NEWCASTLE 3.45
I can see natural frontrunning types in stalls 1. 2 and 13 but the draw makes very little difference here, of these 3 maybe Rockley Point will do the best but it's not in my top 4 ratings, Landing Night comes out 4th best and likes to track the leaders as does Qaaraat my 3rd top-rated, in 2nd top spot I've got the 3yo Be Proud another that likes to track the pacesetters, my top rated is another 3yo in KYLLACHY WARRIOR 8/1 who can be held up or track the pace and the booked jockey has a good win ratio for this stable, the downside is that it is still a maiden after 11 runs but it is taking on slightly lower class horses here and it has been in the frame in 4 of its 7 AW races and I will be having a punt on it hoping it can break its duck.
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.20
This is a tricky little class 6 race and to be honest, I cannot narrow it down to less than 4 possible winners, Peachey Carnehan has a good jockey booking and I think this one from stall 3 will be the one to set the pace and could be very dangerous if allowed an easy lead, It Must Be Faith usually likes to track the leaders and has a fast time from 2017 but has been way below that last year and this, Miracle Garden can track the pace or be held up but hasnt been in good form lately so im not sure what to expect of it here and it might be foolish to ignore it, Brockey Rise usually stays on at the finish over this distance but is on a losing run of 11 ut could go well if the jockette is worth her 7lb claim, overall I think the safest call would be for me to back PEACHEY CARNEHAN 12/1 in case it can lead all the way and then also back BROCKEY RISE 6/1 in case the apprentice brings out the best in the horse and then have smaller covering bets on the other 2 horses mentioned
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.50
A class 2 race but its a bit devoid of early pace which always makes analysis tricky, Mokaatil is capable of running a fast time but usually in class 3 races so may struggle again here to win this race, Lancelot Du Lac could do enough to make the frame if running to its best but is on a losing run of 12 races, Desert Doctor won last time out at Chelmsford so is good heart at the moment and could make the frame but my money will be riding on MERHOOB 14/1 who is drawn in stall 1 so could get a good early position and then prove the stronger at the finish and the jockey booking looks to be a positive one and the price looks a little generous so I can go with an each-way wager.
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CHELMSFORD 7.00
This is a poor class 7 affair where I should probably leave it well alone BUT I backed a horse on Wednesday called KYLLUKEY 10/1 in a class 6 race and this drop in class could revitalise its chances, it was midfield and started to stay on nearing the final furlong or so but when it couldn't win the race it wasn't pushed and finished 5th or 6th and under a length away from making the frame so it turned out again quickly to run here I will be backing it again and at the price, I will back it each way.
Kyllukey 10/1 4th
CHELMSFORD 7.30
VERNE CASTLE has a time from 2018 that would give it a chance to win this race but has been well below that level so far this year but could feasibly make the frame if in the mood and the jockey has a 20% win rate for this stable and at 12/1 it is an each-way price.
JUST THAT LORD this one is my top-rated on 2019 c/d times and is one of four in this race that like to set the pace so stall 9 isn't ideal but if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch I was hoping for a little bigger than 9/2 but it has a decent chance.
ACCLAIM THE NATION this frontrunning sort has a decent record on AW tracks with 2 win and 3 places from just 7 runs, hasn't run over this c/d recently and would need to improve a couple of lbs on its best 2018 time and at 100/30 I would lay the win part.
SAVALAS is well drawn in stall 2 for a possible pacesetter but hasn't run on this surface before so could be dangerous if taking to the surface but I couldn't back it till it's proven itself and 11/2 looks a big mean in my opinion.
HELVETIAN hasn't any c/d form to its name and the trainer's poor 1-26 record at this track doesn't bode well and the jockeys 0-4 record doesn't help change my mind but looks a bit big at 17/2 to lay it.
MACHREE 14/1 hasn't any c/d form from this year to its name and the trainers 1-13 and jockeys 1-12 records don't inspire confidence but has a time from 2018 that would give it a chance in this race but not till its shown some glimmer of returning to form.
ENTHAAR hasn't any c/d form to work with but has a good time on this surface from Kempton which would make it very competitive and the trainers 18% win ratio and the jockeys 19% win rate with the older horses bodes well for its chances.
GRISONS has only a slow time to show for its sole run over this c/d and that seems most likely to be because a longer distance would help its cause and I would look to lay it especially at its current 100/30 price.
DYNAMO WALT 22/1 this 8-year-old is more than capable of winning a race but hasn't been in good form recently and hasn't won for over a year now in its 11 races and even its best from this year would see it out of the frame so not for me in this race.
SUMMARY: I think I can narrow it down to the 3 that have the best chances of winning this race, JUST THAT LORD 9/2 has the top figure from c/d 2019 times, stall 9 isn't ideal but if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch, VERNE CASTLE 12/1 would be dangerous if capable of reproducing it best time from 2018 and has a good jockey booking, ENTHAAR 13/2 has both good trainer and jockey stats to make me think connections are expecting a big run here and it could go well if capable of performing to its best Kempton figure on this course, I cannot see any option but to dutch all 3 of them to show a profit whichever one wins.
Enthaar 7/1 5th
Verne Castle 12/1 7th
Just That Lord 8/1 8th
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WOLVERHAMPTON 3.35
This Class 6 stakes race is quite poor.
Eight of the thirteen runners look to have very little chance of winning.
Rock Warbler and Sagittarian Wind could possibly be dangers as they both have what look to be positive jockey bookings.
Poppy May comes out third top on my speed figures. She has good trainer/jockey stats but stall twelve (12) isn't going to help her cause.
The early pace will most likely be set by Dodgy Bob from stall three (3) and its second top on my figures.
I will be backing CUBAN SPIRIT 5/1 who likes to track the leaders. Lee Carter's charge could get a good tow into the race from stall four (4) and stay on the stronger at the finish.
Cuban Spirit 10/1 5th
CHELMSFORD 5.50
There are four frontrunning types in this race so it should be a true run affair.
Young John has the best draw of these in stall four (4) but may prefer a slower surface.
The other three front runners are drawn in wide in stalls: ten, eleven and twelve. Roger Teal's Spirit Of May (10) is my fourth top-rated. Eye Of The water (12) is another that may prefer a different surface.
While the bottom weight Sandridge Lad comes out third top and is on a losing run of thirteen.
*STORM OVER 7/1 comes out top on just 2019 course and distance times so has to be considered as the possible winner.
However, I have *DOUBLE UP 17/2 rated a good few spots higher but this gelding's best time came from 2018. In his defense, Ian Williams' son of Exceed And Excel hasn't run over this course and distance so far this year (off course for 140-days).
Both horses have what look positive jockey bookings so I will go with backing them both in this race but maybe sways in favour of my overall top rated.
*NR
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CHELMSFORD 5.25
LOULIN has no form on this surface. Ruth Carr's four-year-old may possibly need a longer trip to show its best. However, I certainly couldn't lay it in this race.
SARSAPARILLA KIT is a three-year-old who could still improve and comes out fourth-best on my speed figures and should be staying on at the finish over this trip.
INVISIBLE STORM only has slow course and distance times and may need a longer trip to show its worth and worthing laying if priced 10/1 & less sp.
KYLLUKEY will be staying on strongly at the business end of this race for Charlie Wallis' stable and top-rated on my speed figures. This three-times winning son of Kyllachy has Jason Hart in the saddle which looks positive booking.
STORM LIGHTNING is another horse with slow course and distance times to its name and looks to need a longer trip to show its merit (so one to lay at 9/2).
SING BERTIE has slow course and distance times and hasn't won so far in its thirteen races and may need further. Derek Shaws' three-year-old has been placed three times from ten AW races but not for me.
ASK THE GURU could well set the pace but hasn't been in great form lately but could feasibly make the frame at 12/1 an each-way price.
REMISSION is another three-year-old who may need a longer trip but only has a slow course and distance time to its name. This gelding hasn't made the frame in its five previous AW races.
SPENNY'S LASS is my second top-rated horse and the apprentice's 3lb claim would make it top rated. However, it is a worry jockey Darragh Keenan has a 1-25 record for John Ryan's stable when riding older horses.
SUGAR PLUM FAIRY has no distance form to work with and is 0-5 on the AW tracks.
Another horse that looks to want further (so a lay if under 10/1) is TINA TEASPOON who is still a maiden after nineteen attempts. I doubt things will change for this mare in this race.
SUMMARY: I'm not going to be betting too heavily in this race although I've got negatives against every horse barring Sarsaprilla Kit my 4th top-rated, Spennys Lass who could set the pace but the jockey's record is a worry which leaves me with KYLLUCKEY 11/2 who will be staying on strongly at the finish if its past form is anything to go by so will be carrying my money.
Kylluckey 14/1 6th
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WOLVERHAMPTON 5.15
A race a little bit devoid of early pace.
Always makes finding winners harder.
Only Beryl The Petal has been known to lead before. This 3-year-old could be very dangerous if allowed to set its own pace then kick once in the home straight. However, it has had 6 previous AW runs without winning l though it has made the frame four times and this will be its first attempt at this distance.
Steelriver is running consistently well but maybe in the grip of the handicapper in terms of winning a race but could go well again.
Big Lachie has some bits of form which would give it some chance but its recent form has been well below par.
Bahuta Acha is my second top-rated and has been in decent form lately and I expect another big run.
My money will be on LUCKY LODGE 7/1 who is trained by Antony Brittain is top-rated on this year's course and distance times and has a decent record racing on the AW tracks with nine wins and ten places from fifty-three runs.
Lucky Lodge 8/1 4th
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15
There's plenty of early pace in this 5f dash.
Sir Hector who got demoted from first into second spot last time out. Charlie Wallis' charge has the plum draw for a front runner and could go well again and make it hard for a lot of these to get involved. I expect it will be to the fore of the betting but it won't get an easy time up front with stalls 2, 3 and 8 also vying for the lead.
They might set the race up for my top-rated horse QAARAAT 5/1 who has won once and been placed twice in its last three runs, admittedly it may need a degree of luck from stall nine but if getting a clear run in the home straight can hopefully stay on the stronger at the finish.
Qaaraat 7/1 7th
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LINGFIELD 1.30
Quite a competitive race for a Class 6 affair.
I can only find three horses that seem to have no hope of winning: Creek Harbour and Velvet moon have been known to lead when allowed to set a fairly slow early pace. While others will make sure that doesn't happen!
Majorette is a versatile type that has been known to lead. It comes out fourth overall on my figures.
The top horse, Aguerooo, comes out top on just 2019 course and distance times but third top overall.
George Dryden comes out second best using a 2018 time. However, this grey gelding has been terribly out of form lately and needs to show some signs of life before I back him.
Additionally, Daring Guest is joint second top on 2019 course and distance times and the 7lbs the apprentice claims puts it in the picture.
THE LACEMAKER 5/2, trained by Milton Harris, won last time out over course and distance. It was a slowly run affair. It ran a respectable time at Chelmsford, which is the same surface, and that would see it have every chance to follow up in this race. Unfortunately, it is a pretty short price.
The Lacemaker 3/1 1st
LINGFIELD 3.00
I hope all eight horses run.
I've got three horses marked down as possible lays in this race. Watchable likes to track the leaders and comes out fourth top on my figures.
Prince Of Rome hasn't run over this course and distance before. However, the colt ran a fair time at Chelmsford last year that would make it second top-rated. Richard Hughes' charge has got a significant jockey booking with Franny Norton in the saddle, so I expect it to run a big race.
Just That Lord is second top-rated on 2019 course and distance times. I expect this six-year-old to set the pace. However, trainer/jockey statistics don't inspire confidence.
GRACIOUS JOHN 7/2 is worth a punt. Ian Williams' son of Baltic King hasn't won in its last twenty-four starts and dropping down the handicap. Being drawn next door to the likely pacesetter it could get a good tow into the race.
Gracious John 7/2 7th
LINGFIELD 3.30
This should be fast and furious!
Five of the nine runners have set the pace before.
Green Door, drawn stall three, is third top rated. This front-running eight-year-old trained by Robert Cowell has good stats especially with 7lb apprentice Angus Villiers in the saddle.
Something Lucky is my fourth top-rated. He isn't a frontrunner so could profit if they go off too fast and fade badly in the closing furlong. I doubt that will happen but it could possibly stay on to make the frame.
I've got joint top-rated horses in Glamorous Rocket who is drawn in stall one (but this one's best speed figure was gained at Kempton and this is its 1st run over this course and distance).
WARRIOR'S VALLEY 9/1 is my other joint top rated. However, it's not drawn well in stall nine for this natural frontrunner. If getting to the front - could prove hard to catch.
I think the winner will come from these four horses and hopefully, I can dutch them all to show a decent profit.
I will favour the dutch bet rather than going with my top rated.
Warrior's Valley 12/1 9th
NEWCASTLE 6.15
A full house with fourteen runners.
It's a relatively poor class 6 race run over 6f.
I can only find one frontrunner so this may become tactical. My highest speed figure in this race is quite low. In fact, only four horses have a rating: The grey gelding Zebulon, who likes to track the pace, is fourth best.
Klopp comes out third best. This filly likes to be hold up.
The second top spot we have Global Humor who should be staying on strongly at the finish.
The top spot goes to the three-year-old ALMURR 7/1 who likes to track the leaders. Philip Makin's son of Dandy Man hasn't won in his last fifteen races but the booking of Ben Curtis with a 20% win rate for this stable brings further interest.
I will be having a small wager.
Almurr 7/1 7th
NEWCASTLE 6.45
This is a much better Class 6 race.
Again, there's not a lot of early-paced sorts competing.
I've marked eight horses as possible lays in the race!
Star Cracker is fourth top-rated. Jim Goldie's gelding and usually runs on at the finish.
Another hold-up type is Someone Exciting my fifth top-rated. There's only 1lb between them.
I've got joint second top-rated horses: Mightaswellsmile and Poppy In The Wind.
The former prefers other surfaces to show its best. The latter has a poor jockey booking with Luke Morris showing a 0-5 record for Alan Brown's stable.
LORD OF THE GLEN at 5/1 looks the best bet. Jim Goldie's four-year-old gelding is the only known front runner and if allowed to dictate will prove hard to catch.
Lord Of The Glen 13/2 2nd
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#WOLVERHAMPTON 6.50
TOP BOY comes out 2nd top-rated using a 2018 time and this is its first run here this year so could make the frame.
REQUITED is a 3yo so could still improve but I don't think this surface will suit it best and its best-ever time was recorded at Southwell plus not well drawn in stall 12 for a frontrunner.
ALICIA DARCY has only had 2 runs over this c/d and both were pretty slow I couldn't back or lay this runner.
LAUBALI is 3rd top-rated just on 2019 c/d times but drops out of top 5 on overall figures if others run to their best so it could possibly make the frame.
CHOOKIE DUNEDIN hasn't any form over this course and distance but has a time from Newcastle over this trip that with the apprentices 5lb claim makes it my top-rated and has a positive jockey booking. I fancy Keith Dalgleish's four-year-old gelding holds bright claims at respectable odds.
AWSAAF has only slow time over this c/d and the way it runs it might be a much better horse over a longer trip.
BAHUTA ACHA outside my top 4 on speed figures and it's another that also races as though a longer distance would suit it better.
DESERT FOX hasn't any c/d form this year and its 2018 time would put it outside my top 4 but looking even further back to 2017 that would make it 2nd top but I'm not sure that figure is reliable.
DARK SIDE DREAM hasn't any recent c/d to its name but its best time from 2017 would put it the mix if that time is reliable but does have the best draw stall 2 of the known frontrunners.
SPIRIT OF WEDZA the 3rd known possible frontrunner in the field but would need to improve timewise to win the race.
THE GROOVE this is another horse that should be staying on at the finish but maybe too late to catch the early pacesetters.
LANDING NIGHT has only slow times recently but its another one that has a fast time from 2017 so again not sure how reliable that figure is now.
MY TOWN CHICAGO hasn't any form on this surface at this distance and again one that might be better when tried over further.
SUMMARY: There are quite a few horses that could be competitive on some of their speed figures but my pennies will be riding on CHOOKIE DUNEDIN 9/1 it is a bit of a punt as its best time was recorded on this surface and distance but at Newcastle but I thought maybe worth it at the price and the booked 5lb claiming apprentice has a 20% win rate on this stables older horses.
Chookie Dunedin 9/1 1st
NEWCASTLE 5.00
EL HOMBRE could make the frame but needs to improve to win the race so a lay.
GLENAMOY LAD has poor recent form and a lay if value.
HEATH CHARNOCK not sure? it will like this surface so not sure what to think.
BRUSHWORK 2 runs = 2 wins and my joint 2nd top-rated.
BIG LES won last time out and could follow up here 10/1.
FENDALE this one may struggle to stay the trip so a lay.
SHALLOW HAL joint 2nd top but not been in good form recently.
DOC SPORTELLO on an old-time could go well here and a good jockey booking.
COMMANDER HAL has a good jockey booking but no form at this c/d.
HOWZER BLACK 0-3 on the AW but 3 places but debut here.
PRIMOS COMET a fairly consistent horse but better at shorter trips so a lay.
GLORIOUS CHARMER debut on this course but maybe better at 5 furlongs I could lay it.
KUPA RIVER could set the pace and maybe do enough to make the frame.
BLACK FRIDAY is o-4 on the AW and may need further to shine so a lay here.
SUMMARY: A tricky race so I will be dutching 3 horses, BRUSHWORK 2/1, BIG LES 10/1 and DOC SPORTELLO 20/1 the former is a possible pacesetter while the other pair will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish and quite good value to back the 2/1 favourite and then do 2 each way bets on the other pair.
Brushwork 13/2 1st
Doc Sportello 25/1 Unp
Big Les 10/1 Unp
NEWCASTLE 7.00
UNCLE CHARLIE may prefer further so one to lay.
BROUGHTON EXCELS this one may not like this surface so a lay.
DAHIK a possible frontrunner and it is its debut on this surface.
MI CAPRICHO hasn't any distance form on the AW but may need further so a lay for me
ELEUTHERA I'm not sure it will like this surface but not sure enough to lay it.
KOMMANDER KIRKUP will need to improve timewise to win but could go well.
I KNOW HOW has a slow time at this c/d and maybe it doesn't like this surface so a lay.
AQUARIUS a possible leader and could do enough to at least make the frame.
THE GREY ZEBEDEE another I would look to lay as this distance looks too far for it.
JEFFREY HARRIS my 4th top-rated so could go well here and has been in good form.
HERRINGSWELL will be running on at the finish and is top of my list plus has good stats.
MUTABAAHY 3rd top rated on c/d times, it is top if using a Wolverhampton time but out of form.
MARCO LEE has only a slow c/d time and looks better over shorter trips so a lay.
BILLY WEDGE looks as though further would suit it better so a lay.
SUMMARY: I'm hoping with early pace coming from stalls 9 and 14 my selection HERRINGSWELL 6/1 will get a good tow into the race and then stay on the stronger and the apprentice's allowance could swing things even more in its favour.
Herringswell 8/1 1st
SOUTHWELL 6.30
In all honesty, there are reasons why I could back half the field in this race. Two of them are the frontrunning types: Cross Fire and Whisper Aloud. Either could go well if allowed to dictate from the front.
Rock Sound is my fourth top-rated. It could be staying on strongly at the finish and has good trainer/jockey stats.
Airglow has the plum draw. He comes out third best and the apprentices 5lb claim moves it up to the joint-second top spot. Priced at 20/1 this gelding looks value so I would have a small each-way bet.
The original second top-rated is Espirit De Corps and another that will be trying to stay on strongly at the business end of the race. It could make the frame but not much value at 9/2.
My money will be riding on the top-rated ROYAL SANDS 10/1. This 3yo could still be able to improve and from stall 2 it should be able to get a good position on the rails, just behind the pacesetters, ready to pounce in the home straight. The jockey does quite well for James Given's stable. The Cool Silk Partnership buy a decent type of horse.
Royal Sands 10/1 9th
SOUTHWELL 7.00
The draw makes very little on this five-furlong straight. I think this race will probably be won by a horse either leading or at least contesting the lead.
From the onset, I've got joint fourth top rated horses in Catapult 15/2 & Moneta 8/1. Both both like to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish. They are just about an each-way price.
Arzaak fills the third top spot. However, it's on a losing run of twelve races which isnt ideal or inspiring confidence.
EESHA SAYS 6/1 comes out top rated on 2019 course and distance times thanks to the apprentices 7lb claim. It is a possible pacesetter from stall four and features decent trainer/jockeys stats.
The other horse I will be backing (it's a bit of a punt) hasnt any form on this surface but it has a good time from Newcastle. Also, run on a straight course. It is quite a few spots ahead of the field so if RANGEFIELD EXPRESS 8/1 does take to this surface it could be hard to catch being another frontrunning type.
Eesha Says 12/1 3rd
Rangefield Express 20/1 9th
KEMPTON 5.10
ROYAL BIRTH has a time from 2018 that sees it joint 5th top-rated but might find its stamina stretched in the make-up of this race. I would look to lay it if a single figure price.
LETHAL LUNCH 11/2 hasn't any distance form on the AW to work with and I think it might be a better horse when tried over a longer distance so another to lay at the price.
ROCK ON BAILEYS 14/1 is on a losing run of fifteen races without a win but it has a reasonable record on the AW tracks but would need to improve timewise to win here but this will be its first run at this course but it doesn't look fancied according to the betting.
SILENT ECHO 9/1 hasn't any distance form on the AW to its name and it races as though a longer distance would see it do better. Another lay bet if stays at a single figure price.
HARRYS BAR 5/1 is top-rated on just this year's c/d times and the trainer/jockey stats look good until you look at the jockey's record on the stables older horses which is a poor 1-8. In addition, this horse is a fan of a fast early pace that might not happen.
LADY DANCELOT 9/2 only comes out 5th top using just 2019 c/d times but it has a time from 2018 puts it 1lb ahead in the top spot and its record on the AW tracks is 2 wins, 2 places from 5 runs. David Elsworth has good trainer 29% and jockey 40% stats to its name.
POLYBIUS 13/2 won well last time out here but this is a step up into class 2 race. Timewise it was third-best on c/d times 2019 but I think this might be a bit too much for it and maybe worth laying the win part only on this horse.
TAWNY PORT 11/1 hasn't any recent course form to work with and it's one good time from 2018 is looking more and more like a one-off where it got towed along in a fast run race so a lay if it comes into a single figure price.
SHAMSHON 25/1 is second best on a time from Chelmsford, while its best over this c/d was way below that level and back in 2016. It's best wouldn't be enough so not for me.
TIPPERARY JACK 17/2 is a 3yo who has won twice from 4 runs on the AW tracks but all over a longer trip and things might happen too fast for it in this race and one to lay if staying in single figures.
BENNY AND THE JETS 16/1 another 3yo who might find both the class of this race and the distance too much for it to handle in this race.
SUMMARY: A nice competitive race with a few contradicting lines of form and times but I will be backing LADY DANCELOT 9/2 who has been known to lead before and it could get out quickly and then gain control of the rails and if doing so it could prove hard to catch, there's several that could contest the places but nothing I can say for sure is worth an each-way bet in the race.
Lady Dancealot 9/2 6th
