11:35 Southwell Racing Tips (27th November)

SOUTHWELL 11.35 

There's only 7 runners and I still cant narrow it down to one selection and its a race where I will back the one I think will lead and one that likes to run on at the finish, Red Stripes is a possible leader but its form since after the lock down has been quite poor and it wont get an easy lead here, I'm hoping the early pace will be set by SLOWMO 5/1 who has a rating from Newcastle that would make it my top rated but its one c/d run in 2018 resulted in a slow time so not 100% sure what to expect, the other horse I will be backing is ARZAAK 2/1 who won last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here. 

SOUTHWELL 1.40 

This race is very close at the top of my ratings, Moveonup and Requinto Dawn are joint 4th top rated and could be trying to stay on at the finish while Dirchill and Crosse Fire will be trying to win from the front being my 3rd and 2nd top rated horses but I will be backing PUCHITA 13/2 who is my top rated and that speed figure was recorded this year and I do like it when this apprentice rides for the stable as he has a 17% win ratio on their older horses. 

SOUTHWELL 2.45 Div I

This is a poor looking race with a very limited amount of data to work with but the top weight does catch the eye, its due to run Thursday but I think this would be a much easier task for USTATH 9/4 to win its 4th race in a row and if it does run both days I will be backing it unless its too short a price. 

SOUTHWELL 3.20 Div II

This 2nd division is a little better in the amount of data I've got to work with, I have to say its not a race to be getting too heavily involved in betting wise and there looks to be very little early pace in the race, Trevie Fountain finished 2nd last time out but it was in a slow run affair, Phantasmal, Le Manege Enchante, The Golden Cue, Dors Toyboy and Hellofagame all have speed figures very close to each others and could run well but i will be relying on FIRST EXCEL 9/2 who has been known to lead when nothing else wants to, which could be the case here, and has a time over this c/d in 2019 that would see it winning this race cosily but the jockeys record of 0-12 is a little off-putting, I was hoping it would be an each way price so I hope it drifts a bit.

12:20 Southwell Racing Tips (26th November)

SOUTHWELL 12.20 

Only sprint of the day with 10 runners and most of them have very little data to work with and a lot have a slow time from just one previous c/d race so any stakes have to be kept low because the race definitely won't take much winning. 

The top weight Ustath is the only known front-running type in the race and it has won its last 3 races but the race it won over this c/d was a slow run affair and if allowed an easy lead where it can set its own slower pace then it could follow up as there's no doubt it is in cracking form but surely other jockeys will be wise to its tactics and will make sure it doesn't get an uncontested lead and then it could struggle to win its 4th race in a row.

Accessible is 3rd best on my figures and I'm hoping this one, who normally tracks the leaders, will ensure there's a fair early pace and could at least make the frame but it would need bounce back from being in the doldrums lately so that might not happen and the more I look the more it seems like the top weight could get everything its own way. 

I will take a punt on a couple that could spring a bit of a surprise, ARCHIMEDES 16/1 (EW) my 2nd who has to be held up to stay the distance and this race could be run to suit it and a repeat of a time recorded here earlier in the year over this c/d , which is always a positive, would see it in the frame will hopefully be an each way price. 

As will I hope PHANTASMAL 8/1 (EW) will be who hasn't run over this c/d before but it has a time from Newcastle that would make it my top rated and I will hopefully be able to back both selections each way.

Phantasmal 8/1 1st +9.6pts (Betfair SP 6.14) 

Archimeded 33/1 Unp (-2pts)

Total on the day: +7.6pts 

1:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (25th November)

LINGFIELD 1.00 

A class 4 sprint that is the only sprint race for older horses on the day and a poor turnout of only 7 entries and 6 of the 7 runners are 3yo’s so the amount of data available to work with is limited.

I would look to lay Cobra Eye who might be better on a slower surface, Princes Des Sables is a 4yo who has been out of form lately but hasn't run here before so not 100% sure what to expect, Brunels Boy has had only one run over this c/d which resulted in a slow time and its best time from Kempton would still leave it a good few spots off the top rated horses, Bowling Russian is a possible pacesetter in this race if fast enough to do so but does have the advantage of being drawn in stall 1 but is only my 4th top rated on overall figures but 2nd top on just 2020 c/d times, Dazzling Des is my 2nd top rated using a 2019 time and hasn't been near that figure this year but never say never although that is only 1lb higher than NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND 6/4 who recorded its best time over this c/d this year which is always a positive so has to be one I back in the race, meanwhile VANDAD 7/2 is my top rated on a time recorded at Chelmsford and is one of two known front running types in the race and if leading could be hard to catch and would normally be my bet in the race BUT and yes it is a big but, it is still a maiden after 11 attempts and 9 of those races has been on AW tracks including one slow run over this c/d, so I will be backing them both to cover the angles but admittedly there's not a lot of value as they are the first two in the betting.

Vandad 4/1 2nd -1pt

Newyorkstateofmind 6/4 4th -1pt

Lay bet: Cobra Eye +1pt

Total on the day -1pt

6:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tip (24th November)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00 

STAKE ACCLAIM 33/1 has a time from Lingfield, different surface, which wouldn't quite see it make the frame so needs to improve for the surface switch. 

ORNATE 10/1 could try to set the pace but wont be the only one and needs to improve time wise to win this race.

WATCHABLE 14/1 is my top rated on 2020 c/d times and 3rd top overall, it should get the strong pace it likes to aim at the only drawback is the stall 11 draw but could be an each way bet at the price.

ROYAL BIRTH 13/2 a versatile sort when it comes to racing tactics and is joint 2nd top rated on 2020 c/d times and joint 4th top overall.

VENTUROUS 10/3 has been in good form but hasn't any recent c/d form and its best time from 2019 would see it just outside of the frame so looks poor value and maybe worth laying.

VENTURA LIGHTNING 8/1 hasn't shown much at all this year plus I'm not sure this surface will suit it but never say never with a 3yo.

LEODIS DREAM 14/1 a possible pacesetter although stall 10 isn't ideal, it would need to improve time wise to win this race. 

LORD RIDDIFORD 10/1 this possible front runner has a decent draw in stall 3 in the make-up of this race, it hasn't shown much in its last 3 runs on grass but it is my top rated using a 2019 time and I'm hoping the switch back to the AW will see it bounce back to form.

TOP BREEZE 4/1 has the plum stall 1 draw but whether it is fast enough to get to the front I'm not quite sure and would need to improve a little time wise so maybe a lay at the price.

POP DANCER 9/2 this 3yo won last time out at this distance at Chelmsford and that time would make it 2nd top overall but its time over this c/d was relatively slow and they were both in class 4 races and this is a big step up to class 2 here? 

EL HOMBRE 12/1 only 6yo but seems to be on the decline although its best time from 2019 would make it joint 4th top overall. 

SUMMARY: I'm not sure Pop Dancer is ready for a step up of 2 classes but could go well being in good form, I will be backing 2 horses in this race firstly WATCHABLE 14/1 (EW)who is top rated on 2020 times only and could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast up front but if LORD RIDDIFORD 10/1 (EW) gets to the front and can repeat its 2019 time it could well hold on for the win so i will go with 2 each way bets at the double figure prices. 

Lord Riddiford 12/1 1st (EW) (+15pts) (Betfair SP 16.25) 

Watchable 20/1 Unp (EW) (-2pts)

Total: +13pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00

THEGREYVTRAIN 6/1 has got to improve time-wise on its best time which was recorded last year but being one of only 2 known front running types in the field is a positive for it. 

QAARAAT 5/1 this horse doesn't win as often as it should but does usually run a decent race but connections have found it an ideal opportunity here if it puts its best hoof forwards.

NAVAJO DAWN 11/1 this 3yo hasnt been in good form lately and its best run came last year at Newcastle but it was a slow run affair. 

PASSIONAL 7/2 is my 3rd top rated on just 2020 c/d times but drops down on overall figures and may need further to shine.

TROUSER THE CASH 3/1 this 3yo hasn't run over this c/d before but does have a Time from Chelmsford when it won last time out that would make it top rated but the trainers record of 0-69 at this course is off-putting. 

MYKINDOFSUNSHINE 16/1 has only poor recent form and i expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race.

QUEENS ROAD 25/1 has one slow time from its only excursion here and its best ever time from Chelmsford still wouldnt see it make the frame.

SUPERSEDED 8/1 the other known front runner but its best c/d time from 2019 wouldn't see it holding on for the win.

RED ALLURE 11/2 its win over this c/d was a slow run affair and may have flattered it and I'm not convinced this surface will suit it so maybe worth laying. 

RASPBERRY 50/1 has only poor form to its name this year and its best time was recorded it Newcastle and would need to improve a few spots to win this race.

SHEPHERDS PURSE 16/1 hasn't any recent c/d form to work with although its best from 2019 would make it my 3rd top rated overall so could go well. 

SUMMARY: A hard race to analyse but several horses have negatives of some sort against their chances of winning, I'm hoping today is a going day for QAARAAT 5/1 who has stall one to help its cause and hopefully it will stay on at the finish to pick up the early pacesetters

Qaaraat 5/1 1st +5pts (Betfair SP - )

Total: +5pts

Total on the day: +18pts

6:45 Chelmsford Racing Tips & Lay Bets (23rd November)

CHELMSFORD 6.45 

ALBUM 5/1 I don't think this is its favoured surface and needs to improve time wise to be competitive so maybe worth laying at the price.

HOLY TIBER 11/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish and is my 3rd top rated so could make the frame.

COME ON GIRL 7/2 is my top rated and should be staying on very strongly at the finish.

DAYSAQ 5/1 has no c/d form but has only slow times even when 2nd last time out and maybe worth a small lay at the price.

BLESSED TO EMPRESS 13/2 is my second top rated and is usually held up for a late run so could run into a place.

SIR HECTOR 9/1 is another hold up type but maybe too late to catch the leaders.

COASTAL MIST 14/1 has been in poor form lately and i expect it will be an outsider here SIX TILL TWELVE 11/1 has only 1 run over this c/d before, resulted in a slow time.

ELDELBAR 6/1 hasn't any form on this surface and will need to improve for the switch to win here so maybe worth a small lay.

BURNING SUN 10/1 slow times at all 3 courses with this surface so not for me.

CONCLUSION: I will look to lay (Album + Daysaq + Burning Sun) Holy Tiber and Blessed To Empress could be worth doing each way if of value but I will be relying on COME ON GIRL 7/2 who is usually held up or tracks the pace and then runs on strongly at the finish. 

Come On Girl 11/2 7th -1pt

Lay bets: Album +1pt, Daysaq +1pt, Burning Sun +1pt

Total: +2pts

CHELMSFORD 7.15 

SMOKEY 7/2 is my 3rd top rated on 2020 c/d times and 4th top overall.

BIG TIME MAYBE 22/1 a possible front runner but poor recent form and time wise outside my top 4.

MAJOR VALENTINE 28/1 poor form for a while now, could lead? but will be an outsider in this race.

KATH'S LUSTRE 6/1 possible pacesetter time wise not in my top 4 ratings so one I could lay at the price.

LETHAL ANGEL 7/1 poor recent form will try to stay on but maybe not quickly enough to win and another i would look to lay.

INDIAN PURSUIT 2/1 my top rated, track leaders and pounce inside the final furlong.

BERNIES BOY 9/1 my 3rd top rating but may need further to get back to winning ways.

JORVIK PRINCE 7/1 is my 2nd top rated on a 2019 times, possible leader who could make.

the frame.

SOLAR PARK 9/1 a versatile type and could lead but time wise wouldn't make the frame and could be worth laying if it doesn't drift in price.

JUNGLE BOOGALOO 22/1 has only poor form to its name and will be an outsider.

ORIENTAL RELATION 40/1 poor recent form and may prefer further.

CONCLUSION: I hate backing favourites but that exactly what I expect INDIAN PURSUIT 2/1 to be and looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to follow up its win last time out, it likes a good pace to aim at and with at least half the field been known to lead this race should be run to suit it.

Indian Pursuit 3/1 4th -1pt 

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: +1pt

3:25 Wolverhampton Racing Tip (22nd November)

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.25 6f Class 4 

STEELRIVER 6/1 is my joint top rated on 2020 c/d times and as long as stall 10 isn't its downfall it has been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways. 

WILEY POST 10/1 hasn't any form on this surface so not sure what to expect but would need to improve for the switch of surface to win this race.

STREET PARADE 18/1 the other joint top rated on just 2020 c/d times with the make-up of this race it might not be run to suit it, never say never but it doesn't seem fancied.

POYLE VINNIE 8/1 this ten year old has been a grand servant and form from four years ago would put in the mix but hasn't been in good form for a while now.

MYTHMAKER 8/1 this 8yo seems on the decline it hasn't shown much since 2018 it is the 1 known front running type in the race but there is a couple that will make sure the pace isn't a dawdle maybe worth laying at the price.

HEER WE GO AGAIN 14/1 its only run here ended with a slow time and i think this 3yo will be better suited when dropped back to the minimum distance and one I would lay if of value to do so.

ARAIFJAN 5/2 this 3yo has a time that would make it 4th top rated on just 2020 c/d times but has a time from Newcastle that would make it my overall top rated so could go well but not any value at the price.

ICONIC KNIGHT 3/1 comes out 3rd best on just 2020 c/d times but can struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace which looks likely here so looks way too short in my opinion so maybe one to lay at the price and trade out if it drifts.

MUSHARRIF 18/1 hasn't shown much time wise recently and with age it might now prefer a shorter trip, a change of surface or maybe both. 

PINK FLAMINGO 16/1 has only slow time over this c/d and its best ever time from Lingfield would leave it short of what is needed to win here and looks better over shorter.

MEWS HOUSE 20/1 hasn't run over this c/d before but its rating from Lingfield would mean that this 3yo would need to improve dramatically for the switch to this surface.

CONCLUSION: I think either Mythmaker and/or Araifjan will set the pace to the race but I doubt they will hold on for the win but they could go well, Street Parade could be in the mix if the early pace isn't too fast for it but my money will be riding on the top weight STEELRIVER 6/1 who likes to give weight to lesser opponents it has decent/good trainer/jockey stats and could visit the winner enclosure again here.

 

Steelriver 12/1 6th -1pt

Total on the day -1pt

2:20 Lingfield Racing Tips (21st November)

LINGFIELD 2.20 5f Class 4 

I can see 3 natural front running types in this field of 9 so it should be a nice race, I will look to lay Lomu who hasn't shown anything worthwhile lately as long as its a single figure price, Restless Rose could be thereabouts if reproducing its best Chelmsford time but this is its debut on this course, Newyorkstateofmind is 2nd best on just 2020 c/d times but that is only good enough for 4th top on overall figures but could make the frame, Saaheq is top rated if using a time from Chelmsford in 2019 and another making its debut on this course but i think the jockey booking might be to gain some insight for a future target but they wont turn down the win if able to do so, I will stick with the horse top rated on 2020 c/d times and 2nd top overall so VERNE CASTLE 7/1 is the one that will be carrying my money, the trainer has a decent record at this course which is a bonus 

Verne Castle 33/1 6th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30 6f 

Not the greatest of races but I guess a typical class 5 affair, I think Gowanlad will be a shorter price than it should be just because it won last time out over this distance at Newcastle which was a slow run affair so the win might have flattered it but being a 3yo it could give it confidence for today's race, the same applies to Rubia Bella who won over this c/d last time out, Sepahi is 3rd top on 2020 c/d times and 4th top overall and could make the frame, Lilklan is 2nd top on recent c/d times and 3rd best overall and does have the luxury of the stall 1 draw but for a horse that isn't known to lead it can be a negative in some ways but if getting a nice early position it could stay on at the finish, Mutabaahy has only 1 run to its name over this c/d in 2020 and its best time from 2019 would put it into 2nd top spot overall and is another that could make the frame, there is only 2 known front running types in the race and both are drawn in double figures so in the make-up of this race i am hoping from stall 13, the widest draw of all, LEZARDIEUX 6/1 can get away smartly and then track across to the rails and if getting ahead it ought to prove to be hard to catch and has been found a good opportunity to get back to the winners enclosure.

Lezardieux 6/1 2nd (-1pt)

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

6:15 Newcastle Racing Tips & lay Bets (20th November)

NEWCASTLE 6.15 

I have a couple to lay (Outrage 6/1 + Call Me Ginger 15/2) as long as they stay in single figure prices, the draw isn't of real importance here and the 4 known front running sorts are drawn in stall 7 or higher Captain Jameson is my 3rd top rated and a possible pacesetter but is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and comes from stall 7 and could make the frame, Kind Review could do best of those coming from off the pace while I'm hoping FANTASY KEEPER 5/1 can lead all the way here from stall 13. 

Fantasy Keeper 11/2 7th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Outrage +1pt, Call Me Ginger +1pt

Total: +1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.15 

This is a very competitive race for a class 5 affair, Be Proud may run better than its latest form and has a time from 2019 that would make it my 2nd top rated but recent form sees it drop to joint 5th spot alongside the front running Another Angel, the hold up type Ballyare is 4th top rated, the stall 1 horse Tathmeen comes out 3rd top and will be trying to stay on at the finish, my top rated is LORD OF THE GLEN 15/2 who is one of 3 in the race who could set the pace and has a good chance to get back to winning ways. 

Lord Of The Glen 9/1 8th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

With no known front running types in this race its hard to analyse, Herringswell, Fair Alibi and Epeius could all run well here and could be worth an each way bet if a big price but I will be taking a chance on BUCCANEERS VAULT 16/1 (EW) who is top rated on 2020 c/d times and that rating is also good enough to take the top spot overall prize, it usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely at the finish and at the price it has be to be given as an each way wager. 

Buccaneer Vault 16/1 5th (-2pts)

Total -2pts

NEWCASTLE 8.15 

A full house of 14 runners and 3 that seem to prefer to front run in their race Rockley Point is one of them and comes out 4th top overall and could do enough to make the frame, I've got joint 2nd top spot horses in Qaaraat and It Must Be Faith who both like to track the leaders and then stay on stoutly at the finish but I will be putting my money on ARCAVALLO 5/1 who is a front running sort and I am hoping it can lead all the way here and get back to winning ways.

Arcavallo 5/1 7th -1pt

Total -1pt 

Total on the day: -3pts

4:50 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (19th November)

NEWCASTLE 4.50 5f 

A full house of 14 runners with 3 known front runners in amongst them, I will look to lay Orvar, as long as its a single figure price, who hasn't been in form lately and not shown much time wise since 2018, all of these could run big races here, Watchable, El Hombre and Get Boosting, Venturous won last time out and being in form could run well again here and could make the frame, Big Les and Exalted Angel could be the 2 that set the early pace, I will be taking a bit of a punt on the 3yo BIRKENHEAD 17/2 (EW) who has only run here once before without showing much but its best time from Wolverhampton would put it in the mix while the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim moves it into top spot and it will hopefully be an decent each way price. 

Birkenhead 10/1 7th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

CHELMSFORD 5.30 6f 

A ten runner affair and at class 2 is the highest rated sprint of the day, the 3yo Aberama Gold is forecast to be the favourite but I am not convinced this course will suit it so worth laying, there's 4 known front running types in the race and my top 2 ratings are in that group, Katheefa could go well if reproducing its best 2019 time, Lipsink could be a bit of a hidden danger, while Poets Dance may do best of those coming from off the pace, Spirit Of May has got stall 2 which could help its cause but I'm siding with NIGEL NOTT 5/1 who could be ok from stall 8 in the make-up of this race and if getting to the front ought to prove to be a hard nut to crack and I think the jockey booking looks a positive. 

Nigel Nott 5/1 2nd -1pt

Total: -1pt

CHELMSFORD 6.00 6f Div II

This class 6 race is a bit patchy time wise with only 6 of the 14 runners have a recorded speed figure, I'm looking to lay (Daddy's Diva + Krazy Paving) if in single figure prices anything bigger and the value would be lost, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Vincenzo Coccotti who is a hold up type and will be staying on at the finish, the other is Rockesbury (non runner) who is one of 2 known front running types in the race and if getting to the front could be hard to catch but i do have one horse rated 2lbs higher so if *INDEPENDENCE DAY 12/1 (EW)

gets a clear run it could pick up the leader and at the price has to be an each way wager. 

*NR

Lay bets: Daddy's Diva +1pt, Krazy Paving +1pt

Total: +2pts

CHELMSFORD 6.30 6f Div II

In this 2nd division there's 7 with recorded speed figures but very little is over this c/d and or recent, I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in Isabella Ruby and *AT YOUR SERVICE 13/2 and the latter is top rated on just 2020 times so has to be respected and will be carrying my money, Illustrious Spirit is 2nd top rated using a Lingfield time from earlier this year but hasn't been in good form lately, with no known pacesetter in the race my stakes wont be at full strength. 

*NR

CHELMSFORD 7.00 5f 

Only a class 5 but a hard race to analyse to a conclusion in fact I will be dutching 3 horses, INVINCIBLE LARNE 5/2 is the favourite and could try to lead but from stall 8 but with 3 others that might try the same tactic it might get taken wide on the bend, it is my top rated using a Kempton time but this will be its debut at this course but if getting a run and taking to the track it could win but there is two 3yo’s in the race that could cause it some trouble nearing the finish who are both rated exactly equal so I will be backing both REASSURE 4/1 and ZULU ZANDER 14/1 just in case the top weight doesn't handle the course or the draw.

Reassure 7/1 1st (+7pts Betfair SP 10.14)

Zulu Zander 40/1 4th (-1pt)

Invincible Larne 5/2 6th (-1pt)

Total: +5pts

Total on the day +4pts

There's Gold In Them Hills?

Another day without any sprints to bet and I’ve caught up on all the work that needed doing so I started to look for new ideas/methods to add to my portfolio. 

This page, Eric Winner, was my first venture into giving people a chance to put an extra few quid in their pockets. Yes, I did it to help others but it did also cement my analysis in my head by writing everything down into a blog so it was a two-way street. I would still be giving out my thoughts on Facebook if I didn’t have someone to manage the page for me, plus Jason answers any queries or complaints. 

My way of dealing with complaints would be to just delete or block them! I do the work and give it out freely and it has made a profit every year so if people want to complain when I have a few losers they obviously don’t want the winners either. 

It’s strange people are quick to moan but very few leave a positive comments - a thank you goes a long way but seems to be an alien concept nowadays. The headline is my way of asking people if they think there is a golden ticket method buried out there somewhere hidden in the mountain of fakers. 

There are loads of adverts saying they can show you how to win big but my question is:

 ''Why would they sell their system if they are making a mint from it?'' 

Obviously, the more people are in the know, the shorter the price, and that alone can turn a winning system into a losing one. 

Yes, I do tell people my opinions so in theory I am hurting myself but as I start off early in the evening and place my bets early and with the “best odds guaranteed” it doesn’t matter to me what happens betting-wise so passing on my thoughts I am not doing myself any harm. 

I have recently been putting up some lays in older horse handicaps in races outside my sprint distances (so more than six furlongs). If you have been following you would once again be making a profit. I doubt I will ever get enough followers to make a difference to the prices and I usually lay them to lose a set amount, so the shorter the price the more I win. 

Every horse is priced eight to one or shorter, anything higher than that price loses it’s value in my opinion but I do lay at bigger prices in my sprint races. 

OK, so both systems make a profit but I have to admit neither are a get rich quick scheme so they fly under the radar of most people who want instant success and no losing bets. 

I am quite happy with that although, thanks mainly to Jason’s promotional work it has just passed the million views mark and if it wasn’t making a profit that figure would not have been achievable. 

What would happen if you found a system that made a profit of ten points a day then this would soon circulate and the prices would be affected. 

If anyone did find such a system I am pretty sure they would keep it to themselves. Most people think it is just a pipe dream but I am convinced if you dig deep enough in those hills there is a magical system waiting for you, so keep digging and good luck.