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Thursday, 7 April 2022

7:30 Kempton Racing Tips (8th April)

KEMPTON 7.30 

MASHAAN this ones best rating was recorded over this course and distance this year but needs to improve time wise to win this race but did win last time out so is in good form.

LIBERTY BAY would need to improve on its best time record on Tapeta but its best on Polytrack is 10lbs lower and I expect it will be an outsider. 

SILVER DOLLAR its one c/d run didn't produce a rating and would need to improve on its best Tapeta speed figure to win this race but did win last time out so in good form. 

PORFIN can find this distance too far for it in a fast run race which might not happen here with no known front running types in the race. 

GLAMOROUS FORCE has a time recorded on this surface at Lingfield which makes it my top rated on today's surface so must have some chance of winning here. 

STEELRIVER is capable of bouncing back to form without warning but has only slow recent times over this distance on this surface, I expect it to be a big priced outsider. 

CALIN'S LAD finished 2nd last time out on Tapeta and is weighted here to run closer to its victor at today's weights and must have some chance of winning if taking to this surface.

YOULIKEMEWHENIWIN has a time from 2021 on Tapeta at Wolverhampton that makes it 3rd top rated on that surface but hasn't been in form lately and another outsider. 

THE NAIL GUNNER won last time out on Tapeta and could battle with Calin's Lad again here if taking to this surface and could follow up here. 

Q TWENTY BOY my 4th top rated on Tapeta ratings, hasn't any distance form on this surface and can struggle to stay with a fast early pace so could be ok in the make-up of this race. 

SIR GREGORY has won over this course and distance this year but time wise it needs to improve to win this race. 

LADY HOLLY has ran 3 times and now entered in its 1st handicap but needs to improve on what its shown so far and I expect will be an outsider. 

SUMMARY: With no known front running types in the race its hard one to analyse properly and for that reason I cannot see anything worthwhile to lay as for the winner there is very little between Calins Lad and The Nail Gunner on their run last time out when finishing 1st and 2nd at Wolverhampton and they could win this race if taking to today's surface but there's no guarantees and the former might be better over further while the latter might be better on a faster surface so may be the one to side with of the pair while my top rated on Polytrack is Glamorous Force but the jockey is 1-25 for the stable and is 0-12 on the stables older horses which is a little off-putting, I'm not 100% sure if I should be betting in this race but after seeing the betting i think i will side with THE NAIL GUNNER 12/1 who has good jockey stats and being a 4yo it could still have some improvement to come and looks a bit overpriced in my opinion.

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