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Monday, 4 May 2020

Mathematical Dutching

Yes, I do use dutching on my sprint races if I cannot narrow my selections down to one horse. I would rather lay other horses in the race for a larger stake in total than my win bet so if one of the dangers wins I still make a profit

When started posting this method in January it made 145.66 points profit from just the 43 days where I posted my selections. 

Posting this method in January it made 145.66 points profit from just the 43 days. 

This method is all about dutching a given number of horses in the same race all depending upon the price of the favourite. I can see the logic in this method as it entails backing multiple horses so that whichever wins you either break even or make a profit. You do not bet in any race where the favourite is less than 3.00 or 2/1 in old money. 

If the favourite is priced between 3.00 and 4.00 you back the first two horses in the betting 4.01..5.00 you dutch 3 horses... 5.01...6.00 4 horses….6.01..7.00 5 horses...7.01...8.00 6 horses...8.01...9.00 7 horses.

As the favourites win roughly 33% of all races, the 2nd favourite wins 20% and the 3rd favourite 14% so even dutching just 3 horses you should find the winner in 2 out of every 3 races. 

You would either break even or a small profit if the favourite wins but if the 3rd favourite wins at say 6.00 you make a bigger profit and those bigger priced horses should help cover your losses from the races where an outsider wins. 

Races to avoid according to the method said:


  • No maiden races. 
  • No apprentice jockey races. 
  • No handicaps with 16 runners or more. 


I have done no research myself into this method but it may be of use to someone who hasn't got the time to study form or stats. 

This method hasn't been tested beyond the original research. It is advisable to do your own research before backing with your money.



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