A hard race to analyse as there isn't any known natural front running sorts amongst the 11 runners, yes something will lead but will it be a true gallop which messes up all my work if they canter before sprinting for home in the straight. Maybe looking for something to lay is the answer, Glamorous Express 4/1 who has only slow times on turf and would need to improve for its 1st attempt on an artificial surface to win this race, with a decent early pace then Speed Dial Baileys 9/2 and Cabeza De Liave 8/1 may struggle to stay the distance and Phoenix Glow would need to improve on its best Chelmsford time to win here. Beauzon 14/1, who could make the frame, and Newyorkstateofmind 10/1 another possible each way punt, as they are joint 2nd top rated horses on course and distance times but if WATER OF LEITH 15/2 can reproduce its best rating from 2022 then it would win this race with a bit too spare but with the uncertainty with the early pace question then any stakes will be kept to a minimum.
Water Of Leigh 15/2 6th -1pt
Total -1pt
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30
Another 11 runner race but this time there is a couple of likely pace setters in Boom The Groom 11/2, but this one seems much better on the Polytrack surface so I would be surprised if it could win this race and I will look to lay it, and Resilience 15/2 who is my 2nd top rated using a rating from Southwell but is 4lbs lower on its best rating over this course and distance but could do enough to from the front to at least make the frame. The 3yo Granny B 11/2 may need further to shine so it might be worth laying the win part on this horse, Josies Kid 7/2 and Street Life 20/1 are my joint 3rd top rated so could go well here and might make the frame but there might only be the 3rd place finish up for grabs if the front runner does its job and leaves just DALBY FOREST 9/1 who is rated top and the trainer has a 16% win ratio at this course and the jockey has a 19% win ratio for the stable and this one does seem to like a fast target to aim at so this race could be ideal.
Dalby Forest 9/1 8th
Total -1pt
Total on the day -2pts
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