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Wednesday, 4 December 2019

5:10 Kempton Racing Tips (4th December)

David Eslworth horse trainer
KEMPTON 5.10 

ROYAL BIRTH has a time from 2018 that sees it joint 5th top-rated but might find its stamina stretched in the make-up of this race. I would look to lay it if a single figure price.

LETHAL LUNCH 11/2 hasn't any distance form on the AW to work with and I think it might be a better horse when tried over a longer distance so another to lay at the price.

ROCK ON BAILEYS 14/1 is on a losing run of fifteen races without a win but it has a reasonable record on the AW tracks but would need to improve timewise to win here but this will be its first run at this course but it doesn't look fancied according to the betting.

SILENT ECHO 9/1 hasn't any distance form on the AW to its name and it races as though a longer distance would see it do better. Another lay bet if stays at a single figure price.

HARRYS BAR 5/1 is top-rated on just this year's c/d times and the trainer/jockey stats look good until you look at the jockey's record on the stables older horses which is a poor 1-8. In addition, this horse is a fan of a fast early pace that might not happen.

LADY DANCELOT 9/2 only comes out 5th top using just 2019 c/d times but it has a time from 2018 puts it 1lb ahead in the top spot and its record on the AW tracks is 2 wins, 2 places from 5 runs. David Elsworth has good trainer 29% and jockey 40% stats to its name. 

POLYBIUS 13/2 won well last time out here but this is a step up into class 2 race. Timewise it was third-best on c/d times 2019 but I think this might be a bit too much for it and maybe worth laying the win part only on this horse.

TAWNY PORT 11/1 hasn't any recent course form to work with and it's one good time from 2018 is looking more and more like a one-off where it got towed along in a fast run race so a lay if it comes into a single figure price.

SHAMSHON 25/1 is second best on a time from Chelmsford, while its best over this c/d was way below that level and back in 2016. It's best wouldn't be enough so not for me.

TIPPERARY JACK 17/2 is a 3yo who has won twice from 4 runs on the AW tracks but all over a longer trip and things might happen too fast for it in this race and one to lay if staying in single figures.

BENNY AND THE JETS 16/1 another 3yo who might find both the class of this race and the distance too much for it to handle in this race.

SUMMARY: A nice competitive race with a few contradicting lines of form and times but I will be backing LADY DANCELOT 9/2 who has been known to lead before and it could get out quickly and then gain control of the rails and if doing so it could prove hard to catch, there's several that could contest the places but nothing I can say for sure is worth an each-way bet in the race.

Lady Dancealot 9/2 6th

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