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Thursday 16 March 2023

7:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (17th March)

NEWCASTLE 7.15 

This is one of those stakes races where each horse carries the same weight and cannot be rated any higher than 50 by the official handicapper, *Mutanaaseq is rated 50 but hasn't won on the AW in 7 attempts also hasn't been in good form lately so I will be one to lay if a single figure price, Mutabaahy hasn't won since 2021 and is added to the list and Jkr Cobbler 7/2 may need further to shine and is also added to the list of lays. The fact there is no known front running types in this race makes it hard to analyse so any stakes will be kept low, Kraken Florida is my 2nd top rated and is usually held up which might not be good tactics for it in this race, I will be having a small wager on ELISHEVA 2/1 who usually tracks the leaders and has good jockey stats. 

*NR 

Elisheva 11/4 5th -1pt 

Lay bets: JKR Cobbler +1pt, Mutabaahy +1pt

Total +1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 

Eleven runners in this class 6 dash with a couple of known front runners but Red Walls would need to improve time wise and might even prefer the Polytrack surface. One Hart and Sir Benedict both race as though further would suit them better so maybe worth laying in this race, Araifjan is my 4th top rated top rated and usually likes to track the leaders while my 3rd top rated, Spanish Angel usually stays on over this distance so could make the frame, LYNN'S BOY 15/2 is my top rated and this one is the one i expect will set the pace and could lead all the way for the win. 

Lynn's Boy 15/2 1st +7.5pts

Lay bets: One Hart +1pt

Total +8.5pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

A class 3 race with 9 runners and 2 front running types, Bergerac is a hold up type and needs to improve time wise to win this race but I'm not sure if could lay it or not but cannot see anything else of value to lay. Its fairly tight at the top of my ratings, Pockley is 5th top rated while Badri and Venturous are my joint 3rd top rated there is only 1lb between them so any of them could make the frame, The Bell Conductor is my 2nd top rated and the one most likely so set the pace to the race and could ensure not many get involved in the finish, my top rated is WATER OF LEITH 18/1 (EW) who can be held up or track the leaders and its best course and distance rating for 2022 would be good enough to win this race but has an even higher rating from Wolverhampton, it won last time out and has won before when coming back to racing after a break and as always at the price has to be an each way wager.

Water Of Leith 20/1 9th -2pts

Total -2pts

Total on the day +7.5pts

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