An 11 runner class 6 sprint where the early pace could be set by Harrogate or Pollinate if nothing else wants to lead but the more natural front running type seems to be *Super Julius 3/1 who did record one good course and distance rating in 2021 but that is now looking like a bit of a fluke result even if it is a true rating its still only good enough for joint 3rd top spot its had 25 AW races and only won once and that was its 1st AW race in 2017 so at the odds it has to be a lay. I could look to lay Chanson D’Amour who hasn't shown anything worthwhile on an artificial surface and may prefer the Polytrack surface. Coast is another possible lay as I think its a better horse when racing over a longer distance. Louis Treize is my 2nd top rated but that's using a Polytrack rating and The Gloaming is another that's capable of going well if in the mood but I will be backing SUANNI 4/1 who is my top rated on just this years course and distance ratings, it usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger at the finish. The trainer has an overall win ratio of 17% at this course which rises to 25% with the stables 3yo’s, the jockey has a 40% win ratio on all its rides for the stable which moves up to 45% on the stables 3yo’s so the switch to this jockey is hopefully a pointer to connections expecting to win this race.
*NR
SUANNI 2 Points Win 1st +8pts
Lay bet Chanson D'Amour +1pt
Total +9pts
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 Div II
This 2nd division is certainly the poorer of the 2 races where I can only find Fair And Square 3/1 who has led before and if given an easy lead it could go well and might even do enough to make the frame but its had 26 races to date making the frame in four of them but never winning and at the price it has to be a small, because its a 3yo, lay. Hopefully Captain Corcoran will be a single figure price so it will be of value to lay other possible lays will surely be too big in price to be worth laying but the betting will give me a better look at to find anything else to lay. Koropick has a good rating from Lingfield on the Polytrack surface and its best Tapeta rating might be enough to see it make the frame so maybe worth an each way or place only bet. Duke Of Firenze has a decent rating form 2021 but its another that's not been in good form lately and I will leave this one alone. Lesha has only ran once over this course and distance and dint register on my figures but its best Polytrack rating would make it my 3rd top rated. Ellie Piper who usually likes to track the leaders is another that could potentially go well in this race. Nacho a hold up type would be competitive if reproducing its best 2021 rating over this course and distance but has been a few spots below that standard this year. I will be backing BASHOLO 6/1 who won over this distance on turf and ran well when finishing 2nd last time out at Newcastle so if able to reproduce that rating here it would find itself back in the winners circle.
BASHOLO 1 Point Win 6/1 6th -1pt
Lay bet Fair And Square +1pt
Total 0pts
Total on the day +9pts
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