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Tuesday, 17 August 2021

1:00 Carlisle Racing Tips (18th August)

CARLISLE 1.00 

GINGER JAM 9/1 is usually held up for a late run and time wise it may get to the front in time to win this race.

GLORY FIGHTER 11/1 is one of two known front runners and is in a group of four horses all rated within 1lb of each other and if getting to the front it could lead all the way.

EAST STREET REVUE 9/2 seems to be getting slightly slower each year so I doubt this 8yo will bounce back to its best and I would lay it at the price.

SOUND REASON 9/1 can lead if needs be but may not need to here, well that's what I hope so my selection gets its own way up front and this one has poor form on good or good to firm ground.

KHABIB 6/1 is another in that closely rated group of 4 it usually likes to track the leaders and has a decent jockey booking but the trainer hasn't had a winner in the last 2 weeks.

NIBRAS AGAIN 16/1 is the 3rd of those closely rated group of 4 and will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish so may be worth an each way punt.

NAVAJO SPRING 10/1 is the final one in that group of 4 and this one is usually held up for a late run and does have good trainer/jockey stats.

GLOBAL HUMOR 11/2 may need a longer distance to show its true worth and needs to improve timewise to win the race so maybe worth laying. 

TEES SPIRIT 11/2 is a 3yo who hasn't any form on good or faster ground so is hard to assess but i think this one also may be better when raced over further.

INTERNATIONAL GRID 13/2 is another 3yo and usually races in midfield but time wise it would need to improve to win this race but never say never with 3yo’s.

KOROPICK 11/1 has a time from Musselburgh that would make it my top rated but that time is beginning to look like a fluke time. 

SUMMARY :If I was sure Koropicks time was trustworthy it would be winning this race a shade cosily but I'm not going to rely on it, so I will be backing 2 horses to cover the angles, firstly GLORY FIGHTER 11/1 (EW) who could be the one to set the pace to the race and could lead all the way but would need to bounce back to form, secondly I will be backing NIBRAS AGAIN 16/1 (EW) who usually tracks the leaders and then run on or stay strongly in the closing stages and it has decent/good trainer/jockey stats, so I will be having 2 each way wagers. 

Glory Fighter 11/1 2nd +1.75pts
Nibras Again 28/1 4th -2pts

Lay bet East Street Revue +1pt

Total +0.75pts 

BATH 1.40 

CHERISH 2/1 would need to improve time wise but its best time was recorded this year over this course and distance and it is in cracking form so could improve again.

ZULU ZANDER 12/1 usually likes to track the leaders but even its best time from 2020 wouldn't be enough for it to win this race so maybe worth laying.

PINK FLAMINGO 8/1 is one of the 3 known front runners in this race and could go ok from the front but maybe not good enough to win this race but an each way bet could pay dividends. 

THEGREYVTRAIN 7/1 this front runner got caught on the line on Monday but it does better on the AW than on turf so I don't expect it to win here and i would lay it at the price.

GLAMOROUS FORCE 6/1 can run in midfield or be held up for a late run and comes out fourth top on my figures and could make the frame if others falter.

MOONSHINER 11/2 is a 3yo that is my top rated on just 2021 times which it recorded at Yarmouth and likes to track the leaders ready to pounce late on.

CORONATION COTTAGE 12/1 is the 3rd possible pacesetter and may do best of the 3 and could go well if able to reproduce its best 2020 time so maybe be an each way punt.

ATYAAF 9/1 likes to track the front runners but time wise it would need to improve quite a few spots and i doubt this race is within its reach so maybe worth laying.

SHANI 14/1 is another that likes to track the pacesetters and its best time from 2020 would put it in the mix but it hasn't been at that level so far this year.

PORFIN 12/1 i think this distance is a bit too short for this one to show its best and the jockeys 0-5 record for this stable doesn't inspire confidence. 

SUMMARY: There is just 2lbs between my top 3 ratings, Coronation Cottage is the likely pacesetter but its best time this year has been relatively slow compared to its best 2020 time, Shani also relies on a 2020 time to put it in my top 3 but this ones best this year has been the worst of the 3 of them so I will be putting my money on the 3yo MOONSHINER 11/2 who recorded its best time this year which is the main reason for it being my selection of the 3 of them.

Moonshiner 11/2 5th -1pt 

Total on the day -0.25pts

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