I know its Grand National day but this is the only sprint handicap for older horses, 4yo+, and then a dismal turnout of just 7 runners for this class 5 sprint.
The trainer Henry Candy has the top weight Penguin Island in his stable and just because its from this stable I expect the price to be lower than it actually merits, its still a maiden after 8 races, its best form came in poor races at Kempton so will need to improve for the switch to this surface to win this race but also against it is that I think it will need this run for fitness and might be getting fit for a return to turf. In this race I can find a negative against 6 of the 7 runners, Madame Fenella won a Kempton race in a slow run affair so will need to improve for the switch to this Tapeta surface, Come On Girl has only slow times recently and even then its best form seems to be on the Polytrack surface, Rhubarb hasn't won in 12 runs on an artificial surface and once again I'm not sure this is its favoured surface and I expect it will be an outsider, Port Noir has poorish times from Kempton to its name and may need further to show its best form.
The trainer Tony Carroll has 2 entered in this race KENSINGTON AGENT 9/4 and AUTUMN ANGEL 6/1, I have highlighted both because the stable could win this race with either of them but the latter has never won a race above class 6 level so if it was a competitive race I wouldn't put this one up as a selection but it is my top rated but the jockey bookings suggest that the former is their first choice in this race so I will back both of them backing the former as my main bet and a small covering bet on the latter so I make a profit whichever one wins. There is still a big but in this race and that is that there is no known front running type in this race so I'm thinking that the trainer of my 2 selections will use one as a pacemaker for the other and then he wouldn't be bothered which one won, if I knew he was going to use one as a pacemaker I would be backing the reverse forecast but I will stick with my win bets on the two Tony Carroll horses.
Kensington Agent 9/4 1st + 2.25pts
Autumn Angel 6/1 4th -1pt
Total on the day +1.25pts
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