Only 6 runners with one known front running type, I will look to lay Porfin 7/2 who can find the distance too far with a fast early pace which will most likely happen here and looks better on the Tapeta surface, Firenze Rosa who likes to track the leaders is my 3rd top rated while the top weight Twilight Secret starts off as my top rated and I think it will be a short priced favourite but I will take a punt with backing CHAMPAGNE SUPANOVA 5/1 who is the one I think will set the pace to the race and when I take of the apprentices 5lb claim it takes the top spot on my figures so I'm hoping it can lead all the way and the apprentice jockey hasn't ridden for the stable on the AW tracks before but on turf is two wins from two rides so it will be carrying my money.
Champagne Supanova 13/2 3rd -1pt
Lay bet Porfin -5.5pts
Total -6pts
SANDOWN 5.35
I can only see one front running type in this race so if Glamorous Breeze 14/1 is allowed an uncontested lead it might do enough to make the frame or maybe even better so cannot be dismissed as the possible winner, I will look to lay Impeach 9/2 who might need a longer distance before it shows its best form and it was a slow time when it finished 2nd and might have been flattered by that run and therefore represents poor value in this race, Chipstead likes to track the leaders and could be an each way possibility in this race, Four Adaay 6/1 is my top rated using just 2022 ratings and usually runs in midfield before staying on nearing the finish, BEYOND EQUAL 12/1 would need to improve on what its shown so far this year but has a rating from Newmarket in 2021 which would see it track the early pace and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish and the jockeys record is 1-3 for the stable and at the price as a type of insurance I am able to back it each way.
Beyond Equal 16/1 4th -2pts
Total -2pts
Total on the day -8pts
1 comment:
Unlucky for a place @ 4/1 with beyond equal slowly away and finishing like the proverbial express for 4th.
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