3:38 Newcastle Racing Tips (18th October)

NEWCASTLE 3.38 

I can see 5 horses in this race that have led before but I think they will be setting it up for something coming from off the pace, it isn't a great race for a class 3 affair but it should be a true run race, Jordan Electrics, Water Of Leith and Spartan Fighter are all possible pacesetters but all 3 of them do their winning in lower class races so maybe not quite up to winning here but one or more could still make the frame if reproducing their previous best, Lovely Mana, maybe too far for it, Running Wild, relatively slow times, and Fast And Loose, maybe not up to winning at this level could be possible lays if of value to do so, (value? Is an arguable stat because I know my sprinters inside out I can have a fairly accurate idea of what price the horse should be depending on its chances of winning so that is why I usually post my lays the morning of the races when the betting has settled down). Quest For Fun could do best of those racing to the fore in the early stages but my money will be riding on AASSER 9/1 who has won before after a break from racing so the 3 months its had off could see it come back and raring to go and the jockey does quite well when riding for the stable. 

Aasser 9/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Running Wild +1pt

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 4.13 

A poor looking class 6 sprint with just one known front running type amongst the 14 runners, I've marked down 3 possible lays that I'm hoping will be of value to lay, Willing To Please and Variety Island, who both might need further, and Cheese The One who has run in slow run affairs lately and might be flattered by finishing in the frame, the 3yo’s Randem Rocks and My Boy Jack could go well and might be worth each way wagers if of value to do so, this isn't a race to be betting very heavily in but I'm hoping a small each way wager on ASTAPOR 20/1(EW) might pay dividends as its the one i think might set the pace and then could be hard to catch. 

Astapor 40/1 9th -2pts 

Lay bets Variety Island +1pt, Cheese The One +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 4.45 

The first division of a class 6 dash and surprisingly there is only a couple of known front running types in the race, I'm not sure if there will be anything of value to lay in this race but as usual the betting will be the deciding factor, High Security and or Mrs Bagerman could set the pace to the race and the latter could do best of the pair so might be worth an each way interest, Nellie French has pieces of form from the past that would give it a chance of making the frame but has been in poor form lately, Sugar Baby has been running in better company than today's but time wise it would need to improve to win this race so I'm not sure what to expect from it, Blackcurrant is another that could go well but seems to find it hard to win as many races as it should, I will be hoping that an each way bet on YAAHOBBY 12/1 (EW) will pay dividends and this one is usually held up for a late run and it is the type of horse that can bounce back to form without prior winning so lets hope its today. 

Yaahobby 18/1 3rd +2.6pts

Total +2.6pts

KEMPTON 5.30 

A field of 8 for this class 5 race with just one natural front running type amongst them, I'm always wary when laying 3yo’s because they are still capable of some improvement but I think both Lur Cinn Tra and Cabeza De Llave would be better prospects over a longer distance so I will have a small lay bet on them if of value to do so, Charming Kid can produce decent speed figures when things go right for it but hasn't been in good form lately, the top weighted Astral Beat is a 3yo who comes out 3rd best on my figures so might be worth an each way bet if a value price, I will be siding with HOWZAK 11/4 who won last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here where i can see it leading all the way so the stall 2 draw is nearly perfect. 

Howzak 11/4 1st +2.75pts 

Lay bet Cabeza De Llave +1pt 

Total +3.75pts

KEMPTON 8.30 

Of the 12 runners I can see 3 that like to lead so a true run race looks likely, Porfin is my 4th top rated here but can find the distance too far with a fast pace so maybe one to lay in this race, Vape is my 3rd top rated and usually stays on at the finish but maybe too late for the win as long as others run to their best, Tell’em Nowt comes out 2nd best and usually races in midfield before staying on nearing the finish, my money will be riding on GOLD MEDAL 7/2 who is one of the front runners in the race isn't drawn well in stall 11 but with only 2 other likely pacesetters it could get out and follow the stall 8 horse across to the rails and then at least contest the lead and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch and the jockey has a decent record when riding for the stable.

Gold Medal 7/1 3rd 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +5.35pts

Lay bets must be 9/1 and less sp (horses underlined)

Tuesday's Racing Tips (20th September)

LINGFIELD 2.45 

A field of 12 with 3 front runners amongst them, the betting will decide whether there's any lays or not in this race but I am hoping that Michael's Choice will be of value to lay because this front running type wont get its own way in front and time wise it needs to improve to win this race so I doubt it can hold on even if it does lead, the 3yo Kodias Sangarius is my 4th top rated but did record its best rating this year over today's course and distance, Peggoty another 3yo could make the frame being my 3rd top rated, SWISS PRIDE 8/1 is my 2nd top rated and the one that could go well here and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and in the make-up of this race stall 12 might not be too bad and will be carrying some of my money but i do have YIMOU 7/1 rated higher who hasn't won from 8 previous runs on an artificial surface but in the last 2 weeks the stable has had 3 winners from just 5 runners and I will be backing both of them. 

Yimou 7/1 2nd -1pt 

Swiss Pride 8/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bet Micheal's Choice +1pt 

Total -1pt 

BEVERLEY 3.27 

Just 7 runners for this class 2 conditions race with 3 of them being known to lead before, apart from Sophie's Star who hasn't shown much the other 6 all have pieces of form that would give them a chance in this race, Bedford Flyer is my 3rd top rated and could do best of those coming from off the pace as my top rated pair both like race to the fore, King Of Stars sits in 2nd top spot and could gain control of the rails from stall 3 but JUDICIAL 4/1 is my top rated and a repeat of the rating it recorded at Ascot would see it winning this race and the jockey has a decent 19% win ratio for the stable. 

Judicial 5/1 1st +5pts

Total +5pts

LINGFIELD 3.55 

A class 6 race with 10 runners and just one known front running type, Saxon Village 10/3 is making its handicap debut but races as though a longer distance would be better for it and it might be worth taking the risk and laying it, Shawwaaq another 3yo is my 4th top rated and usually races in midfield during its races, Stake Acclaim comes out in 3rd top spot but hasn't been in good form lately especially its 3 runs this year, Hey Ho Lets Go comes out 2nd best on my figures and is a course and distance winner which is a positive but then so is my top rated HOWZAK 11/1 who is also the one that I think will set the pace to the race and this is a drop in class from some races its competed in lately and time wise it would win cosily if able to reproduce the rating it recorded here in 2021.

Howzak 12/1 1st +12pts 

Lay bet Saxon Village +1pt

Total +13pts

Total on the day +17pts

2:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (28th January)

LINGFIELD 2.45 

STORM MELODY 4/1 sits just outside my top 4 speed figures for this race but has been in good form lately which is always a positive.

NOT NOW ZEB 14/1 has an ok rating from Southwell but hasn't run on this surface in this country, it might prefer further or a different surface maybe both.

HOWZAK 7/1 one of 4 known front runners in this race it comes out top on just 2021/22 c/d speed figures and its 2nd top on my overall figures. 

LA ROCA BEL FUEGO 7/1 has been known to lead but stall 10 isn't going to be good in the make-up of this race and needs to improve time wise on its best Chelmsford rating. 

LETHAL BLAST 16/1 in stall 2 has the best of the draw for a front runner but its speed figure doesn't quite put it in my top four ratings.

LOTHIAN 9/1 this is another that's just outside my top 4 ratings and races as though further might be better for it so maybe get to the leaders too late to win this race. 

SHAMSHON 12/1 hasn't been in good form lately but using a 2020 rating it comes out top rated but recent ratings leave it outside my top 4 ratings. 

GLAMOROUS FORCE 11/1 hasn't any form on this surface and would need to improve on its best rating which comes from Wolverhampton..

TOPLIGHT 9/2 is my 4th top rated using a Chelmsford speed figure and is usually held up for a late run but maybe it wont get to the leaders in time for the win.

WINGS OF A DOVE 6/1 the 4th possible pacesetter but stall 8 isn't the best with 2 other fast starters on its inside and hasn't won from 6 previous AW runs so one to lay at the price. 

SUMMARY: I will look to lay Wings Of A Dove 6/1 who’s best rating might have been a one off where getting towed along in a fast run race, it is fairly tight on my figures between quite a few of the runners but i will be hoping that HOWZAK 7/1 can lead or at least contest the lead from the off and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch. 

Howzak 10/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet Wings Of A Dove +1pt

Total 0pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.45 

SIR HECTOR 10/3 has a figure from 2019 that puts it in 3rd top spot and hasn't any c/d form since then so it could make the frame but not an each way price.

Q TWENTY BOY 5/1 would need to improve time wise to win this and that is mainly down to it looking like it needs further to show its best. 

SHANGHAI ROCK 8/1 has poor recent form to its name and needs to improve on both its Chelmsford and Southwell ratings to win this race and could be worth laying. 

SAN JUAN 7/1 hasnt run on this surface before and would need to improve on its Chelmsford best rating for the switch but I couldn't back or lay this one. 

AMAZING AMAYA 6/1 has ratings from both Southwell and here over this distance which it would need to improve on to be winning this race so maybe another one to lay. 

YOU'RE COOL 6/1 has the stall 1 draw which is ideal for this front running type and its my top rated on recent c/d figures and 2nd top on my overall figures. 

QAARAAT 7/2 is an enigma who can run well or badly and your never sure what to expect but its usually the negative and i had o go back to 2020 to find its best rating and is poor value. 

LA CHICA LOBO 66/1 has only poor recent form and it will be a shock if this one wins and I expect it will be an outsider. 

SUMMARY: I have to hope Qaaraat 7/2 isn't on one of its very good days where it runs to its best but its too erratic and inconsistent to be backing in this race especially at the price as he's let me down a few times recently or maybe age is catching up with 7 year old who has had over a hundred races, 72 on the AW tracks with 5 wins, I will look to lay all or some of Q Twenty Boy 5/1, Shanghai Rock 8/1 and Amazing Amaya 6/1 if they are single figure prices at the off, I will be hoping that YOU'RE COOL 6/1 can get away smartly and make full use of its stall 1 draw and lead all the way to victory.

You're Cool 6/1 1st +6pts 

Lay bet Q Twenty Boy +1pt, Shanghai Rock +1pt

Total +8pts 

Total on the day +8pts

12:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (4th January)

LINGFIELD 12.30 

Five sprints today so just a quick summary for each race, I will look to lay Capla Spirit 5/1 who might find this distance too far for it in what should be a fast run affair, Hurcle comes out 3rd top on my figures so could make the frame but it would need to bounce back to form after poor recent form but I think a future target will be in their mind, Inaam 14/1 comes out 2nd top rated using a 2020 rating and will be trying to stay on strongly nearing the finish and could make the frame while the front running top rated HOWZAK 9/2 recorded its best figure in 2021 and was running very well on this surface and is 1lb lower than when it finished 2nd on this surface 3 runs ago and is drawn nearest the rail of the known front running types in this race, its last 2 runs on the Tapeta surface can maybe ignored and the switch back to the Polytrack surface could be just what's needed to return to winning ways.

Howzak 9/2 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

LINGFIELD 2.00 

Firstly I will look to lay Porfin 5/4 who won last time out over 6 furlongs so maybe a shorter price than it merits and I don't think this drop down in trip will suit it and stall 8 might not help its cause either and at the price looks poor value, there is several horses in this race that are capable of making the frame, Big Time Maybe, Sword Exceed, Moveonup and Hurricane Alert who all have bits of form and ratings that could see them run ok and any of them could feasibly make the frame but my money will be riding on THEGREYVTRAIN 6/1 who is a front running sort who has won twice on this surface and one of those wins was over this c/d and did show a sign of revival in form when finishing 4th last time out and its best speed figure from 2021 would see it winning with a bit in hand.

Thegreyvtrain 8/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Porfin - .83pts

Total -1.83pts

NEWCASTLE 5.30 Div II

As usual I will start with the lay bets, the top weighted Bakr 3/1 looks a better horse when racing over further and its only win came over 7 furlongs, Nellie French 8/1 looks a better prospect over a shorter distance and this race wont be run to suit it and I will lay them both if single figure prices, the front running Seeking Perfection 12/1 hasn't shown much lately but does reserve its best for when running over this c/d and could go well here being my 2nd top rated on c/d times and 3rd top overall, Clashaniska 12/1 could do best of those coming from off the pace and if its best figure from Lingfield can be replicated here it could go well but its best c/d figure is a good few spots below that level but either of the pair could make the frame, my money once again today will be riding on a front running type again in the shape of LANCASHIRE LIFE 7/1 who has the coveted stall 1 draw and I am hoping it can lead all the way.

Lancashire Life 14/1 8th -2pts

Lay bet Bakr +1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.00 Div II  

This division is bloody difficult to analyse, firstly there isn't any known front running types in the race so Penombre who I was going to lay because I think its a better horse over shorter distance is now left alone, time wise the race evolves around 3 runners, Good Night Mr Tom 7/1 is 3rd top rated but has been way below form lately, Sleight 15/2 comes out in 2nd top position overall an top rated on just 2021 figures but this horse is still a maiden after 15 attempts, Fircombe Hall 10/3 comes out top rated using a time recorded in 2020 but the jockey is 0-4 for the stable and its been 25 days since the stable last had a winner. I could dutch all 3 of them but the latter is forecast to be a fairly short, 9/4, favourite, and I hate backing favourites especially in low class races.

NEWCASTLE 6.30

I am back to giving my lays first here, Whittle Le Woods 7/2 isn't in my top 4 ratings and if past data is to be believed it should need at least this run to gain fitness after being off for 140 days, Late Arrival 7/2 who is one of four runners that have been known to lead won last time out over this c/d but that was a slow run race so it might have been flattered by that result and may therefore be poor value in this race, Tathmeen who is versatile when it comes to racing tactics hasn't been in form lately but its best figures from 2020 makes it my 3rd top rated, Stay Smart comes out 2nd top and is a front running type and could do best of those racing to the fore but the fast early pace gives BURROWS SEESIDE 10/3 the right sort of target to aim at as it will be staying on strongly while the front runners could be fading nearing the finish but the trainer is 0-14 in the last 2 weeks which will temper my stakes.

Burrow's Seeside 13/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Whittle Le Woods +1pt, Late Arrival +1pt 

Total +1pt 

Total on the day -2.83pts

Lay bets must be single-figure odds at sp 

4:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (27th November)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00 

OOH IS IT 5/1 has only a slow time from its only previous c/d run and a slow time at Newcastle as well so maybe this Tapeta surface isn’t ideal for it and may be worth laying.

HOWZAK 3/1 has been in good form lately with 3 wins and two placed efforts from its last 5 runs but it hasn't any form on this surface so not sure what to expect but would win if able to reproduce its best speed figure on the Polytrack surface and is 1 of 3 possible pacesetters drawn in stall seven. 

STAKE ACCLAIM 7/1 has a rating from 2020 that would make it just outside my top four ratings but does have the stall 1 draw but isn't known as a front running type so its stall 1 draw might be a bit of a disadvantage. 

EXPERT OPINION 15/2 a 3yo who has also been known to lead before and in the make-up of this race stall eight not not be too bad and is my top rated on just 2021 course and distance speed figures. 

TATHMEEN 16/1 hasn't shown much time wise over this course and distance since 2019 and from stall 11 it will need a degree of luck to gain a clear run without being taken too wide.

SHOW ME A SUNSET 8/1 is usually held up for a late run but would need to improve on its best speed figure which was recorded in 2020 but that is good enough for joint 3rd top spot but hasn't been to that level so far this year. 

THE DALEY EXPRESS 8/1 this one seems to be slowly getting slower each year, its best form 2020 would make it my joint 3rd top rated but its best from 2019 would make it my 2nd top rated but hasn't a recorded figure for this year so not for me in this race. 

SHAMSHON 14/1 is the 3rd of the horses that has been known to lead before and its time recorded this year is good enough for 2nd top spot on just this years times but stall 10 may see it carried wide on the bend with the other 2 possible pacesetters drawn on its inside.

SOME NIGHTMARE 11/2 this one hasn't any form over this course and distance and looking at other form it may need a longer distance for this one to show its best form and i would think about laying this one at the price. 

HIGHEST AMBITION 33/1 has had 2 previous runs over this course and distance but both produced slow times and might be another that will shine when raced over further. 

BEZZA'S LAD 11/1 hasn't won in 8 previous runs on an artificial surface And is the third on on the trot that might better when racing over further. 

SUMMARY: I will look to lay Ooh Is It 5/1 who has won its last 2 races but with doubts over the suitability of this Tapeta surface i am willing to take it on if of value to do so, I think the winner will come from either, HOWZAK 3/1 but it depend on whether it takes to this surface or not but its speed figure rating is a good few spots higher than anything else in the race or *EXPERT OPINION 15/2 who i will also be backing as it is my top rated on just this years course and distance speed figures with both of them being front running types they may prove more than hard to catch for the rest of the field and i am not sure which horse would be the one to prosper if they front runners go off too fast and tire inside the final furlong.

*NR 

Howzak 3/1 7th -1pt 

Lay Ooh Is It (too big price) 

Total on the day -1pt  

5:25 Chelmsford Racing Tips (4th November)

CHELMSFORD 5.25 

I have found a couple of front running types which is always a bonus and even better when they are your two top rated horses, I'm not sure there will be anything of value to lay but the betting will decide, Smokey and Storm Melody my 4th and 3rd top rated horses could be the ones to prosper if the leaders go off too fast and fade but could be an each way wager anyways especially the latter as its time was recorded this year, I will be splitting my stake between DARK SIDE PRINCE 9/2 and *LA ROCA DEL FUEGO 5/1 they both have good trainer/jockey stats and i think the rest will find it hard to catch them if they get the pace right. 

*NR

Dark Side Prince 8/1 1st +pts

Total +8pts

CHELMSFORD 5.55 Div I

Again I can find two front running types in this race and again it think it could be won from the front, I will look to lay Irish Times if its a single figure price as I think a longer trip will suit this one better, Bernard Speirpoint could do best of those coming from off the pace and could be worth an each way punt, the top weight HOWZAK 5/4 comes out 3rd best on just 2021 c/d times but it ran and won on Monday at Lingfield and that speed figure would make it my top rated depending on what size penalty it has to carry, it has come out joint top rated, but I have ROCKESBURY 7/1 who has a time from 2020 that makes it my top rated on overall figures, ignoring the top weight until I see that ones penalty, and another that likes to lead and I'm hoping that at least one of them can hold on for the win. 

Howzak 5/4 1st  +1.25pts  

Rockebury 40/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Irish Times +1pt 

Total +1.25pts

CHELMSFORD 6.25 Div II

The top weight Little Sunflower may set the pace to the race but would need to improve time wise unless its allowed an easy lead and sets a slow pace and keeps plenty in reserve to repel any late challengers, Iesha sits in 4th top spot on my figures just one pound below Giovanna Tiepolo who is my 3rd top rated, my 2nd top rated horse It Must Be Faith recorded its best time last year over this distance at Lingfield but I will be hoping that MAID MILLIE 10/3 can reproduce its best course and distance time from last year and if able to do so would be winning this race a shade cosily. 

Maid Millie 10/3 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt

Total on the day +8.25pts