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Thursday 24 March 2022

8:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (25th March)


LYNN'S BOY a front running type who could go well and is 2nd top using Southwell ratings but hasn't run here before, it could go well but maybe the weight might tell, I couldn't back or lay this one. 

COWBOY SOLDIER probably needs this run for fitness and wasn't in top form when last seen on the racecourse just over 200 days ago. 

SWISS CONNECTION has been known to lead but is drawn between 2 other fast starters who might be slightly faster in the early stages so might need a degree of luck here. 

TATHMEEN going back to 2020 it would be my 2nd top rated but since then its best is 10lb below that level.

IMPRESSOR has poor trainer and jockey stats and would need to improve time wise to win this race so maybe worth taking on with a lay bet. 

MUTABAAHY always races as though this distance is a bit too short for it and I doubt it will pick up the leaders in time for the win.

BLACKCURRENT is a possible pacesetter and my top rated on 2021/22 speed figures both on this surface here and Wolverhampton and the new Southwell Tapeta surface. 

JOSHUA R has poor trainer, 0-17, and jockey 0-5, stats and always seems to be thereabouts but doesn't win very often and it might be worth laying the win part.

ELZAAL is a 16 runner maiden and needs to improve time wise to win this race and the trainer is in poor form.

NELLIE FRENCH has jockey stats of 0-17 plus the stable haven't had a winner for over 3 weeks and I expect will be an outsider. 

ROCKLEY POINT stablemate of the one above and looks there first choice, its a possible pacesetter but it was back in 2020 when it last showed its best but could make the frame. 

SUMMARY: I wouldn't try to put anyone off from backing the favourite and top weight Lynn's Boy 5/2 who won well last time out over this distance and surface but at Southwell and that speed figure is good enough for 2nd top spot on just Southwell ratings but I think it will represent poor value in this race, I will be looking to lay, Tathmeen 11/1 who hasn't shown much time wise since 2020, Impressor 8/1 who is 0-5 on the AW tracks and its 144 days since the stable last had a winner and the jockeys record is a poor 1-28, Joshua R 15/2 who always seems a little bit weak in the finish and the trainer is 0-17 at this course plus even today's top jockey is 0-5 for the stable also its 0-7 on the AW tracks, Elzaal 15/2 who is still a maiden after 16 races with 4 of those defeats being on the AW surfaces and the trainer has gone 84 days without having a winner, Rockley Point 16/1 would be a danger dropped back to five furlongs here if able to reproduce its best 2020 rating but was way below that level since that year but its best from 2021 would make it my 4th joint top rated for 2021/22 ratings, so my money will be riding on, BLACKCURRENT 13/2 who is going for the hattrick and has been found an ideal opportunity to do just that.

Blackcurrent 15/2 7th -1pt 

Lay bets Joshu R -6pts, Tathmeen +1pt

Total on the day -6pts 

1 comment:

Tony said...

Nice write up, cheers.