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Sunday, 7 November 2021

7:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (8th November)

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

HURSTWOOD 6/1 this one usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on but it needs to improve time wise to win this race and might be better when running over a longer distance so may be worth laying at the price. 

TOMILY 10/1 is a possible pacesetter in this race and I think its stall 13 draw is an advantage and could prove hard to catch if getting in front as its my top rated on just 2021 c/d times and its best overall figure is good enough for 2nd top spot. 

PADDY POWER 10/1 comes out in 3rd top spot but I did have to go back to 2019 to find its best speed rating and usually runs on at the finish over this distance it could make the frame but I couldn't lay or back this one.

MUATADEL 13/2 doesn't make my top 4 in ratings and I'm not sure it can complete its hattrick in this race but is in fine form winning over this c/d last time out but I certainly couldn't back it but at the price I don't think its value to lay either.

MUDAWWAN 6/1 hasn't any distance form on the AW tracks and races as though a longer distance would suit it better so at the price I would look to lay it. 

JOSHUA R 66/1 has only poor form to its name recently and hasn't won before over this distance so I expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race.

THE MACKEM TORPEDO 16/1 hasn't recorded a rating over this course and distance and its best figure from Wolverhampton needs to be improved on to win this race but isn't of value to lay.

ORIENTAL LILLY 15/2 is usually held up for a late run, its best time from 2019 would make it 2nd top rated but its been a fair bit below that level in the last 2 years and may have been flattered when finishing 2nd last time out in a relatively slow run race. 

EDESSANN 12/1 hasn't been in good form recently although it has won over this distance before but i expect it to be an outsider in this race so not value to lay.

BIRDIE BOWERS 66/1 another who hasn't shown any worthwhile form recently and hasn't any wins over this distance and I think it will be a big priced outsider. 

OAKENSHIELD 14/1 usually likes to track the leaders and using its best time from 2020 over this c/d it comes out in 4th top spot, it will be trying to stay on at the finish and could make the frame if others falter. 

OUTTAKE 33/1 hasn't any form over this course and races as though further would suit it better and i think the price will reflect that. 

FIRCOMBE HALL 9/1 its one run this year over this c/d was a poor effort but its best time from last year it comes out top rated and the trainer has 2 winners in the last 2 weeks so is in good form.

ATRAFAN 12/1 sits just outside my top 4 ratings and has been in decent form lately and could possible make the frame if others falter. 

SUMMARY: I will look to lay both Hurstwood 6/1 and Mudawwan 6/1 who both race as though a longer distance would suit them better and might stay on too late here to win this race, Atrafan 12/1, Oakenshield 14/1 and Oriental Lilly 15/2 are capable of running a decent race under these conditions but I will be splitting my stake between TOMILY 10/1 (EW) who looks well drawn in stall 13 and will hopefully try to lead all the way here for the victory and it does have a decent chance of doing just that but I do have FIRCOMBE HALL 9/1 (EW) rated higher using a 2020 course and distance time and this one showed a return to form might be nigh after finishing 3rd last time out on turf, so I will back both of them with each way bets to cover the angles.

Fircombe Hall 9/1 EW 2nd +1.25pts
Tomily 10/1 Unp -2pts 

Lay bets: Hurstwood +1pt

Total on the day +0.25pts  

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