1:00 Kempton Racing Tips (4th September)

KEMPTON 1.00 

I do like the AW racing and i can see a couple of possible pacesetters in this race, I had someone ask me the other day about my fascination about early paced horses, as I only deal in sprint races speed is a more needed commodity than stamina and if i know what i think will lead I can plot out what would or could happen if every horse sticks to its usual racing tactics and also on the assumption that every horse is trying to win, if the race is run at a canter for the first 3 furlongs virtually anything can win a 2 furlong dash, Good Earth 22/1 has a decent time from Chelmsford and could go well again here but is 0-10 so far on the AW tracks so it would need to be a small each way bet, I will look to lay Tyger Bay 11/4, High Faluting 6/1, Stone Circle 7/1 and Callone 12/1 if they are single figure prices, Tipperary Jack 11/1 and Lilklan 6/1 could go well here but my money will be riding on MOUNT MOGAN 7/1 who I am hoping can lead all the way and get back to winning ways and its good trainer/jockey stats make me think connections are expecting a big run in this race. 

Mount Mogan 7/1 1st +7pts 

Lay bets Tyger Bay +1pt, High Fauting +1pt, Stone Circle +1pt 

Total +10pts

HAYDOCK 3.30 

A cracking Group 1 race and to be honest if the favourite STARMAN 10/11 runs to its best it would win this race a shade cosily and is in great form this year and this looks an easier race as it didn't quite stay the extra half a furlong on soft ground, so maybe looking for the forecast could be the way to go and any of, Chil Chil, Supremacy, Creative Force, Summerghand, Glen Sheil, Art Power and Emeraaty Ana, could fill the places and I couldn't pick one to finish second, good luck if you try to find it. 

Starman 1/1 1st -1pt 

Total -1pt

HAYDOCK 4.05 

This class 2 race has 3 known front runners and my top 2 ratings are both in that trio, Tone The Barone may not like the good to firm ground and may be worth laying if a single figure price, if they go off too fast from the front the one to prosper could be Jawwaal who comes out 3rd best using a time it recorded at Ascot earlier this year, Mountain Peak is my 2nd top rated and one of the front running types so could do enough to make the frame but i am going to side with another that could lead although JABBAROCKIE 20/1 (EW) hasn't shown much in its last 3 runs but if reproducing its best time from Musselburgh it would be winning a shade cosily but just for some insurance I am expecting, or more like hoping, its a double figure price so I can back it each way. 

Jabbarockie 22/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts

ASCOT 4.55 

If I knew what would lead this would be a nice class 2 sprint so any stakes will be kept low and I hope all 8 take part so I can have an each way bet, if there was a fast early pace I would look to lay First Edition but it might be foolish to just hope there will be plenty of early pace, Fortamour comes out top rated on just 2021 speed figures but drops to 3rd best on my overall figures, One Night Stand has only slow times so far this year but is 2nd top on a time from Windsor last year but my top rated again using a 2020 time is TINTO 16/1 (EW) who hasn't been in good form in its last 4 races but the jockey booking makes me think they are expecting a big run here and I am hoping its an each way price as long as there is 3 places up for grabs. 

Tinto 22/1 3rd -2pts 

Total -2pts

ASCOT 5.30 

A typical Saturday's racing with another very competitive race, there's plenty of early paced types so it should be a true run affair, King Of Stars 6/1 has poor trainer, 6% win ratio, and jockey, 0-4, stats which means I couldn't back it on its own in this race, the improving 3yo Mines A Double is another that could lead and has good jockey stats but is only my 3rd top rated, the bottom weight Thegreatestshowman 12/1 is my top rated but the trainer is 0-5 at this course and the jockey is 1-20 on the stables older horses, so again a bit off-putting but it might be worth an each way interest, so my top 2 ratings have negatives so maybe Mines A Double 7/4 is the one to back but i expect it will be the favourite, I cannot back anything to oppose it but I am bit reluctant to back something that is 25lbs lower rated than my top rated so I think I will leave this race alone.

Total on the day +5pts 

4:25 Newmarket Racing Tips (10th July)

NEWMARKET 4.25 

The Darley July Cup a Group 1 five furlong dash, I doubt there will be anything in at a single figure price that I would look to lay, the seven 3yos in the race are potential dangers although on the clock they would have to improve to win this race but never say never with young horses and 2 of them Creative Force and Dragon Symbol are front running types who are both drawn low so they could be potential dangers and they do have the best figures of the 3yos but they are not good enough to top my list of speed figures, Emararty Ana is another potential pacesetter and could go well from the front and has a rating that could see it possibly make the frame, Oxted is my 2nd top rated horse in the race and drawn high but I am hoping the two 3yo front runners can go fast enough to keep those drawn low in the race and then I'm hoping that from stall 4 STARMAN 9/2 can track the pacesetters and then stay on the stronger at the finish. 

Starman 9/2 1st +4.5pts

Total +4.5pts

HAMILTON 6.20

In this race I will be looking to lay Spirit Power 10/1 who has only relatively slow times mainly because it doesn't seem to like good to firm ground and also Big Thanks 5/2 who did finish 2nd last time out but in a slow run affair and it might not be able to go with the pace of Shesadabber who is the one I think will set the pace to the race and this one would maybe be carrying some of my money as it could do well with an easy lead although the trainer does have a 13% win ratio with the stables older horses he is 0-11 in the last 2 weeks and its 22 runners and 49 days since their last winner also the jockey is 1-14 for the stable which doesn't inspire any confidence so I will be backing the top weight Thrilla In Manila who has decent trainer stats and has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight and could get a good tow into the race being drawn next to the horse I think will lead. With my original selection Thrilla In Manila now being a non-runner I will be having a wager on SHESADABBER 7/2 who can now lead all the way, there is a few negatives concerning the trainer/jockey stats but I also have negatives against all the other runners as well. 

Shesadabber 9/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

HAMILTON 6.50 

Another 7 runner race so no each way bets, I will look to lay Billian 5/1, I very rarely lay 3yos but as I am backing another 3yo in this race I will go with laying this 3yo, as I think its a better horse when racing over 5 furlongs and could find this trip too far for it and I will also lay *Fendale 11/2 who hasn't shown much good form on turf for awhile now and looks poor value at the price, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Coase and Toussarok but I'm not convinced the former wants good to firm going while I think the latter will set the pace to the race but I will be putting my money on ROYAL ADVICE 9/2 who has a positive jockey booking as he has a 17% win ratio for the stable and it recorded its best time earlier this year over this course and distance and a reproduction of that time, as long as nothing else improves unexpectedly it should be winning a shade cosily.

Royal Advice 5/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Billian +1pt 

Total on the day +3.pts

2:00 York Racing Tips & Lay Bets (6th September)

YORK 2.00 

A nice looking Listed race, the going is given as good but PLEASE check before betting, I would look to lay (Judicial 9/2 as it may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace which i expect here) of the front runners I think Mum's Tipple 14/1 may do best and could do enough to make the frame, Major Jumbo and Galadriel are the other two that have been known to lead before, my 2nd top rated is Aristocratic Lady who can be held up at the back or run in the middle of the pack and could stay on for a place but my money will be riding on the 3yo STARMAN 4/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the jockey has a 21% win ratio for this stable. 

Starman 4/1 1st (+4pts) Betfair (6.2pts)

Lay bets: Judicial +1pt

Total: +5pts

MUSSELBURGH 2.55

I think this race could be won from the front and it looks set to be a fast and furious affair, I will look to lay (Indian Pursuit 9/2 + Amazing Alba 7/2 + Gorgeous Gobolina 5/1) as all 3 might need further to show their best form, if I go back to 2018 Bashiba would have every chance of winning this race but seems to be on a downward spiral at the age of nine, Henley is another that would do well on 2018 times but again going downhill aged eight and I would lay this one if in a single figures price, the same applies again to Lydiate Lady aged eight, the 3yo Maybelline 25/1 could go well and maybe worth an each way punt but I'm not confident enough to put it forward as such, my money will be riding on THE DEFIANT 9/2 who is a front runner and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch.

The Defiant 9/2 Unp (-1pts)

Lay bets: Amazing Alba (Betfair -7.6pts), Indian Pursuit +1pt, Gorgeous Gobolina +1pt 

Total: -5.6pts

MUSSELBURGH 3.30

I was going to leave this race alone until something caught my eye, the one I will be having a small bet on doesn't want fast ground so good going should be ideal but it was the price that swayed me to take the risk so I will have a small each way wager on ECONOMIC CRISIS 22/1 (EW) although the jockeys 0-18 record for the stable is off-putting.

Economic Crisis 22/1 2nd (+4.5pts) 

Total: +4.5pts

Total +3.9pts