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Friday, 3 September 2021

1:00 Kempton Racing Tips (4th September)

KEMPTON 1.00 

I do like the AW racing and i can see a couple of possible pacesetters in this race, I had someone ask me the other day about my fascination about early paced horses, as I only deal in sprint races speed is a more needed commodity than stamina and if i know what i think will lead I can plot out what would or could happen if every horse sticks to its usual racing tactics and also on the assumption that every horse is trying to win, if the race is run at a canter for the first 3 furlongs virtually anything can win a 2 furlong dash, Good Earth 22/1 has a decent time from Chelmsford and could go well again here but is 0-10 so far on the AW tracks so it would need to be a small each way bet, I will look to lay Tyger Bay 11/4, High Faluting 6/1, Stone Circle 7/1 and Callone 12/1 if they are single figure prices, Tipperary Jack 11/1 and Lilklan 6/1 could go well here but my money will be riding on MOUNT MOGAN 7/1 who I am hoping can lead all the way and get back to winning ways and its good trainer/jockey stats make me think connections are expecting a big run in this race. 

Mount Mogan 7/1 1st +7pts 

Lay bets Tyger Bay +1pt, High Fauting +1pt, Stone Circle +1pt 

Total +10pts

HAYDOCK 3.30 

A cracking Group 1 race and to be honest if the favourite STARMAN 10/11 runs to its best it would win this race a shade cosily and is in great form this year and this looks an easier race as it didn't quite stay the extra half a furlong on soft ground, so maybe looking for the forecast could be the way to go and any of, Chil Chil, Supremacy, Creative Force, Summerghand, Glen Sheil, Art Power and Emeraaty Ana, could fill the places and I couldn't pick one to finish second, good luck if you try to find it. 

Starman 1/1 1st -1pt 

Total -1pt

HAYDOCK 4.05 

This class 2 race has 3 known front runners and my top 2 ratings are both in that trio, Tone The Barone may not like the good to firm ground and may be worth laying if a single figure price, if they go off too fast from the front the one to prosper could be Jawwaal who comes out 3rd best using a time it recorded at Ascot earlier this year, Mountain Peak is my 2nd top rated and one of the front running types so could do enough to make the frame but i am going to side with another that could lead although JABBAROCKIE 20/1 (EW) hasn't shown much in its last 3 runs but if reproducing its best time from Musselburgh it would be winning a shade cosily but just for some insurance I am expecting, or more like hoping, its a double figure price so I can back it each way. 

Jabbarockie 22/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts

ASCOT 4.55 

If I knew what would lead this would be a nice class 2 sprint so any stakes will be kept low and I hope all 8 take part so I can have an each way bet, if there was a fast early pace I would look to lay First Edition but it might be foolish to just hope there will be plenty of early pace, Fortamour comes out top rated on just 2021 speed figures but drops to 3rd best on my overall figures, One Night Stand has only slow times so far this year but is 2nd top on a time from Windsor last year but my top rated again using a 2020 time is TINTO 16/1 (EW) who hasn't been in good form in its last 4 races but the jockey booking makes me think they are expecting a big run here and I am hoping its an each way price as long as there is 3 places up for grabs. 

Tinto 22/1 3rd -2pts 

Total -2pts

ASCOT 5.30 

A typical Saturday's racing with another very competitive race, there's plenty of early paced types so it should be a true run affair, King Of Stars 6/1 has poor trainer, 6% win ratio, and jockey, 0-4, stats which means I couldn't back it on its own in this race, the improving 3yo Mines A Double is another that could lead and has good jockey stats but is only my 3rd top rated, the bottom weight Thegreatestshowman 12/1 is my top rated but the trainer is 0-5 at this course and the jockey is 1-20 on the stables older horses, so again a bit off-putting but it might be worth an each way interest, so my top 2 ratings have negatives so maybe Mines A Double 7/4 is the one to back but i expect it will be the favourite, I cannot back anything to oppose it but I am bit reluctant to back something that is 25lbs lower rated than my top rated so I think I will leave this race alone.

Total on the day +5pts 

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