A race with five 3yo’s and others with a limited amount of data to work with and in all honesty I should probably leave races like this alone and if I don't find value I might just do that, there is a few I could look to lay but looking at the tissue prices I don't think any of them will be of any value to do so, Michaels Choice 9/1 could be the one to set the early pace to the race but would need to improve time wise to hold on for the win, Al Asef 9/2 races as though a longer trip would suit it better but still comes out 2nd best on only this years times and 3rd best overall in this race so could run on at the finish to make the frame but isn't an each way price, Jackstar 8/1 only comes out 5th top using just 2021 times but its best from last year would make it my 2nd top rated and its another that runs on at the finish as though further would suit it better but my top rated and the one i will be backing is DYLAN'S LAD 11/2 who recorded its best course and distance time this year and that's good enough to make it top rated on both this years and overall speed figures a plus is that it also has good trainer and jockey stats.
Dylan's Lad 13/2 6th -1pt
Total -1pt
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30
This race has 10 runners and 8 of them are 3yo’s which again makes this a hard race to analyse but it does mean my stakes will be kept on the low side, Ghallya looks like one that could set the pace to the race and could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead and set its own slower than usual pace but it hasn't any form on this surface so I'm not sure what to expect but its not one I could back in this race, there are 2 other horses that have been known to lead if needs be and of that pair the top weight Aramis Grey could do best and if getting to the front it could be hard to catch as it is my 2nd top rated but admittedly its best times haven't come on this surface it does have good jockey stats so maybe the connections are expecting a big run but its one run here before resulted in a slow time which makes them both a bit of a risky proposition so I will go with the proven and put my money on ANNIE ROSE 8/1 who is my top rated on just this years course and distance times, it also has good trainer/jockey stats making me think they are expecting it to go very well in this race.
Annie Rose 17/2 4th -1pt
Total -1pt
Total on the day -2pts
No comments:
Post a Comment