There's been a few big bumps along the road this month, mainly due to the fact all of the horses were not race fit but some of the lesser horses being fitter. The big priced lays that won are very unusual and friends also say they have noticed a lot more big-priced winners this month than usual, so when things will get back to normal I won’t expect many more, if any, to crop up and I have to say this month has been very stressful. The aim has always been to make a long term profit and as usual, I have delivered, the final figure for the month is a profit of 31.55 points. It is certainly not easy keeping in profit, certainly timewise, as it takes over an hour to analyse each race properly and that’s before I write my shorthand notes into something that is understandable for those that read the webpage each day. I hope you enjoy these blogs and I that some of you are making a profit in one way or another from them.
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.00
MAGIC J hasn't any form on this surface, its 3 runs on an AW surface has resulted in 2 placed efforts and I think it will need further to show its best but not enough for me to lay it.
THE DALEY EXPRESS is one of the four that has a chance of winning in this race, its back down to an official rating of 80 which was its last winning mark so it could be an each-way bet.
SAVALAS would need to improve timewise to win this race, it is a possible frontrunner but I might not be good enough to lead here.
WILD EDRIC has only 3 runs at this distance and may need further to show its best but even then it's not one I could lay but stall 9 isn't ideal in the make-up of this race.
JUMIRA BRIDGE has relatively slow times to its name and may need further or a slower surface and maybe both so one I would look to lay.
JUST THAT LORD has been known to lead and stall 3 might be ideal in this race and could be hard to catch if getting to the front.
CANFORD BAY is versatile in its racing tactics but will need a degree of luck from stall 10 but if things fall its way then it could win this race.
JUST GLAMOROUS has one run at this c/d to its name but it was a poor effort and I don't think this surface suits it as its best rating is from Lingfield so another possible lay.
ANOTHER ANGEL could battle for the lead but it may struggle to get a clear run in the early stages which may scupper its chance of winning.
TABAAHY has got both good trainer and jockey stats but has never won from this official rating and looks better in a class lower races so maybe worth a lay if any value.
SUMMARY: Quite a tricky race where I will look to lay (Jumira Bridge 2 points lay + Just Glamorous 1 point lay + Tabaahy 2 points lay) there's Magic J and Savalas that very nearly made it on my lay list, I will have to dutch 3 runners in this race, firstly JUST THAT LORD 10/1 (EW) who might be able to gain control of the rails and then be hard to pass but just in case they go off too fast and fade nearing home then I will cover the angles by backing CANFORD BAY 14/1 (EW) who could stay on strongly at the finish to take advantage at the price I will go with an each-way bet on both.
PS: the idea is to try and make a profit from each race so with 5 points on the lays and 1 point each way on the 2 win bets I will make 1 point profit as long as none of the lays win and anything more is a bonus.
Canford Bay 16/1 5th (-2pts)
Just That Lord 18/1 8th (-2pt)
Lay bets: Jumaira Bridge +2pt, Just Glamorous +1pt, Tabaahy +2pt
Total: +1pt
No comments:
Post a Comment