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Thursday 27 May 2021

2:20 Brighton Racing Tips (28th May)

I have put this race forward as they are saying the going at Brighton is good, where everywhere else has the word soft in their going, so i will watch the first race on the card before deciding whether to have a bet or not and will only bet if there isn't any cut in the ground. If you are not able to check the going beforehand then you might be better off leaving the race alone. 


TYPHOON TEN 10/3 has won once at this distance on good to firm ground, which i doubt it will get here, good going if lucky, the trainer has a 27% win ratio but is 0-7 with their older (4yo+) horses, this is a drop in class and comes out as my top rated plus they are using a useful 5lb claiming apprentice to further help their cause. 

MAMILLIUS 11/4 has only slow times recently and i had to go back to 2018 to find its best time and that time would make it my joint 2nd top rated, its been racing over further recently and this drop back in distance could help it but the lack of early pace in the race could go against its chances. 

SIR OLIVER 5/1 this one also has a 5lb claiming apprentice but if there is a good early pace then it might struggle to stay the distance and its best time is only good enough for 5th fastest but the trainer does well at this course and it could go well especially if there is a slow early pace.

BRUNEL CHARM 6/1 its one run over this distance produced a slow time which didn't register on my graphs, it also didn't record a figure on its run over this distance at Kempton but has both good trainer + jockey stats and could be dangerous if allowed to set the pace which it did before when nothing else wanted to lead. 

STREET PARADE 8/1 the trainer has a poor 6% win ratio here while the jockey is 0-39 for this stable which doesn't bode well, time wise its my other joint 2nd top rated but i think this one might be reliant on good to firm ground to its best form. 

DESERT LAND 4/1 this one sits in 4th top spot on my speed figures, it won last time out over this c/d and that's where its best figure comes from but would need to improve time wise to followup here and i think this is another horse that needs good to firm ground to show its worth. 

LATENT HEAT 14/1 hasn't any form at this distance and everything points to it wanting further to show its best form so this race might not be run to suit its racing style and I would expect it to be an outsider. 

SUMMARY: This is a hard race to analyse, R.Hannon’s top weight TYPHOON TEN 10/3 who is my top rated is dropped in class here and its only the trainers 0-7 with his older horses that makes me wonder what to expect but it will be carrying some of my money as it is one of only two in this race which I haven't got a negative against their name the other is BRUNEL CHARM 6/1 who is relatively lightly raced and if it decides to take on the front runners role it could prove hard to catch as it has been running over further and it might have the stamina to hold the others at bay but I am not confident enough to narrow it down further and the latter selection is only included in case its allowed to set the pace but if it becomes a slow early pace then virtually any of them could win so any stakes will be kept low.

Typhoon Ten 9/2 2nd -1pt 
Brunel Charm 6/1 4th -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

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