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Friday 10 November 2023

3:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (11th November)


The early pace to this race could well be set by Magical Spirit and this one could be a slightly hidden danger if allowed an easy time at the front of the field as its best time on turf would make it my 3rd top horse in this race so might be worth an each way punt. Gweedore 6/1, Brewing 4/1 and Zip 6/1 all race as though further would suit them better so may get outpaced in the early stages and not make up the deficit in time to win this race and ones I will be looking to lay here and I could add Bielsa 7/1 to my lay list as time wise using both All-Weather and Turf ratings it needs to improve to be able to win this race. Roman Dragon is my 4th top rated so could go well and possibly make the frame if others falter, sometimes Monsieur Kodi can struggle to stay this distance but in the make-up of this race it might run ok but I somehow doubt it will be an each way price but i will be relying on GULLIVER 16/1 (EW) who has won 5 times on an artificial surface but admittedly hasn't run on this course before but a repeat of its best rating from Southwell the last time it ran on an All-Weather surface it would be winning this race a shade cosily and it worked last time it won after running on turf and then the switch back to the All-Weather surface brought it instantly back to form I'm hoping for a repeat here but at such a big price it has to be an each way punt.

Gulliver 16/1 7th -2pts 

Lay bet: Bielsa +1pt 

Total -1pt 


This race looks likely to be won from the front as all 4 known front running types are in my top 5 ratings so as long as they don't push each other too hard and then tire badly nearing the finish a lot of horses wont get competitive in this race, if Shalaa Asker 7/1 is a single figure price I will look to lay it as with a fast early pace it can struggle to stay the distance, Holkham Bay stall 7 is my 5th top rated, Buccacay stall 1 is my 4th top rated so could gain control on the rails which will help its cause so may be worth an each way interest if of value to back each way, Hello Me is the one that could prosper if they go off too fast as its my 3rd top rated but its best rating of this year would plummet it down my list, The Waiting Game stall 10 is my 2nd top rated and has won its last 5 races starting off on an official rating of 48 and won last time out rated 75 and is up another 3lbs here it doesn't have to lead which could be helpful seeing it s pretty bad draw but I wouldn't pt anyone off of backing it as it could still be improving but I will stick with the proven and put my faith in CUBAN BREEZE 12/1 (EW) stall 8 who can front run or be held up and it finished fast behind The Waiting Game when beaten a short head and is 2lbs better off on that run which is plenty to reverse that form and finished 3rd last time out in a very fast run race so it has a good chance to get back to winning ways here but at a double figure price it has to be given as an each way bet.

Cuban Breeze 12/1 1st +15pts
Lay bet: Shalaa Asker +1pt 

Total +16pts

Total on the day +15pts

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