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Sunday 23 August 2020

2:10 Ayr Racing Tips (24th August)

AYR 2.10 

RUM RUNNER hasn't any distance form and its form and breeding suggest it might need further to show its true worth.

QUEEN OF KALAHARI has a time from 2020 that is relatively slow and that might be because it doesn't like good to firm going.

ERICH BLOCH has only slow times at this distance and it either needs a longer trip or a slower surface to slow others and at 8/1 I would lay it.

NORDIC FIRE has only poor recent form and is a maiden on the turf after 7 runs and it looks like another horse that needs further to shine.

BLACK FRIDAY has only slow times on recent runs over this distance and cut in the ground or a longer trip to show its best.

WHERES MICK (3yo) has a slow time at this distance at Newcastle and maybe another that needs a longer trip to show its true merit. 

CHOOKIE DUNEDIN 13/2 has a rating of 61 from 2020 which goes up to 80 from 2019 times so has to be respected.

NUBOUGH has slow times at this distance and very poor form so far this year plus a longer trip might help.

MR WAGYU has a 64 rating for this year, 72 from 2019 and 86 in 2018 so could win this race but not on times from 2091/20 but could make the frame and it is one of 3 known front-running types.

BE PROUD 13/2 has the top rating of 68 from just 2020 which means this has to be on my shortlist of the potential winner.

JORDAN ELECTRICS has the best figure of 67 from 2019 and this frontrunner could go well here and could do enough to make the frame.

BARBARELLA (3yo) has only slow times at this distance it may like some cut in the ground and dropping back to 5 furlongs might also help.

GALLOWAY HILLS is the 3rd possible pacesetter but hasn't shown much timewise this year but a rating of 75 from 2019 would put it in the mix but that time might have been a one-off.

WADI AL SALAAM (3yo) has the 2nd highest rating of 67 from just 2020 times so could be competitive in this race.

LEZARDRIEUX (3yo) I wouldn't lay this 3yo as it could easily improve but hasn't any decent times to its name. 

SUMMARY: There is quite a few in this race that I could lay if the going is good to firm but I doubt it will be that fast if the going is good to firm then I would have a sole selection in MR WAGYU 11/2 who could lead all the way, it actually starts off as my 2nd top-rated on just 2020 times but the apprentices 5lb claim moves it to top spot, my 2nd selection CHOOKIE DUNEDIN 13/2 doesn't want the going to be too fast so could go well if the going is good and no faster, so between them, they should cover both going angles and if it's any worse than good we won't be betting.

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