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Monday, 6 July 2020

3:55 Pontefract Racing Tips & Lay Bets (7th July)


The type of sprint that I hate as there are no known frontrunners in the race, it makes analyst very hard and I try to go through every scenario imagining each horse in turn leading. I will look to lay (*True Mason 1point + Shawaamekh 1point) I am not sure Walhaan will like the going, if it is good to firm, and may need further so it ought to be on my lay list but this 4-year-old could still improve also Golden Apollo won't be at happy if it is fast going and should also be on my list of lays in this race, George Bowen is my 3rd top-rated but has been in poor form lately, Watchable is my 2nd top-rated on 2019/20 times but does have a time from 2018 that would make it my top-rated by 1lb, but was nowhere near that level last year so my money will be riding on SUMMERGHAND 6/4 1point win who recorded its best time this year at Newmarket and has finished 2nd on its last 2 runs and has been found a good opportunity to go one better here. 


Summerghand 5/4 1st (+1.5pts) 

Lay bets: Shawaamekh +1pt

Total: +2.5pts  


There's a few to lay here, (Mutanaaseq 2points + Jewel Maker 2points + Sheepscar Lad 2points + Henley 2points + Avenue Of Stars 1point) as for finding the winner I will be backing *MR WAGYU 5/1 who is the only known frontrunner in the race, it has the 2nd best speed figure for 2020 and the 2nd top figure overall if using its best 2018 time so could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead and it could steal the race from the front, MUTABAAHY 8/1 has poor jockey/trainer stats but has the fastest time for 2020, EPEIUS 7/1 has an interesting jockey booking and its time from 2019 would make it my top-rated, ROUND THE ISLAND 9/1 has the fastest time overall if using just 2019/20 times and the trainer does well at this course, I will go with dutching the 4 selections with 1point win on each of them. 


Round The Island 9/1 2nd (-1pt)
Epeius 7/1 5th  (-1pt)
Mutabaahy  10/1 6th (1pt) 

Lay bets: Avenue Of Stars -3.5pts, Muntaaseq +2pts, Jewel Maker +2pts, Sheepscar Lad +2pts, Henley +2pt

Total: +2.5pts


This isn't a race I would normally bother with but there is only one known front runner in TEEPEE TIME 5/1 and it was beaten, after leading, by ALBA DEL SOLE 4/1 and on the revised weights for this race it should be much closer than the 2 lengths in their last race and I think the race should be at the mercy of these two so I will back them both.

Alba Del Sol 4/1 1st (+4pts)
Teepee Time 5/1 4th (-1pt)

Total: +3pts 

Total on the day: +8pts

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