Quite a complex class 2 conditions race where there is 2 known front running types and another that has been known to lead when nothing else wants to, I'm not sure if there will be anything of value to lay but the betting will be the deciding factor on that issue, Mutafawwig 4/1 hasn't run over this distance on the AW tracks so this distance might be a bit too short for it and may also need this run for fitness and I will look to lay it if of value to do so but be warned the trainer does quite well at this course with a 19% win ratio here with their older horses, but that still means 4 out of 5 runners get beaten, First Folio has a rating from on turf that would make it my top rated but this is its first venture on an artificial surface so maybe a watching brief for future races, Ayr Harbour has a rating over this course and distance that wouldn't be good enough to win this race but its best rating from Lingfield would make it my top rated on any AW surface but I'm not sure its good enough to win at this level, the only 3yo in the race WILLEM TWEE 6/1 is on an upward curve and merits this step up in class and its last run which was on good to soft ground can be ignored, it usually races in midfield or track the leaders and from the favoured stall 1 draw it should be able to get a good early position from which to attack from nearing the finish.
Willem Twee 6/1 2nd -1pt
Lay bet Mutafawwig -3.5pts
Total -4.5pts
KEMPTON 8.30
This race is quite poor even for a class 6 affair where only 4 of the 12 runners have ran well enough to have a recorded speed figure rating, if Rainbow Sign 15/2 is a single figure price near the off I will be looking to lay it as it might need further to show its best form and the same applies to Fact Or Fable 15/2 neither have good trainer/jockey stats but the former is 0-42 at this course. My 4th top rated is Magicinthemaking who will be trying to stay on nearing the finish but I suspect too late for the win but could possibly make the frame, Manettino has a decent rating on the Tapeta surface but slow times from 2 runs on this surface and another that I might look to lay but being a 3yo it would be a small lay if any, Twentysharesofgrey is my 2nd top rated using a Lingfield rating but hasn't run over today's course and distance before so not sure what to expect but it will need to improve for the switch to this surface to beat WE’RE REUNITED 16/1 (EW) if this one runs to its best, its the only one in the field that has been known to run from the front so despite being in stall 10 it could still get to the front or at least dispute it in the early stages and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch and at such a big price it has to be an each way punt.
We're Reunited 33/1 Unp -2pts
Lay bets Manettino +1pt, Fact Or Fable +1pt, Rainbow Sign +1pt
Total +1pt
Total on the day -3.5pts
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