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Monday, 23 November 2020

6:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tip (24th November)


WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00 

STAKE ACCLAIM 33/1 has a time from Lingfield, different surface, which wouldn't quite see it make the frame so needs to improve for the surface switch. 

ORNATE 10/1 could try to set the pace but wont be the only one and needs to improve time wise to win this race.

WATCHABLE 14/1 is my top rated on 2020 c/d times and 3rd top overall, it should get the strong pace it likes to aim at the only drawback is the stall 11 draw but could be an each way bet at the price.

ROYAL BIRTH 13/2 a versatile sort when it comes to racing tactics and is joint 2nd top rated on 2020 c/d times and joint 4th top overall.

VENTUROUS 10/3 has been in good form but hasn't any recent c/d form and its best time from 2019 would see it just outside of the frame so looks poor value and maybe worth laying.

VENTURA LIGHTNING 8/1 hasn't shown much at all this year plus I'm not sure this surface will suit it but never say never with a 3yo.

LEODIS DREAM 14/1 a possible pacesetter although stall 10 isn't ideal, it would need to improve time wise to win this race. 

LORD RIDDIFORD 10/1 this possible front runner has a decent draw in stall 3 in the make-up of this race, it hasn't shown much in its last 3 runs on grass but it is my top rated using a 2019 time and I'm hoping the switch back to the AW will see it bounce back to form.

TOP BREEZE 4/1 has the plum stall 1 draw but whether it is fast enough to get to the front I'm not quite sure and would need to improve a little time wise so maybe a lay at the price.

POP DANCER 9/2 this 3yo won last time out at this distance at Chelmsford and that time would make it 2nd top overall but its time over this c/d was relatively slow and they were both in class 4 races and this is a big step up to class 2 here? 

EL HOMBRE 12/1 only 6yo but seems to be on the decline although its best time from 2019 would make it joint 4th top overall. 

SUMMARY: I'm not sure Pop Dancer is ready for a step up of 2 classes but could go well being in good form, I will be backing 2 horses in this race firstly WATCHABLE 14/1 (EW)who is top rated on 2020 times only and could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast up front but if LORD RIDDIFORD 10/1 (EW) gets to the front and can repeat its 2019 time it could well hold on for the win so i will go with 2 each way bets at the double figure prices. 

Lord Riddiford 12/1 1st (EW) (+15pts) (Betfair SP 16.25) 

Watchable 20/1 Unp (EW) (-2pts)

Total: +13pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00

THEGREYVTRAIN 6/1 has got to improve time-wise on its best time which was recorded last year but being one of only 2 known front running types in the field is a positive for it. 

QAARAAT 5/1 this horse doesn't win as often as it should but does usually run a decent race but connections have found it an ideal opportunity here if it puts its best hoof forwards.

NAVAJO DAWN 11/1 this 3yo hasnt been in good form lately and its best run came last year at Newcastle but it was a slow run affair. 

PASSIONAL 7/2 is my 3rd top rated on just 2020 c/d times but drops down on overall figures and may need further to shine.

TROUSER THE CASH 3/1 this 3yo hasn't run over this c/d before but does have a Time from Chelmsford when it won last time out that would make it top rated but the trainers record of 0-69 at this course is off-putting. 

MYKINDOFSUNSHINE 16/1 has only poor recent form and i expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race.

QUEENS ROAD 25/1 has one slow time from its only excursion here and its best ever time from Chelmsford still wouldnt see it make the frame.

SUPERSEDED 8/1 the other known front runner but its best c/d time from 2019 wouldn't see it holding on for the win.

RED ALLURE 11/2 its win over this c/d was a slow run affair and may have flattered it and I'm not convinced this surface will suit it so maybe worth laying. 

RASPBERRY 50/1 has only poor form to its name this year and its best time was recorded it Newcastle and would need to improve a few spots to win this race.

SHEPHERDS PURSE 16/1 hasn't any recent c/d form to work with although its best from 2019 would make it my 3rd top rated overall so could go well. 

SUMMARY: A hard race to analyse but several horses have negatives of some sort against their chances of winning, I'm hoping today is a going day for QAARAAT 5/1 who has stall one to help its cause and hopefully it will stay on at the finish to pick up the early pacesetters

Qaaraat 5/1 1st +5pts (Betfair SP - )

Total: +5pts

Total on the day: +18pts

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