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Monday 16 December 2019

5:10 Wolverhampton - You Can't Beat The Establishment at 20/1 (16th December)


NEZAR 20/1 has a time from 2017 that would make it my overall top-rated. However, this gelding may need the run for fitness after a lengthy lay-off but cannot be discarded and could go well after a break. At the price, he may be worth an each-way punt.

BAHUTA ACHA 5/2 is at the fore of the betting and could go well again. It might not be of value to back but it should be staying on at the finish but maybe only enough to make the frame.

SANDRIDGE LAD 15/2 is on a losing streak of 14 and may find the trip on this surface a little too far. He has only run once before over this course and distance and the jockey booking doesn't inspire confidence. I couldn't lay or back this individual.

TABAAHY 14/1 won its only AW start, which was here but over a shorter trip. Will he stay the extra furlong? I'm not sure. So neither a bet or lay. According to the betting, he doesn't look fancied.

AWSAAF 25/1 has only 1 slow time on its sole c/d run and I'm of the opinion that it might struggle to stay the 6 furlongs in a true run affair and it is an outsider.

TRUE BELIEF 8/1 hasn't won from 7 attempts on the AW tracks and would need to improve on its best Kempton time to win this race on its debut on this surface, neither back or lay. 

KRAKA 33/1 is my 2nd top-rated on 2019 c/d times and likes to track the leaders so the widest draw isn't ideal but could run on into a place so maybe an each-way punt at the price.

GOOD ANSWER 11/2 hasn't any form on this surface but has only had 2 previous AW runs and it would need to improve on its Kempton time to win here so again neither back or lay.

REAL ESTATE 10/1 has a couple of AW wins to its name and one of them was at this c/d but would need to improve timewise to win this race but not of value to lay.

THE ESTABLISHMENT 20/1 is my top rated on this year's course and distance times but they were earlier in the season. However, John Butler's four-year-old but has had three recent runs over a longer trip hopefully to get fit for this drop-down in distance. 

NAMPARA 20/1 hasn't an c/d form to its name and looking at other form lines it might be a better proposition when dropped back to five furlongs but too big to lay for me.

SPIRIT POWER 20/1 this one would need to improve on its best time over this c/d which it produced this year but may struggle to stay the distance in a true run race and again too big of a price to lay.

HIC BIBI 20/1 seems to do most of its winning in class 6 races not a class 5 like this race and it also might prefer further to show its best and an outsider here. 

SUMMARY: Quite a tricky little handicap to work out with three 3yo’s that could be possible dangers but I will, as usual, stick with the proven facts: 

Kraka is 2nd top-rated on this year's course and distance times but has only one win from 16 runs on the AW tracks. 

THE ESTABLISHMENT 20/1 is top-rated on this year's course and distance times but only by 1lb but being a frontrunner it could prove hard to catch if getting to the head of affairs and may have been readied for this drop-down in trip. I will be backing this one each way at big odds. 

Sandridge Lad, who also has been known to lead, has a time from Kempton that would put him in the mix but I'm put off by the poor jockey's record of 1-23 on the stables older horses. 

Top weight Nezar 20/1 may need this run for fitness. Dean Ivory's gelding would win this race comfortably if able to reproduce his best 2017 time. As he hasn't run over this course and distance since recording that time I'm not 100% sure what to expect but he may be a value each-way punt at the price.

The Establishment 33/1 Unp

Related post: Remember This Day When Eric Tipped a 25/1 Winner?

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