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Showing posts with label Smokey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Smokey. Show all posts

Wednesday, 31 March 2021

6:50 Chelmsford Racing Tips (1st April)

CHELMSFORD 6.50 

ABEL HANDY 6/1 is a possible pacesetter who comes out 2nd best on just c/d times and 3rd top overall so could go well and make the frame but isn't what i would call an each way price.

STRONG POWER 10/1 hasn't any course form to its name and it races as though further will suit it better and i expect it will be an outsider.

AUTUMN FLIGHT 7/1 hasn't run on any AW track before this race and most of its form on turf comes with some cut in the ground so this fast surface may not suit it and maybe one to lay.

SMOKEY 3/1 is in tip top form winning 3 of its 4 runs this year and has a good chance to add to that tally here, being it is my top rated.

CAPLA SPIRIT 10/1 another possible pacesetter and comes out 3rd top on just c/d times but this isn't its favoured course but could make the frame in this relatively weak race for the class.

ASCOT JUNGLE 33/1 hasn't shown much recently and i think it will be the biggest outsider in the race.

AGENT SHIFTWELL 11/4 the 3rd and final one that could lead here, its c/d time is a relatively slow while its best time from Wolverhampton makes it 2nd top overall and could go well here.

MISS THOUGHTFUL hasn't any form over this distance and its stays on over 6 furlongs so may get outpaced here and one i will look to lay. (NON-RUNNER) 

SUMMARY: I will look to lay both (Miss Thoughtful + Autumn Flight 7/1) if they are single figure prices, Abel Handy and/or Agent Shiftwell may do best of those running to the front in the race but they may be setting it up for SMOKEY 3/1 who is in tremendous form and has been found another good opportunity to add to its tally of 3 first places this season and it can be held up for a late run or stay on strongly after tracking the leaders and this race looks likely to be run in a way that will suit its racing tactics.

Smokey 3/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets: Autumn Flight -7pts, Miss Thoughtful +1pt

Total on the day -7pts

Wednesday, 10 March 2021

3:35 Southwell Racing Tips (11th March)


SOUTHWELL 3.35 

Now a field of 6 runners with just one known front runner amongst them but that horse Moonraker hasn't produced a recorded time since 2019 and hasn't shown much worthwhile form of late so I think it will set the race up for something coming from off the pace, Samovar is 3rd top rated on my figures and it likes to track the leaders before staying on at the finish, Qaaraat is well weighted and comes out 2nd best on my figures but I do have SMOKEY 9/4 rated higher but that figure comes from Chelmsford in 2020, it has ran over this c/d once before, in fact it was its last race, and won but it was a slow run affair but that might be because this surface has been running slow lately so the final times might be irrelevant and if so it must have more than a decent chance of following up in this race. 

Smokey 9/4 1st (2pt win) + 4.50pts (Betfair SP 4.64)

Total +4.50pts

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

Another race with only 7 runners and again just one known front runner, I think Thrilla In Manila may need a longer trip to show its best, James Watt hasn't run on any AW track before but has won at this distance on both good to firm and good to soft ground on turf so this surface shouldn't be a problem unless it doesn't like the kickback off this surface, Good Luck Fox could have a decent chance looking at some of its turf form but its sole run here resulted in a slow time,Dazzling Des will be trying to stay on towards the finish of this race but I expect it will be too late to win the race, Primos Comet is another that likes to finish well and is my joint top rated but I will side with ANOTHER ANGEL 7/2 who is my other joint top rated and is the known front runner I mentioned earlier so I'm hoping it can get away fast and lead all the way. 

Another Angel 7/2 (2 pts win) -2pts

Total on the day +2.5pts

3.35 Smokey 9/4 2 Points win 
6.30 Another Angel 7/2 2 Points win PS don't forget you should take the early prices but it ought be with a bookie who offers, BOG, Best Odds Guaranteed.