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Tuesday 12 October 2021

6:00 Kempton Racing Tips (13th October)


RUN TO FREEDOM one that likes to be to the fore in the early stages but hasn't any form at this distance but won in a fast time over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton so could be a danger.

SOAR ABOVE has only relatively slow times to its name but usually likes to track the leaders but this race has plenty of early paced types so may struggle to get a good early position. 

NELSON GAY stuck out in stall 9 which isn't ideal for a front running type but time wise its notion my top 4 ratings but does have a good record on AW tracks, 3 wins and 2 placed efforts from its 5 runs. 

A SURE WELCOME has a time from Lingfield last year that would make it my 3rd top rated but its best course and distance time is fair few spots below that level. 

OPEN WIDE has a time from Chelmsford this year that makes it my 2nd top rated but stall 12 is a big ask with the make-up of this race and its best course and distance time is a lot lower 

TREACHEROUS hasn't any times for this year but its best from 2020 when it won would make it my top rated on course and distance times and it has a positive jockey booking.

FERNANDO RAH a possible pacesetter and the best draw in stall 3 of the 5 known early types in this race, it has no form on this surface but would need to improve on its best rating from Newcastle. 

LIBERATED LADY hasn't any distance form on the AW tracks and it races as though a longer distance will suit it better.

ROMAN DYNASTY is the type that likes to track the leaders and from stall 2 it might get squeezed out in the early stages and maybe further would suit it better.

ONE NIGHT STAND usually likes to track the leaders so stall 10 might not be ideal and its best time from Wolverhampton needs improving upon to win this race. 

TOMOUH a possible front running horse in stall 4 who hasn't any form over this course and distance but its best time from Lingfield this year would make it my fourth top rated horse.

NEFARIUS the fifth possible pacesetter housed in stall 6 but its best time over this course and distance needs improvement to win this race but this is its first run on this course this year. 

SUMMARY: This race good revolve around the five horses that have been known to lead before but I think they might be setting the race up for a finishing type as my top 3 rated horses all like to track the leaders or be held up, maybe Tomouh in stall 4 can get to the front and being my 3rd top rated it could be hard to catch but Fernando Rah in stall 3 wont give up the rails without a fight, A Sure Welcome my 3rd top rated has stall 1 which might not be that great in the make-up of this race and the same could apply to my 2nd top rated Open Wide who is in stall 2 while I'm hoping with all but one of the front runners drawn in stall six or lower that TREACHEROUS 12/1 (EW) from stall 7 can follow them over towards the rails and gain a good position from which to attack in the closing stages and the jockey does have a decent 27% win ratio when riding for the stable and at the price has to be given as an each way wager.

Treacherous 12/1 7th -2pts 

Total on the day -2pts 

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