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Saturday 19 August 2023

2:35 Southwell Racing Tips (20th August)


Div1 6F Class6 Stakes Race 10 Runners

Both legs of this race are poor with three 3yo’s that could improve without warning but are all forecast to be double figure prices so I couldn't back any of them, I'm not sure what will set the pace which is always a worry, Flavius Titus 5/1 and Wrath Of Hector 4/1 may need further so this race might not suit them but either of them could change their usual tactics and decide to set the pace and then there stamina could come into play so I certainly couldn't lay either of them, if there's a decent early pace then Blackcurrent might not stay the distance but I expect it to be a double figure price, Thegreatestshowman 9/2 is always capable of going well when in the mood but I doesn't represent any value at the price so i will be having a small bet on DEPUTISE 10/1, it can be held up or track the leaders which could be useful in this race, the trainer has a good record at this course and the horse is dropped in class from handicaps to these lower level stakes races. 

Back DEPUTISE 10/1

Deputise 10/1 1st +10pts

Total +10pts


Div II 6F 9Runners

Once again no known front running types and also a trio of 3yo’s but none have shown enough to interest me in this race, the betting forecast makes it quite tight between the top 3 on the card although I'm not keen on Hot Scoop 6/1 and might look to lay it, Beast Of Burden 5/2 is my 2nd top rated but then there's only 2 horses that have recorded a rating recently but i will be backing COAST 10/3 who likes to track the leaders and is dropped slightly in class from handicaps here and I'm hoping that will be enough to rejuvenate it.

Back COAST 10/3 (NR) 
Lay HOT SCOOP 6/1 

Lay bet: Hot Scoop +1pt

Total +1pt


5F Class 6 13 Runners

First thing that grabbed my attention was that Shesadabber 5/2 has been forecast to be a shortish priced (9/4) favourite, it has won its last 2 races so is in tip top form but they were both on turf with good to soft ground, it hasn't won in 8 races on the AW tracks and has only made the frame in one of them and then its better form seems to be on the Polytrack surface so i will be looking to lay it, Under Curfew 13/2 also prefers the Polytrack surface so another to lay if its a single figure price. The bottom weight Birdie Bowers could set the pace to this race being my 2nd top rated horse and has finished in the frame in its last 2 races so could go well again here and might be worth an each way bet, Dalby Forest usually stays on at the finish over this distance and being my 4th top rated could make the frame if others falter while Brandy Station isn't one to discount too easily but my money will be riding on BLAZING HOT who indicated at a return to form when finishing 3rd last time out and is dropped in class to run here and most if not all of its wins have come at this level of racing. Ok so my original choice is now a non-runner which changes things and i will now be having a bet on BIRDIE BOWERS 7/1 who could now lead all the way as it has become my new top rated horse.


Birdie Bowers 8/1 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +10pts

1 comment:

goldenballs said...

Nice start after the weather break , justified the patience and discipline .

Discipline weighs ounces regret weighs tonnes .

Thank you