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Sunday, 15 May 2022

1:55 Carlisle Racing Tips (16th May)

PS: Yes I know a postscript should be at the end of a piece of work my English isn't quite that bad, looking at the weather forecast everywhere is forecast to have rain either today and or tomorrow so please check the going before placing a bet on anything I've mentioned because if the going is on the soft side then my ratings are defunct and I have wasted several hours analysing and writing up today's sprints. 

CARLISLE 1.55 

A nine runner class 5 race so nothing to get too excited about but with 3 known front running types it should be a true run affair and of those 3 Runninwild may do best of them although I'm not completely sure what to expect from Stalingrad who might need further to show its best, East Street Revue and Good Earth are my joint 4th top rated with Melody King sitting in 3rd top spot, there is a 5lb gap between my top 2, Fashion Advice is my top rated but this one might need this run after not having had a run in the last year but would be dangerous if fully fit but i would rather back its stablemate, VENTURA FLAME 7/1 who is usually held up for a late run, as either could win this race I will have a covering bet on Fashion Advice just in case the stable are only trying with this one. 

Ventura Flame 10/1 1st +10pts 

Total +10pts 

REDCAR 3.55 

Just a poor turnout of 5 runners for this class 3 dash but luckily there is one known front runner amongst them, looking at the early tissue prices Sir Titus 3/1 is forecast to be the favourite but this one seems to do its winning in lower class races and I would think about laying it even if it is the favourite, Rebel At Dawn is my 3rd top rated and only 2lbs behind Soul Seeker in 2nd top spot but my top rated is *MODULAR MAGIC 11/4 and its the one known front running type in the race so hopefully it can lead all the way for victory. 

*NR 

No bet soft ground 

WINDSOR 6.10 

I hope that all 8 runners take part so I can have an each way bet, if I can find one, its so bad I cannot find with confidence anything to lay, Tabdeed comes out 3rd top on my figures who can be held up for a late run or tracks the leaders and then try to stay on at the finish, if I went back to 2020 then Atalantis Boy would be in 2nd top spot but hasn't been within 10 spots of that rating since then, my top rated is FIRST FOLIO 13/2 who recorded a rating at Yarmouth last year that would see it winning this race a shade cosily. 

First Folio 13/2 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

WINDSOR 6.40 

A class 3 race with 12 runners and 4 that have been known to lead before, I might well look to lay The Princes Poet, Global Prospector 7/1 and Nelson Gay (non-runner) who might find this trip too far for them especially with a fast early pace then add Inver Park 6/1 who need to improve a good few spots time wise to win this race, Chipstead 12/1 is my 3rd top rated using a Goodwood rating this year, Media Guest 18/1 is my 2nd top rated using a 2021 Yarmouth usually held up for a late run but if SHOBIZ 11/2 can reproduce its best time from Yarmouth again here at Goodwood it can lead and hold on for the win. 

Showbiz 11/2 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt  

LEICESTER 7.50 

Eleven runners in a class 4 race but again a big problem with no known front running types amongst them, with a fast early pace I could have eliminated Dream Composer 5/1, Prince Of Abington 11/2 and Dark Shot 40/1 who all might struggle to stay the distance although the middle one of those 3 is my 2nd top rated, using a speed figure it recorded at Carlisle last year LORD P 7/1 but the possible downfall could be that its usually races in midfield or held up for a late run so without a decent gallop things will be much harder for it to win.

Lord P 11/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +7pts 

Friday, 13 May 2022

2:55 Thirsk Racing Tips (14th May)

THIRSK 2.55

A field of 9 in this class 4 race with First Company the one most likely to set the pace unless something else decides to change its usual racing tactics but I doubt it can hold on for the win, if the going is good to firm then Ballintoy Harbour 10/1 could run well and might be worth an each way punt, Leodis Dream 15/2 has a time from Windsor last year that would put it in the mix and it usually likes to track the leaders, Havagomecca 7/1 is my 2nd top rated and is usually held up for a late run but ATLYAH 6/1 likes to sit just behind the leaders ready to pounce and comes out top on my figures, the trainers record of 0-7 at this course isn't great but the jockey is 2-4 when riding for the stable. 

Atlyah 6/1 1st +6pts 

Total +6pts

CHELMSFORD 3.45 

The betting will decide if there's any lays in this race but Sir Rodneyredblood 7/1, Harold Shand and Twilight Madness 5/1 are potential candidates, Toussarak is my 3rd top rated and usually runs on strongly at the finish, Crimson Sands 3/1 and City Walk 11/2 are both dropped in class to run in this race and could go well and on times the former could do best of the pair, my money will be riding on ARAIFJAN 15/2 who won in this class of race last time out but has been raised four pounds by the official handicapper, it is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics and maybe in the make up of this race from stall 8 wont attempt to lead but could sit handily and stay on the stronger at the finish. 

Araifjan 16/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Toussarak +1pt 

Total 0pts

THIRSK 4.05 

A very competitive looking class 3 sprint with fourteen runners, Saluti might prefer a longer distance but would need to improve time wise if others run to their best, RATHBONE 11/2 is the one that I expect will set the pace to this race and is my joint 2nd top rated so could do enough to at least make the frame and if allowed the luxury of an easy lead could hold on for the win I'm not sure how good the 7lb claiming apprentice is but if worth the full 7lbs it comes out in top spot, Tinto is my original top rated but hasn't been in the best of form recently the trainer has poorish single figure win ratio at this course but the jockey has a decent 17% win ratio on the stables older horses, Music Society starts off as joint 2nd top but drops to 3rd top spot but the jockeys poor 1-20 win ratio for the stable is a bit off-putting but it will be staying on at the finish but maybe too late for the win but could make the frame. 

Rathbone 9/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

DONCASTER 8.40 

Let me stay from the start this isn't really a race to be betting in too heavily in but PRINCE OF BEL LIR 4/1 won last time out over this distance at Yarmouth 18 days ago which is a reasonably flat course so this course should also suit it and the rating it recorded in that race puts it well clear of anything else I've got a rating for in this race and could lead all the way here and follow up that Yarmouth win, yes it is raised in class from a 5 to a 4 but this 4yo ought to be able to win at this slightly higher class, I don't expect it will be anything but the favourite for this race I'm just hoping its not too short a price.

Prince Of Bel Lir 4/1 +4pts 

Total +4pts

Total on the day +9pts

Monday, 9 May 2022

2:20 Chepstow Racing Tips (10th May)

CHEPSTOW 2.20 

I will start with those that I will be looking to lay, Mashaan 13/2 may be better over further and hasn't been in good form of late, Kool Moe Dee 13/2 has only slow times over this distance because with a decent early gallop it struggles to stay the distance and the same applies to Port Noir 10/1 any others will I expect to be double figure priced outsiders, if it wasn't for the fact that the trainer hasn't had a winner from 22 runners over 122 days I would be backing AMATHUS 20/1 as my sole bet but because it does have good trainer stats at this course of 18% and good jockey stats 22% win ratio, I will be backing it along with 2 others, SWEET PURSUIT 25/1 this ones trainer is 1-24 in the last 2 weeks but does have a 18% win ratio at this course and the jockey is 2-9 and 1-2 on the stables older horses, MAC'S DILEMMA 3/1 is my top rated using just 2022 speed figures so has to be considered as the possible winner and it also has good trainer 17% and jockey 38% stats, I cannot see any other way forward other than backing all 3 of them so hopefully again looking at the early tissue prices I will go with 2 each way bets and one win bet. 

Mac's Dilemma 3/1 1st +3pts 
Amathus 14/1 5th -2pt 
Sweet Pursuit 40/1 Unp -2pts 

Lay bets Mashaan +1pt, Kool Moe Dee +1pt, 

Total +1pt 

BEVERLEY 3.10 

There isn't a great deal of data to work with for a fair few in this race which is a bit off-putting, I can see a couple of possible pacesetters in Jean's Maite and Refuge but I doubt either could lead all the way for the victory but the pace not be the fastest of gallops which wont help me analyse the race properly, after narrowing down as best I could I came up with Son And Sannie 13/8 but according to the early tissue prices it looks likely to be the favourite and I doubt it will of value to back in my opinion so it might be best to leave this race alone. 

LINGFIELD 6.15 

I can only see Harbour Storm 13/2 leading this race, unless something else changes its usual running tactics, but I doubt it will be able to lead all the way as it seems to be better on the Tapeta surface and would need others to falter to even make the frame so one to lay if a single figure price, using the early tissue prices as a guide I will be hoping to lay Perfect Symphony 8/1 who might find the distance too far for it and San Juan 7/1 may also struggle to stay the distance, Maahle Vee, Independence Day and Bungledupinblue are my joint 3rd and 2nd top rated horses but I will be backing GRIGGY 5/1 who is usually held up for a late run and is drawn in the adjacent stall to the one I think will lead so could get a good tow into the race and after being ridden by apprentice jockeys recently the jockey booked for this race has a 3 wins from 7 races for the stable and 3 from 6 with the stables older horses so it looks that connections are expecting it to get back to winning ways. 

Griggy 5/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets Harbour Storm +1pt

Total 0pts 

Total on the day +1pt

Sunday, 8 May 2022

2:40 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (9th May)

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.40 

A class five race over the five furlong dash distance with 10 runners and four known front runners which is always helpful, I will look to lay Street Life 8/1 who may need this run for fitness and maybe better on the Polytrack surface and You're Cool 5/1 won last time out in a class 6 race and it does it best in lower class races, Qaaraat 10/3 finished 2nd last time out but that was in a class 6 selling race and another that may struggle now up in class, Secretfact, Grandfather Tom and Dark Side Prince have been known to lead before but I am hoping that RED WALLS 9/1 can get to the front and if doing so it could prove hard to catch and might be of value especially if an each way price. 

Red Walls 18/1 9th -2pt 

Lay bets You're Cool -2.75pts, Street Life +1pt 

Total -3.75pts

CATTERICK 3.30 

I can see 3 runners that have been known to lead before so it should be a true run race, I can see 4 runners that will be big prices but I'm not sure I can see anything that I can lay that will represent value, Stronsay has got a decent speed figure and it finished 2nd last time out so could be a danger but the trainer is 1-38 at this course and the jockey is 0-8 for the stable which is a bit off-putting, I will be having a small bet on USTATH 9/2 who is the one I think will set the pace to the race and if leading it could prove hard to catch. 

Ustath 6/1 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

MUSSELBURGH 3.50 

This at first glance is a nice looking class 4 race, there's only 6 runners but worse than that there's no known pacesetters in the race, Alebegone 5/2 might be outclassed at this level as might the bottom weight Rory 13/2 who also hasn't been in good form lately, John Kirkup might prefer some cut in the ground to show its best, The Thin Blue Line 5/2 might prefer further to show its best so this race might not be run to suit it, Rose Bandit is my 2nd top rated so could go well but my money will be riding on PRIMO'S COMET 5/1 who doesn't want the going to be too fast so it should be ideal and the jockey has a decent record for the stable.

Primo's Comet 12/1 6th - 1pt

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -5.75pts

Friday, 6 May 2022

2:10 Nottingham Racing Tips (7th May)

NOTTINGHAM 2.10 

I can see a three front running types in this class 4 dash but one of them Aish 10/1 may be outclassed at this level, Tees Spirit 11/4 is another possible pacesetter but its speed figure when it won last time out was relatively slow in a class 5 race so may not be able to lead here in this higher level event and if its the shortish priced favourite then I would probably look to lay it, Cooperation 20/1 may do better when racing over further but will be staying on at the finish and could make the frame so could be worth an each way interest at the price, I will be hoping that JUST THAT LORD 6/1 who has been racing in higher class races can set the pace to this race and hold on for the win. 

Just That Lord 9/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet Tees Spirit -2pt

Total -3pts 

THIRSK 5.30 

A field of 11 runners where 7 of them are 3yo’s and its been a favourite saying of mine that 3yo’s don't win against their elders until at least June (that didn't work out right yesterday with Flaming Rib) so I will at a risk discount all 7 of them from my idea of the winner, looking at the early tissue prices Lullaby Baby 2/1 and Eruption 7/2 are forecast to be the first two in the betting they both won last time out but time wise both races were run in relatively slow times so maybe taken on with a lay bet but it will be kept to small stakes if I do lay them, I will look to lay Lady Nectar 10/1 who might be better when racing over a longer distance, Boudica Bay 18/1 has been known to lead before but hasn't been in good form lately so I'm not sure what to expect from it but could make the frame if leading but I will be having a small bet on COLEY'S KOKO 7/1 who hinted at a return to form when finishing 4th last time out, the stable hasn't had a winner for a long time now, 1244 days to be exact, but in their defence during that time they haven't sent out any runners so i hope this gets the stable a well needed winner. 

Coley's Koko 14/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets Lullaby Baby -1.1pt, Eruption +1pt, Lady Nectar +1pt

Total 0pts 

THIRSK 7.35 

I've found three possible front runners in this race and I'm hopeful that one of them could lead all the way, Harrogate 8/1 could try to lead but time wise would need to improve a few spots while Koropick 7/1 has poor trainer 0-4 and jockey 0-19 stats and its been over 2000 days since the stable last had a winner plus the horse has only won once from its 21 AW races so has to be a lay bet, Val De Travers 10/3 may not want it to be good to firm ground to show its best form, Lost My Sock might need further to show its best, i will be putting my money on MORTY 10/3 who has finished 2nd on its last 2 runs and has been found a good opportunity to go one better in this race.

Morty 10/3 Unp -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

Thursday, 5 May 2022

5:10 Ascot Racing Tips (6th May)

ASCOT 5.10 

I hope all 8 runners take part just in case I can find and each way wager, I will be looking to lay Silver Samurai 10/1 as it may need further and this race might not be run to suit it, I expect the early pace will be set by Mines A Double 9/4 who could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but if its as short priced favourite as forecast then it might be worth laying for the win part as it might do enough to still make the frame, Kimifive 14/1 would make the frame if able to reproduce its best rating from 2020 but hasn't been anywhere near that level since then, Spanish Star and Akkerinka have only 1lb between them and are my 2nd and 3rd top rated on recent ratings so could make the frame but my money will be riding on MANY A STAR 4/1 as long as the going is good to firm and the jockey does well when riding the stables older horses. 

Many A Star 4/1 1st +4pts 

Lay bets: Silver Samari +1pt, Mines A Double +1pt 

Total +6pts

RIPON 6.15 

Just 7 runners with one known front running type amongst them, I think Gullane One 8/1 might need this run for fitness and worth laying if a single figure price, the trainer Paul Midgley has two horses entered in this race where I have James Watt rated higher than Van Gerwin on my unique speed figures but jockey wise the one who does best for the stable is on the the latter so I'm a bit confused what the stable expects to happen, my money will be riding on the sole front runner DAPPER MAN 3/1 who finished third last time out and if allowed an easy lead in this race it should hold on all the way to the line for victory. 

Dapper Man 3/1 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

RIPON 6.45 

Up to 9 runners for this race which means I can look for each way wagers, I will be looking to lay Shallow Hal 13/2 who might prefer some cut in the ground and the apprentice jockey is 0-16 for the stable, I will also look to lay Twilight Secret 5/1 it hasn't any distance form on turf and slow times when racing at this distance on the AW surface at Wolverhampton while Imperium Blue 8/1 may struggle to stay the distance so I could add it to my list of lays, Fortamour and Flying Pursuit are my joint 3rd top rated so could battle to make the frame but I will be backing MARK'S CHOICE 13/2 and MANIGORDO 8/1 both will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish and I have only 1lb between them so either could win the race.

Manigordo 8/1 2nd -1pt 
Mark's Choice 7/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets: Shallow Hal +1pt, Twilight Secret +1pt

Total 0pts

Total on the day +5pts

Wednesday, 4 May 2022

7:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (5th May)

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

I can find 5 front running types in this field of 10 that have been known to lead before so it should a fast gallop from the off but with this many front runners it very often sets it up for something coming from off the pace as the front runners tire nearing the finish.

Dandy Speirpoint could be a danger from the front if its fast enough to keep up with the others here because this horse looks a better prospect over a longer distance but if getting outpaced it might not be speedy enough to pick up the leaders. 

The 10yo You're Cool would have won this race 2 or 3 years ago but seems on the decline nowadays.

The betting will be the deciding factor of whether I have any lays in this race but looking at the early tissue prices I can only see one that's forecast to be a single figure price.

As for the winner I will split my stakes between 2 horses, firstly HEY HO LET'S GO 9/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely nearing the finish and secondly TOPLIGHT 15/2 who is usually held up for a late run when there's a fast early pace and then run on strongly in the latter stages of the race, so I have hopefully got both angles covered.

Toplight 20/1 5th -1pt 
Hey Ho Let's Go 8/1 6th -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts 

Tuesday, 3 May 2022

7:30 Kempton Racing Tips (4th May)

KEMPTON 7.30 

LIGHT LILLY 2/1 this one might set the pace to this race so could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, I think a longer distance would suit it better so i'm not convinced this race will be run to suit it and if it leads and sets a slower pace it might not be able to bring its stamina into play so maybe worth the risk to lay it at the price. 

JOY CHOI 8/1 is making its debut on an artificial surface so I'm not sure what to expect but on turf it seemed to prefer some cut in the ground so it might be better suited to the Tapeta surface but I'm not sure if I could lay it at the price. 

CAMACHESS 4/1 hasn't shown much in its 3 runs over this course and distance but it has a rating which it recorded in 2021 at Lingfield that would make it my top rated and it has decent trainer stats and even better jockey stats making me think connections are expecting it to go well here. 

LIBERTY BAY 9/1 has won over this course and distance before and its best ratings are all around the same level so it would need to improve time wise to win this race but I expect it to be an outsider so its up to your risk levels if you are prepared to lay it or not. 

*TRIDEVL 22/1 has had four runs and has shown nothing worthwhile from any of them so I expect it to be the rank outsider in the betting but a lay if of value to do so. 

HEERS SADIE 8/1 has won on turf before but is 0-5 on an All-Weather surface but has made the frame in two of those five runs and its best times on turf haven't been good enough to register on my graphs so maybe worth laying. 

RAINBOW MIRAGE 4/1 is my top rated on recent, 2021/22, ratings and second top on my overall figures so should go well here as it is a course and distance winner, it has decent trainer stats but has much better jockey stats so it looks another where connections are expecting a big run. 

AMAZING AMAYA 8/1 hasn't any form at this course and the distance which might be too short for it on this fast surface and seems a much better prospect when racing on the Tapeta surface so maybe another one to lay if of value nearer the off time. 

SUMMARY: The top weight Light Lilly could set the pace to this race but I think its prospects would be better on the Tapeta surface and hasn't shown much in its two runs over this distance on this Polytrack surface, the betting will decide whether I post any lays for this race while as for the winner I will be backing CAMACHESS 4/1 who comes out top on overall figures if I use its rating from 2020 at Lingfield and it can reproduce that rating here while RAINBOW MIRAGE 4/1 is my top rated on more recent ratings and this one is figure was recorded over this course and distance and with both having positive jockey bookings they look as if both are expected to go very well here but I might split my stakes 60/40 in favour of Rainbow Mirage.

*NR

Rainbow Mirage 11/2 1st 2.2pts + EX £22.40
Camachess 4/1 2nd -0.6pts 

Lay bets Light Lily +1pt, Heers Sadie +1pt

Total on the day +3.6pts 

Monday, 2 May 2022

4:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (3rd May)

LINGFIELD 4.00 
Only 7 runners which I always hate I prefer 8 for each way purposes, there looks to be plenty of early pace in the race but it think they will be setting it up for something coming from off the pace, all 3 of the possible pacesetters, Merhoob, Impeach and Charming Kid could make the frame, if pushed I would side with Impeach as the one to do best of the trio as Merhoob may need this run for fitness and Charming Kid has been in poor form, I will look to lay Ooh Is It 9/2 who may struggle to stay the trip with a fast early pace which I expect will happen here, the top weight COUNT OTTO 11/1 has been running in better class races than this one and its best time over this course and distance from 2021 would see it back to winning ways and the jockey does have a decent 18% win ratio for the stable. 

Count Otto 11/1 1st +11pts

Total +11pts

LINGFIELD 4.35 

Another race where there looks to be plenty of early pace in the race with 4 that have been known to lead before, Bowling Russian would win this race if able to reproduce its best rating from 2020 but it hasn't been in form lately and its best from last year was well below the previous years best, Twilight Heir and Stay Smart would need to improve time wise to win this race which leaves me thinking that Swiss Pride may do best of the front runners but the trainers last winner was 28 runners and 54 days ago, I think that Pure Dreamer 9/1 may need this run for fitness after being off for 568 days and a longer trip may also be better for it so I will put it up as a lay if it stays a single figure price near the off, my money will be riding on LILKIAN 11/4 who has both good trainer and jockey stats which is usually a positive.

Lilkian 5/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Pure Dreamer -5.5pts 

Total -6pts 

Total on the day +5pts 

Sunday, 1 May 2022

1:21 Bath Racing Tips (2nd May)

BATH 1.21 

With 3 possible pacesetters in this race it should be a true run race and I think it could well be won from the front, I will look to lay Hot Hot Hot 9/2 who seems to need further to show its true potential and the jockey is a poor 1-37 for the stable which is certainly off-putting, it looks likely that Symbol Of Hope 2/1 will be the favourite and I gave it as a lay last time it ran where it finished 2nd and I will be laying it again here if I think its not value, Sir Rodneyredblood could be the one to do best of those coming from off the pace but I will be hoping that *CORONATION COTTAGE 8/1 can lead all the way in this race and the apprentice jockey has good stats and the horse has won before when returning after a break. 

*NR 

Lay bet Symbol Of Hope -1.25pts

Total -1.25pts 

BATH 2.31 

A poor turnout of just 6 runners for this class 4 dash over 5 furlongs, I'm not sure there is anything in this race that I could confidently lay although Newyorkstateofmind would have to improve time wise a good few spots to be winning the race, Get It and Hallowed Time look the ones likely to set the pace to this race and the latter could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead as its my 2nd top rated but my money will be hoping they will be setting the race up for AIRSHOW 9/4 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and its trainer has a 20% win ratio with its older horses at this course. 

Airshow 5/2 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

WINDSOR 3.26 

Not really a race to be betting in too heavily as I'm not sure what will set the pace to the race or how fast the gallop will be which means its hard to spot lays as well as bets, I can see some that might not have the race run to suit them but they are all forecast to be double figure prices but the proper betting might show me something to lay, as for backing in this race I cannot see why MAJESKI MAN 11/4 who won last time out shouldn't follow up here as that time at Salisbury last time out would see it winning this race with a bit still in hand, as this horse likes to track the leaders it should be able to spot if the leaders are not going fast and push on if needs be and I think Holly Doyle is more than capable of riding a good race from the front.

Majeski Man 9/4 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3.25pts