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Sunday, 27 December 2020

6:05 Newcastle Racing Tips (28th December)


NEWCASTLE 6.05 

A full house of 14 entrants with just Lapidary known as a front running type but it hasn't been in good form lately but if allowed an easy lead it could do enough from the front to hold on for a place, I cant see anything to lay that's of value and as for the winner I have narrowed it down to 3 selections and the more I look the harder it is to eliminate any of my picks, GHATHANFAR 11/1 who is my 3rd top rated and won last time out and it has a positive looking jockey booking in Luke Morris so could be worth an each way bet at the double figure price on offer, my 2nd selection HERRINGSWELL 11/2 also won last time out when ridden by today's 7lb claiming apprentice and its my 2nd top rated because the horses that it beat last time out FRIENDLY ADVICE 15/2 is better in at the weights, so should therefore be my selection, plus it is being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice has a 1-3 record for this stable which moves it further clear on my figures but I am not sure if the winner did or didn't have a little bit more in hand, so it looks as though the connections of all 3 selections are expecting their horse to win or at least run well and I will be dutching them all to show a profit but I will probably tilt my stakes in favour of my top rated selection. 

NEWCASTLE 6.35 

A poor turnout of just 7 runners but 4 of them in this dash like to lead and my 2 top rated horses are possible pacesetters, Lomu has only a slow time to show for its only c/d run but its best speed figure from Lingfield would make it my 2nd top rated, Outrage has only slow c/d times and its best time from Lingfield would still see it short of what's required (that's assuming others run to their best) Mutabaahy’s best times have come on this surface but it would need to improve time wise to win this race, Another Angel likes to front run and comes out 2nd top on just 2020 c/d times and 3rd spot overall, Primos Comet will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish but maybe a fraction too late to catch the leaders, Fashion Advice is the only 3yo in the race but time wise is a bit below whats required to win this race, on my figures LONGROOM 8/1 is well weighted and comes out top rated overall and won well two runs ago over this c/d and its last run, where there was a false start and it completed a lot of the distance before pulling up, can be ignored and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch but that was a class 6 race compared to class 4 here but it looks the value call in the race but my stakes will have to be kept relatively low.

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