NEWMARKET 2.45 (7.0)
There are quite a few relatively unexposed types in the race so any stakes would be kept low, Lethal Angel recorded a time at Yarmouth last year that would make it my top-rated but its time at Newmarket this year was way below that level so I'm not sure this type of track suits it, the one that I will be backing with a small each-way punt is LUCKY BEGGAR 25/1 who prefers the fast ground and likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish.
I know I have said this on numerous occasions but please try to check if the going is equal or higher to the figure in brackets after the time of the race before betting, all my figures are done using good or faster going and mean absolutely nothing on the softened ground.
Lucky Beggar 25/1 Unp
DONCASTER 3.25 (8.1)
I will concentrate on my top 4 ratings, Acclaim The Nation my 4th top-rated is one of six known front running sorts in this race and drawn in stall 11, Laith Alareen from stall 10 is another possible pacesetter and my 3rd top-rated, The Daley Express is my 2nd top-rated and could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast and fade nearing the finish but my money will be on DAPPER MAN 12/1 who I'm hoping can lead all the way from stall 13 and an each-way wager looks the way to go.
Dapper Man 16/1 6th
BATH 7.50 (7.7)
A tricky little race especially over this distance of 5 furlongs and 160 yards and the problem is do i need a strong finishing 5 furlong horse or a weak finishing 6 furlongs, if the going is good to firm then PRINCELY 11/2 could possibly lead all the way here being my 2nd top-rated using a time from Carlisle last year so will be carrying some of my money, the 3 at the top of the handicap could all be competitive Big Lachie wanting fast ground while Delegate This Lord doesn't want really fast going, the other one I will be backing is SWEET PURSUIT 11/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and should be staying on at the finish.
CHELMSFORD 7.10
TROPICS one of three in this race that has been known to lead before and it's my top rated on just 2019 times and being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice who does well for this stable.
CASPIAN PRINCE best drawn of the possible pacesetters on its 1st attempt at this c/d, it would need to improve for the switch to win so not for me in this race.
CORINTHIA KNIGHT the 3rd possible pacesetter and 3rd top on just 2019 times but it may struggle to lead here and hence struggle to win the race.
MUTHMIR I don't know why but it just hasn't been in form this year on turf and its 2 runs on this surface at Lingfield leave it with something to find timewise here.
ENCORE D’OR is 2nd top-rated on this years times and 4th best overall but not well drawn in stall 8 in the make-up of this race and one of 3 runners from the same stable and I've no idea which if any is their first string.
GRACIOUS JOHN this ones recent c/d time is well below par compared to some in this race but its best from 2015 would put it in the mix but not for me this race.
JUMIRA BRIDGE this ones best from 2019 only makes it my 4th top-rated but its best from last year would make it top rated overall and has to be considered as the possible winner and I'm hoping this is the stables first choice and maybe the apprentices 5lb claim can swing things in this one's favour.
PUDS this one hasn't any c/d form to work with and its best from Kempton leave it a few spots away from the top-rated but will be trying to stay on at the finish.
BLUE DE VEGA this one hasn't run at this course before but is 4th top-rated using its best Kempton so would need to improve to win this.
SUMMARY: What a cracking 5 furlong dash and quite a muddling affair going through their times on the 3 courses that have this surface, I will be backing 2 runners in this race, the topweight TROPICS 7/2 has to be one I back because it's my top rated on 2019 times and the apprentice booked does have a good record for the stable winning 21% on the stables older horses, Robert Cowell has 3 runners and I'm hoping I've found the right one with JUMIRA BRIDGE 12/1 who would win if reproducing its best time of last year at Kempton and could be worth an each-way wager.
Tropics 8/1 3rd
Jumira Bridge 14/1 5th
NEWMARKET 5.50 (7.0)
The bottom weight CENT FLYING 3/1 who won last time out has been found a chance to follow up here and deserves the opportunity to take on slightly higher class horses but I cannot discard the chances of NORMANDY BARRIERE 10/1 and 2 horses from the same stable because I can't work out if there's a top choice between them in the shape of *EQUITATION 4/1 and HART STOPPER 7/1, the best way to go maybe to dutch the 4 of them to make a profit.
Cent Flying 8/1 1st + EX £39
Hart Stopper 7/1 2nd
Normandy Barriere 10/1 7th
*NR
SALISBURY 2.50
JUST GLAMOROUS 4th best on this years times but the trainers 1-27 record here isn't great nor is the losing run of 18 that the horse is on which puts me off its chances of winning but could make the frame.
WASEEM FARIS has a time from 2018 that would make it 3rd top overall but only 5th on 2019 times but this years times was recorded here so could go well.
VEGAS BOY has only got slow times to show on its previous runs at this distance mainly because I think it needs further to show its best form.
PINK FLAMINGO a 3-year-old that seems to need g/f ground to show its best and even then it needs to improve on its best Brighton time.
ALFIE SOLOMONS another 3-year-old but outside my top 5 on its best time from 2018 and hasn't shown much so far this year and not for me here.
MERCENARY ROSE the 3rd of four 3-year-olds in this race it also needs to improve timewise from its Catterick time but that was recorded this year.
JOEGOGO comes out top rated on its time at Windsor last year, a possible pacesetter but the trainers poor 1-24 record with its older horses here.
GNAAD has a reasonable time from Ascot this year and the jockeys 5lb claim makes it competitive and it could make the frame.
TEXTING is joint top rated on my figures for 2019 using its Yarmouth time and winning last time out shows its in good fettle at the moment and has to have some chance of winning.
REWAAYAT hasn't any form at this distance looking as though further would suit it better and it also may need g/f going to show its best.
MAID OF SPIRIT joint top on 2019 times and top-rated on its best from Windsor last year and its 2 best runs have come over the minimum trip.
SUMMARY: Its certainly not a race to get too heavily involved in betting wise, my money will be riding on MAID OF SPIRIT 8/1 this 4-year-old has only raced 6 times, 4 over 6 furlongs but both of its best times this year and last year were both over the minimum trip, the only downside is the trainers 1-20 record with his older horses at this course but he does have an overall 16% win rate here but on the plus side I can also find negatives against most of those that on paper look to be dangers hence leaving Waseem Faris 16/1 and Texting 7/2 as its main rivals and I may have covering bets on this pair.
Maid Of Spirt 8/1 1st
LINGFIELD 6.00
ROUNDABOUT MAGIC comes out 2nd top-rated on my own unique speed figures for just 2019 but its best from last year would make it my top-rated but the jockey's record of 1-49 on this stables older horses put me off quite a bit but it could make the frame.
FAREEQ this ones 5lb claiming apprentice who has a 1-5 record for the stable moves it to 2nd top on just 2018 times and I do think it could make the frame.
COME ON DAVE is my 2nd top-rated overall using its best time from 2018 and its one of only 2 known front runners in this race then add on its prime draw it stall 1 it could lead all the way here.
OLOAUDAH has only produced slow times at this distance and may be better off over a longer trip so not for me in this race.
FAIRY FAST is a 3-year-old that hasn't run here before and its best time from Chelmsford says it has to improve for the switch to this course to win here but it is another that could go well if taking to this track.
REQUITED this 3 year also hasn't run here before and looking for clues in its other form it looks as though further will suit it better.
COOKUPASTORM this 3-year-old has only a slow time for Lingfield on its sole run on this c/d, I couldn't lay this one or back it and just hope it doesn't improve today.
GIFTED ZEBEDEE hasn't any form on this surface and has been out of form lately and I am thinking this surface might not be ideal for it.
FLOWING CLARETS has one reasonable time over this c/d but has been in poor form lately and may need a longer trip and is 0-12 on the AW tracks.
PHAROH JAKE and has the top speed figure for this c/d but isn't in great form at the moment but it is capable of bouncing back to form without warning.
SUMMARY: I think this race will revolve around COME ON DAVE 11/4 who looks the most likely pacesetter and is in great form winning last time out and may prove hard to catch for most of these if not quite all and I will be backing it but I will also have a smaller covering each-way bet on PHAROH JAKE 33/1 just in case this one does spring back to form and in my opinion, shouldn't be this big in the betting.
Come On Dave 7/2 4th
Pharoh Jake 33/1 6th
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.20
MUJASSAM hasn't any form over this c/d this year and its best time from 2018 leaves it a bit short so not for me in this race.
STEELRIVER had been on a long losing run and then sprung back to life and up till its last run it has been doing well but its best c/d time leaves this one a bit short of what's required as well.
THE GROOVE won last time out and should be trying to stay on strongly at the finish here but not in my top 4 ratings so another I won't be backing.
ZAPPER CASS should also be staying on strongly at the finish and its best time from 2018 would make it my 2nd best rated but hasn't been firing lately but never say never.
DI MATTEO this 3-year-olds best time from this year would make it 4th best but the apprentices 7lb claim moves it into 2nd top spot on all times so has to be considered.
HARRY BEAU hasn't run over this c/d this year and its best time from 2018 would make it my top-rated but it hasn't been near that this year and its losing run of 15 is a bit off-putting but it cannot be discarded from the list of possible winners.
LUCKY LODGE is my 3rd top-rated overall and that time did come from this year but this ones losing run is 17 which doesn't inspire confidence but it could go well.
DUKE COSIMO has only recorded slow times over this c/d and would need to improve but it has recorded a reasonable time at Newcastle on this surface.
PENNIESFROMHEAVEN another 3 year old but this one has only run 3 times and is making its handicap debut here and it did run on at the finish here over 5 furlongs but that was in a slow run race so it might have been flattered and I would watch the betting to see if this one's fancied.
CONCLUSION
THE END?
I have no idea why I put conclusion instead of my usual summary especially as I am struggling to narrow it down to just one selection but here goes, there is perhaps a hidden danger in the bottom weighted 3-year-old but I will stick with the proven, I think Zapper Cass, Harry Beau and Lucky Lodge could go well and may well will the places but the one that's 2nd top-rated overall and top-rated on this years is the other 3-year-old in the race DI MATTEO 9/4 is the one that looks the safest call in the race and will be carrying my money but you may have noticed I've not mentioned any early paced sorts in this race and for that reason my stakes won't be at full strength and I was hoping for something a bit bigger in price.
Di Matteo 5/1 6th
2:45 CHELMSFORD
ENCRYPTED has a time from 2018 that would make it very competitive and hopefully its fit enough to do itself justice here but the apprentice riding is making his debut for this stable so not sure what to expect.
MUTHMIR hasn't won in its last 9 runs and seemed way below its best when it ran last and I'm not sure if its really an AW type of horse and I would need to see some sign of a revival before I could back it again so not for me here.
ROYAL BIRTH hasn't any form over this course and distance and its time from Lingfield would see it needs to improve quite a bit to win this race.
WATCHABLE can struggle at this distance if there's a fast early pace but this race might be run to suit it but it would still need to improve to win this if others run to their best.
DESERT DOCTOR could be competitive in terms of making the frame here but others have more appeal as looking like being the winner here.
POLYBIUS is a hold-up type and if there's no fast early pace this one might get outpaced if it becomes a dash in the home straight.
UNABATED hasn't really shown much this year in 3 runs and cannot be considered until it shows some semblance of its former self.
BOY IN THE BAR hasn't any c/d form to work with and I have the opinion it might need further than this on this AW surface.
KATHEEFA recorded time over this c/d this year that makes it my top-rated but that was in a lower class race than this and my be outclassed here in terms of winning the race.
BUSBY has a decent time from 2018 that would put it in the mix but it's also another horse that may be out of its depth in this company.
CONCLUSION:
There's nearly 2 stones between top and bottom in this handicap and taking all things into account Desert Doctor has to be one to enter my calculations but I'm going to put a small bet on the topweight ENCRYPTED 9/2 who is dropped in class as it has raced recently in Group company and should be able to give weight to these easier opponents.
Just a few notes about 3 sprints on the turf which will be of interest if the going isn't on the soft side (I won't be holding my breath after looking at the weather forecasts for Friday and Saturday).
Encrypted 5/1 8th
REDCAR 3.30
I would only bet in this race if the going is good to firm and then I would back the frontrunning MR WAGYU 12/1 and LUCKY BEGGAR 15/2 who will track the leaders and then try to stay on at the finish so I will back them both to cover the angles.
Mr Wagyu 12/1 3rd
Lucky Beggar 15/2 7th
HAYDOCK 3.40
I really do hope the going is ok here because I'm quite keen on the chances of GABRIAL THE DEVIL 8/1 who is dropped in class here and has been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways and I will be disappointed if it doesn't at least make the frame.
Gabriel The Devil 8/1 4th
HAYDOCK 4.15
Not a race to get too heavily involved in betting wise but I might have been tempted into having a small bet on VEE MAN TEN 11/4 who is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice which would make it my top-rated but there's no way I will be backing it at that price.
Vee Man Ten 4/1 4th
CHELMSFORD 7.30
With rain forecast for the whole country, so I analysed 7 sprints for nothing, I will just post the 2 sprints for tonight on the all-weather at Chelmsford. There's plenty of early pace in this race with 3 of the 8 runners having been known to lead before and my joint 2nd top-rated YOU'RE COOL 20/1 is one of those that could lead so if doing so it could prove hard to catch once getting to the front so has to be one that I back with an each-way wager, Only Spoofing 9/4 is the other 2nd top-rated on its only run over this c/d but is 0-7 on all its runs on the all-weather tracks puts me off and looks poor value at the price and I'm slightly surprised its the favourite and I will look to lay it, my top rated is TOMILY 11/2 on both its Kempton and Lingfield times so if taking to this course in the same way it could stay on strongly enough to win this but I will be backing them both to cover the angles.
Tomily 6/1 6th
You're Cool 20/1 7th
See Eric's Secret Tip Here.
HAYDOCK 3.00 (8.4)
A nice 8 runner race with just one known frontrunner in the shape of GOODNIGHT GIRL 9/2 who is my joint top rated and this time was recorded this year at Windsor and a repeat could see it lead all the way here, Moll's memory is 2nd top-rated using just 2019 times and only 3lbs below the top pair and this ones trainer does quite well at this course especially with the older horses so it looks like they might be expecting big things but may have to settle for a place here, the other joint top rated is *LORTON 5/1 who did its time this year at Ripon and could be the one to be finishing best of all,I'll be backing them both, weather/going permitting, but my stakes will be tilted in favour of the front runner.
Goodnight Girl 9/2 6th
* NR
YARMOUTH 4.20 (7.4)
Only 7 runners but a tricky little race, the bottom weight Tan has a time from Brighton in 2018 that would make it my top-rated but this does look a slightly stronger race and these ones current form has been quite poor,Yimou and Hart Stopper could be competitive on some of their times in the last couple of years but neither have a time to compete with *ZAIN HANA 13/2 if this one repeats its time from Windsor earlier this year although the apprentice riding is making his debut for this stable so my stakes won't be at full power.
*NR
BRIGHTON 5.10 (8.1)
Down to 6 runners now and to be honest there's only one of them that I think I can discount completely but the edge in this race might go with those that like to front-run or at least contest the lead, KING CRIMSON 6/1 is a natural front running type and has the best time for 2019 which was recorded over this c/d and has decent trainer/jockey stats as does ENTHAAR 9/2 who is versatile with its racing tactics and can lead if needs be and this one has an even faster time but that was recorded at Lingfield, on turf, back in 2018 so I will be backing them both to cover than angles.
Enthaar 9/2 1st + CSF £20.63
King Crimson 6/1 2nd
NEWCASTLE 8.35
There's only 5 of the 14 runners that have a recordable time on this surface either here or at Wolverhampton but its a race where I cannot narrow it down with confidence to less than 4 selections, I will be having smaller covering bets on ASCOT DREAMER 16/1, THE BULL 5/1 and INGELBY MOLLY 25/1 mainly because there times were recorded at Wolverhampton and with the apprentices 5lb claim ROARING RORY 6/1 does move to top spot but only by 1lb but this one can struggle to stay the 6th furlong if the early pace is really fast hence why I will have to back all of them and at the prices available dutching them all does look the safest way forward.
Ingleby Molly 25/1 1st
The Bull 5/1 4th
Ascot Dreamer 16/1 Unp
Roaring Rpry 6/1 Unp
BATH 2.10 (8.0)
I'VE PUT THE STICK READINGS REQUIRED AFTER THE TIME OF EACH RACE BECAUSE THERES RAIN FORECAST AS SHOWERY SO IVE NO IDEA WHICH COURSES WILL BE FINE UNTIL NEARER THE TIME OF RACES.
A pity there's only 7 runners but hey ho there's still a winner to be found, Three Little Birds comes out 2nd top-rated using a time from this year and it likes to track the leaders, Coronation Cottage is only 2lbs behind on 2019 times but it has a time from 2018 at Windsor which makes it 2nd top-rated overall and it could try to set the pace, my selection and bet will be EDGED OUT 10/1 who has the best time from just 2019 and also the overall top rating and its another front running type and if this one gets to the front it could prove hard to catch I wish there was another runner so there were 3 places and then I would have had a decent each-way wager, if the going is ok, but with only 7 runners it has to be a win bet as there's not much value in my opinion with only 2 places up for grabs.
Edged Out 10/1 3rd
PONTEFRACT 4.50 (8.5)
In this race Suwaan is the most likely pacesetter and it comes out 3rd best using 2019 times while the bottom weight Red Stripes comes out 2nd best but Billy Dylan comes out 2nd best using overall times using a Ripon time in 2018, then Henley has a time at this c/d in 2018 that puts into the mix but the topweight MOVE IN TIME 13/2 recorded a time at Hamilton this year that makes it top-rated overall and will be carrying my money if the going is ok.
Move In Time 13/2 1st
BATH 5.10 (8.0)
A distance 60 yards short of being a true 6 furlong race and the only known front runner is Swanton Blue who is my 2nd top-rated on both just this years times and overall so could go well from the front if allowed to dictate but I do have CASE KEY 11/4 rated a bit higher and that's using a 2019 time, it usually tracks the leaders and then stays on the stronger at the finish.
Case Key 5/1 3rd
PONTEFRACT 5.50 (8.5)
There's 4 runners in this 12 runner affair that have been known to lead but none of them is in my top 3 ratings, MAGICAL EFFECT 6/1 comes out joint 2nd top using 2019 times only and then has a time from Ripon in 2018 that makes it joint top-rated overall, MR ORANGE 13/2 comes out top rated on just 2019 times and that rating is only 1lb lower than my joint top 2 ratings of which PENNY POT LANE 12/1 is the other one but this one hasn't shown much time-wise so far this year and to tell the truth I cannot split these 3 with just 1lb between them all using their best times and I will dutch the 3 of them.
Mr Orange 8/1 1st
Magical Effect 6/1 3rd
Penny Pot Lane 25/1 4th
See Eric's Secret Tips.
CATTERICK 2.30 (8.4)
I must admit this race doesn't inspire me with any confidence of the outcome despite having 3 in the field of 15 that have led before there's only 3 runners that have a recordable time in the last 2 years or more, Racquet is 3rd top using a 2017 time and would need to show a lot more than it has recently, Optimickstick is 2nd top on a 2018 time and both of them like to track the leaders, the horse I'm interested in is the topweight *PEARL NOIR 11/2 who has a recorded time from Nottingham this year and its time from 2017 would make it top of the pile the downside is the fact its on a losing run of 13 but 9 other runners also have double-figure losing streaks so my stake won't be at full tilt.
*NR
CATTERICK 3.35 Div1
This 1st division is very poor with no natural frontrunners in the lineup and only 3 with recordable times, Deeds Not Words is 3rd best but the trainers poor 4% win rate at this course and the jockeys 0-31 record make me question its intentions in this race, Kodicat is the only one with a recorded time from this year and its good enough for 2nd spot overall but this one is marked down as maybe finding 6 furlongs too far if there's a fast early pace and this course is quite a bit stiffer than Ayr, so my bet will be a small one on CHICKENFORTEA 10/1 who has a time from 2016 that would put it well clear in this race, then add on the 23% strike rate of the trainer and the 2-4 record for the jockey it makes me think it will be trying hard for connections in this race.
Chickenfortea 10/1 5th
See Eric's Secret Tips Here.
