7:30 Kempton Racing Tips (16th March)

KEMPTON 7.30 

MOHAREB 16/1 has a time from Lingfield in 2020 that would make it my 4th top rated in this race and is one of two known front runners so could go well and might make the frame.

YAZAMAN looks likely to be a big outsider in this race and hasn't won on the AW from its 5 attempts and slow times at 3 different courses so not for me. 

LITTLE BOY BLUE might find this distance a bit too far for it especially with the fast early pace I'm expecting here and another outsider. 

AROUSING won well last time out in a fast run race and a repeat of that speed figure would see it follow up in this race being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice here so I expect it will be the favourite.

COUNT OTTO hasn't been in the best of form on its latest runs it is my 3rd top rated but I'm not convinced it likes this right-handed course. 

SECRET HANDSHEIKH is another of the possible pacesetters but needs to improve time wise to win this race plus it might need this run for fitness after a 5 month break from racing.

PRINCE OF ABINGTON this one is my 4th top rated and the apprentices 7lb claim could push it up to 2nd top spot but its another that I think will need this race for fitness. 

TYGER BAY won last time out after finishing 2nd all 3 runs before that win but those races were in lower class affairs and I fear it might get out-classed at this level so one to lay. 

GOOD HUMOR I expect this one to be a double figure price and it races as though a longer distance would suit it much better so a lay if it is a single figure price.

IDOAPOLOGISE is versatile with its racing tactics and can lead if needs be but hasn't been in form lately and I expect it to be a biggish price. 

PUERTO DE VEGA won in class 4 and ran well in defeat when 2nd in this class of race so ought to go well again in this race. 

BOBBY ON THE BEAT I expect this one will be an outsider as it looks outclassed at this level although it can produce good ratings in lower class affairs.

SUMMARY: I will look to lay Tyger Bay 9/2 who might be outclassed at this level and looks poor value for winning a relatively slow run lower class race, Puerto De Vega ran well at this level last time out and is only 2lbs from being top rated so could go well but AROUSING “evens” won very nicely last time out and has been found the ideal opportunity to follow up in this race but do expect it to be the favourite but a winners a winner. 

Arousing 5/6 9th -1pt 

Lay bet Tyger Bay +1pt 

Total 0pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

MILLION REASONS has only slow times recently, maybe the going has been on the slow side of standard, it could go well again here but the handicapper might have it in his grasp but I couldn't back or lay this one. 

I KNOW HOW hasn't shown much time wise since 2019 but its best even from then wouldn't win this race but if there's not a fast early pace it could go well.

FIRCOMBE HALL if I go back to 2020 then this one is my top rated and might be the safest option in this race.

ATRAFAN is fairly consistent year to year with its rating but needs a bit more to win this race but never say never with the make-up of this race. 

BOMB SQUAD has poor recent form and I think it will be a bit of a shock if this one wins this race although it has won over this distance before so never say never.

DUE A WIN it could struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early gallop but this race might be ok for it to keep something in reserve for the finish. 

JUNGLE INTHEBUNGLE has poor form to its name and another that struggles to stay this distance in a true run race so never say never with this one although I think it will be an outsider. 

RED ALLURE comes out 3rd best on my figures and that's despite me thinking its better on the Polytrack surface so could make the frame but maybe not good enough for the win.

TARNHELM hasn't shown much time wise for quite a while now and I expect it to be a biggish outsider. 

SUMMARY: A strange race mainly due to the lack of known front running types, something has to lead but how fast the early pace will be I've got no idea, I can only see Red Allure 15/2 of value that I can lay, I will be having a small wager on FIRCOMBE HALL 8/1 who is usually held up but I hope it doesn't deploy those tactics if its a slow early pace but with a decent gallop it could come with a late run to grab the spoils.

Fircombe Hall 8/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Red Allure +1pt 

Total 0pts

Total on the day 0pts

7:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (14th December)

NEWCASTLE 7.00 Div I

A poor poor race split into two divisions and to be honest I cannot find much to write about most of the runners, I couldn’t find anything worthwhile laying as they are all double figure prices in the early betting for this race but something did catch my eye in this race and that is ABSOLUTE DREAM 5/2 who won last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here as far as I can see it looks the most likely pacesetter to the race and if getting to the front it ought to prove very hard to catch. 

Absolute Dream 4/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.30 Div II 

This second division looks the poor relation in the battle of two poor races and the fact that there isn't any known front running types in this race I need to tread carefully, I would normally, without a second thought, propose to lay Tantastic who doesn't really stay the distance if there’s a decent or fast early pace but that might not matter in this race but the fact its still a maiden after eighteen races means I will probably lay it to a smaller amount as long as its a single figure price, Kilconquar 2/1 is my top rated on just 2021 c/d times and looks my selections biggest rival, but drops to 2nd top on my overall figures behind FIRCOMBE HALL 3/1 who won last time out and has been found a good chance to follow up here.

Fircombe Hall 10/3 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

Total on the day -2pts

7:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (8th November)

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

HURSTWOOD 6/1 this one usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on but it needs to improve time wise to win this race and might be better when running over a longer distance so may be worth laying at the price. 

TOMILY 10/1 is a possible pacesetter in this race and I think its stall 13 draw is an advantage and could prove hard to catch if getting in front as its my top rated on just 2021 c/d times and its best overall figure is good enough for 2nd top spot. 

PADDY POWER 10/1 comes out in 3rd top spot but I did have to go back to 2019 to find its best speed rating and usually runs on at the finish over this distance it could make the frame but I couldn't lay or back this one.

MUATADEL 13/2 doesn't make my top 4 in ratings and I'm not sure it can complete its hattrick in this race but is in fine form winning over this c/d last time out but I certainly couldn't back it but at the price I don't think its value to lay either.

MUDAWWAN 6/1 hasn't any distance form on the AW tracks and races as though a longer distance would suit it better so at the price I would look to lay it. 

JOSHUA R 66/1 has only poor form to its name recently and hasn't won before over this distance so I expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race.

THE MACKEM TORPEDO 16/1 hasn't recorded a rating over this course and distance and its best figure from Wolverhampton needs to be improved on to win this race but isn't of value to lay.

ORIENTAL LILLY 15/2 is usually held up for a late run, its best time from 2019 would make it 2nd top rated but its been a fair bit below that level in the last 2 years and may have been flattered when finishing 2nd last time out in a relatively slow run race. 

EDESSANN 12/1 hasn't been in good form recently although it has won over this distance before but i expect it to be an outsider in this race so not value to lay.

BIRDIE BOWERS 66/1 another who hasn't shown any worthwhile form recently and hasn't any wins over this distance and I think it will be a big priced outsider. 

OAKENSHIELD 14/1 usually likes to track the leaders and using its best time from 2020 over this c/d it comes out in 4th top spot, it will be trying to stay on at the finish and could make the frame if others falter. 

OUTTAKE 33/1 hasn't any form over this course and races as though further would suit it better and i think the price will reflect that. 

FIRCOMBE HALL 9/1 its one run this year over this c/d was a poor effort but its best time from last year it comes out top rated and the trainer has 2 winners in the last 2 weeks so is in good form.

ATRAFAN 12/1 sits just outside my top 4 ratings and has been in decent form lately and could possible make the frame if others falter. 

SUMMARY: I will look to lay both Hurstwood 6/1 and Mudawwan 6/1 who both race as though a longer distance would suit them better and might stay on too late here to win this race, Atrafan 12/1, Oakenshield 14/1 and Oriental Lilly 15/2 are capable of running a decent race under these conditions but I will be splitting my stake between TOMILY 10/1 (EW) who looks well drawn in stall 13 and will hopefully try to lead all the way here for the victory and it does have a decent chance of doing just that but I do have FIRCOMBE HALL 9/1 (EW) rated higher using a 2020 course and distance time and this one showed a return to form might be nigh after finishing 3rd last time out on turf, so I will back both of them with each way bets to cover the angles.

Fircombe Hall 9/1 EW 2nd +1.25pts

Tomily 10/1 Unp -2pts 

Lay bets: Hurstwood +1pt

Total on the day +0.25pts