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Sunday, 22 November 2020

6:45 Chelmsford Racing Tips & Lay Bets (23rd November)

CHELMSFORD 6.45 

ALBUM 5/1 I don't think this is its favoured surface and needs to improve time wise to be competitive so maybe worth laying at the price.

HOLY TIBER 11/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish and is my 3rd top rated so could make the frame.

COME ON GIRL 7/2 is my top rated and should be staying on very strongly at the finish.

DAYSAQ 5/1 has no c/d form but has only slow times even when 2nd last time out and maybe worth a small lay at the price.

BLESSED TO EMPRESS 13/2 is my second top rated and is usually held up for a late run so could run into a place.

SIR HECTOR 9/1 is another hold up type but maybe too late to catch the leaders.

COASTAL MIST 14/1 has been in poor form lately and i expect it will be an outsider here SIX TILL TWELVE 11/1 has only 1 run over this c/d before, resulted in a slow time.

ELDELBAR 6/1 hasn't any form on this surface and will need to improve for the switch to win here so maybe worth a small lay.

BURNING SUN 10/1 slow times at all 3 courses with this surface so not for me.

CONCLUSION: I will look to lay (Album + Daysaq + Burning Sun) Holy Tiber and Blessed To Empress could be worth doing each way if of value but I will be relying on COME ON GIRL 7/2 who is usually held up or tracks the pace and then runs on strongly at the finish. 

Come On Girl 11/2 7th -1pt

Lay bets: Album +1pt, Daysaq +1pt, Burning Sun +1pt

Total: +2pts

CHELMSFORD 7.15 

SMOKEY 7/2 is my 3rd top rated on 2020 c/d times and 4th top overall.

BIG TIME MAYBE 22/1 a possible front runner but poor recent form and time wise outside my top 4.

MAJOR VALENTINE 28/1 poor form for a while now, could lead? but will be an outsider in this race.

KATH'S LUSTRE 6/1 possible pacesetter time wise not in my top 4 ratings so one I could lay at the price.

LETHAL ANGEL 7/1 poor recent form will try to stay on but maybe not quickly enough to win and another i would look to lay.

INDIAN PURSUIT 2/1 my top rated, track leaders and pounce inside the final furlong.

BERNIES BOY 9/1 my 3rd top rating but may need further to get back to winning ways.

JORVIK PRINCE 7/1 is my 2nd top rated on a 2019 times, possible leader who could make.
the frame.

SOLAR PARK 9/1 a versatile type and could lead but time wise wouldn't make the frame and could be worth laying if it doesn't drift in price.

JUNGLE BOOGALOO 22/1 has only poor form to its name and will be an outsider.

ORIENTAL RELATION 40/1 poor recent form and may prefer further.

CONCLUSION: I hate backing favourites but that exactly what I expect INDIAN PURSUIT 2/1 to be and looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to follow up its win last time out, it likes a good pace to aim at and with at least half the field been known to lead this race should be run to suit it.

Indian Pursuit 3/1 4th -1pt 

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: +1pt

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