4:20 Southwell Racing Tips (18th January)

SOUTHWELL 4.20 

A ten runner race with three known front runners, Mokaman is my second top rated on recent 2022/21 Tapeta ratings with ROYDMOOR 9/2 sitting in top spot so this should be a decent early gallop so a lot of these might not be able to get involved in the finish, on just c/d runs on this new surface here I have it very very close between The Thin Blue Line 3/1 and Bert Kibbler 5/2 who finished first and third when they met last time out but there is only 5lbs between this time compared to 10lbs last time they met so the former should win this battle this time (if only things were that simple), the former hasn't any other data at either Newcastle or Wolverhampton to work with, so will need to improve for the switch to this course, while the latter comes out third best using its best figure from Wolverhampton but that is a few spots below Roydmoor who will therefore be carrying my money. 

SOUTHWELL 4.50 Div I 

The early pace to this race might be set by May The Sixth who comes out in third top spot on my speed figures but its been out of form in its latest runs and I think it will be an outsider, Rhubarb who is my fourth top rated may be better over further but may run on at the finish to make the frame, in second top spot comes Brandy Station but this one is another that hasn't shown much form wise in recent runs which leaves me with the top rated QAARAAT 5/1 who comes out top on both Tapeta ratings from elsewhere and on recent course and distance ratings but I am never confident when backing this horse who is a rule unto its self, you write it off and it runs well while if you bank on it it doesn't quite do the business but i cannot see an alternative to back so I will have to back it to a small stake. 

SOUTHWELL 5.20 Div II

There are three possible pacesetters to this race where Bernard Speirpoint 2/1 may do best but I think the leaders will be setting the race up for a finishing type so at the price I will probably look to lay it, Papas Girl 4/1 is my top rated on just recent course and distance times but has only one previous run at this distance on the Tapeta surface where it was held up in a fast run race and never got to the leaders, today's opposition gives it a chance to be much closer and then stay on strongly at the finish but the trainers 1-13 and the jockeys 1-24 doesn't fill me with enough confidence to make it a bet especially at such a short price, Cometh The Man comes out third best on Tapeta times from elsewhere and may be better when racing over further so may not get to the front in time in this race but could make the frame, Raabeh 33/1 comes out in top spot but is still a maiden after twenty three races and may have been flattered with its best rating where probably getting towed along in a fast run affair and the betting shows that the bookies agree with my reasoning, YOU'RE COOL 6/1 from stall nine may be able to follow Bernard Speirpoint form stall ten across to the rails and get a good early position from which to attack late on. 

SOUTHWELL 7.50 

Quite a hard race to analyse to a conclusion with quite a few lightly raced sorts in the race especially with no recognised front runners in the race, I am not sure I can find anything, again, at a single figure price, that I could lay. Aces 6/1 a hold up type comes out fourth best on my figures but this race might not be run to suit this one unless something unexpectedly goes off fast and sets a really fast gallop for this class of race, if I use a time from 2020 then Fircombe Hall comes out second best using a rating recorded at Newcastle but against it is that its another hold up type so may be suited to this race, my top rated is Independence Day but its been over three years since this one last won a race and has only ever won twice from over fifty runs, my top rated on just new times over this course and distance is DEEVIOUS BEAU 9/1 and it is also 3rd top rated on Tapeta speed figures from either Newcastle or Wolverhampton, it can either be held up or track the leaders, has good trainer/jockey stats and will be carrying my money but only a small stake.

5:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (17th January)

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 

IMPEACH 3/1 one of four known front runners in this race but stall eight isn't ideal and would need to improve time wise to win this race although it hasn't any distance form on the Tapeta surface but at the price I would look to lay it. 

PATSY FAGAN 11/4 usually races in midfield or tracks the leaders but its another that will need to improve time wise to win this race so another I would risk laying at the price. 

SEAS OF ELZAAM this one usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on well nearing the finish but I doubt this one can get to the front in time and may need further to shine.

TRIBUTA has led and won over this course and distance but it was a slow run affair so it might have been flattered by that result.

WATER OF LEITH 16/1 (EW) comes out third top on 2021/22 speed figures but has a rating from 2020 that makes it my top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish so at the price I will have to have an each way punt. 

PORTELET BAY is the third possible pacesetter to this race and it is second top on just 2021/22 ratings but that is only good enough for fourth best on my overall figures. 

CREEK HARBOUR 8/1 from stall two this one could gain control of the rails and a time from Lingfield would make it my second top rated but I am not sure this surface suits this runner so maybe one to lay. 

SECRET POTION has poor form in its latest runs and its one run over this course and distance resulted in a slow time which didn't register on my figures so another to possibly lay.

DESERT LIME 4/1 has the top rating on just 2022 course and distance times but that rating is only good enough for third top spot overall and may not catch the leaders but could make the frame but isn't what I would call an each way price. 

SUMMARY: There could be one or two runners to lay but the betting nearing the off time will decide which ones as for winning this race, Creek Harbour and Portelet Bay may do best of the front running types with Desert Lime and WATER OF LEITH 16/1 (EW) known to stay on strongly at the finish and the latter who is my top rated using a speed figure it recorded here in 2020 will be carrying my money hoping it finishes the stronger in the closing stages.

Lay bets must be priced single figure odds 

Water Of Leith 16/1 2nd +2.2pts

Lay bets Impeach +1pt, Patsy Fagan +1pt

Total +4.2pts

Total on the day +4.2pts   

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2:20 Newcastle Racing Tips (13th January)

NEWCASTLE 2.20 

SCALE FORCE hasn't any form over this course and distance and might prefer further plus I am not sure this surface will suit it but I think it will be an outsider. 

TISTAAHAL has only ran four times but hasn't won a race and the trainer is 0-13 in the last 2 weeks and another that I think will be a double figure price. 

KAAFY has only 1 run over this course and distance which didn't register on my figures and I think a longer distance will suit it better so I would look to lay it at 11/2. 

SWISS CONNECTION 4/1 comes out in third top spot on my figures and could make the frame being one of two known front runners in the race and the one I think will set the pace. 

UBAHHA doesn't make my top four time wise but is the other known front running type but the trainer is 0-13 in the last two weeks and didn't register on my figures from a run at Wolverhampton but will probably be an outsider in this race. 

BLAZING HOT 3/1 has relatively low speed figures on this surface at both Newcastle and Wolverhampton and one I will look to lay it especially at the price. 

FOR PEAT'S SAKE 7/1 comes out top rated on my figures when i take the apprentices 7lb claim into consideration it could have a fast pace to aim at that it likes. 

STROXX 7/1 has decent jockey stats but its seventy days since the stable last had a winner and that's from forty seven runners and may prefer a longer distance and I would look to lay as long as it stays a single figure price. 

ORIENTAL LILLY 9/1 has only slow times since 2019 and this eight year old may be on the decline as showing nothing of worth since that year and another I would lay if it stayed on a single figure price. 

SUMMARY: I will be looking to lay Kaafy who is still a maiden after 7 runs and may need further to show its true worth, Blazing Hot has been in form but they have been slow run races and might get outpaced in this race so another one I will look to lay, my 4th top rated horse Stroxx is still a maiden after 13 races but could make the frame but I'm not sure it can get the win, Swiss Connection is my 3rd top rated and being a front runner it could prove hard to catch for a lot of these, Oriental Lilly is a hold up type who comes out 2nd best but that was using a 2019 time and has been way below that level lately so my money will be riding on FOR PEAT'S SAKE 7/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and i might have a smaller covering bet on SWISS CONNECTION 4/1 just in case it gets an easy lead and keeps enough in reserve to repel any late challengers.

1:05 Lingfield Racing Tips (12th January)

LINGFIELD 1.05 

EL HOMBRE is dropped in class to run here and recorded a good speed figure lat time out when it finished second and it is my top rated.

MOBARHIN has good trainer and jockey stats but hasn't run over this c/d before and its best time from Kempton needs improving on to win this race so maybe worth laying at 5/1. 

DEWEY ROAD comes out 3rd best on my speed figures using a time recorded at Chelmsford in 2020 and was only 3lbs lower in 2021.

LA ROCA DEL FUEGO the trainer is 1-25 at this course the jockey is 1-3 for the stable so mixed messages as to what it will do but its not for me in this race but could possibly lead.

BEZZA'S LAD 9/1 the 2nd of the 2 known pacesetters in the race and in stall 3, but would need to improve time wise to win this race and will be a lay if stays a single figure price.

CAPPANANTY CON the trainer has a poor 7% win ratio at this course but using a time it recorded at Kempton in 2021 it comes out in 2nd top spot.

THE COLA KID has good trainer stats with a 31% strike rate but the horse is 0-12 on its runs on an artificial surface which puts me off its chances.

DEPUTISE hasn't any recent course and distance form to its name and its best speed figure from 2020 isn't good enough to win this race but has a high rating from Wolverhampton.

MOUSMEE has only poor form to its name and would be a big surprise if this one won and I expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race. 

SUMMARY: As for what to lay in this race it will depend on the betting, Dewey Road, Cappananty Con and The Cola Kid have pieces of form and the odd speed figure which would make them competitive in this race but my money will be riding on the top weight EL HOMBRE 7/2 who is dropped in class to run in this race and has been found a good opportunity to go one better after finished second last time out. 

El Hombre 7/2 4th -1pt

Lay bet Mobarhin -3.5pts Bezzas Lad +1pt

Total -3.5pts

LINGFIELD 2.05 

STRONG POWER has won its last 2 races by flying at the finish and it could possibly do the same again here but on my ratings its a very competitive race and I doubt it will be a value price. 

LETHAL BLAST has poor trainer/jockey stats and its 155 days since the stables last winner but it could be the one to set the pace to the race and could go very well if allowed an easy lead. 

STORM MELODY this one has good jockey stats and likes to track the leaders but the stable hasn't had a winner for over 3 weeks which is a bit off-putting. 

LOTHIAN has poorish trainer stats, 83 days since their last winner, and the jockey is 2-93 for the stable but will be trying to run on strongly nearing the finish.

MICK'S SPIRIT has poorish trainer stats with a 6% win ratio but time wise its comes out third top rated.

HEY HO GETS GO has a good speed figure but not recorded when racing at this level so may be out-classed in this race. 

SUMMARY: The top weight won very well in a class 6 race and then last time out won a class 2 race both times with a devastating burst nearing the finish but its now in a class 5 race giving weight away to the field, is it up to it,I'm not sure but I wouldn't back it at odds on but dare I back against it, the answer is probably no so its maybe best to leave the race alone.

Total on the day -3.5pts

4:20 Southwell Racing Tips (11th January)

SOUTHWELL 4.20 

I am never quite sure what to make of these apprentice races where they carry whips but are not allowed to use them, if you are cleverer than me you perhaps know the answer to this question: Which horses respond to a jockey's urging without the use of the whip because I am certain some horses do not and will not give their all without a reminder or two from the whip so in all reality these races should be left alone but I might have found a nugget or two for this race. It is fairly close at the top of my speed figures and You're Cool, Brandy Station and The Tron could go well but the three of those trainers have not had a winner in the last 2 weeks which is a bit off-putting. The early pace could be set by Jean's Maite and/or May The Sixth but both sit just outside my top five ratings so could be worth laying during the race if they are in front. While Papa's Girl is 2nd top on just course and distance times since the new surface was laid but I do have MISS SEAFIRE 12/1 (EW) rated just a little bit higher and the 5lbs the apprentice claims could be the deciding factor although he is 0-3 for the stable but that isn't enough data to make it a reliable fact but the trainer does have a 22% win ratio at this course and 3-18 record in apprentice races so at the price I will go with an each way bet, my top rated on this surface, but at either Newcastle or Wolverhampton, is GLORIOUS CHARMER 13/2 and this ones trainer has a 3-14 win ratio in apprentice races, I will be backing them both but I cannot be betting too heavily in a low class apprentice race on a newly laid surface, so one win bet and one each way is the way I will be going in this race along with a lay on Gossip 8/1 if it stays a single figure price.

Miss Seafire 20/1 2nd +4pts 

Glorious Charmer 9/1 6th -1pt

Total +3pts 

SOUTHWELL 7.50 

The lack of early pace in this race could be a problem but I will be both laying and backing in this race, I will be looking to lay *Starter For Ten 11/4 who won last time out but that speed figure is only good enough for 4th top spot and is therefore poor value, so it only takes one of my top 3 to run to their best then it cannot win and as its forecast to be the favourite it would be of poor value to back, I will also look to lay Toptime 13/2 who won at Kempton but that also was a slow run race so both of them might have been flattered. Ginato is actually my 2nd top rated but it has poor trainer/jockey stats and the stable hasn't had a winner for over two months which puts me off its chances and stall 12 could be the deciding factor on why I will not be backing this runner, DEEVIOUS BEAU 8/1 is my 3rd top rated and the trainer is 3-6 for the last two weeks, so is in good form, the trainer also has a good 21% strike-rate at this course and the jockey has a 22% win ratio for the stable so has to carry some of my money but I do have STORM OVER 33/1 (EW) rated higher and if it had been in good form it might have been my sole selection but it can spring back to form without warning so I cannot let it run without some of my money riding on it each way especially at such a big price.

*NR

Storm Over 33/1 9th -2pts 

Deevious Beau 8/1 Unp -1pt

Total -3pts

Total on the day 0pts

Lay bets must be single figure odds at sp

6:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (10th January)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 

HURAIZ 10/1 has run recently on this surface but at Southwell and its best speed figure for this course and distance would leave it short of winning this race and might be a better prospect when racing over further. 

ORNATE 18/1 is one of the three known front running types in this race but this nine year old seems to be on a downward spiral and has been running quite poorly lately but its best from 2020 would make it my 2nd top rated but on recent form it has to be an outsider. 

IDOAPOLOGISE 12/1 hasn't any form on this course and may be able to show its true worth when racing over a longer distance and I think this is one that I will be looking to lay especially if its as low as the tissue price forecast of five to one. 

OOH IS IT 9/2 is the second of the potential pacesetters in this race but time wise it would need to improve to win this race but this four year old may be capable of improving so its one I couldn't lay or back. 

ATLYAH 5/1 this one is my top rated on just 2021/22 course and distance speed figures and that figure is good enough for third top on my overall figures, it has good trainer, 17%, and jockey, 22% stats so maybe its expected to run a big race here. 

CHARMING KID 6/1 this one is a possible front runner but only when its allowed an easy lead and can set a slower pace than usual which I don't think will happen here and needs to improve time wise to feature in this race and could be worth laying if a single figure price. 

SHOW ME A SUNSET 9/2 has a relatively low speed figure rating for a class four race and i think this one is another that will be a better prospect when racing over a longer distance and has only average trainer/jockey stats so might be worth laying at the price. 

ROYDMOOR 5/1 is the third horse that I think could lead this race, it has a rating which is good enough for 2nd top spot on just 2021/22 ratings but its best figure from 2020 makes it my top rated and could therefore lead all the way. 

THE DALEY EXPRESS 14/1 can be held up or track the leaders but it hasn't shown much time wise since 2020 and age may be catching up with this eight year old and I expect it will be a double figure price. 

ZAPPER CASS 16/1 has relatively slow times over this course and distance and I think that might be due to it looking as though a longer distance would see it in a better light and I expect it will be an outsider. 

SUMMARY: There is 4 horses that have been known to lead before although I doubt Charming Kid will be fast enough to lead in this race but I am hoping that ROYDMOOR 5/1 can lead and then prove too fast and strong for others that like to race at the fore and being my top rated using a 2020 figure it recorded at Newcastle but just in case the front runner battle too hard with each other and fade nearing the finish then ATLYAH 5/1 could be the one to prosper and it is my top rated on just recent, 2021/22, speed figures and has good trainer/jockey stats which makes me connections are expecting a big run from it and i will be backing them both in this race to cover the angles.

Roydmoor 11/2 3rd -1pt 

Atlyah 5/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -2pts

3:10 Southwell Racing Tips (9th January)

SOUTHWELL 3.10 

ABERAMA GOLD 10/1 its best rating on this Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton is quite a bit below what is required to win this race but its best over all rating on the Polytrack surface at Lingfield would make it my co 2nd top rated of 3 horses but I would look to lay it if of value. 

HELLO ME this horse is more than capable of reproducing its best speed figure but even that might not be enough to win this race but this 4yo is in cracking form and improving so could at least go well but at 11/4 it isn't of value. 

ASTRO JAKK has got good, 24% trainer, and 20% jockey, stats and is another of the 3 joint 2nd top rated horses in this race this time using a rating recorded in 2021 at Newcastle if getting a clear run from stall 10 it could go well. 

MOHAREB 8/1 is one of 4 known front running types in this race and started off as joint top rated using a time recorded at Newcastle in 2020 but the jockeys 3lb claim moves it to top spot so has to be respected and could go well. 

SOAR ABOVE hasn't run on this surface before and would need to improve time wise for the switch to this surface, it has pretty poor trainer/jockey stats so maybe this isn't its intended target. 

LOUIE DE PALMA is the 2nd of the 4 potential pacesetters in this race and in stall 4 it is nearest the rails of the front runners, it has good trainer/jockey stats but will need to improve on the time it recorded last time out over this c/d 24 days ago. 

FAUVETTE 4/1 has the plum stall 1 draw and usually likes to track the leaders so could get a good position on the rails just behind the leaders and ready to pounce nearing the finish and its another with good trainer/jockey stats. 

INVINCIBLE LARNE has poorish trainer/jockey stats and the trainer is 0-13 in the last 2 weeks and usually tracks the leaders or runs in midfield but would need to improve a little time wise to win this race. 

TEMPLE BRUER number three of the potential pacesetters in this race but has poor trainer/jockey stats and one i would look to lay if a single figure price, which i very much doubt it will be. 

REBEL REDEMPTION the fourth possible front runner but has poorish trainer/jockey stats and will need to improve time wise to be winning this race and will be one of the outsiders. 

SUMMARY: With the four possible front runners in this race it could be a fast and furious early pace and they might then fade and set the race up for one finishing from off the pace both ASTRO JAKK 8/1 and FAUVETTE 4/1 fit that bill and they both have the same speed figure so it might be down to which one gets the clearest passage throughout the race so I will be backing them both but if from stall five MOHAREB 8/1 gets to the front it could be the one to lead all the way so hopefully i will be able to dutch the three of them.

Lay bets must be single figure odds at sp 

Mohareb 8/1 1st +8pts 

Favette 4/1 4th -1pt

Astro Jakk 10/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet Aberama Gold +1pt

Total +7pts

Total on the day +7pts 

11:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (8th January)

LINGFIELD 11.30 

BUY ME BACK 11/2 is a versatile type but has just a slow time from its only previous c/d run last year and its best from here in 2020 and also its best from Kempton last year means it will have to improve to win this race and one to look to lay.

ALABLAQ 3/1 hasn't any form at all on this Polytrack surface and looking at its form it might prefer a longer distance to show its true potential and its best over this distance but on the Tapeta surface leaves it just outside my top 3 ratings.

HELVETIAN 3/1 has speed figure from 2020 that would make it my joint second top rated in this race while its best from 2021 drops out of my top 4, so it could go well but I wouldn't want to rely on it reproducing its best. 

VAPE 7/1 this one hasn't any course and distance form to its name but its best speed figure from Chelmsford in 2021 would make it my other second top rated horse so it could go well but hasn't been in good form on its last three runs. 

COME ON GIRL 3/1 has a speed figure over this course and distance that makes it my top rated and it has 6lb better rating from Chelmsford this year, it has the stall 1 draw so should be able to stay on the rails and from a good position stay on strongly at the finish for the win. 

LUA DE MEL 16/1 didn't run over this course and distance in 2021 while its best from 2020 would leave it just outside my top three ratings but it is a front running type and could set the pace to this race and could do better if allowed an easy lead. 

SUMMARY: I expect Lua De Mel to set the pace with Buy Me Back making sure it doesn't get an easy lead but I doubt either can win this race, Vape and Helvetian come out joint 2nd top rated but if COME ON GIRL 3/1 reproduces its best rating it should win with a bit in hand. 

Come On Girl 3/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Buy Me Back +1pt

Total 0pts

KEMPTON 6.45 

APOLLO ONE 6/1 is one of four known front running types in this race but it might not have the pace to lead at this distance as further might suit it better, the trainer hasn't had a winner for nearly 300 days so I would look to lay this one.

EDRAAK 13/8 the only one in this race that doesn't like to front run and its my top rated on just 2021/22 ratings although it did produce that figure at Chelmsford and hasn't run over this course and distance before.

FERNANDO RAH 15/2 has good jockey stats but time wise it would need to improve a bit on its best time from Newcastle so may not be of relevance while its best course and distance time leaves it with a mountain to climb. 

FIVETHOUSANDTOONE 11/2 comes out in 2nd top spot on 2021/22 speed figures but it is only good enough for 4th top overall, it has decent trainer/jockey stats but i would look to lay this horse if a single figure price.

LORD OF THE LODGE 9/4 actually comes out in top spot if i use its best rating recorded in 2021 at Wolverhampton, it hasn't run on this surface before so I am not sure what to expect from this horses so neither a bet or a lay. 

SUMMARY: With 4 of the 5 runners liking to lead this could be a fast and furious race and they might push each other too hard from the off and then set the race up for the only horse that likes a fast target to aim at and EDRAAK 13/8 should have this race run to suit its style and will be carrying my money but I was hoping for a bit bigger price.

Edraak 13/8 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Apollo One +1pt, Fivethousandtoone +1pt

Total +1pt

Total on the day  +1pt

2:15 Lingfield Racing Tips (7th January)

LINGFIELD 2.15 

A poor turnout of just five runner for this class 2 race, there is two front running types amongst them in the shape of Marnie James and Ornate and of the pair maybe the latter will do best of them as it does come out top on my ratings using a time from 2020 while the former comes out in 2nd top spot on just 2021/22 times, Strong Power won convincingly last time out and deserves a shot at this level, Shallow Hal might be worth taking on if a single figure price as its usually better over a longer distance, the top weight Tone The Barone 5/6 is giving a lot away in this race as its official figure is between 12 and 19 pounds higher than the others, it is forecast to be the hot favourite but I am not convinced so maybe taking this one on with a lay bet is the value call in this race as you lose very little laying a hot favourite. 

Lay bet Tone The Barone +1pt (good work from Eric laying an odds-on to lose) 

Total +1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00 

Only seven runners in this race and again there is two known front running types, Jessie Pye and Notoriously Risky who comes out 3rd best on my figures so should do best of the pair, I'm not sure if there is anything of value to lay in this race so I will be having a small wager on the top weight INEVITABLE OUTCOME 9/2 who is usually held up for a late run and this race could be run to suit it. 

Inevitable Outcome 9/2 1st +4.5pts

Total +4.5pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 

This is one of those class 6 stakes race for horses with an official rating of 50 or less so in other words the bottom of the barrel, one piece of advice if other races follow the same pattern, the form in these low class races from class 5 downwards are much more reliable than they are on turf, I've no idea of why unless its the varying going that makes them impossible to analyse. I think Final Verse 5/1 needs further to show its best so maybe worth laying in this race, Glen Rosa my 4th top rated is a possible pacesetter in this race, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses, Captain Ryan is another possible pacesetter but it only comes out 2nd top using a speed figure from 2019 so I'm not sure if it can repeat that figure as its best from last year was way below that level, the other 2nd top rated is BLUELLA 8/1 and that is using a 2021 time and should be staying on in the closing stages of the race but I do have BLACKCURRENT 6/1 rated higher but in this ones case the speed figure comes from Newcastle which it recorded last time out last month and if able to reproduce that figure it would be winning this race a shade cosily and does have good jockey stats.

Blackcurrent 6/1 1st (dht) +3pts  

Bluella 12/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Final Verse +1pt 

Total +3pts 

Total on the day +8.5pts