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Wednesday, 25 September 2019

8:30 Kempton Racing Tips (25th September)


KEMPTON 8.30 

MY TOWN CHICAGO 6/1 hasn’t any form on this surface at this distance and looks as though a longer trip might suit it better than the 6 furlongs here so one I would lay at the price. SHEPHERDS PURSE 10/1 has a relatively slow time against its name and its 0-20 record on the AW tracks is enough for me to lay it if a single figure price.

SWANTON BLUE 10/1 this one hasn’t any course form to work with and its best from Chelmsford leaves it with plenty to find.

PAPA DELTA 5/1 is one of 5 horses that look to have a chance here, it hasn’t run over this c/d before but it best Chelmsford time would make it top overall. 

PERFECT SYMPHONY12/1 is the only one with a speed rating over this c/d this year and its best from Chelmsford would make it 3rd top and the 2nd one to consider as the likely winner.

THE LACEMAKER 33/1 comes out 4th top on Chelmsford times and its best time here from 2018 makes it top rated on c/d figures so number 3 on my list of possibles.

RAJMAN 40/1 this 3-year-old has one slow run to its name over this c/d and its other form points to it needing further than 6 furlongs to show its real worth.

CASARUBINA 7/2 looks forecast to be the favourite but it hasn’t any form on this surface plus I think it may need further to shine but never ignore a 3-year-old as they can improve without warning.

MAGICINTHEMAKING 3/1 has only a slow time to show over this c/d but comes out 2nd top using Chelmsford times and should be staying on at the finish the 4th one on my list of 5 potentials. 

KINGLAMI 16/1 number 5 on the list and using its best c/d time from 2016 it would be top rated but it's well below that since then.

ON ROUTE 14/1 a 9 run maiden who has a slow c/d time to its name and could be a hidden danger like many 3-year-olds.

MIAELLA 8/1 has only raced 6 times but its form has been poor and maybe further would suit it much better.

SUMMARY: As ive said theres 5 horses on my shortlist of potential winners but going through my figures again Kinglami looks the weakest but the jockey has a 20% win rate on the stables older horses so I can’t say no definitely, Magicinthemaking is another with a good jockey booking and only 2nd best by 1lb on Chelmsford times behind Papa Delta who is a hold up type of horse and im not sure this race will be run to suit it with only one known front running type in the race, Perfect Symphony is top rated on this years c/d ties but would need to improve to beat some of the others older times if they can repeat them but the horse which I will be having a small each way bet on is THE LACEMAKER 33/1 who is a versatile sort when it comes to racing tactics and in this race I expect it either lead or contest the lead and then it would have the first run on the field when they line up for home, the trainer has only sent out 2 runners on the flat recently with one winning and the other getting beaten in a photo so thats perhaps worth noting and one of those wins was at this course so let’s hope that’s a positive to its chances here.

The Lacemaker 33/1 Unp

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