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Thursday 11 June 2020

12:15 Kempton Racing Tips & Lay Bets (12th June)

KEMPTON 12.15 

A field of 8 runners but I can only see the obvious lay in the race, (Celerity) who is still a maiden after 83 races, AQUADABRA 20/1 would be my top rated on its best time from Lingfield in 2019, it hasn't run here before so its always questionable if it will like this circuit the same applies to INVINCIBLE LARNE 11/2 who hasn't raced over this distance before on the AW but has a decent time from Yarmouth on good to firm ground which makes me think it might like this surface, being the only known frontrunner in the race and stall 3 isn't a bad draw and it could possibly lead all the way, my top rated on c/d times is BECKER 3/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish, I will have to dutch all 3 of them. 

Becker 3/1 1st (+3pts)
Invincible Larne 11/2 2nd (-1pt)
Aquadabra 40/1 7th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Celerity +1pt

Total: +2pts


 A competitive class 4 race where I can only find 2 lays (Zamjar + Seen The Lyte) and there's a few with a limited amount of data to work with so my stakes won't be at full strength, Three Card Trick is a possible pacesetter so stall 1 is ideal and it's my 3rd top rating but that is using a Newcastle time, it hasn't run at this course before but has to consider as at least a danger, SLOWMO 12/1 is in stall 7 which shouldn't be a problem in the make-up of this race and this one is my 2nd top-rated using a 2019 c/d time and if this one leads it could prove hard to catch so it will be carrying some of my money but I will also be backing MUTABAAHY 9/2 who is my top rated and likes to track the leaders and then finish the stronger. 

Slowmo 25/1 4th (-1pt)
Mutabaahy 8/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Zamjar +1pt, Seen The Lyte +1pt

Total: 0pts


Not a bad race for a class 6 affair although I have found 5 that I will look to lay (Jill Rose + Seneca Chief + Q Twenty Boy + Swell Song + Teepee Time) apart from Teepee Time I can't see another frontrunner but I think it will be setting the race up for a finishing type, One One Seven will be trying to stay on at the finish but it think it needs further to show its worth but could make the frame, Blackcurrant is still a maiden after 14 races but is another that could make the frame, the trainer of Furni Factors is 0-38 at this course but has a time from Newcastle that would see it in the frame if not winning this race so cannot be discarded easily but I will be backing AWSAAF 6/1 who usually stays on strongly at the finish and the jockey booking looks a positive move and makes me think connections are expecting a big run here. 

Awsaaf 6/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Seneca Chief -20pts, Jill Rose +1pt, Q Twenty Boy +1pt, Swell Song +1pt, Teepee Time +1pt

Today -17pts


This is a strange looking race where the odd two out is Pastfact and Black Isle Boy as I can neither lay or back this pair, the rest of the runners are split into 5 lays and 4 I will look to dutch in some form or the other, the lays are (Ghepardo + *Hornby + Who Told JoJo +*Jaganory + Under Curfew) I think that Hit The Beat from stall 4 could be the one to set the pace and it could feasibly hang on for the win but the trainers 0-34 record at this course put me off a little,, Bernies Boy is usually tracking the pace but has been known to lead if nothing else wants to and another that could win if it gets to the front, my top rated is PUSHKIN MUSEUM 14/1 who is usually held up for a late run at this distance and could prosper if the leaders fade close home and will be my main bet in this race and at the price it has to be an each-way bet but I might also back the two probable leaders just in case they can lead all the way.


Pushkin Museum 14/1 6th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Ghepardo -12pts, Who Told Jojo +1pt, Under Curfew +1pt

Total: -11pts

Total on the Day -26pts 

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