this surface but time wise produced nothing that registered on my figures and its best time which comes from Wolverhampton isn't good enough to make my top 4 ratings, I will be siding with THREE CARD TRICK 16/1 (EW) who hasn't run here before but what caught my attention was the apprentice jockeys win record for the stable having 31% on all the stables runners and 33% on the older horses, it does have a decent time Newcastle and an even better time from Chelmsford which would make it competitive and at the price i have to give it as an each way wager. 

Three Card Trick 16/1 4th -2pts

Total - 2pts

LINGFIELD 2.30 

Only 6 runners and to be honest on all known form it looks a one horse race because if SWISS PRIDE 6/5 reproduces its best speed figure it would win a shade cosily but I am quite sure it will be the hot favourite and might even be an odds on shot, it has won 5 and placed in 4 from its 11 c/d runs, I would look to see if there's any value in doing the forecast and only the bottomweight Evasive Power wouldn't be on my list as the 2nd placed horse, May Remain races prominently and could hassle the selection for the early lead and could do enough to hold on for 2nd place as long as it doesn't push too hard to stay with favourite, Apollinaire is my 2nd top rated but that time was recorded at Wolverhampton and hasn't run over this distance on this surface, Last Page and Cappananty Con are only separated by 1lb but the former's time comes from 2020 whilst the latter did record its best time this year but it looks likely to be the 2nd favourite so maybe not any value in doing the forecast, I will back the selection if its not odds on but would leave it alone if it wasn't of value.

Swiss Pride 9/4 2nd -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

Sunday, 2 May 2021

2:11 Bath Racing Tips (3rd May)

BATH 2.11 

A six runner dash with two known front runners and one of them Michaels Choice is my 3rd top rated on recent times and 4th top overall, I will look to lay Bay Watch who may need further to show its best form and its best time over this distance doesn't put it in my top 4 ratings, Secfetfact comes out 4th top on recent times but 3rd top overall, Second Collection is my 2nd top rated using a time from Windsor last year but hasn't shown much in its four runs this year, my money will be riding on UNION ROSE 9/2 who is my top rated on just 2021 times but that is only good enough 4th top overall but has a time over this c/d from 2020 that makes it my top rated and it is the other possible pacesetter and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and has good trainer/jockey stats so I'm hoping that is a positive for their chance in this race. 

Union Rose 8/1 6th -1pt

Total -1pt

BATH 3.56 

Another six runner dash and again there's two known front runners, I would look to lay Cherish as it usually handicaps itself by being slowly away, Arzaak could lead but has poor trainer/jockey stats it does come out 3rd best on my figures, the other front runner is THEGREYVTRAIN 10/3 who with its apprentices 5lb claim only 1lb off of top spot and will be carrying some of my money, top rated is Katherine Place but it is held by my selection on their last run and the trainer has a poor 1-23 win ratio with their older horses at this course which is off-putting, looking at the jockey stats it is the opposite with a good 20% win ratio, I will go with the form from their last race and hope that the selection can lead from start to finish.

Thegravytrain 10/3 6th -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

Saturday, 1 May 2021

2:10 Hamilton Racing Tips (2nd May)

HAMILTON 2.10 

A 7 runner race with no known front runner so it might not be run to suit Sound Of Iona my 4th top rated and Ventura Flame who are both hold up types and if there's a relatively slow early pace then the leaders could keep enough in reserve to repel any late challengers, Amazing Alba might not want the going to be too fast which is the same for Soul Seeker and this might also be better over further, Meccas Hot Steps has been placed in 8 of its 13 runs but time wise hasn't shown enough to register on my figures even on good to firm ground, and it looks like a weak finisher, Pavers Pride hasn't shown much time wise since 2018 which doesn't bode well, that all leaves me with ECONOMIC CRISIS 20/1 who is a 8 times a c/d winner plus it has a positive jockey booking who has a 26% win ratio on the stables older horses, there's not enough runners for 3 places so not worth doing each way. 

Economic Crisis 33/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt

HAMILTON 5.25 

Only 6 runners in this race but luckily there is one known front runner in the field, Rain Cap will be the outsider of the field and hasn't shown much and might need some cut in the ground to show its worth, Tanasoq might set the pace but I had to go back to 2017 to find a recorded time for this runner and might be worth a lay if of value, Kilconquhar might be better over further and comes out in 4th top spot, Yukon Mission is good enough for 3rd top spot and I believe its capable of improving on its best so could go well and its only 1lb below Pearl Of Qatar my 2nd top rated who I expect will be the favourite after winning last time out, my top rated on a time from Newmarket last year is FIRMDECISIONS 16/1 and it has an even better time from 2019, I have to admit it hasn't shown much in its latest runs, it had its first run since last October just over a week ago and if that's got it primed for this race it could track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the business end of the race and again there's only 2 places up for grabs so there's no value in going with an each way bet.

Firmdecision 16/1 4th -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

Friday, 30 April 2021

2:25 Newmarket Racing Tips (1st May)

NEWMARKET 2.25 

A 9 runner race with 3 known front runners among them and they my top 3 ratings so maybe a lot of horses wont be able to get involved in this race, Arecibo is my 4th top rated so could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast and fade badly, Judicial comes out 3rd best using a 2019 time but has been a bit below that level since then, Glorious Anna comes out 2nd best but those times have come in top class handicaps not Group races like today so may get outclassed in this race, I will be pinning my hopes on LAZULI 11/4 leading from start to finish and this one has good trainer, 29% and jockey 22%, winning ratios in older horse races and also has a more than decent 18% win ratio in Listed and Group races. 

Lazuli 3/1 1st +3pts (Betfair SP 4.52) 

Total +3pts

THIRSK 3.50 

A big field of 16 runners so another place up for grabs for the each way backers, both Mr Wagyu andThe Armed Man have been known to lead before and their best times only just see them missing my top four ratings, Dream Together is my 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, Benefit Street has a time from Yarmouth last year that would make it my top rated by a good few spots but that time is beginning to look a bit of a fluke where it got towed along in a fast run race and all its other times see it just outside my top four plus it has a poor jockey stat of 0-10 for the stable, so I will be backing FOX HILL 14/1 who has its best time from Leicester last year and the jockey has a 20% win ratio for the stable so might be worth an each way bet at the price. 

Fox Hill 14/1 Unp -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWMARKET 4.15 

There seems to be a lot of 7 runner races lately and here is another one, I am not sure what will set the pace which always muddies the waters, Embour won last time out in a slow run affair so may have been flattered and its best time which comes from 2019 would only see it make 3rd position on my own unique speed figures, 2nd top spot belongs to COUNT OTTO 9/2 who also won last time out but again in a relatively slow race but does have a much better time from 2020 which is only 1lb below CHIL CHIL 4/1 my top rated and both have good jockey stats making me think that both set of connections are out to win this race so I have no option other than to back both of them. 

Chil Chil 4/1 1st +4pts (Betfair SP 3.73)
Count Otto 9/2 6th -1pt

Total +3pts

THIRSK 4.25 

Eleven runners with 3 possibly 4 front runners in the field and 2 of them are in my top 4 ratings, I would look to lay John Kirkup, Cowboy Soldier and Shepherds Way if single figure prices, Saluti and Eeh Bah Gum are my joint 3rd top rated with the latter being a possible pacesetter, in 2nd top spot is Ready Freddie Go but that is using its best time from the AW over this distance at Newcastle, i will have a small, hopefully each way, bet on MACHREE 6/1 who is my top rated using both times from 2021 and 2020 and if on a going day is capable of leading all the way. 

Machree 6/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bets Cowboy Soldier +1pt

Total 0pts

DONCASTER 5.00 

A 7 runner race where the pace could be set by Danzan who is my 4th top rated beast, I would look to lay Via Serendipity who may want further and as so does Northernpowerhouse, my 3rd top rated is Triggered but that time comes from back in 2019, the top weight MOUNTAIN BRAVE 9/4 is my 2nd top rated on a figure recorded in 2020 so has to be respected but i will also be backing BLACKHEATH 9/1 who did record its best time in 2018 but hasn't any recent form over this distance as its been racing over further but its best time over this distance would see it winning a shade cosily. 

Mountain Brave 5/1 1st +5pts (Betfair SP 6.8) 
Blackheath 9/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet: Via Serendipity +1pt

Total +5pts

DONCASTER 6.35 

I will state right from the off this isn't a race to be betting in too heavily if at all, the early pace could be set by Aberama Gold but this one prefers some cut in the ground so keep an eye on the weather but if it does have cut I wont be betting, Edraak and Mokaatil have good speed figures but they were produced in lower class races, Lexington Dash has poor jockey stats, the value call in the race could be LAMPANG 9/1 who hasn't run recently on good to firm ground, which it prefers and the jockey has a 16% win ratio on the stables older horses.

Lampang 9/1 6th -1pt 

Total 1pt 

Total on the day +9pts

Thursday, 29 April 2021

1:00 Goodwood Racing Tips (30th April)

GOODWOOD 1.00 

Only 7 runners but a nice looking class 3 affair except for the lack of early pace, Minhaaj hasn't been in form so looks a likely outsider, Green Power hasn't shown anything time wise since 2019 and maybe another bigger priced horse, Top Breeze may find this distance too far if there is fast early pace so I'm not sure whether to lay it or not but if under 5/1 may be worth taking the risk, Concierge may prefer longer but time wise needs to improve to win this race, Open Wide is 3rd top even if I use its best time from 2019, Atlantis Boy usually stays on at the finish and is my 2nd top rated but I will be backing BIMBLE 5/2 who is usually hold up type so I am hoping there is a decent early pace for it to aim at and has good trainer/jockey stats making me think the connections are expecting it to get back to winning ways here. 

Bimble 5/2 2nd -1pt

Total -1pt 

MUSSELBURGH 3.35 

Another 7 runner race but class 4 this time, where my top 4 ratings all recorded their times this year but once again its a race with no known front runner in the field, Mid Winster may need further to shine so this race might not be run to suit it, Primos Comet sits in 4th top spot but doesn't want really fast ground, the top weight Victory Angel comes out 3rd best and is usually held up for a late run, Afandem my 2nd top rated is another that doesn't want really fast ground, I will be pinning my faith and money on FASHION ADVICE 7/2 who recorded its best time over this c/d and the jockey has a decent 18% strike rate for the stable. 

Fashion Advice 7/2 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHEPSTOW 4.00

Isn't a great race even for class 5 standards, anything I think will be a lay bet looks likely to be too big in price to be worth risking things, Major Valentine comes out 3rd best and Rainbow Mirage in 2nd top spot and both of them recorded their best times at Windsor this year, maybe even the same race as I've not looked as I analyse each horse separately, my money will be riding on VAPE 11/2 who recorded its best time at Salisbury this year and has made the frame in all of its last 3 runs on turf and has been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways. 

Vape 6/1 5th -1pt

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.55

This might be a class 5 race but its a nice looking one, there is 3 runners in the race that have been known to lead before so it should be a true run affair, there is very little between Good Night Mr Tom, Tomily, Jungle Speed, Oakenfield and Absolute Dream who are my 6th to 2nd top rated (not in ratings order I worked from the top to the bottom of the handicap) but I will have a punt, and it is a punt on HART STOPPER 13/2 who is my top rated using its best c//d time from last year, it hasn't shown much lately but it won last year on its third run of the year and this is its third run of this year so I am hoping that lightning will strike again this year. 

Hart Stopper 13/2 2nd -1pt 

Total - 1pt

NEWCASTLE 8.25 

Down to class 6 here and gladly there is a couple of known front running types in the race, the top weight Ventura Express is forecast to be the favourite for this race but I have a feeling it is a better horse over a longer trip and that would usually be enough for me to lay it but it is dropped in class in this race, it won over this distance at Pontefract last time out but that course is a lot slower than today's, in fact there's just over 3 seconds difference between them over the minimum trip and a horse covers 19 yards per second at this course so maybe I will lay it if poor value, I've got Quanah, Gorgeous Gobolina and Atyaaf as my co 4th favourites, Suwaan at the bottom of the handicap comes out 3rd best, Another Angel comes out 2nd best on its best effort from 2020 and it is one of the likely pacesetters, the other likely pacesetter is ROCKLEY POINT 7/1 who recorded its time this year which is always a positive and the jockey has a decent 15% win ratio on the stables older horses.

Rockley Point 7/1 3rd - 1pt 

Total on the day -5pts

Wednesday, 28 April 2021

3:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (29th April)

LINGFIELD 3.00 

Ten runners in this low class 6 race and there is 2 known front running types and one of them Big Time Maybe is just outside my top 4 ratings but could possibly do enough to make the frame as long as its not made to do too much by the other front runner and then fade, King Robert is 4th top and Lady Florence 3rd top rated and that's using times recorded this year so could battle to make the frame, LETHAL BLAST 10/1 is my 2nd top rated but it is the other known front runner in the race so could be very dangerous if allowed an easy lead and it is only 1lb below SOMETHING LUCKY 7/1 who sits in top spot and being so close between the pair of them I will be backing them both to cover the angles. 

Lethal Blast 12/1 1st +12pts (Betfair SP 17.73)
Something Lucky 7/1 4th -1pt

Total +11pts

MUSSELBURGH 3.25 

In reality I should probably leave this race alone as I have only 1 horse with a recorded time and that is BOUDICA BAY 6/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and being at the top of the handicap is taking on inferior animals, the trainer has a 30% win ratio with any aged horse he sends here, it improves slightly to 32% when looking at the stables older, 4yo+, horses, I expect it will be in the 1st half of the betting and anything bigger than 5/1 would in my opinion make it worth taking the risk. 

Boudica Bay 6/1 6th -1pt

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 6.10 

Not the greatest race even for a class 6 affair with just one known front running type although that one is better over shorter but You're Cool could go well if allowed an easy lead but its last win over 6 furlongs was way back in 2015, only half of the 10 runners have a recorded speed figure on my graphs but none of those figures are very high so the race wont take much winning Al Asef and Red Alert my 5th and 4th top rated but their times at another course/surface and the latter from 2019, Suzis Connoisseur sits in 3rd top spot using a 2020 time but seems on a downward spiral due to its age, Sir Rodneyredblood is my 2nd top rated and that is using a time from this year, in top spot is SIR HECTOR 5/2 and to help its cause they have employed a 5lb claiming apprentice who was won twice from the five rides for this stable so I'm hoping that's an omen for today's race.

Sir Hector 10/3 5th -1pt

Total on the day +9pts

Tuesday, 27 April 2021

3:50 Pontefract Racing Tips (28th April)

PONTEFRACT 3.50 

A 7 runner race where i will be backing the one that is my top rated and also the only known front runner in the race, the top weight True Mason might struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace so I will look to lay this one, Mr Orange hasn't shown much in its last 3 runs but has a time from last year over this c/d that would make it my 3rd top rated horse, Final Frontier seems to be on a downward spiral class-wise but does have a time from last year that puts it in 2nd top spot but will be hoping that HIGHLY SPRUNG 11/2 can get away smartly and then lead all the way to the line, it has good trainer and jockey stats as both have an 18% win ratios.

Highly Sprung 11/2 2nd -1pts

Total -1pt 

ASCOT 4.30 

A class 4 race with 11 runners and being a 5 furlong dash there's 4 known front runners, I cannot see anything I could lay with any confidence, I've got 5 horses rated within 6lbs at the top of my speed figures, Saaheq is 5th best but that was using a time from 2019 but is in good form having won 7 days ago, Diligent Lady in 4th top spot along with Outrage and Kick On Kick On in joint 2nd top position are all possible pacesetters so it should be truly fast early pace and they might go off a bit too fast and this is a very stiff course so they might play into the hands of ROSE HIP 8/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely at the business end of the race and is dropped in class compared to where it was running last year and hopefully its run 12 days ago will have put it spot on fitness wise for this race. 

Rose Hip 8/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt

PONTEFRACT 5.30 

This looks a tricky race with just 2 horses with recorded (fast enough) figures on my graphs and both of them are pretty low ratings, the top weight Fard has been known to lead before and it is one of the two horses in the race with a recorded time and it was from this year at Windsor, I would need a price of 11/2 at least before it would be worth taking the risk so if not this race is maybe best left alone. 

CHELMSFORD 6.40 

It is a shame there is only 7 runners but there is front runners among them, Show Me A Sunset may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace so I will look to lay it while Eagle Creek seems to want further to show its best so another I could lay, Araifjan has a time from Lingfield last year that would make it top rated by 2lbs but I am beginning to think this ones best time was a bit of a fluke where it got towed along in a fast run affair and might need further to win, I think Endowed is a possible pacesetter but races as though further might suit it better and might not have the pace to lead at this distance against my selection, One Hart will be running on at the finish and could make the frame but i am hoping that SPIRIT OF MAY 11/1 can lead here from start to finish, it was pestered on its last run and never got its head in front but a repeat of its run the time before that would see it back to winning ways and the trainer does well at this course.