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Wednesday 11 September 2019

2:50 Carlisle Racing Tips (11th September)

CARLISLE 2.50 (7.7)

There's a few lightly raced sorts in this race which always limits the strength of my bets but my top 3 ratings are a few spots ahead of those that I have plenty of form to work with, Amazing Grazing is my 3rd top-rated but it can find the trip too far with a fast early pace but I'm not sure this race will be run at a frantic early pace, Autumn Flight is on a losing run of 11 which isn't ideal but this 3-year-old is my 2nd top-rated and did record its best time earlier this year at Hamilton, NAPLES BAY 6/1 is being ridden by a 3lb claiming apprentice which draws into joint top-rated on 2019 times but does have a time from 2018 that's 6lb higher, it won last time out over this c/d and has earnt the chance to take on slightly better class of horse in this race. 

Naples Bay 11/1 4th  

DONCASTER 3.00 (8.1) 

Its a shame there's only 7 runners in this Listed class dash, there's plenty of known frontrunners in the race and dark Shot and Equilateral will make sure nothing gets an easy lead, Queens Gift might be the one to do best of those coming from off the pace but I think the one that will be the favourite is TIS MARVELLOUS 7/4 and it's my top rated so if this one does get to the front it could prove hard to catch. 

Tis Marvellous 2/1 4th 

CARLISLE 3.25 (7.7) 

One of the possible pacesetters is Kolossus who is my 4th top-rated so should make sure of a fast early pace, Suitcase N Taxi is on a losing run of 16 and can find this trip too far if there is a fast early pace, if I use its best time from 2018 then Shepherds Purse comes out 2nd best, there are quite a few relatively lightly raced horses in this race so my stakes won't be at full tilt and I also expect that NINJAGO 9/2 will be quite fancied in the betting but it does look the safest option in the race. 

DONCASTER 5.20 (8.1) 

A field of 20 is nearly impossible and I'm not even going to try and narrow it down too much, Archimedes has been in cracking form winning for me twice recently but this is a harder race, Daschas, Line Of Reason, Nibras Again, Pea Shooter and Normal Equilibrium have all shown glimmers of form speed figure wise to be competitive and I might not have found the winner in the 6 mentioned and the race is best left alone. 


There's half this field of 6 that have led before and they are my 4th, 2nd and top-rated so maybe Dream Catching will do best of those coming from off the pace but maybe not able to catch the pacesetters if they don't go off too fast, Majorette comes out 2nd best but quite a few spots behind the one that will be carrying my money, if CREEK HARBOUR 6/1 can lead or contest the lead it might prove hard to catch it's being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice who is making their debut for this stable but it could push them even further ahead of the field.

Creek Harbour 7/1 4th

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