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Tuesday, 29 October 2019

6:45 Southwell Racing Tips (29th October)

SOUTHWELL 6.45 

ROSE MARMARA 12/1 hasn't any surface form in 2 AW runs but I think it might need a longer distance or a faster surface or maybe both I would look to lay it if of value so will need to be backed into single figures before it became of value.

SKEETAH 4/1 this 3yo has won at this distance on soft ground so may take to this surface, I couldn't back it but neither could I lay it but hope it doesn't upset my applecart but it looks as though it is fancied in this race.

ANGEL FORCE 14/1 has been known to lead before but mainly if nothing else wants to, it had 3 poor runs on the AW and looks out of form but it could possibly like this surface another I couldn't back or lay here.

HONEY GG 15/2 I think this one might be the pacesetter in this race from stall 10 and could go well if allowed to dictate as it is my 4th top-rated and maybe worth a small ew bet.

ARZAAK 5/1 this one can either be held up or track the leaders it's my joint top rated on recent times and has a figure 4lb higher from 2018 so it could go well here.

DAHIK 10/1 is 0-5 on the AW looks as though this surface might not suit it and is held by Honey Gg on recent form so not for me here and I would lay it if it goes into a single figure price.

PIAZON 5/1 is the other joint top rated on recent figures but the trainers 1-15 at this course and the jockeys 2-15 for this stable doesn't inspire confidence but never say never and doesn't look a value bet at the price.

QAARAAT 16/1 isn't in my top 4 on speed figures and hasn't won in its last 20 attempts which puts me off but I think it will be too big a price to lay.

SAGITTAREAN WIND 7/1 this 3yo hasn't any form at this course and races as though this distance will be too short for it to show its worth so maybe worth a lay at the price.

FILBERT STREET 18/1 another 3yo but this one hasn't shown much recently timewise and it's still a maiden after 13 runs and I can't see why it should break its duck in this race.

LE MANEGE ENCHANTE 25/1 this 1 comes out 3rd top on my speed figures despite it racing as though a faster surface or maybe further would suit it better, so should be staying on at the finish and could possibly be worth doing it each way at the price.

PURELY PROSECCO 66/1 has ran 5 times without success and they have all been poor form by it and will be an outsider in this race.

FINAL LEGACY 100/1 has only raced 4 times and shown very little, runs as though a faster surface and/or a longer trip but I think it will be too big a price to lay.

SUMMARY: With Honey Gg 15/2 likely to set the pace being my 4th top-rated quite so could be worth an ew bet and a few of these might not get into contention, Le Manege Enchente 25/1 could make the frame but its 26 run of losses put me off its chance of winning the race, Piazon could go well and does like to track the early pace and then stay on dourly at the finish but my money will be riding on ARZAAK 5/1 who hinted at a return to winning ways when finishing fast last time out to end up in 2nd spot and could go one better here.

Arzaak 6/1 7th

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