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Monday, 20 December 2021

5:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (21st December)

NEWCASTLE 5.30 

GOOD EARTH 9/2 hasn't won in 17 previous runs on an artificial surface and looking as though longer distance will suit it better this is one that might be worth looking to lay at the price. 

MUTABAAHY 5/1 has average jockey stats and is maybe the stable's second string especially when its stablemate could feasibly lead all the way, so this one might be better over further and maybe one to lay. 

TERUNTUM STAR 10/1 has poor trainer, 3%, and jockey, 0-6, stats and it is still winless on an artificial surface and races as though a longer distance would suit better and it is one that I would look to lay if its a single figure price. 

UBAHHA 6/1 is a 3yo who is versatile with its racing tactics and that includes leading, the apprentice jockey is 1-2 for the stable so it looks a positive jockey booking and it could lead here as there is not any other known pacesetters in the race and could have an easy lead here. 

TANASOQ 8/1 has a time it recorded in October over this course and distance, which would give it a chance to get back to winning ways here, the jockey has a 25% win ratio for the stable making me think they are expecting a big run here. 

FOR PEATS SAKE 9/1 has a speed figure that puts it in my top 3 ratings, it usually likes to track the leaders and could feasibly make the frame and is a course and distance winner from March earlier this year but its recent form, time wise, has been a bit below that level. 

SUGAR BABY 7/2 is usually held up for a late run, it finished 2nd last time out but that was a slow run affair so might be a shorter price than it merits plus the stable hasn't had a winner for over 180 days so I would look to lay this runner at the price. 

BRIDGETOWN 6/1 hasn't any form over this distance but did weaken over 7 furlongs so this 6 furlong trip could suit it but it does look as though further should suit it better but not a bet or a lay for me. 

SUMMARY: There are a few in this race I could look to lay, Good Earth, Mutabaahy, *Teruntum Star and Sugar Baby (by laying more than one runner you cover some of your stake as only one of them can win) UBAHHA 6/1 could be the one to set the pace to this race and could do enough from the front to win this race but i do have TANASOQ 8/1 rated a few spots higher using its best rating recorded in October when finishing 2nd and then had a break and it has had two recent runs for fitness and may now be ready to show its best.

*NR

Tanasoq 9/1 5th -1pt 
Ubahha 17/2 7th -1pt 

Lay bets Good Earth -8pts, Sugar Baby +1pt

Total on the day  -9pts

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