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Friday, 13 December 2019

7:00 Chelmsford: Kyllukey Makes Quick Return to Land the Odds (13th December)


CHELMSFORD 7.00 

This is a poor class 7 affair where I should probably leave it well alone BUT I backed a horse on Wednesday called KYLLUKEY 10/1 in a class 6 race and this drop in class could revitalise its chances, it was midfield and started to stay on nearing the final furlong or so but when it couldn't win the race it wasn't pushed and finished 5th or 6th and under a length away from making the frame so it turned out again quickly to run here I will be backing it again and at the price, I will back it each way. 

Kyllukey 10/1 4th

CHELMSFORD 7.30 

VERNE CASTLE has a time from 2018 that would give it a chance to win this race but has been well below that level so far this year but could feasibly make the frame if in the mood and the jockey has a 20% win rate for this stable and at 12/1 it is an each-way price. 

JUST THAT LORD this one is my top-rated on 2019 c/d times and is one of four in this race that like to set the pace so stall 9 isn't ideal but if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch I was hoping for a little bigger than 9/2 but it has a decent chance.

ACCLAIM THE NATION this frontrunning sort has a decent record on AW tracks with 2 win and 3 places from just 7 runs, hasn't run over this c/d recently and would need to improve a couple of lbs on its best 2018 time and at 100/30 I would lay the win part.

SAVALAS is well drawn in stall 2 for a possible pacesetter but hasn't run on this surface before so could be dangerous if taking to the surface but I couldn't back it till it's proven itself and 11/2 looks a big mean in my opinion.

HELVETIAN hasn't any c/d form to its name and the trainer's poor 1-26 record at this track doesn't bode well and the jockeys 0-4 record doesn't help change my mind but looks a bit big at 17/2 to lay it. 

MACHREE 14/1 hasn't any c/d form from this year to its name and the trainers 1-13 and jockeys 1-12 records don't inspire confidence but has a time from 2018 that would give it a chance in this race but not till its shown some glimmer of returning to form.

ENTHAAR hasn't any c/d form to work with but has a good time on this surface from Kempton which would make it very competitive and the trainers 18% win ratio and the jockeys 19% win rate with the older horses bodes well for its chances.

GRISONS has only a slow time to show for its sole run over this c/d and that seems most likely to be because a longer distance would help its cause and I would look to lay it especially at its current 100/30 price.

DYNAMO WALT 22/1 this 8-year-old is more than capable of winning a race but hasn't been in good form recently and hasn't won for over a year now in its 11 races and even its best from this year would see it out of the frame so not for me in this race. 

SUMMARY: I think I can narrow it down to the 3 that have the best chances of winning this race, JUST THAT LORD 9/2 has the top figure from c/d 2019 times, stall 9 isn't ideal but if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch, VERNE CASTLE 12/1 would be dangerous if capable of reproducing it best time from 2018 and has a good jockey booking, ENTHAAR 13/2 has both good trainer and jockey stats to make me think connections are expecting a big run here and it could go well if capable of performing to its best Kempton figure on this course, I cannot see any option but to dutch all 3 of them to show a profit whichever one wins.

Enthaar 7/1 5th
Verne Castle 12/1 7th 
Just That Lord 8/1 8th


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