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Tuesday, 14 July 2020

2:40 Yarmouth Racing Tips & Lay Bets (15th July)

Great Yarmouth Racecourse
YARMOUTH 2.40 

Not a race to get too involved in, there's a couple of known frontrunners and I think this race might be won from the front, using my unique speed figures Queen Of Burgundy and Global Hope both have a time that would see them making the frame in this race although the latter best time did come from last year, Thegreatestshowman is another that could go well, I am hoping that my top rated CASE KEY 15/2 can lead from start to finish, it has a positive jockey booking and has been found a good chance to follow up here. 

CATTERICK 2.50

I should perhaps leave this race alone as there is a lack of data for a fair view of the runners, I've had a quick look through the field and the only known frontrunning type is BOSSIPOP 7/2 who won last time out and has been found an opportunity to lead all the way here and win its second race on the trot. 

YARMOUTH 3.10

There's no really enough data to work with for this race so there's not much I can say and I am at a loss to know what will set the early pace but DELEGATE THE LADY 4/1 looks to have been a good opportunity to complete the hattrick but I doubt the price will be very generous. 

KEMPTON 5.10

This is my main race of the day, no going to worry about on the AW tracks, as its the only race where I have enough data to form a true opinion. I can only see (Mr Buttons) who may find this trip too far as a lay, the topweight Vegas Boy tried leading recently which proved futile it is better when it tracks the leaders hoping they fade nearing the finish, the bottom weight Lordsbridge Boy is a frontrunning sort and its best time from 2019 would be enough for it to make the frame, The Right Choice has a speed figure from Southwell that would make it my top-rated by 2lbs but I am not convinced this faster surface will suit it but never say never with this one, my money will be riding on PRIVATE MATTER 10/1 who has been known to lead before and has the plum stall one draw and it is my top rated on c/d times and on this surface overall.

Monday, 13 July 2020

5:00 Ripon Racing Tips & Lay Best (14th July)

Ripon racecourse paddock lined with trees
RIPON 5.00 

A race that perhaps should be left alone, I would look to lay (Wild Flower who looks to want a longer trip + Storm Lightning who hasn't shown much lately and will be trying to stay on too late) Kibaar has a good time from 2018 but the jockeys 1-31 record for the stable is enough to put me off, Alba Del Sole likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly, my money will be riding on TILSWORTH ROSE 11/2 who is the only known frontrunner in the field and does have the best speed figure from 2019/20 so if getting to the front it should prove hard to catch.

Tilsworth Rose 15/2 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Wild Flower -8pts,  Storming Light +1pt

Total: -8pts


RIPON 6.05 

A poor class 6 race with 11 runners but only 2 of them have recorded speed figures but there is a couple of 3yo in the race which muddies the water as the race won't take much winning, also I cannot see who will set the pace, I could lay 5 horses (Jorvik Prince who may find this too far + as will Oriental Splendour + Harrys Ridge + Champagne Angel + Tigerinmytank may all need further) my 2nd top-rated is ROUND THE ISLAND 6/4 who will be staying on strongly at the finish while KODIMOOR 16/1 who is my top-rated likes to track the leaders and they stay on resolutely so it must be worth an each-way punt at the price, it would have been my sole selection if it wasn't for the stables 0-10 at this course with its older horses and the jockeys 0-4 record.

Round The Island 7/4 1st (+1.75pts)
Kodimorr 16/1 4th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Jorvik Prince +1pt, Oriental Splendour +1pt, Harry Ridge +1pt, Champagne Angel +1pt, Tigerinmytank +1pt

Total: +5.75pts
 

AYR 6.50 

There are a few lightly raced types with five 3yo runners and they could improve without warning, there are 2 known frontrunners in the race and they are my 3rd top and top-rated so they could do enough to win this race from the front, Cookie Dunedin has a time at Hamilton that would make it my top-rated but doesn't want fast ground, GLORY FIGHTER 7/1 and MR WAGYU 15/2 are the 2 front runners and I will be backing them both hoping at least one of them can stay on strongly enough to repel all challengers.

Mr Wagyu 15/2 3rd (-1pt)
Glory Fighter 14/1 7th (1pts)

Total:  -2pts

Total on the day: -4.75pts

Sunday, 12 July 2020

12:40 Ayr Racing Tips & Lay Bets (13th July)

Ayr racecourse winners
AYR 12.40 

Only 9 runners but at least Dodgy Bob should ensure there's a decent early pace and it could do enough to hold on for a place being my 3rd top-rated, I could lay 6 of the runners (Red Bravo + *Amelia R + Northern Queen + De Latour + Talk Now + Laoise) who will either not like the going, if its good to firm, or the distance, Burmeses Blazer is my 2nd top-rated but the trainer is 0-9 at this course and the jockey is 0-3 for this stable which put me off a fair amount, that leaves STAR CRACKER 11/1 who has a time from 2018 that would see it winning cosily but it's not a race where my stakes will be at full strength but it looks value to have a punt at the price. 


*NR 

Star Cracker 12/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Northern Queen -2.75pts, Red Bravo +1pt, De Latour +1pt, Talk Now +1pt, Laoise +1pt

Total: +.25pts
 

WINDSOR 1.35 

A competitive class 3 race with 3 known frontrunners among the 12 entrants, I will look to lay (The Cruising Lord 3 points lay who looks better over a shorter distance + Dirty Rascal 1 point lay who is the opposite and may need a longer trip) all 3 of the frontrunners could go well here especially Aljady and A SURE WELCOME 9/1 the latter could hold on against ARCANADA 7/1 this time reverse the form but it's very hard to split them as they were very close last time out and there's only an extra pound between them today, the topweight LOUIE DE PALMA 4/1 who is dropped in class to run here must have a decent chance and this one has a very good trainer/jockey stats which makes me thing connections are expecting it to go well here, I cannot split them and will be backing all 3 of them in this race.

Arcanada 18/1 2nd (-1pt)
A Sure Welcome 18/1 3rd (-1pt)
Louie De Palma 4/1 7th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Cruising Lord +3pts, Dirty Rascal +1pt

Total: +1pt

Total on the day: +1.25pts  


Saturday, 11 July 2020

12:00 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets (12th July)

All weather racing at Lingfield and tips
LINGFIELD 12.00 

Quite a nice 10 runner race for a class 6 affair, there's a couple of horses that have been known to lead before so it should be run at a good early pace, I will look to lay (*Nautical Haven who might find this distance too short + George Thomas who needs to improve timewise and hasn't made the frame in its 6 previous AW races) Solar Park could attempt to lead but would need to improve timewise to win this race but is the short 7/4 favourite which looks poor value to me unless allowed to pinch the race from the front but I think WARRIOR'S VALLEY 10/1 2 points win, will be the one I expect to set the early pace or at least contest it and is my top rated and could prove the stronger nearing the finish and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and does have what looks a positive jockey booking making me think the connections are expecting a big run in this race. 

Warrior's Valley 10/1 7th (-2pts) 

Lay bets: George Thomas +1pt 

Total: -1pt

LINGFIELD 2.35 

This 6-furlong race is devoid of known frontrunners although the bottom weight Tavener has been known to lead if nothing else wants to but its recent form hasn't been very good form lately and isn't a prolific winner on the AW tracks and it looks best in a lower class nowadays. I will look to lay (Requited who might prefer a slower surface and a shorter trip on this faster surface + Pedestal who is 0-5 on the AW and may be better over further) Pettochside has a good time from Kempton which would make it my top-rated but that course is quite different to Lingfield where its times have been slow, sticking with those that I know can handle this course I will be backing 2 horses, GARTH ROCKET 9/2 and EQUIPPED 11/2 who both usually stay on strongly at the business end of the race and both have good trainer/jockey stats which make me think both sets of connections are expecting a big run here.

Garth Rocket 13/2 (+6.5pts)
Equipped 11/2 5th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Requite +1pt, Pedestal +1pt

Total: +7.5pts

Total on the day: +6.5pts








Friday, 10 July 2020

7:00 Newcastle Racing Tips and Lay Bets (11th July)


NEWCASTLE 7.00 

A strange race for a class 3 affair but there are 3 known frontrunners so it should be a true run race, I can only find 1 horse to lay (Athollblair Boy) who might find itself outclassed as it has never won in this class before, the main strange thing about this race is STAXTON 9/2 and DANZAN 22/1 both are capable of winning this race but they are both from the same stable and have completely different racing tactics, Danzan is known to lead so stall 3 should be fine while its stablemate Staxton is drawn in stall 4 so should get a good tow into the race, on times alone I would side with Staxton but although the usual stable jockey rides it here Danzan’s jockey has a 22% win ratio when riding the stables older horses, I cannot split them so will back them both to cover the angles but theres another horse I have to mention and that is Exchequer 18/1 who is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and could stay on to make the frame but it does have to bounce back to form. 

Danzan 50/1 4th (-1pt)
Staxton 9/2 6th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Atholblair Boy +1pt

Total: -1pt
  

NEWCASTLE 7.30

There's 5 known front-running types in this race so it should be a fast and furious dash, as for lay bets I can only find (The Armed Man) who has been out of form lately and may need further to shine, of the frontrunners, You're Cool and Eeh Bah Gum could do best and could possibly make the frame from stall 1 Primos Comet should get a clear run and then stay on at the end of the race and contest others to make the frame, my money in this race will be riding on TABAAHY 12/1 who can track the leaders or be held up for a late run and this race looks likely to be run to suit its style and the jockey is 1-10 for the stable on the AW tracks and more importantly he is 1-2 on the stables older horses.

Tabaahy 12/1 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bet: The Armed Man +1pt

Total: 0pts

Total on the day: -1pt

Thursday, 9 July 2020

3:25 Musselburgh Racing Tips & Lay Bets (10th July)

MUSSELBURGH 3.25 

The Racing Post says the going at this course will be good to firm tomorrow but please check the going before having a bet as i am not sure especially as the other meetings at Newmarket and Bath are given as good to soft, I will look to lay (Gowanbuster 3/1, who might prefer further and looks poor value at the price + Boudica Bay 9/2 who doesnt seem to like good to firm ground) there is several that are capable of going well in this race, Robot Boy, Gamesome, Accessable and Economic Crisis, the only known frontrunner in the race is Suwaan and it could be very dangerous if allowed an easy lead and could do enough from the front to make the frame but I will be taking a punt on BASHIBA 17/2 who hinted at a return to form when finishing 3rd on its last run over this c/d where it was behind Gowanbuster, but the change in the going from good in its last run to good to firm here could be enough to tip things in its favour and then add on the jockeys 3lb claim helps even more and the apprentice jockey has a good 17% win rate for this stable on its older horses.

Bashiba 20/1 6th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Gowanbuster  -1.625pts, Boudica Bay +1pt

Total -2.625pts

Tuesday, 7 July 2020

5:40 Newbury Racing Tips & Lay Bets (8th July)

Newbury horse racing 2020
NEWBURY 5.40 

RED ALERT 20/1 has 4 wins and ten placed efforts from 25 runs on turf but it has only a slow time over this distance on good to firm going and maybe better dropped in distance.

EYE OF THE WATER 18/1 has 4 wins from 12 turf runs but timewise it has something to find as it doesn't seem to like the going to be on the firm side.

JUNGLE SPEED 28/1 has only 2 runs on the AW to its name in this country but its best was achieved on slower going and a shorter trip may suit it better.

SIR TITAN 11/1 has only slow times at this distance although it has been known to lead and may prefer a longer trip to show its true merit. 

SPIRITED GUEST 7/1 has a good time from Windsor on its last run which puts it joint 2nd top-rated on times since racing resumed. 

BUCCANEERS VAULT 7/1 has a time from 2017 that would make it my 4th top-rated but has been way below that level since. 

SALUTI 11/2 will be staying on at the finish but looking at its best times it will most likely be too late to catch the leaders here so maybe worth laying the win part.

ROCK BOY GREY 8/1 hasn't been placed in its four runs on turf and will be trying to stay on at the finish but again maybe not quickly enough to catch the frontrunners. 

TREACHEROUS 9/1 has a time from Goodwood last month that makes it my top-rated, it then ran ok on the AW and has quickly switched back to turf and has been found a winning chance here.

NORMANDY BARRIERE 6/1 has won 6 races before on grass but timewise it's lacking at this level and I doubt it can win this race.

WHELAN'S WAY 5/1 is the other joint 2nd top-rated using a Windsor time but this one may not want the going to be too firm.

RASHEEQ 13/2 another that doesn't appear to like really fast ground and that is the reason its times have been relatively slow.

EQUALLY FAST 20/1 looks out of its depth in this race and it also looks a better horse over shorter distances. 

SUMMARY: When I analyse these sprint races I have to assume that the horses will all run to their usual tactics and that all horses will run to their best, which we all know doesn't always happen but there is no other way. I will look to lay (Red Alert + Rock Boy Grey + Equally Fast) I am hoping the horse I will be backing, *TREACHEROUS 9/1, will get a good tow into the race being housed next door to one of the two likely pacesetters and then stay on the stronger at the finish and ought to be a decent each-way wager.

*NR

Lay bets: Red Alert +1pt, Rock Boy Grey +1pt, Equally Fast +1pt

Total on the day +3pt



Monday, 6 July 2020

3:55 Pontefract Racing Tips & Lay Bets (7th July)

Pontefract horse racing
PONTEFRACT 3.55 

The type of sprint that I hate as there are no known frontrunners in the race, it makes analyst very hard and I try to go through every scenario imagining each horse in turn leading. I will look to lay (*True Mason 1point + Shawaamekh 1point) I am not sure Walhaan will like the going, if it is good to firm, and may need further so it ought to be on my lay list but this 4-year-old could still improve also Golden Apollo won't be at happy if it is fast going and should also be on my list of lays in this race, George Bowen is my 3rd top-rated but has been in poor form lately, Watchable is my 2nd top-rated on 2019/20 times but does have a time from 2018 that would make it my top-rated by 1lb, but was nowhere near that level last year so my money will be riding on SUMMERGHAND 6/4 1point win who recorded its best time this year at Newmarket and has finished 2nd on its last 2 runs and has been found a good opportunity to go one better here. 

*NE

Summerghand 5/4 1st (+1.5pts) 

Lay bets: Shawaamekh +1pt

Total: +2.5pts  

PONTEFRACT 4.30

There's a few to lay here, (Mutanaaseq 2points + Jewel Maker 2points + Sheepscar Lad 2points + Henley 2points + Avenue Of Stars 1point) as for finding the winner I will be backing *MR WAGYU 5/1 who is the only known frontrunner in the race, it has the 2nd best speed figure for 2020 and the 2nd top figure overall if using its best 2018 time so could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead and it could steal the race from the front, MUTABAAHY 8/1 has poor jockey/trainer stats but has the fastest time for 2020, EPEIUS 7/1 has an interesting jockey booking and its time from 2019 would make it my top-rated, ROUND THE ISLAND 9/1 has the fastest time overall if using just 2019/20 times and the trainer does well at this course, I will go with dutching the 4 selections with 1point win on each of them. 

*NR

Round The Island 9/1 2nd (-1pt)
Epeius 7/1 5th  (-1pt)
Mutabaahy  10/1 6th (1pt) 

Lay bets: Avenue Of Stars -3.5pts, Muntaaseq +2pts, Jewel Maker +2pts, Sheepscar Lad +2pts, Henley +2pt

Total: +2.5pts

LEICESTER 8.15

This isn't a race I would normally bother with but there is only one known front runner in TEEPEE TIME 5/1 and it was beaten, after leading, by ALBA DEL SOLE 4/1 and on the revised weights for this race it should be much closer than the 2 lengths in their last race and I think the race should be at the mercy of these two so I will back them both.

Alba Del Sol 4/1 1st (+4pts)
Teepee Time 5/1 4th (-1pt)

Total: +3pts 

Total on the day: +8pts

Sunday, 5 July 2020

5:15 Windsor Racing Tips & Lay Bets (6th July)

WINDSOR 5.15 

KONCHEK has only slow recent times over this distance but has been tried in higher class races but has been out of form for quite a while now but would be dangerous if bouncing back to form plus it has good trainer/jockey stats so maybe they are expecting a big run here. 

AMPLIFY can be held up or track the leaders but would need to improve on its best time from Bath to win this race and also to spring back to form.

TROPICS is a veteran 12-year-old and I doubt it can find the improvement in time needed to win this race and may finish too late to7/ get involved in the finish. 

BLUE DE VEGA is my top-rated on this year's times and has an even faster time from 2019 that would see it winning cosily.

KICK ON KICK ON is one of the two known frontrunning types in the race and could do enough to make the frame but I doubt it can hold on for the win.

YIMOU has no distance form on turf and a slow time on its one attempt on an All-Weather surface and may need further to show its best. 

DARK SHOT the other possible frontrunner and has a time from 2018 that would be good enough for it to make the frame.

SPOOF this may not want genuine good to firm going so should be ok here but it would need to improve on its best time to win here.

SECOND COLLECTION hasn't any form over this minimum distance and may need further to show its best and its usual hold up style would scupper any chance here so will need to change it 

SUMMARY: I will look to lay 4 horses in this race, (Spoof + Dark Shot + Yimou + Kick On Kick On) the topweight Konchek may be capable of improving and could be an each-way bet, Amplify has good jockey stats but the trainers record with its older horses here is 0-10 which puts me off its chances of winning but it could still make the frame, as my data is only based on winners not placed horses as I wouldn’t back each way if I didn't think it could win the race, my money will be riding on BLUE DE VEGA 7/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and is drawn in stall 8 and should get a good tow into the race with the pacesetters being drawn in stalls five and seven.

Blue De Vega 5/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Yimou -4.5pts, Dark Shot +1pt, Kick On Kick On +1pt

Total on the day: -3.5pts

 


Thursday, 2 July 2020

1:15 Chepstow Racing Tips & Lay Bets (3rd July)

Chepstow racecourse scenic view
CHEPSTOW 1.15 

Just in case the going is good or firmer I will say my bets and lays for this race, I will look to lay (Pastfact 3 points + Mad Endeavour 2 points + Crimson Princess 3 points + Bold Decision 1 point) I think this race will be won from the front, bothKinglami and Creek Harbour are possible frontrunners and have the exact same rating on my figures so could make the frame but my money will be on JAGANORY 12/1 (2 points each way) who is versatile with its racing tactics and that includes leading but it the make-up of this race it could lead from stall 3 but then again it could sit in just behind the leaders waiting to pounce and prove the stronger at the finish. 


Jaganory 22/1 8th (-2pts) 

Lay bets: Pastfact -12pts, Mad Endeavour +2pts, Crimson Princess +3pts, Bold Decision +1pt

Total: -8pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30

In this 10 runner race I have marked 6 down as possible lays (Kyllachy Castle 2 point lay + *Valley Belle 1 point lay + Alba Del Sole 2 point lay + Chillon Castle 1 point lay + Potters Question 1 point lay + Simba Samba 1 point lay) my money will be riding on POPPY MAY 8/1 (3 points win) who is the only one known as a frontrunning type and could lead all the way here but One One Seven has a speed figure 1 spot higher but would need everything to fall right for it to pick up the leader if it repeats its best time. 

*NR

Poppy May 8/1 4th (-2pts)

Lay bets: Simba Samba -2pts, Kyllachy Castle +2pts, Alba Del Sole +2pts, Chillon Castle +1pt, Potter's Question +1pt

Total: +2pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00

Of the 8 runners here I will look to lay (Camachess 3 points lay + John Joiner 2 points lay) going back to 2018 Krystallite would have every chance but its 4 runs since then at this c/d have been poor so maybe best left alone, Precious Plum who has been known to lead is my 4th top-rated with Solar Park sitting in 3rd top position and this one will be trying to stay on at the finish, I've got joint top-rated, firstly Shepherds Purse who actually finds this trip a little too short for it to show its best but should be staying on but will need everything to go in its favour just to dead-heat this race if DARK SIDE DREAM 9/1 (2 points win) leads and runs to its best and this is one carrying my money.

Dark Side Dream 11/2 2nd (+0.375pts)

Lay bets: Camachess -9pts, John Joiner +2pts

Total: -6.625pts 

Total on the day:  -12.625pts