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Tuesday 7 July 2020

5:40 Newbury Racing Tips & Lay Bets (8th July)


RED ALERT 20/1 has 4 wins and ten placed efforts from 25 runs on turf but it has only a slow time over this distance on good to firm going and maybe better dropped in distance.

EYE OF THE WATER 18/1 has 4 wins from 12 turf runs but timewise it has something to find as it doesn't seem to like the going to be on the firm side.

JUNGLE SPEED 28/1 has only 2 runs on the AW to its name in this country but its best was achieved on slower going and a shorter trip may suit it better.

SIR TITAN 11/1 has only slow times at this distance although it has been known to lead and may prefer a longer trip to show its true merit. 

SPIRITED GUEST 7/1 has a good time from Windsor on its last run which puts it joint 2nd top-rated on times since racing resumed. 

BUCCANEERS VAULT 7/1 has a time from 2017 that would make it my 4th top-rated but has been way below that level since. 

SALUTI 11/2 will be staying on at the finish but looking at its best times it will most likely be too late to catch the leaders here so maybe worth laying the win part.

ROCK BOY GREY 8/1 hasn't been placed in its four runs on turf and will be trying to stay on at the finish but again maybe not quickly enough to catch the frontrunners. 

TREACHEROUS 9/1 has a time from Goodwood last month that makes it my top-rated, it then ran ok on the AW and has quickly switched back to turf and has been found a winning chance here.

NORMANDY BARRIERE 6/1 has won 6 races before on grass but timewise it's lacking at this level and I doubt it can win this race.

WHELAN'S WAY 5/1 is the other joint 2nd top-rated using a Windsor time but this one may not want the going to be too firm.

RASHEEQ 13/2 another that doesn't appear to like really fast ground and that is the reason its times have been relatively slow.

EQUALLY FAST 20/1 looks out of its depth in this race and it also looks a better horse over shorter distances. 

SUMMARY: When I analyse these sprint races I have to assume that the horses will all run to their usual tactics and that all horses will run to their best, which we all know doesn't always happen but there is no other way. I will look to lay (Red Alert + Rock Boy Grey + Equally Fast) I am hoping the horse I will be backing, *TREACHEROUS 9/1, will get a good tow into the race being housed next door to one of the two likely pacesetters and then stay on the stronger at the finish and ought to be a decent each-way wager.


Lay bets: Red Alert +1pt, Rock Boy Grey +1pt, Equally Fast +1pt

Total on the day +3pt

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